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FouLLine

Tim Lincecum 2013 Outlook

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We all remember how Lincecum came onto the baseball scene with his unique delievery and electric arm. He had become a fantasy staple and was one of the best pitchers in the game.

The 2 time Cy Young (and World Series) winner last year at 28 easily had his roughest season of his career last year. The K's were still there but his WHIP, ERA, and BAA all suffered imensely.

Ultimately Lincecum was moved to the pen in the playoffs where he flourished. Did he iron out the kinks that were causing him problems as a starter in his playoff run out of the pen?

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We all remember how Lincecum came onto the baseball scene with his unique delievery and electric arm. He had become a fantasy staple and was one of the best pitchers in the game.

The 2 time Cy Young (and World Series) winner last year at 28 easily had his roughest season of his career last year. The K's were still there but his WHIP, ERA, and BAA all suffered imensely.

Ultimately Lincecum was moved to the pen in the playoffs where he flourished. Did he iron out the kinks that were causing him problems as a starter in his playoff run out of the pen?

Baseball is a funny game sometimes or perception about performance, I owned him for part of the season (the rough part) and watched him in some other starts as well and watched him in the playoffs. He still was somewhat all over the place in the playoffs, he kind of just got away with it, during the regular season, he didnt, he would have the high-stress inning and couldnt get out of it.

The one thing I kind of like in 2013 is the fact he is pitching for his contract, Lincecum has rolled the dice pretty much every year, going year to year instead of signing a "safe" deal that gave up arb and maybe some FA years like we see many guys doing. Last year was the only year that the next years contract had pretty much been decided because he signed a 2-year deal last spring. Maybe its just that little edge he needed, not sure, maybe Im grasping for a reason to want to buy on him. Unfortunately, have a lot of NL West fans in my league, almost half are Giants fans, so his value in my league is probably less than most.

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Always liked Lincecum, but I think I would need to see some uptick in velocity before buying on him in pre-season. He hasn't proven to this point that he can be a dominant pitcher without those extra mph that he used to have.... although he's still good for a bunch of k's.

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Baseball is a funny game sometimes or perception about performance, I owned him for part of the season (the rough part) and watched him in some other starts as well and watched him in the playoffs. He still was somewhat all over the place in the playoffs, he kind of just got away with it, during the regular season, he didnt, he would have the high-stress inning and couldnt get out of it.

The one thing I kind of like in 2013 is the fact he is pitching for his contract, Lincecum has rolled the dice pretty much every year, going year to year instead of signing a "safe" deal that gave up arb and maybe some FA years like we see many guys doing. Last year was the only year that the next years contract had pretty much been decided because he signed a 2-year deal last spring. Maybe its just that little edge he needed, not sure, maybe Im grasping for a reason to want to buy on him. Unfortunately, have a lot of NL West fans in my league, almost half are Giants fans, so his value in my league is probably less than most.

Yeah I noticed this too last year.... He would start a game off 3 IP 4 K 0 H 1 BB cruising along then in the 4th or 5th inning, the wheels came off and he'd give up 3 - 4 runs.

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I don't see how anybody will be able to draft Lincecum with confidence next year. His stats that have been key to his success over the years, BB's and K's, are both trending in the wrong direction. If you go back to 2009, his K's have decreased every year, going from 261 to 231 to 220 before bottoming out last year at 190 last year. His BB's are also gooing up every year, going from 68 to 76 to 86 before hitting 90 last year. If Lincecum can't reverse these trends, it will be another lost year.

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I would say he is worth the gamble since he will fall in drafts this yer but I have to think in each draft one guy(atleast) will take him way too high for me.

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His mechanics are breaking down, he can't stay on top of the ball consistently anymore. Name value will keep him out of my draft.

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I want to nab him because if he gets "it" back he will be a great value, but he just lost whatever "it" was. Its hard to think a two time, back to back, cy young could fall off so fast. One of two things need to happen:

1) The velocity comes back

or

2)He learns to pitch with his reduced velocity since last year he did have that ONE inning. Most importantly, when he did hit that, bump he could not fool anyone for the last out.

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He's someone I'm probably not going to have. Trending downward enough for even me to notice not to make a move for him. He needs to learn how to be a pitcher and not a thrower. If he was someone who was going to drop to a $15 (in standard league) play, I would take that gamble, but otherwise, not so sure.

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I don't think he's quite reached the avoid list yet. I would probably take him at #146 ADP (MDC) and as a #3 starter.

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12 W, 4 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, strong K rate, but overall K's will depend on how deep he pitches into games.

The floor is pretty low though, and I don't know if he will ever sniff his ceiling again. Big risk.

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I don't think he's quite reached the avoid list yet. I would probably take him at #146 ADP (MDC) and as a #3 starter.

This is exactly what I was going to post...100% agree.

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Coming off of his postseason experience, I actually wonder if an Eckersley-like (or Kerry Wood as a more recent example) shift to closing duties isn't in Tim's future. Avoids the multiple inning problem, and frees him up to just throw his best stuff out there for a few batters. He still has the ability to generate a good amount of K/9.

As far as this season goes, I'm likely not to pay quite as much as it will take to get him, especially if it's a traditional roto "no bench" league where there's no way to keep him as an "inactive" member of your team if he struggles again. I love him as a source of cheap Ks if he falls, but expect in most leagues there's going to be at least on person betting more on him for a comeback on name value alone.

FWIW, Timmy's 2012 splits:

1st half:

3-10, 6.42 ERA, 1.583 WHIP

2nd half:

7-5, 3.83 ERA, 1.343 WHIP

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Would you trust Lincecum's 2013 season over drafting a Jordan Zimmerman or count ona young arm like Matt Harvey?

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Would you trust Lincecum's 2013 season over drafting a Jordan Zimmerman or count ona young arm like Matt Harvey?

I'd count on a young arm or overdraft for Zim. I have no faith at all in Lince to bounce back.

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He cut his hair and with the eliminated weight I believe that the strain on his body will decrease and he will be able to perform at CY level again :D

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He cut his hair and with the eliminated weight I believe that the strain on his body will decrease and he will be able to perform at CY level again :D

From the RW news page:

Tim Lincecum said Friday that he gained eight pounds over the offseason.

Lincecum did lots of resistance training and now tips the scales at an even 170 pounds. The Giants asked the righty to gain weight over the winter, hoping that it would get his velocity and results back to what they once were. Lincecum posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 186 innings during his disappointing 2012 campaign.

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Drafted him as my #5 starter, willing to take the risk and hopefully the reward

I would take him at my #4 or 5 starter I think the risk is clearly worth the reward there. If he sucks, then its not a huge lost loosing a number five starter. I dont think he will ever come back to his former dominant fantasy level, but I think he could be good because he still will get the Ks. I would not mind a 3.5 ERA and 200 Ks from a number 4 or 5 starter.

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Drafted him as my #5 starter, willing to take the risk and hopefully the reward

I would take him at my #4 or 5 starter I think the risk is clearly worth the reward there. If he sucks, then its not a huge lost loosing a number five starter. I dont think he will ever come back to his former dominant fantasy level, but I think he could be good because he still will get the Ks. I would not mind a 3.5 ERA and 200 Ks from a number 4 or 5 starter.

I'll take Timmy over any 4-5 starter in fantasy baseball

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When I saw the picture I immediately thought of the Rick Vaughn line from Major League: "I feel like a banker in this"...

Ive said all offseason, he would be a guy I would target for a nice bounceback season, I think in my league which has several Giant fans that he might be "overvalued" based on his numbers the last year in my league, but speaking to those who arent in this position.

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