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LyondellBasell

Adrian Gonzalez 2013 Outlook

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not much to be excited about. anyone? does anyone believe in this guys power coming back?

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anyone have any insight as to what happened last year? I didn't own him and wasn't following him at all. the shoulder surgery was 2 full years ago right?

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anyone have any insight as to what happened last year? I didn't own him and wasn't following him at all. the shoulder surgery was 2 full years ago right?

i owned him. he sucked. he was such a powerless dog. when they traded him to LA he was quoted saying the green monster robbed him of a buncha HR. then he went onto continue sucking in LA. he just fails to inspire any confidence in me. that said, if anyone is big on him, i'd love to know why b/c i'm thinking you may be able to get him in the third, which could provide a huge return if a resurgence does happen.

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It is hard to be optimistic when examining his trends. I realize he's a guy that might rebound but there's risk in taking him even in the 3rd round as he wasn't particularly close to being in the top 36 players last year. I'd draft him if he fell out of the top 50 but aside from that, I'm letting somebody grab him. OBP leaguers should move him down a notch.

Looking at his career (full seasons only since 2005), his 2012 was an utter fail.

K/BB, career worst

ISO, career worst

OBP, career worst

SA, career worst

O-Zone%, career high

F-Strike, career high

His collapse in BB's is almost astonishing. He had 2 separate streaks of 100+ PA's without a walk. This, from a guy who once drew 119 free passes in a year -- now reduced to 42 walks. He went from being at an elite level of patience to Vladimir Guerrero in just a few years.

Part of his BB% decline has to do with pitchers no longer fearing him as a long ball threat and justifiably so. His 2012 total of 18 HRs means he was far less of a threat than, say, Scott Hairston. It is possible throw Gonzalez a pitch over the plate, even down the middle, without paying the price these days. In previous years that was a huge mistake. Lastly, I don't have stats to back this up but watching Gonzalez for probably 500 PA's last year it was pretty rare to see him even approach the warning track on a deep fly. He was struggling to hit the ball beyond 250 feet, much less out of the yard. Most of what I saw was an opposite field singles approach with really no attempt to pull it.

There's still some bright spots. Good lineup, change of scenery, declining ADP. Should be good for 2 categories in 5x5 (BA & R) with upside in others.

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It is hard to be optimistic when examining his trends. I realize he's a guy that might rebound but there's risk in taking him even in the 3rd round as he wasn't particularly close to being in the top 36 players last year. I'd draft him if he fell out of the top 50 but aside from that, I'm letting somebody grab him. OBP leaguers should move him down a notch.

Looking at his career (full seasons only since 2005), his 2012 was an utter fail.

K/BB, career worst

ISO, career worst

OBP, career worst

SA, career worst

O-Zone%, career high

F-Strike, career high

His collapse in BB's is almost astonishing. He had 2 separate streaks of 100+ PA's without a walk. This, from a guy who once drew 119 free passes in a year -- now reduced to 42 walks. He went from being at an elite level of patience to Vladimir Guerrero in just a few years.

Part of his BB% decline has to do with pitchers no longer fearing him as a long ball threat and justifiably so. His 2012 total of 18 HRs means he was far less of a threat than, say, Scott Hairston. It is possible throw Gonzalez a pitch over the plate, even down the middle, without paying the price these days. In previous years that was a huge mistake. Lastly, I don't have stats to back this up but watching Gonzalez for probably 500 PA's last year it was pretty rare to see him even approach the warning track on a deep fly. He was struggling to hit the ball beyond 250 feet, much less out of the yard. Most of what I saw was an opposite field singles approach with really no attempt to pull it.

There's still some bright spots. Good lineup, change of scenery, declining ADP. Should be good for 2 categories in 5x5 (BA & R) with upside in others.

I think context is a big issue with the walks. all those walks had a lot to do with him being on the Padres.

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I think context is a big issue with the walks. all those walks had a lot to do with him being on the Padres.

Somewhat, yes. Other half may be because he isnt as feared a power hitter anymore...

Last year with the Padres 13.4 Walk Rate

First year with the RSox 10.6

This past year? 6.1.

I would like to think he could get it back up to a 10 walk rate with the Dodgers. But that decline in power may also be a reason that Pitchers are challenging him more. If he can find his power, maybe he takes advantage of the more hittable pitches he will see in that lineup with the support he has around him...

Or maybe his power is really gone...

To point. He had 20 IBB in 2011, Last year? Only 5.

Folks, Pitchers are just not as scared of him anymore....

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in the recent cbs analysts draft he went 17th overall. pretty shocking. ahead of the likes of cargo, pedroia, kinsler, wright, encarnacion.

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in the recent cbs analysts draft he went 17th overall. pretty shocking. ahead of the likes of cargo, pedroia, kinsler, wright, encarnacion.

excellent-mr-burns.jpg

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I think context is a big issue with the walks. all those walks had a lot to do with him being on the Padres.

Yes, for sure the suckitude of the Padres is part of the equation on is BB rate. But he used to be a 40 HR hitter while being pitched around regularly. That, by itself, instills some level of trepidation for the opposing pitcher. 18 HR's AND not drawing many walks doesn't really have the same impact. This implies that hurlers are pitching to him a lot more because he isn't hitting it out anymore.

His O-Zone% spike would also indicate his approach has changed. Up from 23.1% to 37.3%. That's a big increase.

Bottom line is I do think there's a decent shot at a rebound but he comes with a lot uncertainty. Even though I might regret it, I won't be drafting him at his ADP.

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Is he going to be keep his RF eligibility for this year? He played enough games there last year, so I would assume so just curious.

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I dont buy him as a first-round guy anymore. I would go with Justin Upton again over him if it comes down to it, and I had to deal upton last season because of his ineptness

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in the recent cbs analysts draft he went 17th overall. pretty shocking. ahead of the likes of cargo, pedroia, kinsler, wright, encarnacion.

It looks like CBS analysts draft picks are as good as their advice!

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Is he going to be keep his RF eligibility for this year? He played enough games there last year, so I would assume so just curious.

Yes he will qualify at outfield this year. He will only play 1b for the Dodgers though so he wont qualify next year.

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Was thinking of moving this guy in the offseason, but I'm holding on and hoping for a rebound. Not sure what the hell happened this past year. He was a completely different hitter for some reason.

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He went done hill fast fast on the home run front after that Home Run Derby thing season before last. Maybe that event really does screw up a hitter's swing and it isn't an old wife's tale.

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Prince Fielder laughs at that notion

The power decline was pretty alarming but the thing that worried me most was the sudden shift in his approach. Hopefully a new year with a new team(wasn't he unhappy in Boston?) can spell big things for him this year.

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Ah but he shifted his approach right after that home run derby as I recall. Could be wrong but the local announcers noticed it right away too.

He seemed happy enough in Boston and was really close with Ortiz and seemed in shock when he heard he was traded. Not that I think of the word happy and A-Gon together, He kind of talks in a monotone like a robot and seemed to spend all his time looking at "tapes" lost in his own little batting analysis world. Seems he over thinks things more than anything else and so when he suddenly slumps he gets into the "fix" way too much and tampers with this and that endlessly.

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In looking at A-Gonz, three possibilities exist:

1. Being in Fenway got into his head - it is death on LH hitters who don't play wall-ball with the Monster.

2. He was hurt, and hid the injury

3. His skills started to decline - which is hard to believe at age 29.

If he's hurting - then I'd be concerned whatever ails him is still there (because no one came forth since). The one area that could explain a power outage is if the shoulder (initially an issue in the 2010-11 offseason) is still balky. If it is, though, no one's talking - so it's hard to confirm. If it's skills decline, well geez, it's a little early. It's why I do think his approach got completely messed up, and that added fuel to the fire (but hard to explain it all based on bad approach and Fenway's LH-pull sapping environment).

The one thing that can be explained easily - lineup protection is a hotly debated topic - with the overall data suggesting it does not affect overall production - it did show one area that is affected - # BB's. I think it's safe to say the OBP+ days of SD were just a lineup-related mirage.

If he was going to a LH-friendly park, then I'd be optimistic on a return to his pre-BOS days. But, going to Chavez Ravine, with SD/SF on the schedule as well (Chase Field & Coors are nice, but home park + other 2 parks are killers), and the concern that his shoulder might be a chronic problem (remember it was the 2011 spectre in the preseason), I agree that the top-24 or even top-36 talk seems overly optimistic.

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In looking at A-Gonz, three possibilities exist:

1. Being in Fenway got into his head - it is death on LH hitters who don't play wall-ball with the Monster.

2. He was hurt, and hid the injury

3. His skills started to decline - which is hard to believe at age 29.

If he's hurting - then I'd be concerned whatever ails him is still there (because no one came forth since). The one area that could explain a power outage is if the shoulder (initially an issue in the 2010-11 offseason) is still balky. If it is, though, no one's talking - so it's hard to confirm. If it's skills decline, well geez, it's a little early. It's why I do think his approach got completely messed up, and that added fuel to the fire (but hard to explain it all based on bad approach and Fenway's LH-pull sapping environment).

The one thing that can be explained easily - lineup protection is a hotly debated topic - with the overall data suggesting it does not affect overall production - it did show one area that is affected - # BB's. I think it's safe to say the OBP+ days of SD were just a lineup-related mirage.

If he was going to a LH-friendly park, then I'd be optimistic on a return to his pre-BOS days. But, going to Chavez Ravine, with SD/SF on the schedule as well (Chase Field & Coors are nice, but home park + other 2 parks are killers), and the concern that his shoulder might be a chronic problem (remember it was the 2011 spectre in the preseason), I agree that the top-24 or even top-36 talk seems overly optimistic.

To be fair, Petco isnt a hitter friendly park at all, so his pre-Bos days might have been with a worse park for hitters, and he was able to produce. But I do agree that playing in Fenway did get to his head.

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In looking at A-Gonz, three possibilities exist:

1. Being in Fenway got into his head - it is death on LH hitters who don't play wall-ball with the Monster.

2. He was hurt, and hid the injury

3. His skills started to decline - which is hard to believe at age 29.

If he's hurting - then I'd be concerned whatever ails him is still there (because no one came forth since). The one area that could explain a power outage is if the shoulder (initially an issue in the 2010-11 offseason) is still balky. If it is, though, no one's talking - so it's hard to confirm. If it's skills decline, well geez, it's a little early. It's why I do think his approach got completely messed up, and that added fuel to the fire (but hard to explain it all based on bad approach and Fenway's LH-pull sapping environment).

The one thing that can be explained easily - lineup protection is a hotly debated topic - with the overall data suggesting it does not affect overall production - it did show one area that is affected - # BB's. I think it's safe to say the OBP+ days of SD were just a lineup-related mirage.

If he was going to a LH-friendly park, then I'd be optimistic on a return to his pre-BOS days. But, going to Chavez Ravine, with SD/SF on the schedule as well (Chase Field & Coors are nice, but home park + other 2 parks are killers), and the concern that his shoulder might be a chronic problem (remember it was the 2011 spectre in the preseason), I agree that the top-24 or even top-36 talk seems overly optimistic.

To be fair, Petco isnt a hitter friendly park at all, so his pre-Bos days might have been with a worse park for hitters, and he was able to produce. But I do agree that playing in Fenway did get to his head.

Totally agree with Petco being bad for hitters, no one could argue otherwise. It's more that people assume Fenway is a place for bats to thrive - but they have to account for the fact you have to use the Monster to be an effective LH hitter. A-Gonz's profile suggested in 2011 before he came, and after his cold April/early May he showed that approach, so we all assumed he would have no problem doing that - which is what made 2012 mystifying.

I can't believe a hitter as skilled as A-Gonz went into the tank at age 29 based on skills decline alone - which is what makes the head games AND the injury factor the only 2 that make sense. The problem is that his 2011 shoulder issues do offer a potential for power outage issues, and if it's a chronic issue, well, no one would be publicizing it (if there's no easy fix, there's no reason to publicly admit to a weakness).

If it's all based on poor approach, he's a great rebound candidate. If there is a physical issue, it didn't get fixed - in which case, well, ugh. And frankly, we have zero idea which it is. The skills decline is hard to explain by age - but was real, and not a fluke of bad luck. So it's either a change in approach (which can change), a physical issue (which one would expect would have been admitted to if it was a one-time thing), or some combo thereof. Compound the fact that 1B & OF, there are far better plays in the top 2-3 rounds, well, if someone wants him that badly, I'll probably let him fall.

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RotoRaysFan, you bring up a good point about injuries. There was talk among Boston beat reporters (not the crazy radio talk show crowd though they jumped aboard later) that the Red Sox might have started to think that shoulder injury never healed quite right and he may have re-aggravated it some. Nothing to show up on a physical but enough to make him adjust his batting stance seemingly endlessly in Boston.

And yeah Fenway could have messed with him too. Theo wanted him for years cause he was convinced he was the one LH who had the "perfect swing" for Fenway as in he could naturally hit toward the opposite field and it wouldn't mess him up to come to Boston. And he could do just that. But the trouble was he ended up banging balls off the wall for endless doubles and the media started questioning his power constantly. So he might have tried to find ways to "elevate" the ball more and that caused some of his problems.

I think both things may have figured into it and given how he seemed to over analyze everything in great detail and the media always on his case about where are the home runs all the time, it got in his head as well. I think his laid back personality wasn't a good fit for the crazy world of east coast baseball where every game can get treated like the seventh game of the World Series. LA may be a better fit for him mentally at least.

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RotoRaysFan, you bring up a good point about injuries. There was talk among Boston beat reporters (not the crazy radio talk show crowd though they jumped aboard later) that the Red Sox might have started to think that shoulder injury never healed quite right and he may have re-aggravated it some. Nothing to show up on a physical but enough to make him adjust his batting stance seemingly endlessly in Boston.

And yeah Fenway could have messed with him too. Theo wanted him for years cause he was convinced he was the one LH who had the "perfect swing" for Fenway as in he could naturally hit toward the opposite field and it wouldn't mess him up to come to Boston. And he could do just that. But the trouble was he ended up banging balls off the wall for endless doubles and the media started questioning his power constantly. So he might have tried to find ways to "elevate" the ball more and that caused some of his problems.

I think both things may have figured into it and given how he seemed to over analyze everything in great detail and the media always on his case about where are the home runs all the time, it got in his head as well. I think his laid back personality wasn't a good fit for the crazy world of east coast baseball where every game can get treated like the seventh game of the World Series. LA may be a better fit for him mentally at least.

I think the fact that they abruptly traded him also makes me wonder if they knew about a lingering injury. I know it seemed like they traded him because he didnt mesh with Valentine, but everyone knew Valentine was gone at the end of the year anyway. I don't think it was really because they wanted to rebuild, because then why would they sign someone like Dempster this offseason?

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Is he going to be keep his RF eligibility for this year? He played enough games there last year, so I would assume so just curious.

Yes he will qualify at outfield this year. He will only play 1b for the Dodgers though so he wont qualify next year.

Thank you very much.

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RotoRaysFan, you bring up a good point about injuries. There was talk among Boston beat reporters (not the crazy radio talk show crowd though they jumped aboard later) that the Red Sox might have started to think that shoulder injury never healed quite right and he may have re-aggravated it some. Nothing to show up on a physical but enough to make him adjust his batting stance seemingly endlessly in Boston.

And yeah Fenway could have messed with him too. Theo wanted him for years cause he was convinced he was the one LH who had the "perfect swing" for Fenway as in he could naturally hit toward the opposite field and it wouldn't mess him up to come to Boston. And he could do just that. But the trouble was he ended up banging balls off the wall for endless doubles and the media started questioning his power constantly. So he might have tried to find ways to "elevate" the ball more and that caused some of his problems.

I think both things may have figured into it and given how he seemed to over analyze everything in great detail and the media always on his case about where are the home runs all the time, it got in his head as well. I think his laid back personality wasn't a good fit for the crazy world of east coast baseball where every game can get treated like the seventh game of the World Series. LA may be a better fit for him mentally at least.

I think the fact that they abruptly traded him also makes me wonder if they knew about a lingering injury. I know it seemed like they traded him because he didnt mesh with Valentine, but everyone knew Valentine was gone at the end of the year anyway. I don't think it was really because they wanted to rebuild, because then why would they sign someone like Dempster this offseason?

JMHO, hes's hiding a shoulder injury. He had a procedure done in the offseason before his season in Boston to correct a problem he had late in 2011, then aggravated the HR debry leading to the change in approach. Again, JMHO. I'd draft him as a guy that can hit 20-25 HRs but with a solid BA and a ton of runs and RBI due to his lineup. Anything above that is a bonus. If in ST we see him hitting opposite field bombs and shots to dead center than we can expect more HRs.

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