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Halo Fan

"Can't miss" prospects that missed

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Ryan Anderson - Mariners aka "the Space Needle" people thought he was next Randy Johnson he was at or near the top prospects in game for a few years.

Did he even sniff the majors? Baseball-reference.com surprisingly has very limited info on him.

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Ryan Anderson - Mariners aka "the Space Needle" people thought he was next Randy Johnson he was at or near the top prospects in game for a few years.

Did he even sniff the majors? Baseball-reference.com surprisingly has very limited info on him.

Nope, he got hurt for several years, never pitched in bigs. Was a top 25 prospect 5 years in a row, top 10 in three of those five.

I can remember him being traded in our league like he was an established all star. I remember a guy owned him and ankiel thought he was so set up for run in early 00's

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How about Josh Vitters

I don't think you can count him yet. He was pretty brutal last year, but he has a full offseason now to figure out what he did wrong and how to fix it. If last year end up being his only year in the majors, then he can count. But if he comes back this year and is better, which is likely, then he won't count. The first time around in the majors is always tough for hitters. They usually don't know what to expect.

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How about Josh Vitters

I don't think you can count him yet. He was pretty brutal last year, but he has a full offseason now to figure out what he did wrong and how to fix it. If last year end up being his only year in the majors, then he can count. But if he comes back this year and is better, which is likely, then he won't count. The first time around in the majors is always tough for hitters. They usually don't know what to expect.

Thats true. You cant help but love his simple stance and short easy swing.

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What ever happened to Matt Antonelli? Wasn't he supposed to be a great second basemen for the Padres?

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Josh Barfield was supposed to be a pretty good 2B for them, too. :rolleyes:

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Josh Barfield was supposed to be a pretty good 2B for them, too. :rolleyes:

Lets not go down the list of Padres failed prospects. Everyone remembers Bush of course because he was the No.1 Overall and a troubled youth, but the reality is forever through present day (though its gotten a little better lately) the Padres have stunk in the draft.

This June it will be 20 Years since the Padres took Derrek Lee with their first round pick in 1993, he was the last Padres first rounder to play in an all star game and that was with another team, the last Padre 1st rounder to make an all star game for the Pads was Andy Benes, 1st rounder in 1988, thats 25 YEARS!!!!

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Wow, Bill Rowell. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. I played against him a few times in different tournaments, remember talking about him getting drafted and of course all the scouts were at the games.

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So many that have busted.

All of these guys were once top 25 overall prospects that didn't do much in the last 10 years. There are many more, but I was just looking for top 25 guys and I think it's difficult to call Delmon Young and Scott Kazmir busts when they have been productive major leaguers.

Andrew Miller (Ranked 14 spots higher than Clayton Kershaw in 2007 as the top lefty prospect at #10)

Reid Brignac

Andy LaRoche was ranked at 19th overall in 2007 and was supposed to be much better than older brother Adam.

Adam Miller was one of the most promising arms in the game that we never got to see. His mechanics were awful.

Jesse Foppert was going to win multiple Cy Young Awards and was once the top pitching prospect in baseball.

Ian Stewart

Brandon Wood

Casey Kotchman

Andy Marte

Here is an interesting read that I just came across: http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

This guy spent a ton of time on this. His conclusions:

  • About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.
  • Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
  • About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America‚Äôs top 20 succeed in the majors.
  • About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
  • About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)
  • About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)
  • The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100.
  • Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars. Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.
  • Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.

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Couple of others Im recalling buying into big time:

Brent Butler was a middle IF for the Cardinals, then got traded to the Rockies when Coors field was just fantasy gold. Dude was serious commodity.

Toby Hall - C- TB Rays, tore it up in minors was gonna come up in the early 00's and be middle of the order guy for the Rays and he just never got it done.

Another guy wasnt a total bust but I remember people in our league going nuts for this guy was Marcus Giles, we had a few Braves fans and he had put up an all-timer in the minors, like .300+ average 25HR 100+ RBI and like 15 Stolen bases as a second baseman. He did come up and have a good year, actually ended his career with Padres but was never that guy from that one year in the minors and was never the guy who had the .300 with 20 HR guy like he was one year.

I think sometimes those are the ones who you keep chasing are those guys who had that one or two big years of Major League success and you just cant let it go. I remember buying big time when I first got into Roto baseball on Pat Listach, he was the AL Rookie of Year (for the Brewers when they were still in AL) and he had like 55 stolen bases or something ridiculous, he was never the same, I think he played like 6-7 more years, got hurt a lot and not sure if he ever got 20 bags in a season.

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There's a lot of names mentioned I wouldn't consider misses. If a guy has a decent career i.e. Grieve, Patterson Kazmir, Kotchman, Izzy, Sizemore, Delmon, a GM would be disappointed, but not upset. Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, Andy MArte, Brandon Wood, Jeff Clement, Dallas McPherson, Andy LAroche, Ryan Harvey, Josh Booty, Brien Taylor, Matt Bush. Those guy contributed absolutely nothing to a big league team. You can't say that about Grieve and the other guys.

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I'll never forget Kevin Orie for blowing what could have been a no-no for Wood.

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Adam Rosales should count. He was supposed to be the Reds next 3B, but instead they waited for Frazier over him. He's now rotting away in the A's farm system.

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Also, I'll throw in just about any O's pitching prospect recently. For whatever reason, it seems like every young pitcher the O's have turn into absolute duds.

Erbe or Hobgood never reached the majors.

Bergesen had a good half year before Butler hit him in the leg.

Berken had one serviceable relief year and hasn't been seen from again.

Arrieta and Britton have been sketchy in the majors so far.

Hopefully in a few years, Bundy or Gausman won't end up on this list.

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Also, I'll throw in just about any O's pitching prospect recently. For whatever reason, it seems like every young pitcher the O's have turn into absolute duds.

Erbe or Hobgood never reached the majors.

Bergesen had a good half year before Butler hit him in the leg.

Berken had one serviceable relief year and hasn't been seen from again.

Arrieta and Britton have been sketchy in the majors so far.

Hopefully in a few years, Bundy or Gausman won't end up on this list.

Dont forget Hayden Penn. I owned him as a minor leaguer and was a top 100 prospect in the mid 00's.

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pitcher taylor from the yankees in the 1990s lol. has to be the one. I was a young kid like 9 years old and remember him. kris benson....the pirates and their fans acted like he was going to be roger clemens.

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pitcher taylor from the yankees in the 1990s lol. has to be the one. I was a young kid like 9 years old and remember him. kris benson....the pirates and their fans acted like he was going to be roger clemens.

Kris Benson's wife...

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Domonic Brown was the top prospect a few years ago.

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Chris Gruler 3rd overall in 2004 by Reds and blew it (arm issues)

Gary Harris

JD Drew (the hype was unreal)

Matt Bush

Josh Booty " Trouble with the curve"

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Chris Gruler 3rd overall in 2004 by Reds and blew it (arm issues)

Gary Harris

JD Drew (the hype was unreal)

Matt Bush

Josh Booty " Trouble with the curve"

Drew may have never quite lived up to the hype, but a player with a career line of .278/.384/.489 for an OPS+ of 125 who was also good defensively can hardly be called a bust.

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Chris Gruler 3rd overall in 2004 by Reds and blew it (arm issues)

Gary Harris

JD Drew (the hype was unreal)

Matt Bush

Josh Booty " Trouble with the curve"

Was Matt Bush really ever considered a "can't miss" prospect? I know he was the first overall pick, but he only got drafted because the Padres knew they were going to have trouble signing the other players they wanted to draft and he was a local boy.

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Andy Marte- I thought this kid was going to rake. So much for that.

Brandon Wood- I hate him for two reasons. One, I bought him on him big time after his season in A ball, where he had like 100 EBH. He really looked like one of those HOF caliber prospects, but just can't hit in the majors. This was ofcourse before I learned about park factors, league factors, and such. Two, because I learned about all those things thanks to Wood, I discounted Trout's performance in the minors to be below what it really was. So thanks for screwing me twice!

Jeremy Heredia- Another guy that was supposed to tear it up, because he had a smotth swing. He was Josh Vitters before there was Josh Vitters.

Ian Stewart- I saw comparisons to David Wright, and playing in Coors, I was hooked. Similar to Wood I guess, just can't hit in the majors.

Andrew Miller- When you are the primary piece that led to the trade of a HOF caliber player, and you turn into a LOOGY, you failed. I'm not even sure what happened with him. His stuff was truly the best when he was making his debut (the same year he got drafted I believe) than it ever was again. Did they change his delivery?

Fernando Martinez- A young stud in the making. I was a bit skeptical on him, because I didn't like the fact that they were promoting him without him dominating one level at a time. Also, can't seem to stay healthy.

Bubba Crosby- I remember Gammons actually picked the kid to win the MVP or something one year (I think his basis was that Giambi and Tejada were legit candidates, so Crosby had to be next. No one's accused him of being the brightest...) and he flamed out pretty badly.

Drew Henson- Like holding back Tom Brady at Michgian wasn't enough, he decided to flop at 3B as well, after being touted as the next great 3B. They didn't even go for like, "yeah, he should be a good 3B, All Star", nope, it started off with "Best 3B prospect since Schmidt".

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