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Halo Fan

"Can't miss" prospects that missed

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Players who I've had in my Fantasy farm system whom I thought would be superstars:

Jeremy Hermida

Chad Hermansen

Brent Butler

Derrick Gibson

Travis Lee

Xavier Nady

Corey Patterson

and a whole bunch of lesser names who turned into crud

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Kyle Blanks fell on his face at the major league level.

And in doing so, caused a magnitude 4.6 earthquake.

I actually think Kyle "don't call me Billy" Blanks still has a chance. His career OPS+ is 105, even with a .219 AVG over 488 AB. For now he profiles to a poor man's Carlos Pena. And he's young enough that I could see him hitting .250 / .330 / .470 in a neutral park without too much difficulty.

He either needs Alonso to fail or a trade to a team that needs a 1B (the Brewers? Marlins?).

I have my eye on him as a quick pickup in a super deep league with the knowledge that Carlos Quentin can never stay healthy, just trying to figure out who to cut for him. It looks like Blanks can still hit.

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A lot of the names here probably were never as good as some people think they were made out to be. Particularly as sabermetrics grew, you could see some players that were overrated from the past years based on more traditional thinking. Similarly, there were the guys that sabermetrics went too far on (Yusmerio Petit for one). Also realize that many prospects simply never pan out. Most prospects have at least one significant flaw and sometimes they cannot overcome it. Injuries played a large part in some (particular pitchers). Some were pretty unique situations, but at least explanable (Ankiel). And then there's arguably the most baffling one I've seen mentioned in this thread - Andy Marte. Not sure I could even explain that one. But the Atlanta Braves seemed to be well aware of his problems early on.

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Hmm, a lot of these weren't "can't miss" prospects. Also, many I don't count as busts due to injuries and possibly poor player development by the organization. Why is the Royals and Pirates have some many fails? ;)

I think Andy Marte - this guy was massively hyped for his raw power. But, in-sight, this was in the steroid era.

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Back in the 90's the Red Sox had a trio of young aces in the making - Brian Rose, Jeff Suppan and Carl Pavano. All were highly touted by the great Peter Gammons and not one of them panned out (for the Sox anyway). Pavano had a few decent years until the Yankees threw some money at him and Suppan had a decent year or two in the national league...but that's about it. The hype surrounding these studs in the Boston media was unreal. You would have thought each was the second coming of Roger Clemens.

An actual Gammons quote from December 1996 (and I'm a huge Gammons fan - he just happened to whiff on this one.... )

"Jeff Suppan, Carl Pavano, Brian Rose and Peter Munro may all be potential 15 game winners come 1998.)

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Generation K:

Bill Pulsipher

Paul Wilson

Jason Izzy

Izzy had a pretty solid run as a closer for awhile, not a total bust

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I'd like to have an "All Mets" version of this thread, please:

Bill Pulsipher

Jason Isringhausen

Fernando Martinez

Lastings Milledge

Gregg Jefferies

Paul Wilson (#1 overall draft pick)

Shawn Abner (#1 overall draft pick)

Steve Chilcott (#1 overall draft pick)

Tim Foli (#1 overall draft pick) -- career OPS+ of 64 in over 6,500 PA

Their fifth #1 overall pick in the team's history was Darryl Strawberry. So they're batting .200 when they pick 1st overall.

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This should be 5 pages of discussion on Brandon Wood.

hey don't forget the other angel great, dallas mcpherson.

o and going by the hype that proceeded kendricks call up, he's been a pretty huge disappointment as well. We were told to expect batting titles from that guy. HA!

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Most Mariners and Royals hitting top prospects seem to fit this category.

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Most Mariners and Royals hitting top prospects seem to fit this category.

Agreed. Especially for Dustin Ackley. It's hard for me to believe the guy who was the number 11 prospect in 2010 and the number 12 prospect in 2011 is doing so poorly (.224/.284/.273/.557 last I checked). His line has been looking more and more horrible every year and I don't think it's because he hasn't adapted to the major league pitching. He does strike out, but not any worse than Austin Jackson for example. In fact, last season he struck out 124 times in 607 at bats. That's not bad. Could it be that a borderline top 10 prospect is just not fit to play in the major league? He is 25 so there is hope for him, but I would definitely send him to the minors again. Maybe he can rediscover his success there.

Quick question, why is it that these prospects start out well when they're called up? Ackley, Hosmer, and Moustakas all did pretty well when they were called up. Since then all their numbers have declined steadily.

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Jurickson Profar... yes, I am a couple months early/

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Jurickson Profar... yes, I am a couple months early/

What makes you think he will be a bust? Just curious. I don't see anything that sticks out in his numbers. He hits solid average, power and can steal. Not to mention he's great defensively as seen the other night.

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Most Mariners and Royals hitting top prospects seem to fit this category.

Agreed. Especially for Dustin Ackley. It's hard for me to believe the guy who was the number 11 prospect in 2010 and the number 12 prospect in 2011 is doing so poorly (.224/.284/.273/.557 last I checked). His line has been looking more and more horrible every year and I don't think it's because he hasn't adapted to the major league pitching. He does strike out, but not any worse than Austin Jackson for example. In fact, last season he struck out 124 times in 607 at bats. That's not bad. Could it be that a borderline top 10 prospect is just not fit to play in the major league? He is 25 so there is hope for him, but I would definitely send him to the minors again. Maybe he can rediscover his success there.

Quick question, why is it that these prospects start out well when they're called up? Ackley, Hosmer, and Moustakas all did pretty well when they were called up. Since then all their numbers have declined steadily.

Because the book gets out on them and pitchers adjust and they just don't have enough talent to adjust to the adjustments.

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Jurickson Profar... yes, I am a couple months early/

What makes you think he will be a bust? Just curious. I don't see anything that sticks out in his numbers. He hits solid average, power and can steal. Not to mention he's great defensively as seen the other night.

eh, a 276 average in the minors is nothing special. That's not saying he's not gonna improve, because I'm sure he is, but right now I think a lot of us can agree, his stats aren't really impressive. Certainly not as impressive as some other #1 prospects.

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Jurickson Profar... yes, I am a couple months early/

What makes you think he will be a bust? Just curious. I don't see anything that sticks out in his numbers. He hits solid average, power and can steal. Not to mention he's great defensively as seen the other night.

eh, a 276 average in the minors is nothing special. That's not saying he's not gonna improve, because I'm sure he is, but right now I think a lot of us can agree, his stats aren't really impressive. Certainly not as impressive as some other #1 prospects.

I agree that the average isn't amazing, but .280ish isn't bad. I might be a little too high on him, but he strikes me as a guy who will be doing 20/20 or better in the future. By 23 I think he'll be something really special. That's just my opinion on it though. I agree that some #1 prospects have been better, but I wouldn't say he's destined to become a bust either. It's certainly impressive to be ranked at #1 at just 20 years old. There is room for growth at such a young age.

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