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FouLLine

Jesus Montero 2013 Outlook

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After just a "servicable" rookie year Montero will probably become some what of an after thought in fantasy drafts. But keep in mind he was a super prospect 2 years ago.

Getting traded to SEA ruined Jesus Montero for me. When he was crushing away in The Yankees farm system he was one of my favorite prospects. But hey going from the best hitters park to the worst hitters park will do that.

Montero's ceiling is very high and I'm sure he'll be a post 16th rounder.

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Terrible home park didn't really do much to interest me last year. He would have to be way later than the 16th round for me to give him a look.

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i remember a couple hot weeks last season where i ended up adding him in a shallow 10 teamer. he definitely has it in him to rake. i'll be curious to see how his supporting cast looks in the spring. kendrys will help. but honestly, i can't even name a starting nine for them ... kyle seager ... mike carp ... ackley ... brendan ryan... -----ah forget it.

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rotoworld got him for 30 HRs this year. I am done even giving any attention to the "experts" have not taken them serious in years. talk you all you guys and use rotoworld for there updates and info.

bill james is an idiot also.

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.280/18/65R/75 RBI is what I am thinking.

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.280/18/65R/75 RBI is what I am thinking.

definitely think this is the most reasonable projection ITT.

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Catcher is really deep this season. I'm just not high on him this year given the lineup he's in and the ballpark, even though the fences are being moved in. He really struggled last season, as evidenced by his .298 OBP. I expect a modest bump in numbers, but there are so many other options at catcher I would rather take a chance on.

I just wonder how longer this guy will even receive occasional starts behind the plate. From what I saw last season, Montero is about as bad as it gets defensively. I have to think this is Montero's last year of getting PT at catcher, with Zunino on his way.

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ESPN ranked him 11th for catchers. Before McCann, Napoli, Ruiz, or Pierzynski. I'd rather have all of those guys before him. Or I'd rather take Miguel Montero a round earlier.

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Safeco is moving the fences in and they do get more games @Houston this year a great hitters park for right handed hitters with that short porch. Plus when he doesn't catch he will probably DH. He will get a lot of at bats. Seattle had zero players surrounding him last year. This year they at least got Morse and Morales, and they are still rumored to be after Michael Bourn. Mariners lineup will probably be bottom 10 again but it won't be league worst like it has been the last 3 years, or for me as a Mariner fan, seemingly an eternity. I think Jesus cracks around 20 HR's at least. He will be good value in non OBP leagues. I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.

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I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.

29 walks out of a 22 year old isn't too bad. Expect that number to get better as he matures, he had an 8.5% walk rate in the minors and was constantly playing above his age group. As a catcher his batting eye will develop rapidly throughout his career.

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I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.

29 walks out of a 22 year old isn't too bad. Expect that number to get better as he matures, he had an 8.5% walk rate in the minors and was constantly playing above his age group. As a catcher his batting eye will develop rapidly throughout his career.

I know you like to be positive but 29 free passes is horrible relative to his position. He was 17th out of 18 catchers with 400 PA on BB% and last among BA qualifiers among C's. 4 of his walks were intentional and lots of others were attempts to pitch around him. It's possible he'll improve but OBP leaguers should be wary. He'd need to make a quantum leap in BB% to really make an impact.

In 5x5 he's quite interesting if he gets regular PT at DH.

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I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.

29 walks out of a 22 year old isn't too bad. Expect that number to get better as he matures, he had an 8.5% walk rate in the minors and was constantly playing above his age group. As a catcher his batting eye will develop rapidly throughout his career.

I know you like to be positive but 29 free passes is horrible relative to his position. He was 17th out of 18 catchers with 400 PA on BB% and last among BA qualifiers among C's. 4 of his walks were intentional and lots of others were attempts to pitch around him. It's possible he'll improve but OBP leaguers should be wary. He'd need to make a quantum leap in BB% to really make an impact.

In 5x5 he's quite interesting if he gets regular PT at DH.

Look at a couple of catchers who like Montero were at one time considered to be top prospects.

Buster Posey first full season 6.8%, sophomore 9.7%, last year 11.3%. He showed very solid improvement.

Matt Wieters rookie season 7.3%, sophomore 9.4%, last year 10.1%, another young catcher showing steady improvement.

So if he follows anything like these two guys he should see a 2 - 3% increase in his walk rate, which would equate to roughly 14 extra walks over 575 plate apperences.

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The 30 HR projection from RW threw me for a loop, but after doing additional research, I think there's a very good chance that Montero is a top 5 catcher this season even if he doesn't come close to that projection. Given how deep catcher is this year, and how mediocre Montero's numbers were last year, there's a good chance you can get him in the late rounds after 8-10 other catchers are already taken, which leaves plenty of room for profit.

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Very interesting article on Montero - one I find pretty encouraging as an owner in a deep keeper league.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/moving-to-catcher-will-help-jesus-montero/

Essentially the take-away is this. With all of Seattle's trades, they've got to find a way to slot Montero, Smoak, Morse, Morales, Ibanez, and others into their lineup.

So DH comes down to Montero, Morse, Morales. The luster may have completely fallen off of Smoak, but I doubt he's completely kicked to the curb. It's possible Morse plays LF, Morales DH, and Smoak at 1B, but the reality is that Montero and Ronny Paulino are the only catchers on the roster right now. Zunio is coming, but I highly doubt he's ready before mid-late summer, and I personaly don't think Paulino is stealing ABs from Montero more than once or twice a week.

But what's the point? The point is that many players struggle to adjust to being a DH. In fact, DH'ing generally leads to decreased offensive performance: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/skill_to_dh/

If we look at Montero as a C (and remove the DH ABs), his line is much, much better - especially for a 22 year old. Had Montero hit .310/.343/.498, how much differently would we view him? And it's not a function of starting at C against LHP. In fact, see below for the splits of splits:

as Catcher

33 starts vs. RHP: 0.282/0.317/0.504

21 starts vs. LHP: 0.346/0.379/0.444

as DH

44 starts vs. RHP 0.200/0.230/0.242

33 starts vs. LHP 0.265/0.315/0.402

The Ms seem intent on having him catch, which his owners should be celebrating. And the market is probably undervaluing this guy quite a bit in that light.

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hmm...

Jesus Montero had a monster day against the Reds Monday, hitting a grand slam while plating a total of six runs as part of a 3-for-3 performance.

Advice: Montero's slam came off of Wilkin De La Rosa. The Mariners' backstop is now batting .405 during Cactus League play and has a pair of homers and 10 RBI. He could be ready for a breakout season in 2013.

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In 56 games at catcher last season, he hit .310 with 10 homers and 32 RBI. At his other primary position -- DH -- Montero hit .226 with five homers and 30 RBI in 78 games. Montero proved last season he was more engaged during the games he caught, so the fact his playing time behind the plate is set to increase in 2013 should make Montero that much more interesting of a Fantasy option.

I am warming up to this kid this year.

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I agree. I think he is primed for a pretty good season, and while he might not stick at C there is no reason he won't force his way into the lineup. The problem is keeping him on the field.

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