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FouLLine

Starlin Castro 2013 Outlook

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The Cubs SS will turn 23 right before the 2013 season starts. He already has 445 games played in the bigs and carries a .297 career batting average.

He had a slight regression in terms of BA / OPS (from 2011 - 2012) but showed very nice improvement in the power department. Which will be key as he will be hitting in the heart of that Cubs lineup.

Castro showed a 40% increase in HRs and increased his XBH rate from 26.57% in 2011 to 30.10% in 2012.

Coming off back to back seasons with 22+ SBs, he looks to be a lock for 22+ steals again this year. As in 2012 Castro stole 3 more bases despite hitting 4 more HRs, 3 more 3Bs, and dropping 18 in his OBP.

Not that I'm banking on it but I don't think a .300 20 HR 30 SB season is out of question for the youngster.

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I like Starlin a lot. But so do a lot of other people. In the few mock drafts I've done I have seen him go anywhere from 23 - 38. I really couldn't pull the trigger in the top 25. Now mid 30s or so I'd be satisfied with the pick.

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Anyone worried about how his steals productions slipped so much last season? He started off in the league leaders and then disappeared completely

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Anyone worried about how his steals productions slipped so much last season? He started off in the league leaders and then disappeared completely

Im worried about that and his inability to take a walk. Hes a really detriment in leagues that count OBP or OPS.

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Anyone worried about how his steals productions slipped so much last season? He started off in the league leaders and then disappeared completely

Im worried about that and his inability to take a walk. Hes a really detriment in leagues that count OBP or OPS.

Something that may help ease that concern some is Castro more than doubled his walk rate Post All-Star Break.

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Anyone worried about how his steals productions slipped so much last season? He started off in the league leaders and then disappeared completely

Im worried about that and his inability to take a walk. Hes a really detriment in leagues that count OBP or OPS.

Something that may help ease that concern some is Castro more than doubled his walk rate Post All-Star Break.

12 walks over his first 85 games and 24 walks over his last 77 games.

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Anyone worried about how his steals productions slipped so much last season? He started off in the league leaders and then disappeared completely

Im worried about that and his inability to take a walk. Hes a really detriment in leagues that count OBP or OPS.

Something that may help ease that concern some is Castro more than doubled his walk rate Post All-Star Break.

12 walks over his first 85 games and 24 walks over his last 77 games.

One walk every 3+ games doesnt calm my nerves much. Its an improvement over the first 85 games for sure, but assuming 4AB per game, its still only a 7% walk rate which still rates him as below average, average being defined as 8.5%. That and the fact that his overall walk rate has still regressed from his rookie year (5.7% in rookie year, 4.9% in 2011, 5.2% last year), something youd anticipate being the opposite.

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ill be targeting him as my shortstop for sure in most drafts. I expect his average to be around the 310-315 range and i expect a little bit of a power surge from him as ive seen signs of it. Love the way the guy plays, if only he could stay focused and cut down the errors a bit. Ill be buying for sure especially because shortstop isnt the deepest position

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I don't worry as much about the walks, simply b/c he's shown skills to maintain a fine average inspite of his hacker approach... the SBs are my concern. To get him, you gotta invest high, and i would need the get steals back as part of my return ... i remember he was brutal for h2h category leagues in the middle of the year, he went like a 2 month stretch with hardly any steals.

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I don't worry as much about the walks, simply b/c he's shown skills to maintain a fine average inspite of his hacker approach... the SBs are my concern. To get him, you gotta invest high, and i would need the get steals back as part of my return ... i remember he was brutal for h2h category leagues in the middle of the year, he went like a 2 month stretch with hardly any steals.

Well that's because he was getting caught. He had 5 SB attempts in June, but got caught 4 times. After that, he was not stealing much until august. He came back good to end the year. That could be problem again this year. That and he was slumping at the plate in July..

But for Roto, by years end is should be good for 20 SBs and I expect his Power to keep climbing...

This could be his first 20/20 year coming up with a little over 80 RBI's, 55-60 XBH's is what i'm thinking... Hovering around a .300 BA...

Assuming progression with his power of course. I do not expect him to increase the walk rate. As he will still be a hacker...

As for OPS and OBP leagues. OBP will stay where is was in the lower .300s with hopefully a slight uptick in the slugging...

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I like Castro the ML player, but since I tend to play only in leagues that count BB and/or OBP, I've not owned him ever. I've not done all the necessary research yet, but I can see myself leaning towards Zobrist (who's highly valuable in such leagues) or even as Asdrubal Cabrera.

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His SB total is why I am dropping him a bit. But will still have him after Tulo, Hanley, and Reyes. Don't see aother SS I can put ahead of him after those 3.

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His SB total is why I am dropping him a bit. But will still have him after Tulo, Hanley, and Reyes. Don't see aother SS I can put ahead of him after those 3.

In a standard 5x5? Over Zobrist? Since he would be higher BA and more SBs. Hard to project RBI difference and Zobrist will be favored in Home runs. If for nothing, because he has a higher HR Floor... That and Zobrists OBP could likely get him more runs score again..

The Kicker is Zobrist will be able to play both SS and 2B.. At least point, I may prefer Zobrist because he has a higher overall floor and his Flexibility to your lineup. Castro would be it if your favoring Upside over Floor..

In an OBP league, its Zobrist and its not even a question..

Of course the Beauty is you can have both if you really want..

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5x5 Id be a big fan and would target him in leagues of that format. The issue with him becomes if you play in leagues that count more stats (7x7 etc), like I alluded to BB (some leagues count it),OBP, OPS, or even net steals (I play in a league with that stat). Clearly hes not helping in any league with OBP (not killing you either) and while his OPS wont kill you from SS for a guy with his power and average its dragged down considerably by that OBP. Net steals become an even bigger issue (last year) but I would anticipate that he should become more refined on the base paths and his SB% should go up. If it stays where its at (66% last year, 71% in 2011) he is right on the verge of not being a positive asset when it comes to running and as such unless he can convert more SB, he will likely be granted the ability to run less. Like I said though, Im optimistic that this is one area with some coaching he can improve, the walk issue not so much as a lot of guys arent able to come around on that.

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Yea I play 5x5 roto. I like the upside of Castro over Zobrist. They are even to me already.

Most people are with you on that. Which is why Castro's price tag will be much higher than the quietly productive Ben Zobrist.

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

I agree that his potential is huge, but for some reason I just get the feeling that he will be one of those players that doesn't get there. I think he will be a good fantasy SS this year, but I wouldnt be surprised if he didnt improve much on last year.

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

I agree that his potential is huge, but for some reason I just get the feeling that he will be one of those players that doesn't get there. I think he will be a good fantasy SS this year, but I wouldnt be surprised if he didnt improve much on last year.

Or he could be The New Hanley Ramirez?

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

I agree that his potential is huge, but for some reason I just get the feeling that he will be one of those players that doesn't get there. I think he will be a good fantasy SS this year, but I wouldnt be surprised if he didnt improve much on last year.

Or he could be The New Hanley Ramirez?

Castro has gotten benched each of the past two years by two different managers, one time for not paying attention and another time for careless errors, so yes, that does remind me of Hanley.

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

I agree that his potential is huge, but for some reason I just get the feeling that he will be one of those players that doesn't get there. I think he will be a good fantasy SS this year, but I wouldnt be surprised if he didnt improve much on last year.

Or he could be The New Hanley Ramirez?

Castro has gotten benched each of the past two years by two different managers, one time for not paying attention and another time for careless errors, so yes, that does remind me of Hanley.

Don't hate. He reminds people of Hanley because he is a young SS with a rare combination of speed and power. He might not quite be as good as Hanley but I think Hanley may have been on PEDs. Hence his crazy drop off.

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

I agree that his potential is huge, but for some reason I just get the feeling that he will be one of those players that doesn't get there. I think he will be a good fantasy SS this year, but I wouldnt be surprised if he didnt improve much on last year.

Or he could be The New Hanley Ramirez?

Castro has gotten benched each of the past two years by two different managers, one time for not paying attention and another time for careless errors, so yes, that does remind me of Hanley.

Don't hate. He reminds people of Hanley because he is a young SS with a rare combination of speed and power. He might not quite be as good as Hanley but I think Hanley may have been on PEDs. Hence his crazy drop off.

do you attribute PED use to every player who has a spike or drop off in his career?

the biggest skill Hanley has lost is arguably his wheels. he steals with much less efficiency, his BABIP fell off despite a similar batted ball profile, and he hits fewer doubles and triples.

he peaked at an early age as some players do. every human being is different. the notion that most or all hitters peak at age 27 is a fallacy.

I would say it's more likely Hanley's bad attitude (as pointed by the post you said was hating) attributed to his decline than PEDs. as some players get older, they lose bat speed but improve in their pitch recognition and understanding of pitcher/hitter dynamics. just as some pitchers never learn to pitch without dominant stuff, it's possible Hanley never learned to become a smart ballplayer and was content to coast on natural talent.

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do you attribute PED use to every player who has a spike or drop off in his career?

the biggest skill Hanley has lost is arguably his wheels. he steals with much less efficiency, his BABIP fell off despite a similar batted ball profile, and he hits fewer doubles and triples.

he peaked at an early age as some players do. every human being is different. the notion that most or all hitters peak at age 27 is a fallacy.

I would say it's more likely Hanley's bad attitude (as pointed by the post you said was hating) attributed to his decline than PEDs. as some players get older, they lose bat speed but improve in their pitch recognition and understanding of pitcher/hitter dynamics. just as some pitchers never learn to pitch without dominant stuff, it's possible Hanley never learned to become a smart ballplayer and was content to coast on natural talent.

I certainly do not attribute every player who drops off with PEDs. But it's a fair conclusion to draw given the evidence.

Was better at the major league level than the minor league level. Was being drafted either #1 or #2 overall in nearly every fantasy league at the age of 23.

Drastic drop in extra base hits and steals. Both things that stronger muscles will effect immensely.

Yes his batting average dropped and you mentioned his BABIP dropped as well. Well it makes sense that if you aren't as strong or as fast as you once were you're likely to not have as high of a BABIP.

He had a decrease at the age of 26 and an even more drastic one at 27. His age 28 season was a bit better, but still not much above an average hitter. Sure he's still an above average player but we are talking about a guy who was a coveted fantasy prize at the ages of 23, 24, 25, and 26... What happened?

To me the biggest thing is, I personally watched Hanley bulk up like crazy. When he first hit the league as a rookie he was very skinny. Then his sophomore he probably had the best season of his career and increases his HR total by over 70%!!! Which sure wouldn't be a big deal if he only hit 9 - 10 HRs as a rookie SS, but he went from 17 to 29 as a Sophomore which is regarded as the most difficult season on average for an MLB player.

Yeah I think Hanley's work ethic leaves a lot to be desired. But why was he fine for the first 5 years of his MLB career (where most guys struggle) and now is far less productive at ages 27 and 28 where most guys really start to take off career wise? PEDs is the most reasonable explanation to me.

Also the age 27 thing, let's call it "Rule 27". You've got it twisted. Rule 27 doesn't say players peak at 27, but by the age 27 they will either breakout into a player who is more like the player they will be throughout their prime (27 - 33) or just continue to be the below average major league player that they have been for the past couple of seasons.

Secondly it's not a fallacy. As it is known that every player is different and it is a "general" rule of thumb. No one has ever claimed it to be gospel. It is just 27 has more breakouts on average than other ages.

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all this analysis on castro is great, as there's many reasons not to like what we see... however, it does seem like there's a lack of burgeoning hitters who could become all out studs. Castro is one of the few. The idea he could get to 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, 90 runs, .300 from the SS position is huge. he can be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

If you think you can reach for him at what will likely be a pricey ADP and still build a solid lineup around him and stay active on the wire (like most of us will) the risk is very much worth it.

I agree that his potential is huge, but for some reason I just get the feeling that he will be one of those players that doesn't get there. I think he will be a good fantasy SS this year, but I wouldnt be surprised if he didnt improve much on last year.

Or he could be The New Hanley Ramirez?

Castro has gotten benched each of the past two years by two different managers, one time for not paying attention and another time for careless errors, so yes, that does remind me of Hanley.

Don't hate. He reminds people of Hanley because he is a young SS with a rare combination of speed and power. He might not quite be as good as Hanley but I think Hanley may have been on PEDs. Hence his crazy drop off.

I was just joking, I know he has a lot of upside and could put up a season like young Hanley, but he also might have some of the attitude and defensive problems that Hanley also has/had.

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Any new thoughts on Castro? Rotochamp composite rankings have him the 7th shortstop, with a value of 15 bucks.

To me, that seems low. He's behind Tulo, Hanley, Reyes, zobrist, Prado and Rollins

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