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FouLLine

Clayton Kershaw 2013 Outlook

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Will this be the year that Kershaw takes the best pitcher in baseball award away from Justin Verlander?

Kershaw out did Verlander last year in ERA, WHIP, and K/9. But Verlander had more Wins, IPs, and overall Ks.

Either way both of these guys are looking to be fringe first rounders who will probably be taken in the mid to early second round. I'm all about sleeping on pitchers but guys with this much talent I couldn't argue with people using an early 2nd round pick on them.

Where will you be drafting Kershaw?

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I think in 2011 I was able to nab Kershaw for about $21- and then like a moron I dealt him to the guy who overtook me for 4th place (last money slot)..... he went for $44 this year in the same league.

After two years of Lincecum-like numbers and nothing that says he's going to let up- plus a better offense if anything- I would expect him to push $45+, making him too espensive for me as a SP to draft...

He was fun to own as a $20-$25 player- but now that he's anywhere from $45-$50 (literally) he is just not worth price for the risk of one elbow or shoulder injury knocking him out for the year or an extended period of time.

Not to go off-topic, but when I think about a guy like Kershaw who is just going to be worth so much money (kind of like Strasburg, who will be getting a ton as well now that there are no caps whatsoever on him and all of that) I question how much a guy like R.A. Dickey will get in auctions when Kershaw should easily see $40, ditto to Strasburg. Because you could probably argue that Dickey is as likely (if not more so) to stay healthy and he'll still post gaudy K numbers. But will he rack up wins and keep his ERA/WHIP as pristine as it was now that he's in the East?

(Ergo, I think Dickey winds up a bargain because people will undervalue him, pitching a lot of his games in the AL East now with its reputation.)

Remember Adam Wainwright.... that's why I cannot and will not go the distance on a guy like Kershaw.

But I do think he is the best pitcher in the NL right now. I just don't want to risk one injury wrecking my year or wasting a ton of money. It's more manageable when it's a position player, believe it or not. Losing a top pitcher you bid major money on is a huge blow to anyone's chances....

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Remember Adam Wainwright.... that's why I cannot and will not go the distance on a guy like Kershaw.

I know Wainwright had/has an inverted-W, which screams TJ, but Kershaw doesn't appear to have an inverted-W or another serious flaw in his mechanics that could cause injury.

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Lets see...probationary member with only 2 posts and you want us to click on a link...no thanks.

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I've always loved Kershaw, but thought Verlander was better until I read this article.

Think the Dodgers lineup is good enough this year to make Kershaw the best? click on the link and tell me what you think.

Both are great. Kershaw's dominance at such a young age is certainly impressive. I think the comparison, like so many, is a bit unfair. They both are exceptional in their own right.
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Kershaw will be the best pitcher in baseball this season.

Bank on it: he's got the pitches, he's got the youth, and he's got the offense behind him.

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Kershaw will be the best pitcher in baseball this season.

Bank on it: he's got the pitches, he's got the youth, and he's got the offense behind him.

He's #1 in my book

Verlander close behind

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Sorry, thought it was a good article and wanted to post it.

I really just want to know what people think about Kershaw and Verlander, my draft is coming up soon.

Sorry, it wasn't intended to be a personal attack, nor a knock on people posting links. I am just always cautious of new members posting links...never know what you're going to find on the other end. There have been many spammers on these forums in the past. The fact that you are actually replying to what I posted changes my perspective. Again, sorry for the skepticism. Welcome to the forums!

As a Kershaw owner in an NL-only dynasty, I may be a bit biased, but I think he's the #1 pitcher.

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I give Verlander the edge for best pitcher in baseball because I consider the league each of them plays in. I'd take Kershaw #1 pitcher in fantasy, but Verlander #1 in real life.

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Drafting I'd give the edge to Kershaw being in the NL over Verlander. I like the idea of facing a pitcher for an easy out with it being a potential strikeout.

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I give Verlander the edge for best pitcher in baseball because I consider the league each of them plays in. I'd take Kershaw #1 pitcher in fantasy, but Verlander #1 in real life.

Also +1 for Kate Upton

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Lets see...probationary member with only 2 posts and you want us to click on a link...no thanks.

Link was legit you can always (at least on chrome / torch) inspect the element to see where it's trying to link you.

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I've always loved Kershaw, but thought Verlander was better until I read this article.

Think the Dodgers lineup is good enough this year to make Kershaw the best? click on the link and tell me what you think.

To me he is the No.1 rated P in baseball. Lots to like. Great K potential, plays on team I think could be a 95+ win team so could easily see him 20+ wins and not that he needs the help plays in more of a pitchers park and has two good pitchers parks in Petco and ATT, plus pretty lousy lineups in SF and SD plus one of the best hitters in the division (Justin Upton) now out of the division.

Where exactly you take him in a snake draft or how much you buy him from in an auction is always up for debate, but if we were drafting like my daughters softball league where there is a seperate pitchers draft, I think he would be consensus no.1.

I guess the two risks:

1. The Hip from last year, obviously like hitters, hip rotation is a big part of the pitching process, if it recurs?

2. Dodger blow up and getting caught up in that. If this blending together of stars just blows up to a toxic situation, mentally he could get caught up in that mess and have a "down" year and disappoint.

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Kershaw because he is five years younger and has a lot less mileage on his arm. Hip is concerning for sure but I don't think it will stop him this year.

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Gotta love this guy anchoring your rotation.

Re: hip issue. He missed 1 start last year due to it, but came back and made 3 after the injury:

21 IP, 23/10 K/BB (including one 5 BB game his first game after injury, which seems like an aberration), 2 ER.

Also stated in early November:

During an interview with Jim Duquette on MLB network radio, Clayton Kershaw said that his hip is fine and that he's fully healthy heading into the offseason.

Kershaw also mentioned that he's willing to listen to contract extension proposals, but hasn't yet had any conversations with the Dodgers about it. He added that his preference is to not go through arbitration, but would if he had to.

I think we have to assume that the 4+ months he's had off since October have allowed him to fully heal. I suppose there's always the chance of re-aggravation, but he's showed the ability to still pitch through it at an elite level. I wouldn't hesitate to take him around pick 15 or so, or to make him the highest paid pitcher in an auction.

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Kershaw will be the best pitcher in baseball this season.

Bank on it: he's got the pitches, he's got the youth, and he's got the offense behind him.

We will see, my bet is on Strasburg. I like Price too, but would probably take Kershaw over him when considering division and team. Then again, Price held his own last year and my thinking is he's only going to get better.

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Kershaw is the #1 arm on my board, but I can't take him in the 1st round. I just prefer to take the premium bats due to the risk of pitchers getting hurt. I know there's no science to predict injury for hitters pitchers, but personally, I'm more comfortable in taking the stud bat who will hopefully play 150-162 games.

Are the hip issues a thing of the past now? I'm not concerned right now, but it is weird for a pitcher so young to have hip problems.

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If you take a pitcher over a batter in the first round, you're gonna have a bad time, mmmkay?

Yes. First round bats NEVER disappoint

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Just acquired Clayton and honestly couldn't be more pumped, I always try to draft pitchers from the NL West, but it never panned out. This year I got Kershaw and MadBum. Any concern with this guys hip? That's the only negative I'm seeing on this thread. Other than that, seems like all systems are a go.

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when is he gonna get his TJ? this year or next year?

That's not cool.

Well, wondering when a pitcher might need TJ is a lot different than expressing the hope that it happens. I wonder aloud every year when Sabathia's knees are going to give out from all the weight he needs to start and stop through his delivery.

While I don't find the question objectionable, I do not share the concern. Kershaw's pitching mechanics are excellent and do not place undue stress on the elbow or the shoulder. He uses his whole body to create momentum and there's no hint of an "M" (I refuse to call it an "inverted W". It's an M.)

Hip impingement might cause him some problems this season, but I don't think it's a serious concern. He played through it last year and still wound up with elite numbers. It might keep him from winning the CY and could even result in a DL visit to give him some extra rest, but I doubt that it stops him from being one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball.

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I've always loved Kershaw, but thought Verlander was better until I read this article.

Think the Dodgers lineup is good enough this year to make Kershaw the best? click on the link and tell me what you think.

I've had Kershaw higher each of the last two seasons in my rankings.

My first impression of that article in your link is that it is pretty lazy fantasy analysis. Age and ERA should almost be irrelevent when dealing with two guys performing at that level with both at or near their primes. Neither is really that great of a predictor of future performance. Baseball is a "what have you done for me lately" type of sport. If you drafted Tim Lincecum and Grady Sizemore four years ago in a dynasty you were feeling really good about yourself. Now you drink a lot.

I would instead look deeper at some other numbers. Verlander's huge 2011 was driven by some luck factors in a high strand rate and an extremely low batting average on balls in play as well as those 24 wins. I predicted last year that his ERA would come back up and that I thought Kershaw was actually the better pick. I still feel that way. Age is part of it, but I also believe that Kershaw's numbers have been right where his indicators predict the should be. He has yet to post that flukey season with the 80% strand rate and .238 batting average on balls in play, yet his ERA and WHIP have been step for step with Verlander the last two seasons without any indicators suggesting lucky performance. If he ever has those luck factors swing his way he will have a monster year. We are arguing apples and oranges here though. Both will be very solid this year. I think I'd rather have the younger guy pitching in the NL though that hasn't had that one luck driven season yet. I just hope there aren't any lingering issues with his hip.

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