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Daniel Straily 2013 Outlook

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He's really not that good. Fantasy 4th or 5th. That's fine off of waivers...but the hype in this thread is ridiculous for the talent level he actually owns.

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He's really not that good. Fantasy 4th or 5th. That's fine off of waivers...but the hype in this thread is ridiculous for the talent level he actually owns.

prospect gurus think that he's maybe a #4-5 on an mlb team... fantasy sp4-5 is a reach

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His HR rate was not a fluke last year. He is going to serve up taters. He does not have above average stuff. He is like a Scott Baker clone. Solid back end MLB starter, and that is about it. Not sure how anyone watched this guy and saw a future Cy Young that is pretty bad analysis in my opinion.

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His fastball was crappy all game, the only pitch that got him swing and misses was changeup and he looked awful. No more than #4 starter.

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His HR rate was not a fluke last year. He is going to serve up taters. He does not have above average stuff. He is like a Scott Baker clone. Solid back end MLB starter, and that is about it. Not sure how anyone watched this guy and saw a future Cy Young that is pretty bad analysis in my opinion.

its about the K/9, cant really compare him to Scott Baker, cmon, he might have got lit, but 6 k's in 4 inn is good

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His HR rate was not a fluke last year. He is going to serve up taters. He does not have above average stuff. He is like a Scott Baker clone. Solid back end MLB starter, and that is about it. Not sure how anyone watched this guy and saw a future Cy Young that is pretty bad analysis in my opinion.

there's a whole lot of grey area between future CY Young pitcher, and a back end rotation guy/scott baker. i can definitely see number 2 or 3 starter upside. his stuff is not average considering his secondary stuff is pretty filthy.

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His HR rate was not a fluke last year. He is going to serve up taters. He does not have above average stuff. He is like a Scott Baker clone. Solid back end MLB starter, and that is about it. Not sure how anyone watched this guy and saw a future Cy Young that is pretty bad analysis in my opinion.

its about the K/9, cant really compare him to Scott Baker, cmon, he might have got lit, but 6 k's in 4 inn is good

Baker had solid MLB k rates. He was 7+ every year. That is probably right around where Straily will end up settling in at. And Baker had very low walk rates like Straily will probably have. Both had virtually the same exact stuff.

Edited by Cmilne23

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His HR rate was not a fluke last year. He is going to serve up taters. He does not have above average stuff. He is like a Scott Baker clone. Solid back end MLB starter, and that is about it. Not sure how anyone watched this guy and saw a future Cy Young that is pretty bad analysis in my opinion.

its about the K/9, cant really compare him to Scott Baker, cmon, he might have got lit, but 6 k's in 4 inn is good

Baker had solid MLB k rates. He was 7+ every year. That is probably right around where Straily will end up settling in at. And Baker had very low walk rates like Straily will probably have. Both had virtually the same exact stuff.

Baker had better stuff, if Straily can end up as good as Baker minus the injuries his owners should consider themselves lucky.

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His HR rate was not a fluke last year. He is going to serve up taters. He does not have above average stuff. He is like a Scott Baker clone. Solid back end MLB starter, and that is about it. Not sure how anyone watched this guy and saw a future Cy Young that is pretty bad analysis in my opinion.

its about the K/9, cant really compare him to Scott Baker, cmon, he might have got lit, but 6 k's in 4 inn is good

Baker had solid MLB k rates. He was 7+ every year. That is probably right around where Straily will end up settling in at. And Baker had very low walk rates like Straily will probably have. Both had virtually the same exact stuff.

Baker had better stuff, if Straily can end up as good as Baker minus the injuries his owners should consider themselves lucky.

I actually thought that was a pretty fair comparison. Baker had solid slider, good change up, he just left his fastball out over the plate too much. Him and Straily have very similiar makeups. I don't think that is an unfair comparison at all. People overreacted too much to Straily's minor league K rates last year. Unless he just has A++++++++++++++ command and location I can't ever see him being a K per inning pitcher.

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Straily's slider is pretty good, has a sneaky fastball. Profiles like a back of the rotation guy, probably a #4. No clue why there is so much debate about him. Once he's been in the big leagues a few years, he'll settle in to being a serviceable fantasy pitcher and solid back of the rotation piece for the A's. In 2015, his thread will probably be 5 or 6 pages for the entire season and no one will think too much about him.

Every pitcher with a solid MiLB track record seems to get a pretty sizeable thread when they're called up, raised expectations, they settle in to who they are, and people become bored with them. Rinse, repeat.

Check out Kevin Slowey's thread from 2008. 17 pages.

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=53380&st=0

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So much for that experiment....shelled.

Enjoy the trip back to Sacramento...and my league waiver wire.

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Funny how FoulLine is never around when his touts blow up.

And that happens 90% of the time

Besides didn't I say Straily is better than Brett Anderson? Boy was I off my rocker for that assertion. No chance Straily is even close to Brett Anderson was the general consensus.... Well so far his season's numbers are far better.

The Brett Anderson stuff, while I disagree is not the reason a lot of people jumped on you in this thread. It was the future Cy Young winner stuff. I watched him pitched again last night and was very unimpressed again. His HR rate was not flukey at all, the guy pumps meat 90-91 that is very hittable. His slider is solid, his changeup has been crap in every outing I have seen since he came up. Still small sample size. I just have a hard time really understanding how you watched him and thought he was a future Cy Young contender. Different strokes for different folks I am sure, but there is nothing this guy has that rates as anything more than a B- pitch. And you need something elite to be an ace and compete for Cy Young's at this level.

I own him in my keeper league as well, so I want him to be good, I just don't think I have much more than a back end fantasy starter sitting in my minor leagues.

Edited by Cmilne23
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The Brett Anderson stuff, while I disagree is not the reason a lot of people jumped on you in this thread. It was the future Cy Young winner stuff. I watched him pitched again last night and was very unimpressed again. His HR rate was not flukey at all, the guy pumps meat 90-91 that is very hittable. His slider is solid, his changeup has been crap in every outing I have seen since he came up. Still small sample size. I just have a hard time really understanding how you watched him and thought he was a future Cy Young contender. Different strokes for different folks I am sure, but there is nothing this guy has that rates as anything more than a B- pitch. And you need something elite to be an ace and compete for Cy Young's at this level.

I own him in my keeper league as well, so I want him to be good, I just don't think I have much more than a back end fantasy starter sitting in my minor leagues.

There is no chance Straily gives up over 2 HRs per 9 innings, let alone 2.52, so yes his HR rate was an insane fluke last year. Let alone the HR/FB rate which was extremely inflated as well.

The difference between our analysis is that I have watched Straily closely for over 2 years now through the minors and every start last year at the major league level. You are judging him based on one rough start (yesterday) in which he really pitched much better than the final numbers indicated.

Yes Straily doesn't have over powering velocity or crazy deception to carry his fastball when he doesn't command it. So he can get into trouble with it in the majors. But Straily's strength is his offspeed pitches. Anyone who watched that should be able to see this.

Also are you aware that he throws a curveball? Because he mixed it in quite frequently his last start. Again I know Fangraphs says 3 curveballs thrown all season, so you guys think he doesn't throw curveball but again fangraphs got it wrong this time. Love those guys over there, but they don't get everything right and if you think they are even close to tracking pitches 100% correctly you are crazier than I am. Best site out there to use but it isn't 100% correct. Tracking pitches isn't easy.

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seemed like he was squeezed a little bit and you gotta give props to some of those Angel hitters. I still have faith in Straily, you cant let one start dictate everything. I really hope he gets another start this weekend or early next week.

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Okay so I watched the start.

Straily did give up a HR to Pujols (one of the greatest hitters of all time) and a super deep bomb to Trumbo (one of the most powerful hitters in baseball right now). Other than that until the 5th inning melt down he looked really good. Even though it took a couple of innings for Jaso to realize he needed to go with more offspeed.

But it started in the 4th inning, Straily had Trumbo punched out on a breaking ball on the outside corner. The Ump blew the call, Trumbo walked. Then Kendrick reached on an error. So now the inning has been extended 2 batters.

Then Jimenez gets on by beating out an infield single, that wasn't hit well at all it just beat the shift. Then Bourjos being the hard nose player that he is, got pegged, didn't even try to get out of the way. Then Trout singled good piece of hitting and just beat Straily's fastball. Then Albert comes up and Straily made a great sharp sinking 3-2 slider that just absolutely fooled Albert. But Albert being as good of a hitter as he is swung all arms and just got the head of the bat down enough to just flip it over Lowrie's head at short. Lowrie was in some to get the runner at the plate, if he was at his normal depth that would have been a soft liner easily caught.

A few other things to consider. This Angels lineup is very dangerous and Straily has had 9 starts in the majors since last August in the majors. 3 have been against The Angels, so that is already tough luck for Straily.

I'm not saying Straily dominated, but he certainly pitched a lot better than his numbers indicated. So whoever didn't have Straily in their 10 and 12 man leagues, chances are the previous Straily owner just dropped him. So put him on the watch list cause this kid isn't done. He will be HUGE down the stretch. I am banking on it.

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The Brett Anderson stuff, while I disagree is not the reason a lot of people jumped on you in this thread. It was the future Cy Young winner stuff. I watched him pitched again last night and was very unimpressed again. His HR rate was not flukey at all, the guy pumps meat 90-91 that is very hittable. His slider is solid, his changeup has been crap in every outing I have seen since he came up. Still small sample size. I just have a hard time really understanding how you watched him and thought he was a future Cy Young contender. Different strokes for different folks I am sure, but there is nothing this guy has that rates as anything more than a B- pitch. And you need something elite to be an ace and compete for Cy Young's at this level.

I own him in my keeper league as well, so I want him to be good, I just don't think I have much more than a back end fantasy starter sitting in my minor leagues.

The difference between our analysis is that I have watched Straily closely for over 2 years now through the minors and every start last year at the major league level. You are judging him based on one rough start (yesterday) in which he really pitched much better than the final numbers indicated.

That is a false assumption. I have watched every start of his since he came into the majors. I have MLB extra innings. I work from home. I watch baseball just about all day long. My scouting on him is not based on one start, it is based on every single MLB start he has made since he got called up last season.

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Lets move on now to his outlook moving forward. Don't start @AL East, @Tex, or v. LAA and start pretty much everywhere else and you've got yourself a SP3.

Edited by The Harsh
Removed personal angle.
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Yikes, I tried to forget about that horrid thread.

The one and only example, go figure it's not BASEBALL related. I've been waiting for that to get brought up. Yeah let's crucify a guy for being wrong about a WAIVER WIRE pick up. Never did I even say draft the guy. All I said is he has the upside to be a big time play maker. Yes next year he will be fantasy relevant. If you don't think so stop arguing with me and just make a wager with me for the entire Rotoworld Community to see. And yes you will have to give me odds, it's only fair. I can already foresee the excuses coming....

Find these baseball references, please. Also man up and put a bet down if I'm such a rambling idiot.

I'm not crucifying you. Just have a difference of opinion. You need to not have such thin skin. You are getting super defensive. Lets just chalk it up to agree to disagree and see how the results play out. I don't feel like going back and forth on this. Our stances are pretty well documented at this point. I hope you are right, I own Straily in my keeper league. I am just not super high on him.

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Yikes, I tried to forget about that horrid thread.

The one and only example you have that I was wrong about. Kudos. Again not baseball and a waiver wire pick up. I never once said

we all make bad calls, foulline. i would also note that your analysis is excellent much of the time. my advice...

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That is a false assumption. I have watched every start of his since he came into the majors. I have MLB extra innings. I work from home. I watch baseball just about all day long. My scouting on him is not based on one start, it is based on every single MLB start he has made since he got called up last season.

I'm glad all the opposing posters on Straily have yet to post why he is so bad. The opposing arguments shouldn't be about how I am uncredible (without proper facts) but should focus on why you believe what you believe.

So if you did in fact watch his starts last year and still missed it that to me just says you don't know how to evaluate pitching. So it's either that or you are just flat out lying about seeing all his starts. Why can I give an in detail batter to batter breakdown? I have yet to see you do anything remotely close to that. For someone who claims to watch baseball as much as you do your analysis has been very weak up until this point.

You claim his HR rate wasn't flukey? To me this tells me one of two things, if not both.

First off, you don't pay attention very well to what you watch. As if you watched his starts last year the ball was carrying very well in almost every start. I have already proven this statistically (go back and look through the thread) let alone the fact that I watched those games very closely and saw for myself.

Secondly you do not know how to comprehend statistical information properly.

Straily's HR/9 was 2.52, do you know who had the highest HR/9 innings of any qualified starter? No you don't, but now I'm sure you'll look it up. But I will save you the trouble. Ervin Santana had the highest at 1.97 the worst of his major league career. The next highest was Phil Hughes pitching out of Yankee Stadium at 1.65, so to think he's a pitcher to allow 2+ HRs per 9 just is unreasonable to begin with. Let alone the fact that his minor league career HR/9 is 0.62 HR/9 and in college was even lower at 0.53 HR/9. So you are clearly over exaggerating a small sample size.

To even further look into this the pitcher with the worst HR/FB rate of qualified starters was again Ervin Santana at 18.9%, then a young Henderson Alvarez at 18.1%, then a big drop off to Mike Leak at 16.7%. Straily's 16.7% HR/FB rate last year would have tied him with Mike Leak for 3rd highest in the league. So yes I fully expect that to drop as should everyone else.

So to think that Daniel Straily is going to have a HR/9 a half home run higher than the worst player last year is insane.

Look at my post and notice how many facts, stats, as well as reason are involved. If you don't consider me credible then so be it, don't argue with me. You aren't going to win an argument by bringing up William Powell. Where is the other side? Explain to me how any pitcher fantasy relevant is possibly going to maintain a 2.52 HR/9. Please explain that, take your time because you are going to need it...

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