PRoSPx

Daniel Straily 2013 Outlook

Recommended Posts

You are ignoring my point. Show me what he has in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out? Specifically to generate swings and misses? His change up was extremely poor last season. His fastball was extremely hittable at 91 MPH. What does he have that will be able to combat left handed hitters from destroying him? I didn't see anything last season. Maybe it was small sample size, maybe nerves, but I am extremely skeptical of him being anything more than a 4-5 starter at the major league level. Nothing shows me he is going to be a star. I think you are putting way too much stock into his 2012 minor league stats. That is basically what you are judging all your opinions off of. Because prior to that he has pretty mediocre in the minors for 3 straight years.

Too much stock? This guy is a pick up off the waiver wire, that only suckers like me actually wasted a draft pick on. Yeah I wish I would have just not drafted him and picked him up. You are acting like I traded an under producing Jay Bruce for him.

On the otherside you guys may want to buy in on his 2012 minor league stats. Prospects can turn the corner with one season.

In regards to his fastball.

Get velocity out of your head. Velocity is the least important factor when pitching to a major league hitter. Kershaw sits 92 - 93 the entire game and has a great fastball. Unless you're hitting 98+ your fastball velocity isn't over powering even the bottom of the order.

Location is the most important factor

Movement being the second most important factor

Deception just may be equally if not more important than the first two factors.

Secondly Straily is another product of a pitcher who used a curveball early in his pro career until he learned a slider from professional coaching. His slider is improving rapidly the more he uses it. Yes it is MLB ready and yes he will back door a ton of lefties with it this year, mark my words.

Now let me further add that I am trained in analyzing baseball players. I am not bragging or trying to be cool I train baseball players for a living highschool and college kids. I actually have 5 hours of private lessons lined up starting in the next hour. Every weekend I am booked solid teaching kids baseball.

Also I have MLB.tv and MiLB.tv season passes just about every year and yes I have personally watched guys that I hype. I do not only go by the stats. But yes I must say stats in the end are king, which makes sense because that is all fantasy baseball is. If you disagree that's fine but please just watch an argument between Harold Reynolds and Brian Kenny and tell me who you agree with then.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are ignoring my point. Show me what he has in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out? Specifically to generate swings and misses? His change up was extremely poor last season. His fastball was extremely hittable at 91 MPH. What does he have that will be able to combat left handed hitters from destroying him? I didn't see anything last season. Maybe it was small sample size, maybe nerves, but I am extremely skeptical of him being anything more than a 4-5 starter at the major league level. Nothing shows me he is going to be a star. I think you are putting way too much stock into his 2012 minor league stats. That is basically what you are judging all your opinions off of. Because prior to that he has pretty mediocre in the minors for 3 straight years.

Too much stock? This guy is a pick up off the waiver wire, that only suckers like me actually wasted a draft pick on. Yeah I wish I would have just not drafted him and picked him up. You are acting like I traded an under producing Jay Bruce for him.

On the otherside you guys may want to buy in on his 2012 minor league stats. Prospects can turn the corner with one season.

In regards to his fastball.

Get velocity out of your head. Velocity is the least important factor when pitching to a major league hitter. Kershaw sits 92 - 93 the entire game and has a great fastball. Unless you're hitting 98+ your fastball velocity isn't over powering even the bottom of the order.

Location is the most important factor

Movement being the second most important factor

Deception just may be equally if not more important than the first two factors.

Secondly Straily is another product of a pitcher who used a curveball early in his pro career until he learned a slider from professional coaching. His slider is improving rapidly the more he uses it. Yes it is MLB ready and yes he will back door a ton of lefties with it this year, mark my words.

Now let me further add that I am trained in analyzing baseball players. I am not bragging or trying to be cool I train baseball players for a living highschool and college kids. I actually have 5 hours of private lessons lined up starting in the next hour. Every weekend I am booked solid teaching kids baseball.

Also I have MLB.tv and MiLB.tv season passes just about every year and yes I have personally watched guys that I hype. I do not only go by the stats. But yes I must say stats in the end are king, which makes sense because that is all fantasy baseball is. If you disagree that's fine but please just watch an argument between Harold Reynolds and Brian Kenny and tell me who you agree with then.

I have all the same credentials as you. But that is not neither here nor there. You are not explaining to me how he is going to get left handed batters out. You as well as I know, as a right handed pitcher your best weapon to getting lefties out is a great change up. He does not have that. So what else is he going to do get away with getting them out? Changing eye levels and pin pointing his fastball? That could work but he is going to make more mistakes with it as hitters pick up on the tendencies. I am just not sold in seeing anything he has in his arsenal that will be a great tool at getting left handed batters out. And as a right handed starter that is usually what seperates front line starters from back end starters, ability to get lefties out/have a reliable change up/offspeed option.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are ignoring my point. Show me what he has in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out? Specifically to generate swings and misses? His change up was extremely poor last season. His fastball was extremely hittable at 91 MPH. What does he have that will be able to combat left handed hitters from destroying him? I didn't see anything last season. Maybe it was small sample size, maybe nerves, but I am extremely skeptical of him being anything more than a 4-5 starter at the major league level. Nothing shows me he is going to be a star. I think you are putting way too much stock into his 2012 minor league stats. That is basically what you are judging all your opinions off of. Because prior to that he has pretty mediocre in the minors for 3 straight years.

Too much stock? This guy is a pick up off the waiver wire, that only suckers like me actually wasted a draft pick on. Yeah I wish I would have just not drafted him and picked him up. You are acting like I traded an under producing Jay Bruce for him.

On the otherside you guys may want to buy in on his 2012 minor league stats. Prospects can turn the corner with one season.

In regards to his fastball.

Get velocity out of your head. Velocity is the least important factor when pitching to a major league hitter. Kershaw sits 92 - 93 the entire game and has a great fastball. Unless you're hitting 98+ your fastball velocity isn't over powering even the bottom of the order.

Location is the most important factor

Movement being the second most important factor

Deception just may be equally if not more important than the first two factors.

Secondly Straily is another product of a pitcher who used a curveball early in his pro career until he learned a slider from professional coaching. His slider is improving rapidly the more he uses it. Yes it is MLB ready and yes he will back door a ton of lefties with it this year, mark my words.

Now let me further add that I am trained in analyzing baseball players. I am not bragging or trying to be cool I train baseball players for a living highschool and college kids. I actually have 5 hours of private lessons lined up starting in the next hour. Every weekend I am booked solid teaching kids baseball.

Also I have MLB.tv and MiLB.tv season passes just about every year and yes I have personally watched guys that I hype. I do not only go by the stats. But yes I must say stats in the end are king, which makes sense because that is all fantasy baseball is. If you disagree that's fine but please just watch an argument between Harold Reynolds and Brian Kenny and tell me who you agree with then.

I'm really hoping no one ever agrees with Harold Reynolds. Great article the other day on Fangraphs about how objectively wrong he was about CC Sabathia's early game vs late game pitching strategies. Harold played the game, but usually that's an impediment to actually understanding the game.

Anyway. Straily. I posted over in the Anderson thread before this got moved here, and then saw some of this discussion, and if you really are an evaluator I'm sort of befuddled, because there are some very noticeable things about Straily that point to him being an effective if unspectacular MLB pitcher - his velocity, his pitch metrics, and his motion.

You're very right on two things - velocity doesn't matter as much as location. However, if your location stinks, you better have the velocity to get away with it, or the movement to fool the hitter into not squaring it up. Considering Straily's penchant for giving up FB's, which is bad, he needs to have a 93-96 mph FB consistently to get away with it without getting hurt. He doesn't. It's a problem. Some of which we saw on the MLB level with the amount of HR's he gave up. But his era was mid 3's...and you thought he was unlucky. Errr...he was INCREDIBLY lucky. His strand rate was 90% and his xFIP was mid 5's. Straily should have been much worse than he was. I'm sure you could say a lot of that has to do with that other thing I mentioned. The movement he gets that prohibits the hitters from squaring up. Yeah, about that....

So in AAA last year Straily was lights out, which was something of a departure from his previous years in the minors, and he did it without the velocity we all covet. He learned something new! That slider! Yay! Well, unfortunately, as I mentioned in the Anderson thread, to get that new slider to snap, and the additonal velocity and movement on his FB, the A's altered his delivery. In the worst way possible. The A's had him basically adopt the inverted W motion which may as well come with a gift certificate to Dr. James Andrews along with one complimentary UCL ligament. It eats up arms a a ridiculous rate. Straily is seeing the greatest success of his career, but has done it by setting a timebomb on his elbow. And considering his other metrics, this change will probably only make him an above avg pitcher.

These things are pretty easy to see, hell just scan his front page on Fangraphs, or watch him throw a half inning. I don't understand how these things would get overlooked when giving him an objective look with the intention of scouting him. And Cmilne brings up an excellent point - he has no pitch that will be effective against MLB LH's. With a hittable FB that often gets elevated, lefties are going to consistently hurt him.

Edited by mcbane
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All I know is he got Brett Wallace to chase a couple of high fastballs in his first start this season. That was enough to convince me. We're talking about one of the best left-handed hitters in the league and Straily just blew him away.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still never got an answer on how he will get left handed batters out. He told someone to explain why they were skeptical on Straily. I did, and I got a long drawn out reply that mentioned nothing to the point I made. ?????

in fairness to foulline, he did say he had lessons lined up that would start within an hr of the discussion posts. i don't think he's deliberately ignoring your call for info. and i do hope he remembers to come back into this thread as i'm thoroughly enjoying the discussion.

as a straily owner, i'll read one post and think "oooh, i'll keep him!" but read another post by cmilne or mcbane and verbally scream "damn! gotta sell high!" i'm having a ton of fun, lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still never got an answer on how he will get left handed batters out. He told someone to explain why they were skeptical on Straily. I did, and I got a long drawn out reply that mentioned nothing to the point I made. ?????

in fairness to foulline, he did say he had lessons lined up that would start within an hr of the discussion posts. i don't think he's deliberately ignoring your call for info. and i do hope he remembers to come back into this thread as i'm thoroughly enjoying the discussion.

as a straily owner, i'll read one post and think "oooh, i'll keep him!" but read another post by cmilne or mcbane and verbally scream "damn! gotta sell high!" i'm having a ton of fun, lol

Well I made the post for the 2nd time at 9:24 my time, then Brewcrew made a post at 9:25, then he came in and replied to him at 9:33. So he had time in between to make other posts but chose to reply to personal posts, instead of the posts discussing the actual topic at hand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still never got an answer on how he will get left handed batters out. He told someone to explain why they were skeptical on Straily. I did, and I got a long drawn out reply that mentioned nothing to the point I made. ?????

in fairness to foulline, he did say he had lessons lined up that would start within an hr of the discussion posts. i don't think he's deliberately ignoring your call for info. and i do hope he remembers to come back into this thread as i'm thoroughly enjoying the discussion.

as a straily owner, i'll read one post and think "oooh, i'll keep him!" but read another post by cmilne or mcbane and verbally scream "damn! gotta sell high!" i'm having a ton of fun, lol

Well I made the post for the 2nd time at 9:24 my time, then Brewcrew made a post at 9:25, then he came in and replied to him at 9:33. So he had time in between to make other posts but chose to reply to personal posts, instead of the posts discussing the actual topic at hand.

well then. lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still never got an answer on how he will get left handed batters out. He told someone to explain why they were skeptical on Straily. I did, and I got a long drawn out reply that mentioned nothing to the point I made. ?????

in fairness to foulline, he did say he had lessons lined up that would start within an hr of the discussion posts. i don't think he's deliberately ignoring your call for info. and i do hope he remembers to come back into this thread as i'm thoroughly enjoying the discussion.

as a straily owner, i'll read one post and think "oooh, i'll keep him!" but read another post by cmilne or mcbane and verbally scream "damn! gotta sell high!" i'm having a ton of fun, lol

Haha! I think sometimes in these arguments we get too wrapped up in ceiling/floor, breakouts, etc, and the arguments take a stance that if you like a player you love him and think he's a hall of famer, andif youre the slightest critical you hate him. In the case of someone like Straily it's really about how useful he is to your situation, league size, etc. I like him fine, and he can be very useful, I just don't believe he'll ever be an "ace".

That being said Foul line was pretty explicit in saying he thinks he'd win a Cy Young, and is better than Brett Anderson, and to those points I would love to hear the reasoning as it is pretty contrary to everything I've seen.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's weird how polarizing this guy is. Maybe because he came out of nowhere, I don't know. But the numbers say he has a shot to be good, maybe even very good. He's dominating the PCL, which is a norotiriously tough league for pitchers. So he's getting righties and lefties out at the highest level of the minor leagues. And he did it last year, too. Not to mention his start against the Astros this year (I know, it's the Astros, but he K'd 11 in 6 innings). Scouts get it wrong all the time. Maybe they got it wrong with this guy. Maybe they didn't. We'll see. But I think he's a guy worth taking a shot on, particularly in that ballpark.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are many ways to get hitters weather they are lefty or right.

There isn't some magic pitch that will just get a specific type of hitter out. Even if there was, it wouldn't be long until the league adjusted and took that away from you.

It's all about location and the sequence of an at bat. That is how you get any hitter out.

His change up is plenty good and much better than you are giving it credit for.

His slider is already more than MLB ready and is improving at a rapid rate. As I said before he will be back dooring many lefties with it this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's weird how polarizing this guy is. Maybe because he came out of nowhere, I don't know. But the numbers say he has a shot to be good, maybe even very good. He's dominating the PCL, which is a norotiriously tough league for pitchers. So he's getting righties and lefties out at the highest level of the minor leagues. And he did it last year, too. Not to mention his start against the Astros this year (I know, it's the Astros, but he K'd 11 in 6 innings). Scouts get it wrong all the time. Maybe they got it wrong with this guy. Maybe they didn't. We'll see. But I think he's a guy worth taking a shot on, particularly in that ballpark.

hes worth it alone for the ballpark and the great lineup he would be pitching for

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That being said Foul line was pretty explicit in saying he thinks he'd win a Cy Young, and is better than Brett Anderson, and to those points I would love to hear the reasoning as it is pretty contrary to everything I've seen.

I said he has Cy Young potential. As in shows enough promise to at one point in his career be the best pitcher in baseball for 1 season. Whereas Anderson does not have that potential, not even close to that potential.

Also my points are all over this thread and The Brett Anderson thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are many ways to get hitters weather they are lefty or right.

There isn't some magic pitch that will just get a specific type of hitter out. Even if there was, it wouldn't be long until the league adjusted and took that away from you.

It's all about location and the sequence of an at bat. That is how you get any hitter out.

His change up is plenty good and much better than you are giving it credit for.

His slider is already more than MLB ready and is improving at a rapid rate. As I said before he will be back dooring many lefties with it this year.

You did nothing to sell me, or the board on how he is a "future cy young contender" so you should probably just stop making those proclamations if you don't have the courage of your conviction in explaining what he has in his arsenal that will get him to that point. There are certain ways to get left handed hitters out for right handed pitchers. The change up is the highest % pitch that gives a right handed starter the best chance at keeping them off balance. If you are a right hand starter you need a very good change up, or an elite level, pin point controlled slider that can get in on the hitters hands. Why do we have to annoint all these young players so early? Why can't we just leave it at he has a good chance to be successful at the majors due to being in a big time pitchers park and on a very good team? Why do we have to label all these young guys before they really have a chance to get there feet wet?

Edited by Cmilne23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been burning a roster spot for him since the start of the season and will continue to do so until he's called up. I didn't like to see Parker pitch a gem yesterday lol, seemed he was a couple bad outings away from a demotion, oh well. Maybe Tubby will start imploding soon, one can only hope. Can't wait till i have 3/5ths of this rotation!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been burning a roster spot for him since the start of the season and will continue to do so until he's called up. I didn't like to see Parker pitch a gem yesterday lol, seemed he was a couple bad outings away from a demotion, oh well. Maybe Tubby will start imploding soon, one can only hope. Can't wait till i have 3/5ths of this rotation!

tubby wont implode. Hs been solid for 3 straight years now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That being said Foul line was pretty explicit in saying he thinks he'd win a Cy Young, and is better than Brett Anderson, and to those points I would love to hear the reasoning as it is pretty contrary to everything I've seen.

I said he has Cy Young potential. As in shows enough promise to at one point in his career be the best pitcher in baseball for 1 season. Whereas Anderson does not have that potential, not even close to that potential.

Also my points are all over this thread and The Brett Anderson thread.

Brett Anderson was drafted out of HS, Straily was drafted out of college. So you would hope Straily was more polished during his minor league span than Anderson was.

Here are the minor league numbers for both though:

Brett Anderson: 270 IP, 279k's, 56BB's, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 whip.

Brett Anderson showed ELITE level K:BB ratios in the minors. 5:1 BB ratio is almost unheard of. That is flat out, ace type filthy. There is good reason to believe that Brett Anderson is/was going to be a very good major league starting pitcher based on his minor league track record.

Dan Straily: 532.1 ip, 575k's, 162BB's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 whip.

Same with Anderson very good K:BB ratios. His is closer to the 3.5:1 ratio. Same ERA, same WHIP. Both had basically the same minor league track records, showing very good command, very good ability to miss bats.

Now you take Straily's minor league numbers and adjust that to being a "future Cy young award winner" based on his minor league numbers. Yet, Anderson who had very similiar numbers throughout his minor league career, and has shown great ability at the MLB level, "does not have close to the potential of Straily". Your words 2 posts above, not mine. I don't understand how you come to this conclusion. It sounds more like a fan boy type argument than anything of substance honestly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You did nothing to sell me, or the board on how he is a "future cy young contender" so you should probably just stop making those proclamations if you don't have the courage of your conviction in explaining what he has in his arsenal that will get him to that point. There are certain ways to get left handed hitters out for right handed pitchers. The change up is the highest % pitch that gives a right handed starter the best chance at keeping them off balance. If you are a right hand starter you need a very good change up, or an elite level, pin point controlled slider that can get in on the hitters hands. Why do we have to annoint all these young players so early? Why can't we just leave it at he has a good chance to be successful at the majors due to being in a big time pitchers park and on a very good team? Why do we have to label all these young guys before they really have a chance to get there feet wet?

Courage or convition?

Please get off of the personal level. There's too much you, you, you, in your post. YOU need to stop talking about ME and start addressing the topic at hand. Why is Anderson better than Straily? Why is Straily's arsenal so bad that he will never get a left handed hitter out?

Reread your above post. What about your post is specific to Daniel Straily???

None of it is.

All you did was post some B.S. blanket statement that you heard over the years and are trying to apply it to a specific case that you really don't know much about. Let's be real here. "If you are a right hand starter you need a very good change up, or an elite level, pin point controlled slider that can get in on the hitters hands."

If you are a STARTING PITCHER in the MAJOR LEAGUES you need a CHANGEUP. Period, exclamation point.

Tell me what the best quality of a change up is because I have a feeling you have no idea. You keep acting like Straily's changeup is garbage. When it is in fact very good and keep in mind it only has to be good enough for the way HE pitches. No one else. I'm sure I'll end up explaining this statement later as well but right now I don't have time too.

Edited by FouLLine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You did nothing to sell me, or the board on how he is a "future cy young contender" so you should probably just stop making those proclamations if you don't have the courage of your conviction in explaining what he has in his arsenal that will get him to that point. There are certain ways to get left handed hitters out for right handed pitchers. The change up is the highest % pitch that gives a right handed starter the best chance at keeping them off balance. If you are a right hand starter you need a very good change up, or an elite level, pin point controlled slider that can get in on the hitters hands. Why do we have to annoint all these young players so early? Why can't we just leave it at he has a good chance to be successful at the majors due to being in a big time pitchers park and on a very good team? Why do we have to label all these young guys before they really have a chance to get there feet wet?

Courage or convition?

Please get off of the personal level. There's too much you, you, you, in your post. YOU need to stop talking about ME and start addressing the topic at hand. Why is Anderson better than Straily? Why is Straily's arsenal so bad that he will never get a left handed hitter out?

Reread your above post. What about your post is specific to Daniel Straily???

None of it is.

All you did was post some B.S. blanket statement that you heard over the years and are trying to apply it to a specific case that you really don't know much about. Let's be real here. "If you are a right hand starter you need a very good change up, or an elite level, pin point controlled slider that can get in on the hitters hands."

If you are a STARTING PITCHER in the MAJOR LEAGUES you need a CHANGEUP. Period, exclamation point.

Tell me what the best quality of a change up is because I have a feeling you have no idea. You keep acting like Straily's changeup is garbage. When it is in fact very good and keep in mind it only has to be good enough for the way HE pitches. No one else. I'm sure I'll end up explaining this statement later as well but right now I don't have time too.

You need to calm the f*** down. I made zero personal attacks on you. I said you need to have the courage of your conviction. That is being brave enough to stand up for what you believe in. You have danced around my question numerous times and given zero answers to what he has in his arsenal to get left handed batters out. All you said was his change up is good, you are wrong. The pitch got absolutely destroyed by left handed batters last season when he was up at the big leagues. It was rated as a -2.2 on the fangraphs scale because it generated zero swings and misses and almsot everytime he threw it, it got crushed. So maybe that is small sample size fluke, I am not sure but that is all we have to go off of right now. So you are going to have to articulate to me why we should believe he was something in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out at an above average clip. That is all I am asking you to explain to us. I don't make personal attacks on posters, I am here to talk baseball. So I would appreciate it if you would not go down that avenue with me.

And this is about YOU. "You" are the one who told this board he is a future Cy Young contender. So I am challenging you to back it up. If all you have is he was great in the minors in 2012 then lets cut our losses and say agree to disagree and let the results play out.

Edited by Cmilne23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That being said Foul line was pretty explicit in saying he thinks he'd win a Cy Young, and is better than Brett Anderson, and to those points I would love to hear the reasoning as it is pretty contrary to everything I've seen.

I said he has Cy Young potential. As in shows enough promise to at one point in his career be the best pitcher in baseball for 1 season. Whereas Anderson does not have that potential, not even close to that potential.

Also my points are all over this thread and The Brett Anderson thread.

Er...what? Again, you can't just say something and pass it off as fact. I havent seen an actual rebuttal of anything on here. What anout Straily's pitch grades vs Andersons? What about Straily's FB rate vs Andersons? GB rate? Youve never answered anything brought up about Straily's motion, or his luck from last season. Anderson has always been the one with the "ace" potential, and the "ace" results, and im not really sure how that can be argued. The numbers are right there on their fangraph (or any other sites) pages. Stuff-wise, results-wise, pitching IQ-wise, Anderson has always outperformed Straily. Hell, I like Straily, I just don't understand where this is coming from, because there's nothing but some apparent personal preference being cited here. I even think the people arguing Anderson are being too lenient. The person above listing their minor league numbers didn't even take into account that Anderson was young for every MiLB level, and was pitching successfully in the majors at 21 while Straily was still I'm the low minors. Straily was still in freaking A ball while Anderson was putting up #1 level numbers in the Majors. I just don't get it.

I think you're being unduly swayed by Straily's k numbers in AAA and not looking objectively at the body of work or talent displayed. Either eye or metrics should tell you Anderson is the superior pitcher. Injury will always be a wildcard, Anderson could have enough injuries that his talent degrades while Straily's doesn't....but as I said before Straily is an arm explosion waiting to happen, so I don't shift the weight of that in advantage of either.

***oh and almost forgot to mention this whole changeup thing. I'm not sure what the point of arguing this is as

1) it's a known that you need some sort of secondary pitch that will get out lefties. Whether it's a slider, curve, or change. The reason most people cite a change is that from a righty it should theoretically share the same plane and arm motionlf a fastball but break away from a lefty - hence it being the preferred weapon over a slider that would break inside to a lefty with the potential to be hit out if misplaced, or a curve that probably has no break one way or the other. A 2-seam or split with late action can achieve the same results.

2) not all pitchers have a change. Not sure how that's debatable. Which can lead to some tough splits if it is not substituted for another one of the breaking pitches listed above.

3) Straily has a good slider, but not a good change, which is why (small sample acknowledged) he has performed worse against lefties so far with a majority of his HR's and BB's given up against them. I'm not so concerned at that as I am the fact he gives up A TON of FB's, and he doesn't dominate righties to the point that his marginal success against lefties can be mitigated.

Edited by mcbane
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You did nothing to sell me, or the board on how he is a "future cy young contender" so you should probably just stop making those proclamations if you don't have the courage of your conviction in explaining what he has in his arsenal that will get him to that point. There are certain ways to get left handed hitters out for right handed pitchers. The change up is the highest % pitch that gives a right handed starter the best chance at keeping them off balance. If you are a right hand starter you need a very good change up, or an elite level, pin point controlled slider that can get in on the hitters hands. Why do we have to annoint all these young players so early? Why can't we just leave it at he has a good chance to be successful at the majors due to being in a big time pitchers park and on a very good team? Why do we have to label all these young guys before they really have a chance to get there feet wet?

If you are a STARTING PITCHER in the MAJOR LEAGUES you need a CHANGEUP. Period, exclamation point.

Incorrect, Alexei Ogando does not have a change up. And he posted a great season in 2011 with his fastball/slider combination. But he has one of the best sliders in the league, and an elite 95+ MPH so he is able to get away with that. There are other pitchers like that too. Obviously, most elite starting pitchers who are a 1-2 in this league have a change up that is very good. But its not the end all. You are starting to go down the pound my chest, and make loud noises avenue of basically saying "I know more than you, you are dumb". That s*** won't fly with me. So I would suggest not ever alluding to that in the future in our debates. I have been studying this game for a long time. Some people have different philosophies on baseball. Why do you think the prospect rankings are different for every site? Different scouts have different tools on how to judge players. There is not one right way of analyzing players. So get off your high horse. I have never taken jabs at you, simply just trying to challenge you to explain something and instead of explaining it you are getting all offended and taking this off course.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brett Anderson was drafted out of HS, Straily was drafted out of college. So you would hope Straily was more polished during his minor league span than Anderson was.

Here are the minor league numbers for both though:

Brett Anderson: 270 IP, 279k's, 56BB's, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 whip.

Brett Anderson showed ELITE level K:BB ratios in the minors. 5:1 BB ratio is almost unheard of. That is flat out, ace type filthy. There is good reason to believe that Brett Anderson is/was going to be a very good major league starting pitcher based on his minor league track record.

Dan Straily: 532.1 ip, 575k's, 162BB's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 whip.

Same with Anderson very good K:BB ratios. His is closer to the 3.5:1 ratio. Same ERA, same WHIP. Both had basically the same minor league track records, showing very good command, very good ability to miss bats.

Now you take Straily's minor league numbers and adjust that to being a "future Cy young award winner" based on his minor league numbers. Yet, Anderson who had very similiar numbers throughout his minor league career, and has shown great ability at the MLB level, "does not have close to the potential of Straily". Your words 2 posts above, not mine. I don't understand how you come to this conclusion. It sounds more like a fan boy type argument than anything of substance honestly.

Well done, we have evidence in this post. Here's my reasoning.

First I want to start by saying Anderson's health seems like it will always be a concern. Yeah get in better shape and you woudln't roll your ankle. No I don't know either of their work out routines but gun to my head I easily say Straily works out harder just look at Brett Anderson.

Secondly Anderson is trending down as he peaked early. Straily is continuing to trend up. That in itself is a huge factor in this. Anderson first rounder drafted out of highschool dominated the minors from the second he toed a professional rubber. Straily drafted out of college out of the 43rd round has shown improvement every year not declination.

Anderson's best K% at the major league level was in his first season in the bigs at 20.4%, he hasn't even been close to that yet in his career (no I'm not counting this year yet obviously).

You are generalizing two minor league careers and putting them next to eachother. Which at first glance sure their minor league career numbers are similar. But when you get more specific into their minor league numbers all signs seem to favor Straily to me.

Straily coming out of college favors him a lot. He has had less time to work with the best coaching in the world than Anderson. So the improvement Straily is showing should be viewed as impressive not as an ignorable small sample like a lot of you guys are acting like.

Straily's has a lot more innings pitched at the higher levels in the minors. Anderson has very few AA and AAA innings. Honestly Anderson last year proved to me where he stands when he had 5 starts at AAA and was an average pitcher there. I know he was just starting to get healthy and all but seriously Straily had better numbers in his first year in the bigs last year than Anderson did in AAA.

Couple this with the fact that just analyzing the pure output of minor league career, yes Straily's minor league numbers are similar but clearly better. Before even factoring all the above.

Honestly I think Anderson's minor league numbers are fairly misleading as most of his innings were against Advanced A ball or lower. His insane K/BB ratio to me means he got away with throwing too many strikes (sure ask and I'll explain this one too).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You need to calm the f*** down. I made zero personal attacks on you. I said you need to have the courage of your conviction. That is being brave enough to stand up for what you believe in. You have danced around my question numerous times and given zero answers to what he has in his arsenal to get left handed batters out. All you said was his change up is good, you are wrong. The pitch got absolutely destroyed by left handed batters last season when he was up at the big leagues. It was rated as a -2.2 on the fangraphs scale because it generated zero swings and misses and almsot everytime he threw it, it got crushed. So maybe that is small sample size fluke, I am not sure but that is all we have to go off of right now. So you are going to have to articulate to me why we should believe he was something in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out at an above average clip. That is all I am asking you to explain to us. I don't make personal attacks on posters, I am here to talk baseball. So I would appreciate it if you would not go down that avenue with me.

And this is about YOU. "You" are the one who told this board he is a future Cy Young contender. So I am challenging you to back it up. If all you have is he was great in the minors in 2012 then lets cut our losses and say agree to disagree and let the results play out.

It was a personal attack and I think I handled it appropriately. Cause it really take so much courage and conviction to post fairly anonymously on a message board.

Obviously fangraphs numbers are wrong. I am a huge supporter in fangraphs and love the site as much as the next fantasy nut. But they got it wrong in this case.

Yes very small sample size and as I have said earlier Dan Straily was very unlucky last year with the HR rate. Extremely unlucky. Even factoring that his OPS against last year (vs lefties) was .768, slightly above league average OPS. Which amazes me. Imagine if the ball wasn't carrying so hard in almost all of his starts last year and the a few of those balls didn't leave the park. His OPS against lefties would have been close to dominate.

Edited by FouLLine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You need to calm the f*** down. I made zero personal attacks on you. I said you need to have the courage of your conviction. That is being brave enough to stand up for what you believe in. You have danced around my question numerous times and given zero answers to what he has in his arsenal to get left handed batters out. All you said was his change up is good, you are wrong. The pitch got absolutely destroyed by left handed batters last season when he was up at the big leagues. It was rated as a -2.2 on the fangraphs scale because it generated zero swings and misses and almsot everytime he threw it, it got crushed. So maybe that is small sample size fluke, I am not sure but that is all we have to go off of right now. So you are going to have to articulate to me why we should believe he was something in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out at an above average clip. That is all I am asking you to explain to us. I don't make personal attacks on posters, I am here to talk baseball. So I would appreciate it if you would not go down that avenue with me.

And this is about YOU. "You" are the one who told this board he is a future Cy Young contender. So I am challenging you to back it up. If all you have is he was great in the minors in 2012 then lets cut our losses and say agree to disagree and let the results play out.

It was a personal attack and I think I handled it appropriately. Cause it really take so much courage and conviction to post fairly anonymously on a message board.

Obviously fangraphs numbers are wrong. I am a huge supporter in fangraphs and love the site as much as the next fantasy nut. But they got it wrong in this case.

Yes very small sample size and as I have said earlier Dan Straily was very unlucky last year with the HR rate. Extremely unlucky. Even factoring that his OPS against last year (vs lefties) was .768, slightly above league average OPS. Which amazes me. Imagine if the ball wasn't carrying so hard in almost all of his starts last year and the a few of those balls didn't leave the park. His OPS against lefties would have been close to dominate.

Where you getting your data from? He had a 1.047 OPS against lefties last season................

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Incorrect, Alexei Ogando does not have a change up. And he posted a great season in 2011 with his fastball/slider combination. But he has one of the best sliders in the league, and an elite 95+ MPH so he is able to get away with that. There are other pitchers like that too. Obviously, most elite starting pitchers who are a 1-2 in this league have a change up that is very good. But its not the end all. You are starting to go down the pound my chest, and make loud noises avenue of basically saying "I know more than you, you are dumb". That s*** won't fly with me. So I would suggest not ever alluding to that in the future in our debates. I have been studying this game for a long time. Some people have different philosophies on baseball. Why do you think the prospect rankings are different for every site? Different scouts have different tools on how to judge players. There is not one right way of analyzing players. So get off your high horse. I have never taken jabs at you, simply just trying to challenge you to explain something and instead of explaining it you are getting all offended and taking this off course.

There's always an exception to the rule. This is baseball.

But here's the real point, you're just arguing with me now. Not trying to make or defend your case, or make your case, but just prove me wrong on anything I say. Because Ogando is a case that would actually disprove you're whole theory of how Straily won't be able to get lefties out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brett Anderson was drafted out of HS, Straily was drafted out of college. So you would hope Straily was more polished during his minor league span than Anderson was.

Here are the minor league numbers for both though:

Brett Anderson: 270 IP, 279k's, 56BB's, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 whip.

Brett Anderson showed ELITE level K:BB ratios in the minors. 5:1 BB ratio is almost unheard of. That is flat out, ace type filthy. There is good reason to believe that Brett Anderson is/was going to be a very good major league starting pitcher based on his minor league track record.

Dan Straily: 532.1 ip, 575k's, 162BB's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 whip.

Same with Anderson very good K:BB ratios. His is closer to the 3.5:1 ratio. Same ERA, same WHIP. Both had basically the same minor league track records, showing very good command, very good ability to miss bats.

Now you take Straily's minor league numbers and adjust that to being a "future Cy young award winner" based on his minor league numbers. Yet, Anderson who had very similiar numbers throughout his minor league career, and has shown great ability at the MLB level, "does not have close to the potential of Straily". Your words 2 posts above, not mine. I don't understand how you come to this conclusion. It sounds more like a fan boy type argument than anything of substance honestly.

Well done, we have evidence in this post. Here's my reasoning.

First I want to start by saying Anderson's health seems like it will always be a concern. Yeah get in better shape and you woudln't roll your ankle. No I don't know either of their work out routines but gun to my head I easily say Straily works out harder just look at Brett Anderson.

Secondly Anderson is trending down as he peaked early. Straily is continuing to trend up. That in itself is a huge factor in this. Anderson first rounder drafted out of highschool dominated the minors from the second he toed a professional rubber. Straily drafted out of college out of the 43rd round has shown improvement every year not declination.

Anderson's best K% at the major league level was in his first season in the bigs at 20.4%, he hasn't even been close to that yet in his career (no I'm not counting this year yet obviously).

You are generalizing two minor league careers and putting them next to eachother. Which at first glance sure their minor league career numbers are similar. But when you get more specific into their minor league numbers all signs seem to favor Straily to me.

Straily coming out of college favors him a lot. He has had less time to work with the best coaching in the world than Anderson. So the improvement Straily is showing should be viewed as impressive not as an ignorable small sample like a lot of you guys are acting like.

Straily's has a lot more innings pitched at the higher levels in the minors. Anderson has very few AA and AAA innings. Honestly Anderson last year proved to me where he stands when he had 5 starts at AAA and was an average pitcher there. I know he was just starting to get healthy and all but seriously Straily had better numbers in his first year in the bigs last year than Anderson did in AAA.

Couple this with the fact that just analyzing the pure output of minor league career, yes Straily's minor league numbers are similar but clearly better. Before even factoring all the above.

Honestly I think Anderson's minor league numbers are fairly misleading as most of his innings were against Advanced A ball or lower. His insane K/BB ratio to me means he got away with throwing too many strikes (sure ask and I'll explain this one too).

This is completely backwards. High schoolers are much more of a gamble than college players. College players aren't at a disadvantage. They typically move through systems faster as they have been playing against better competition. Straily's stats ago at AA batters would carry more weight if Anderson wasn't putting up better numbers vs MLB opponents. Also, I rate doesn't matter at all when other areas are elite. This has been pointed out before, especially when you start looking at Straily being same age/older than avg for a level, whereas Anderson was not.

And there is no rule that I have to ask you a specific, pointed, question for a response. You've thrown out a thesis here, and have sort of refused to back it up. Just for fun though go back to my previous post before this one and answer the very direct questions I ask there. I am very interested in the response.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...