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Daniel Straily 2013 Outlook

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Brett Anderson was drafted out of HS, Straily was drafted out of college. So you would hope Straily was more polished during his minor league span than Anderson was.

Here are the minor league numbers for both though:

Brett Anderson: 270 IP, 279k's, 56BB's, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 whip.

Brett Anderson showed ELITE level K:BB ratios in the minors. 5:1 BB ratio is almost unheard of. That is flat out, ace type filthy. There is good reason to believe that Brett Anderson is/was going to be a very good major league starting pitcher based on his minor league track record.

Dan Straily: 532.1 ip, 575k's, 162BB's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 whip.

Same with Anderson very good K:BB ratios. His is closer to the 3.5:1 ratio. Same ERA, same WHIP. Both had basically the same minor league track records, showing very good command, very good ability to miss bats.

Now you take Straily's minor league numbers and adjust that to being a "future Cy young award winner" based on his minor league numbers. Yet, Anderson who had very similiar numbers throughout his minor league career, and has shown great ability at the MLB level, "does not have close to the potential of Straily". Your words 2 posts above, not mine. I don't understand how you come to this conclusion. It sounds more like a fan boy type argument than anything of substance honestly.

Well done, we have evidence in this post. Here's my reasoning.

First I want to start by saying Anderson's health seems like it will always be a concern. Yeah get in better shape and you woudln't roll your ankle. No I don't know either of their work out routines but gun to my head I easily say Straily works out harder just look at Brett Anderson.

Secondly Anderson is trending down as he peaked early. Straily is continuing to trend up. That in itself is a huge factor in this. Anderson first rounder drafted out of highschool dominated the minors from the second he toed a professional rubber. Straily drafted out of college out of the 43rd round has shown improvement every year not declination.

Anderson's best K% at the major league level was in his first season in the bigs at 20.4%, he hasn't even been close to that yet in his career (no I'm not counting this year yet obviously).

You are generalizing two minor league careers and putting them next to eachother. Which at first glance sure their minor league career numbers are similar. But when you get more specific into their minor league numbers all signs seem to favor Straily to me.

Straily coming out of college favors him a lot. He has had less time to work with the best coaching in the world than Anderson. So the improvement Straily is showing should be viewed as impressive not as an ignorable small sample like a lot of you guys are acting like.

Straily's has a lot more innings pitched at the higher levels in the minors. Anderson has very few AA and AAA innings. Honestly Anderson last year proved to me where he stands when he had 5 starts at AAA and was an average pitcher there. I know he was just starting to get healthy and all but seriously Straily had better numbers in his first year in the bigs last year than Anderson did in AAA.

Couple this with the fact that just analyzing the pure output of minor league career, yes Straily's minor league numbers are similar but clearly better. Before even factoring all the above.

Honestly I think Anderson's minor league numbers are fairly misleading as most of his innings were against Advanced A ball or lower. His insane K/BB ratio to me means he got away with throwing too many strikes (sure ask and I'll explain this one too).

This is completely backwards. High schoolers are much more of a gamble than college players. College players aren't at a disadvantage. They typically move through systems faster as they have been playing against better competition. Straily's stats ago at AA batters would carry more weight if Anderson wasn't putting up better numbers vs MLB opponents. Also, I rate doesn't matter at all when other areas are elite. This has been pointed out before, especially when you start looking at Straily being same age/older than avg for a level, whereas Anderson was not.

And there is no rule that I have to ask you a specific, pointed, question for a response. You've thrown out a thesis here, and have sort of refused to back it up. Just for fun though go back to my previous post before this one and answer the very direct questions I ask there. I am very interested in the response.

I never said anything about the risk of a college player vs a highschool player. That was never mentioned and wouldn't even be relevant at this point in their careers they have both already made it to the majors.

I have no idea what your questions were this thread exploded and I barely had time to write a few responses let alone read through every post.

Repost them.

Now to clarify where you misinterpreted, I didn't say college players don't go through the system faster. But college players generally get to the bigs at an older age. Elite prospect wise.

Just compare the following pitchers all graduated high school in 2002 (year made it to bigs, first season with 130+ innings).

Scott Kazmir (20, 21), Cole Hamels (22, 22), Greinke (23, 23) Matt Cain (20, 21) (Cain must have been moved up a grade?)

to the college pitchers who graduated in 2002 draft in 2006.

Tim Lincecum (23, 23), Brandon Morrow (22, 23), Max Scherzer (23, 24), and Luke Hochevar (23, 25)

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Left-hander Brett Anderson threw what Bob Melvin described as "a very aggressive side" before Sunday's game against the Rays, leaving the A's manager with "a good feeling he will be able to pitch Wednesday."

The A's were worried that Anderson, who left Friday night's loss to the Rays after the first inning because of a sprained right ankle, might have to miss his next start.

"We made him go after it like he was in an actual game," Melvin said after Sunday's bullpen session. "And he felt nothing.

"We pushed him through the rigors today. Now we just have to wait and see how he feels tomorrow."

Just in case a problem arises, however, Dan Straily will probably be held out of his scheduled start for Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday. Should there be a setback Monday with Anderson's ankle, Straily would likely be the pitcher called up to replace him.

Anderson, 1-3, has allowed 11 runs in his past 4 2/3 innings and his ERA has jumped to 5.95.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130421&content_id=45388178&notebook_id=45388410&vkey=notebook_oak&c_id=oak

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Dang, just get injured already so The A's can unleash t

The Straily.

Wishing injuries on players now. Why doesn't this surprise me?

Edited by Neymar

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Doesnt suprise me you didn't contribute anything to the conversation.

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You are ignoring my point. Show me what he has in his arsenal that can get left handed batters out? Specifically to generate swings and misses? His change up was extremely poor last season. His fastball was extremely hittable at 91 MPH. What does he have that will be able to combat left handed hitters from destroying him? I didn't see anything last season. Maybe it was small sample size, maybe nerves, but I am extremely skeptical of him being anything more than a 4-5 starter at the major league level. Nothing shows me he is going to be a star. I think you are putting way too much stock into his 2012 minor league stats. That is basically what you are judging all your opinions off of. Because prior to that he has pretty mediocre in the minors for 3 straight years.

Too much stock? This guy is a pick up off the waiver wire, that only suckers like me actually wasted a draft pick on. Yeah I wish I would have just not drafted him and picked him up. You are acting like I traded an under producing Jay Bruce for him.

On the otherside you guys may want to buy in on his 2012 minor league stats. Prospects can turn the corner with one season.

In regards to his fastball.

Get velocity out of your head. Velocity is the least important factor when pitching to a major league hitter. Kershaw sits 92 - 93 the entire game and has a great fastball. Unless you're hitting 98+ your fastball velocity isn't over powering even the bottom of the order.

Location is the most important factor

Movement being the second most important factor

Deception just may be equally if not more important than the first two factors.

Secondly Straily is another product of a pitcher who used a curveball early in his pro career until he learned a slider from professional coaching. His slider is improving rapidly the more he uses it. Yes it is MLB ready and yes he will back door a ton of lefties with it this year, mark my words.

Now let me further add that I am trained in analyzing baseball players. I am not bragging or trying to be cool I train baseball players for a living highschool and college kids. I actually have 5 hours of private lessons lined up starting in the next hour. Every weekend I am booked solid teaching kids baseball.

Also I have MLB.tv and MiLB.tv season passes just about every year and yes I have personally watched guys that I hype. I do not only go by the stats. But yes I must say stats in the end are king, which makes sense because that is all fantasy baseball is. If you disagree that's fine but please just watch an argument between Harold Reynolds and Brian Kenny and tell me who you agree with then.

I'm really hoping no one ever agrees with Harold Reynolds. Great article the other day on Fangraphs about how objectively wrong he was about CC Sabathia's early game vs late game pitching strategies. Harold played the game, but usually that's an impediment to actually understanding the game.

Anyway. Straily. I posted over in the Anderson thread before this got moved here, and then saw some of this discussion, and if you really are an evaluator I'm sort of befuddled, because there are some very noticeable things about Straily that point to him being an effective if unspectacular MLB pitcher - his velocity, his pitch metrics, and his motion.

You're very right on two things - velocity doesn't matter as much as location. However, if your location stinks, you better have the velocity to get away with it, or the movement to fool the hitter into not squaring it up. Considering Straily's penchant for giving up FB's, which is bad, he needs to have a 93-96 mph FB consistently to get away with it without getting hurt. He doesn't. It's a problem. Some of which we saw on the MLB level with the amount of HR's he gave up. But his era was mid 3's...and you thought he was unlucky. Errr...he was INCREDIBLY lucky. His strand rate was 90% and his xFIP was mid 5's. Straily should have been much worse than he was. I'm sure you could say a lot of that has to do with that other thing I mentioned. The movement he gets that prohibits the hitters from squaring up. Yeah, about that....

So in AAA last year Straily was lights out, which was something of a departure from his previous years in the minors, and he did it without the velocity we all covet. He learned something new! That slider! Yay! Well, unfortunately, as I mentioned in the Anderson thread, to get that new slider to snap, and the additonal velocity and movement on his FB, the A's altered his delivery. In the worst way possible. The A's had him basically adopt the inverted W motion which may as well come with a gift certificate to Dr. James Andrews along with one complimentary UCL ligament. It eats up arms a a ridiculous rate. Straily is seeing the greatest success of his career, but has done it by setting a timebomb on his elbow. And considering his other metrics, this change will probably only make him an above avg pitcher.

These things are pretty easy to see, hell just scan his front page on Fangraphs, or watch him throw a half inning. I don't understand how these things would get overlooked when giving him an objective look with the intention of scouting him. And Cmilne brings up an excellent point - he has no pitch that will be effective against MLB LH's. With a hittable FB that often gets elevated, lefties are going to consistently hurt him.

Here's one.

Here's one.

That being said Foul line was pretty explicit in saying he thinks he'd win a Cy Young, and is better than Brett Anderson, and to those points I would love to hear the reasoning as it is pretty contrary to everything I've seen.

I said he has Cy Young potential. As in shows enough promise to at one point in his career be the best pitcher in baseball for 1 season. Whereas Anderson does not have that potential, not even close to that potential.

Also my points are all over this thread and The Brett Anderson thread.

Er...what? Again, you can't just say something and pass it off as fact. I havent seen an actual rebuttal of anything on here. What anout Straily's pitch grades vs Andersons? What about Straily's FB rate vs Andersons? GB rate? Youve never answered anything brought up about Straily's motion, or his luck from last season. Anderson has always been the one with the "ace" potential, and the "ace" results, and im not really sure how that can be argued. The numbers are right there on their fangraph (or any other sites) pages. Stuff-wise, results-wise, pitching IQ-wise, Anderson has always outperformed Straily. Hell, I like Straily, I just don't understand where this is coming from, because there's nothing but some apparent personal preference being cited here. I even think the people arguing Anderson are being too lenient. The person above listing their minor league numbers didn't even take into account that Anderson was young for every MiLB level, and was pitching successfully in the majors at 21 while Straily was still I'm the low minors. Straily was still in freaking A ball while Anderson was putting up #1 level numbers in the Majors. I just don't get it.

I think you're being unduly swayed by Straily's k numbers in AAA and not looking objectively at the body of work or talent displayed. Either eye or metrics should tell you Anderson is the superior pitcher. Injury will always be a wildcard, Anderson could have enough injuries that his talent degrades while Straily's doesn't....but as I said before Straily is an arm explosion waiting to happen, so I don't shift the weight of that in advantage of either.

***oh and almost forgot to mention this whole changeup thing. I'm not sure what the point of arguing this is as

1) it's a known that you need some sort of secondary pitch that will get out lefties. Whether it's a slider, curve, or change. The reason most people cite a change is that from a righty it should theoretically share the same plane and arm motionlf a fastball but break away from a lefty - hence it being the preferred weapon over a slider that would break inside to a lefty with the potential to be hit out if misplaced, or a curve that probably has no break one way or the other. A 2-seam or split with late action can achieve the same results.

2) not all pitchers have a change. Not sure how that's debatable. Which can lead to some tough splits if it is not substituted for another one of the breaking pitches listed above.

3) Straily has a good slider, but not a good change, which is why (small sample acknowledged) he has performed worse against lefties so far with a majority of his HR's and BB's given up against them. I'm not so concerned at that as I am the fact he gives up A TON of FB's, and he doesn't dominate righties to the point that his marginal success against lefties can be mitigated.

Here's the other. Thanks.

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Brett Anderson was drafted out of HS, Straily was drafted out of college. So you would hope Straily was more polished during his minor league span than Anderson was.

Here are the minor league numbers for both though:

Brett Anderson: 270 IP, 279k's, 56BB's, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 whip.

Brett Anderson showed ELITE level K:BB ratios in the minors. 5:1 BB ratio is almost unheard of. That is flat out, ace type filthy. There is good reason to believe that Brett Anderson is/was going to be a very good major league starting pitcher based on his minor league track record.

Dan Straily: 532.1 ip, 575k's, 162BB's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 whip.

Same with Anderson very good K:BB ratios. His is closer to the 3.5:1 ratio. Same ERA, same WHIP. Both had basically the same minor league track records, showing very good command, very good ability to miss bats.

Now you take Straily's minor league numbers and adjust that to being a "future Cy young award winner" based on his minor league numbers. Yet, Anderson who had very similiar numbers throughout his minor league career, and has shown great ability at the MLB level, "does not have close to the potential of Straily". Your words 2 posts above, not mine. I don't understand how you come to this conclusion. It sounds more like a fan boy type argument than anything of substance honestly.

Well done, we have evidence in this post. Here's my reasoning.

First I want to start by saying Anderson's health seems like it will always be a concern. Yeah get in better shape and you woudln't roll your ankle. No I don't know either of their work out routines but gun to my head I easily say Straily works out harder just look at Brett Anderson.

Secondly Anderson is trending down as he peaked early. Straily is continuing to trend up. That in itself is a huge factor in this. Anderson first rounder drafted out of highschool dominated the minors from the second he toed a professional rubber. Straily drafted out of college out of the 43rd round has shown improvement every year not declination.

Anderson's best K% at the major league level was in his first season in the bigs at 20.4%, he hasn't even been close to that yet in his career (no I'm not counting this year yet obviously).

You are generalizing two minor league careers and putting them next to eachother. Which at first glance sure their minor league career numbers are similar. But when you get more specific into their minor league numbers all signs seem to favor Straily to me.

Straily coming out of college favors him a lot. He has had less time to work with the best coaching in the world than Anderson. So the improvement Straily is showing should be viewed as impressive not as an ignorable small sample like a lot of you guys are acting like.

Straily's has a lot more innings pitched at the higher levels in the minors. Anderson has very few AA and AAA innings. Honestly Anderson last year proved to me where he stands when he had 5 starts at AAA and was an average pitcher there. I know he was just starting to get healthy and all but seriously Straily had better numbers in his first year in the bigs last year than Anderson did in AAA.

Couple this with the fact that just analyzing the pure output of minor league career, yes Straily's minor league numbers are similar but clearly better. Before even factoring all the above.

Honestly I think Anderson's minor league numbers are fairly misleading as most of his innings were against Advanced A ball or lower. His insane K/BB ratio to me means he got away with throwing too many strikes (sure ask and I'll explain this one too).

This is completely backwards. High schoolers are much more of a gamble than college players. College players aren't at a disadvantage. They typically move through systems faster as they have been playing against better competition. Straily's stats ago at AA batters would carry more weight if Anderson wasn't putting up better numbers vs MLB opponents. Also, I rate doesn't matter at all when other areas are elite. This has been pointed out before, especially when you start looking at Straily being same age/older than avg for a level, whereas Anderson was not.

And there is no rule that I have to ask you a specific, pointed, question for a response. You've thrown out a thesis here, and have sort of refused to back it up. Just for fun though go back to my previous post before this one and answer the very direct questions I ask there. I am very interested in the response.

I never said anything about the risk of a college player vs a highschool player. That was never mentioned and wouldn't even be relevant at this point in their careers they have both already made it to the majors.

I have no idea what your questions were this thread exploded and I barely had time to write a few responses let alone read through every post.

Repost them.

Now to clarify where you misinterpreted, I didn't say college players don't go through the system faster. But college players generally get to the bigs at an older age. Elite prospect wise.

Just compare the following pitchers all graduated high school in 2002 (year made it to bigs, first season with 130+ innings).

Scott Kazmir (20, 21), Cole Hamels (22, 22), Greinke (23, 23) Matt Cain (20, 21) (Cain must have been moved up a grade?)

to the college pitchers who graduated in 2002 draft in 2006.

Tim Lincecum (23, 23), Brandon Morrow (22, 23), Max Scherzer (23, 24), and Luke Hochevar (23, 25)

I know what you were implying, and I was saying it's actually another point for Anderson. High School arms generally take longer to develop unless they are elite. High school arms also dont necessarily get to the bigs at a younger age, on average, unless they are elite, because they spend more time developing in the low minors. Check your own list. On avg the high school arms stay in the minors for about 3-4 years, while the college arms stayed for a year or so. The cherry on top is the fact Straily was called up as a 24 year old, after touching every stop in the minors, meaning he spent about 2 extra years, and played at additional stops, other top pitching prospects don't. Anderson moved through the minors about 5 times faster than Straily who had been playing against better competition in college. And you keep only looking at minor league numbers, even actually saying something about Anderson's performance against AAA last year showing he wasn't as good as Straily, I guess comparing similar competition, ignoring the fact that while Straily was in the minors Anderson was putting up elite performances against MLB pitching.

I didn't misinterpret your post, I was pointing out it doesn't mean what you think it means.

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I know what you were implying, and I was saying it's actually another point for Anderson. High School arms generally take longer to develop unless they are elite. High school arms also dont necessarily get to the bigs at a younger age, on average, unless they are elite, because they spend more time developing in the low minors. Check your own list. On avg the high school arms stay in the minors for about 3-4 years, while the college arms stayed for a year or so. The cherry on top is the fact Straily was called up as a 24 year old, after touching every stop in the minors, meaning he spent about 2 extra years, and played at additional stops, other top pitching prospects don't. Anderson moved through the minors about 5 times faster than Straily who had been playing against better competition in college. And you keep only looking at minor league numbers, even actually saying something about Anderson's performance against AAA last year showing he wasn't as good as Straily, I guess comparing similar competition, ignoring the fact that while Straily was in the minors Anderson was putting up elite performances against MLB pitching.

I didn't misinterpret your post, I was pointing out it doesn't mean what you think it means.

Everything I said is exactly what I think it means and know it to mean.

Disprove it, take another class take 2003 for example. Do the research post the results. Take another class, and repeat. Prove my methods wrong if you don't want to take my word for it. I was kind enough to give you one very specific example.

College arms on average do not stay in the minors for a year or so. Only the elite prospects are less than 2 years. Stras, Sale, Lince, Price... Stras and Price were the obvious glaring #1 draft picks. Sale and Lincecum slid down to 13 and 10 due to "scouting flaws". Yet all of these guys zipped through the minors and proved to be aces already at some point in their career.

Those guys are elite. Find me just serviceable SPs that went to college and was only in the minors for a year. There will not be many if any.

So figure even at 1 year in the minors (your claim). You go to college generally for 3 years. So a H.S. arm now has 4 years in the minors. So even that time frame which is the incorrect one you are using still puts them at the bigs at the same age and on average that is just not true. I will put money on it.

Anderson has never had an elite performance at the major league level. Never, not once, not ever.

A 2.80 ERA is very good but over 112.33 innings cannot be considered elite

A 1.19 WHIP is no where near elite

A 7.70 K/9 is not close to elite either.

Those numbers never came over a full season let alone in the same season. Those are his career bests (in seasons where he actually threw over 100 innings).

Straily's peripherals last year in AAA pissed on Anderson's. Granted I'll give you that Anderson should catch someone what of a break as he was returning to health and shaking off rust. But Anderon's K/9 was garbage which I'll give you isn't nearly as important in real baseball as it is in fantasy baseball. But obviously we are measuring this in terms of fantasy purposes.

Straily even pitched just as good if not better against Houston than Anderson did. Anderson had 2 unearned runs whereas Straily had 2 earned runs. Otherwise Straily had a better WHIP and a slightly lower but more weighted K/9.

Also for the record pitching in college is not harder than pitching in the minors. Just look at a college pitcher's college numbers and then compare them to their A ball numbers. A ball and D1 ball are similar competition, Advanced A is clearly better competition than college. I'll throw you that bone even though it doesn't help my side, just cause it's true.

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Im confused why so much focus in here is on Brett Anderson? Last I checked I selected the Daniel Straily thread...

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Looks like he's starting in AAA today. No such luck this week.

Yeah damn it, I think Anderson is going to be able to pitch.

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I know what you were implying, and I was saying it's actually another point for Anderson. High School arms generally take longer to develop unless they are elite. High school arms also dont necessarily get to the bigs at a younger age, on average, unless they are elite, because they spend more time developing in the low minors. Check your own list. On avg the high school arms stay in the minors for about 3-4 years, while the college arms stayed for a year or so. The cherry on top is the fact Straily was called up as a 24 year old, after touching every stop in the minors, meaning he spent about 2 extra years, and played at additional stops, other top pitching prospects don't. Anderson moved through the minors about 5 times faster than Straily who had been playing against better competition in college. And you keep only looking at minor league numbers, even actually saying something about Anderson's performance against AAA last year showing he wasn't as good as Straily, I guess comparing similar competition, ignoring the fact that while Straily was in the minors Anderson was putting up elite performances against MLB pitching.

I didn't misinterpret your post, I was pointing out it doesn't mean what you think it means.

Everything I said is exactly what I think it means and know it to mean.

Disprove it, take another class take 2003 for example. Do the research post the results. Take another class, and repeat. Prove my methods wrong if you don't want to take my word for it. I was kind enough to give you one very specific example.

College arms on average do not stay in the minors for a year or so. Only the elite prospects are less than 2 years. Stras, Sale, Lince, Price... Stras and Price were the obvious glaring #1 draft picks. Sale and Lincecum slid down to 13 and 10 due to "scouting flaws". Yet all of these guys zipped through the minors and proved to be aces already at some point in their career.

Those guys are elite. Find me just serviceable SPs that went to college and was only in the minors for a year. There will not be many if any.

So figure even at 1 year in the minors (your claim). You go to college generally for 3 years. So a H.S. arm now has 4 years in the minors. So even that time frame which is the incorrect one you are using still puts them at the bigs at the same age and on average that is just not true. I will put money on it.

Anderson has never had an elite performance at the major league level. Never, not once, not ever.

A 2.80 ERA is very good but over 112.33 innings cannot be considered elite

A 1.19 WHIP is no where near elite

A 7.70 K/9 is not close to elite either.

Those numbers never came over a full season let alone in the same season. Those are his career bests (in seasons where he actually threw over 100 innings).

Straily's peripherals last year in AAA pissed on Anderson's. Granted I'll give you that Anderson should catch someone what of a break as he was returning to health and shaking off rust. But Anderon's K/9 was garbage which I'll give you isn't nearly as important in real baseball as it is in fantasy baseball. But obviously we are measuring this in terms of fantasy purposes.

Straily even pitched just as good if not better against Houston than Anderson did. Anderson had 2 unearned runs whereas Straily had 2 earned runs. Otherwise Straily had a better WHIP and a slightly lower but more weighted K/9.

Also for the record pitching in college is not harder than pitching in the minors. Just look at a college pitcher's college numbers and then compare them to their A ball numbers. A ball and D1 ball are similar competition, Advanced A is clearly better competition than college. I'll throw you that bone even though it doesn't help my side, just cause it's true.

What am i trying to disprove? College arms take less time to develop than high school arms? I'm fully aware of that. And i thought we were talking about elite prospects/arms, isn't that your whole argument for Straily? and how can you say pitching in college isnt as hard as the minors and then say it is like low A ball? i honestly think you've gotten so turned around trying to defend Straily you dont know which way is up anymore. I'm not sure what taking other draft classes has to do with anything when I've said over and over it doesn't matter. Straily took longer in the minors, at lower levels, than Anderson did at younger ages. Straily's AAA stats aren't impressive in the way you think they are because A) elite prospects usually don't play at AAA and B) Anderson was pitching against major league opponents. Also, when a pitcher is 22 years old putting up 2.80era's and 1.19whips, those are elite. Straily's AAA numbers are not more impressive in any way shape or form, because, even though it's in a launching pad league, it's not major league competition. The k rate thing has already been discussed as naseum as to how it doesn't matter, but you keep bringing it up, so I don't know what to say about that. Anyway, you failed to address some of the other stuff:

Straily's FB rate

Straily's luck from last season

Straily's horrible arm motion/future injury risk after he A's changed his motion.

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What am i trying to disprove? College arms take less time to develop than high school arms? I'm fully aware of that. And i thought we were talking about elite prospects/arms, isn't that your whole argument for Straily? and how can you say pitching in college isnt as hard as the minors and then say it is like low A ball? i honestly think you've gotten so turned around trying to defend Straily you dont know which way is up anymore. I'm not sure what taking other draft classes has to do with anything when I've said over and over it doesn't matter. Straily took longer in the minors, at lower levels, than Anderson did at younger ages. Straily's AAA stats aren't impressive in the way you think they are because A) elite prospects usually don't play at AAA and B) Anderson was pitching against major league opponents. Also, when a pitcher is 22 years old putting up 2.80era's and 1.19whips, those are elite. Straily's AAA numbers are not more impressive in any way shape or form, because, even though it's in a launching pad league, it's not major league competition. The k rate thing has already been discussed as naseum as to how it doesn't matter, but you keep bringing it up, so I don't know what to say about that. Anyway, you failed to address some of the other stuff:

Straily's FB rate

Straily's luck from last season

Straily's horrible arm motion/future injury risk after he A's changed his motion.

The only point you have is that Straily has an inverted W delivery. But with how good surgeries are and how hard he doesn't throw which you all have pointed out far too many times I'm not all that worried about it and am still certain he will pitch more innings than Brett Anderson from now till the end of their careers.

I don't know what you're not getting about what I've said about college prospects vs high school prospects. My writing has been super clear cut.

Yeah college is somewhere between low A and A ball. A ball is honestly probably a higher level of competition. Deeper lineups, better overall hitters, the only reason I say college is even equal to it is because of metal bats. Meaning mistakes get hammered even harder and some guys get away with cheap jam shot flairs and even worse cheap HRs that wouldn't even come close to the warning track with wood.

K rate is important. Do you realize that over 30% of major league plate appearances result in either a K, BB, or a HR. 30% of the all plate appearances the ball is never even put into play. Strikeouts are important. Don't get it crossed up. Why are the best pitchers in the league able to strike out over a batter an inning? There are reasons for it.

Now strikeouts are far more important in fantasy than in real life baseball. But that's what we are talking about here. Sure Anderson may be able to hang close with Straily on WHIP and ERA but when it comes to K's I don't see him being close. This is a point I already made for you so don't tell me I'm not aware of it when I have clearly stated this already.

Edited by dzemens
Removed portion that will only further debase the conversation.

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A 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 11.1K/9 in the PCL will get anyone hype.

There is a fine difference between hype and praise.

What Straily did the past two seasons in the minors deserves a lot of praise. It isn't hype. No one was drafting this guy before Julio Teheran. That is hype. Hell Straily went undrafted in almost every league out there. He was owned in 1% of leagues when the season started.

Dominating the PCL is not easy. A pitcher who dominated in The PCL is a pitcher I'm much more likely to take chance on than some guy who is in a rotation right now but is just an average pitcher who has never progressed as a player.

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A 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 11.1K/9 in the PCL will get anyone hype.

There is a fine difference between hype and praise.

What Straily did the past two seasons in the minors deserves a lot of praise. It isn't hype. No one was drafting this guy before Julio Teheran. That is hype. Hell Straily went undrafted in almost every league out there. He was owned in 1% of leagues when the season started.

Dominating the PCL is not easy. A pitcher who dominated in The PCL is a pitcher I'm much more likely to take chance on than some guy who is in a rotation right now but is just an average pitcher who has never progressed as a player.

I agree, and I think the "praise" or "hype" or whatever you want to call it is indeed well-deserved. I was one of the few who drafted Straily and will patiently keep him in the wings.

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A 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 11.1K/9 in the PCL will get anyone hype.

There is a fine difference between hype and praise.

What Straily did the past two seasons in the minors deserves a lot of praise. It isn't hype. No one was drafting this guy before Julio Teheran. That is hype. Hell Straily went undrafted in almost every league out there. He was owned in 1% of leagues when the season started.

Dominating the PCL is not easy. A pitcher who dominated in The PCL is a pitcher I'm much more likely to take chance on than some guy who is in a rotation right now but is just an average pitcher who has never progressed as a player.

I actually drafted both. Reached for Tehran so he was like 4 rounds before Straily. Both still riding the pine not contributing much to the W totals yet...

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I agree, and I think the "praise" or "hype" or whatever you want to call it is indeed well-deserved. I was one of the few who drafted Straily and will patiently keep him in the wings.

Me too.

Yeah I guess hype and praise are fairly close to one another. But when a guy is going undrafted in most leagues with this kind of upside, he is exact opposite of hyped. Then to see how passionate people are about how they think he will fail at the big league level puts even less hype on him.

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What am i trying to disprove? College arms take less time to develop than high school arms? I'm fully aware of that. And i thought we were talking about elite prospects/arms, isn't that your whole argument for Straily? and how can you say pitching in college isnt as hard as the minors and then say it is like low A ball? i honestly think you've gotten so turned around trying to defend Straily you dont know which way is up anymore. I'm not sure what taking other draft classes has to do with anything when I've said over and over it doesn't matter. Straily took longer in the minors, at lower levels, than Anderson did at younger ages. Straily's AAA stats aren't impressive in the way you think they are because A) elite prospects usually don't play at AAA and B) Anderson was pitching against major league opponents. Also, when a pitcher is 22 years old putting up 2.80era's and 1.19whips, those are elite. Straily's AAA numbers are not more impressive in any way shape or form, because, even though it's in a launching pad league, it's not major league competition. The k rate thing has already been discussed as naseum as to how it doesn't matter, but you keep bringing it up, so I don't know what to say about that. Anyway, you failed to address some of the other stuff:

Straily's FB rate

Straily's luck from last season

Straily's horrible arm motion/future injury risk after he A's changed his motion.

The only point you have is that Straily has an inverted W delivery. But with how good surgeries are and how hard he doesn't throw which you all have pointed out far too many times I'm not all that worried about it and am still certain he will pitch more innings than Brett Anderson from now till the end of their careers.

I don't know what you're not getting about what I've said about college prospects vs high school prospects. My writing has been super clear cut.

Yeah college is somewhere between low A and A ball. A ball is honestly probably a higher level of competition. Deeper lineups, better overall hitters, the only reason I say college is even equal to it is because of metal bats. Meaning mistakes get hammered even harder and some guys get away with cheap jam shot flairs and even worse cheap HRs that wouldn't even come close to the warning track with wood.

K rate is important. Do you realize that over 30% of major league plate appearances result in either a K, BB, or a HR. 30% of the all plate appearances the ball is never even put into play. Strikeouts are important. Don't get it crossed up. Why are the best pitchers in the league able to strike out over a batter an inning? There are reasons for it.

Now strikeouts are far more important in fantasy than in real life baseball. But that's what we are talking about here. Sure Anderson may be able to hang close with Straily on WHIP and ERA but when it comes to K's I don't see him being close. This is a point I already made for you so don't tell me I'm not aware of it when I have clearly stated this already.

K rate is important, with all things being relatively equal. As has been pointed out multiple times these aren't equal arms. If Anderson didn't have the elite breaking pitches/control, GB rates, and HR's allowed rates, I would, somewhat agree with you. I thinking muddying the discussion between fantasy and real life as I quite enjoy Anderson's ratios in both. And I'm not trying to be obtuse about the college v high school thing but we're applet having two seperate discussions. You said that it's in Straily's favor to have pitched in college and at higher levels of the minors. I disagree. It's actually a point against your argument, as it shows the quality of arm Anderson is for him to move so quickly through the minors, skip levels, and have better numbers against MLB opponents than Straily did against AA/AAA batters in the same time frame.

That leads to Straily now, dominating the PCL. It is a very good sign that he can be a good MLB pitcher. That discussion is seperate from is he better than Anderson. For one, the K rate will probably not translate, it alms of never does. MLB batters are better. Secondly Straily was INSANELY lucky last season. As pointed out before his swinging strike rate, FB rate, runners stranded rate, xFIP, etc, all point to a roughly league avg pitcher. I compared him to Javier Vazquez in his later year, when he lost some velocity, before he gained it back right before he retired. Some nights he'll look great and K 10, other nights he'll get bombed because his pitches are very hittable.

I don't see anything in your posts really addressing these completely valid concerns brought up by numerous people, except to sort of veer into other avenues of discussion, or to question the veracity of stats on Fangraphs. I don't really see any reason to question what I think of Straily. But more so than some other arguments I don't even really see the other side because your points keep shifting, and questions are left unanswered. It's sort of like the inverted W, I guess it's not that big a deal? If it isn't, and it leads to TJ surgery, then why would you be certain Straily would pitch more than Anderson when that's the same surgery Anderson already had, and the main concern going forward with his pitch type? I don't see how that logic follows.

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K rate is important, with all things being relatively equal. As has been pointed out multiple times these aren't equal arms. If Anderson didn't have the elite breaking pitches/control, GB rates, and HR's allowed rates, I would, somewhat agree with you. I thinking muddying the discussion between fantasy and real life as I quite enjoy Anderson's ratios in both. And I'm not trying to be obtuse about the college v high school thing but we're applet having two seperate discussions. You said that it's in Straily's favor to have pitched in college and at higher levels of the minors. I disagree. It's actually a point against your argument, as it shows the quality of arm Anderson is for him to move so quickly through the minors, skip levels, and have better numbers against MLB opponents than Straily did against AA/AAA batters in the same time frame.

That leads to Straily now, dominating the PCL. It is a very good sign that he can be a good MLB pitcher. That discussion is seperate from is he better than Anderson. For one, the K rate will probably not translate, it alms of never does. MLB batters are better. Secondly Straily was INSANELY lucky last season. As pointed out before his swinging strike rate, FB rate, runners stranded rate, xFIP, etc, all point to a roughly league avg pitcher. I compared him to Javier Vazquez in his later year, when he lost some velocity, before he gained it back right before he retired. Some nights he'll look great and K 10, other nights he'll get bombed because his pitches are very hittable.

I don't see anything in your posts really addressing these completely valid concerns brought up by numerous people, except to sort of veer into other avenues of discussion, or to question the veracity of stats on Fangraphs. I don't really see any reason to question what I think of Straily. But more so than some other arguments I don't even really see the other side because your points keep shifting, and questions are left unanswered. It's sort of like the inverted W, I guess it's not that big a deal? If it isn't, and it leads to TJ surgery, then why would you be certain Straily would pitch more than Anderson when that's the same surgery Anderson already had, and the main concern going forward with his pitch type? I don't see how that logic follows.

What are these concerns? Spell them out. Quit hiding in long sentences of circle talking.

His HR rate? That's the concern I have addressed this multiple times. It was obviously the result of bad luck I addressed this in quite detail. Feel free to look for it, it's in this thread maybe in the Anderson.

Question fangraphs? Really?? If you've never questioned fangraphs than you just don't know what you're doing. You do not know how they came up with all those numbers, you do not know the method they used, you do not know who was the one taking down the data. There are a lot of factors that you have absolutely no idea about. Sure you have an idea of how some of it is done and don't get me wrong fangraphs is probably my favorite site out there but that doesn't make them 100% bullet proof and doesn't mean that there aren't errors.

Secondly even if what htey reported was accurate and their methods were perfect it was an extremely small sample at the end of the longest pro season Dan Straily has had.

You are holding small sample negatives against him from the first time he ever pitched in the bigs. That is just silly.

Kershaw had a 1.50 WHIP his frist year in the bigs, he had "no control" and walked everyone.

Justin Verlander's first 11 inning stint in the bigs, wow no chance he could be an ace.

Yu Darvish had a 4.19 as a 25 year old rookie!! Very poor command never will have the control it takes to be an ace.

What's your next point he had a bad FIP / xFIP in the majors? Small sample, look at his minor league FIPs they were great.

Besides I really do not care about FIP. FIP is not a real stat to me. It is one of those over valued sabermetrics that just caught internet buzz by fantasy fanboys that don't really know baseball because BABIP was such a good stat they wanted to get on the next great sabermetric.

I'll admit I do not know everything about FIP and xFIP, but I saw enough to not be impressed as well as it was never clearly defined to me as why it is the way that it is. Do you know why they multiply HR allowed by 13? Please enlighten me on that. Did you know FIP and xFIP alike doesn't feel as if a pitcher can control how many hits are surrendered? Tom Tango makes that clear when he defined FIP. That to me is entirely wrong. I will never believe that. I understand there is an uncontrolable aspect to a certain degree but have you ever looked at the all time great pitchers and hitter's BABIPs best seasons and career? They are almost all in the "lucky" zone.

FIP also is wrong because they try to adjust it to quantify the final number to a number we are fimilar with, a 3.00 FIP is good, etc. Kind of like when BABIP (one of my favorite metrics) was first introduced. True BABIP was adjusted to make league average of BABIP .300, by multiplying by 2.82 instead of 3. This has been changed recently.

Even as much as I love BABIP I know where and how to take it with the appropriate amount of salt. Some pitchers and hitters are not effected by BABIP as much as others. But there are methods you can use to find out who these players are and how much they are effected.

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That leads to Straily now, dominating the PCL. It is a very good sign that he can be a good MLB pitcher. That discussion is seperate from is he better than Anderson. For one, the K rate will probably not translate, it alms of never does. MLB batters are better. Secondly Straily was INSANELY lucky last season. As pointed out before his swinging strike rate, FB rate, runners stranded rate, xFIP, etc, all point to a roughly league avg pitcher. I compared him to Javier Vazquez in his later year, when he lost some velocity, before he gained it back right before he retired. Some nights he'll look great and K 10, other nights he'll get bombed because his pitches are very hittable.

This is not ture. Yes K% generally sees a dip from AAA to the majors. But it usually is not a whole lot and there are cases where it gets even better. But all beneficial stats are harder to come by at the major league level compared to the minors.

Keep in mind that the majors have the best coaches on average.

As well as catchers in the majors leagues not only know how to call a better game the hitters (who like you said are in fact much better than AAA) weaknesses are a lot more abundant. As major league clubs pay people good salaries to unearth these tenancies.

As well as a lot of young players their first time through the bigs can catch the league by surprise as they have not seen this pitcher before and know very little about them.

A few examples of players who's K/9 saw a nice uptick upon entering the majors.

Matt Harvey, Jeff Samardzjia, and R.A. Dickey (recent years) are recent guys who have shown a legit increase in K/9 at the big league level compared to what they did in the minors. Some less recent examples Halladay, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow.

RPs have good examples too Kimbrel, Aroldis, Holland, and so may more.

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That leads to Straily now, dominating the PCL. It is a very good sign that he can be a good MLB pitcher. That discussion is seperate from is he better than Anderson. For one, the K rate will probably not translate, it alms of never does. MLB batters are better. Secondly Straily was INSANELY lucky last season. As pointed out before his swinging strike rate, FB rate, runners stranded rate, xFIP, etc, all point to a roughly league avg pitcher. I compared him to Javier Vazquez in his later year, when he lost some velocity, before he gained it back right before he retired. Some nights he'll look great and K 10, other nights he'll get bombed because his pitches are very hittable.

This is not ture. Yes K% generally sees a dip from AAA to the majors. But it usually is not a whole lot and there are cases where it gets even better. But all beneficial stats are harder to come by at the major league level compared to the minors.

Keep in mind that the majors have the best coaches on average.

As well as catchers in the majors leagues not only know how to call a better game the hitters (who like you said are in fact much better than AAA) weaknesses are a lot more abundant. As major league clubs pay people good salaries to unearth these tenancies.

As well as a lot of young players their first time through the bigs can catch the league by surprise as they have not seen this pitcher before and know very little about them.

A few examples of players who's K/9 saw a nice uptick upon entering the majors.

Matt Harvey, Jeff Samardzjia, and R.A. Dickey (recent years) are recent guys who have shown a legit increase in K/9 at the big league level compared to what they did in the minors. Some less recent examples Halladay, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow.

RPs have good examples too Kimbrel, Aroldis, Holland, and so may more.

You quote nothing but high velocity pitchers and then say velocity doesn't matter. You take guys who are top level graded ace potential people and chart their progress as if it was the norm. I'm not really interested in what Kershaw or Darvish did as they progressed because they have no relevance on Straily. They're completely different. I wouldn't compare Anderson to Kershaw or potentially Darvish. Kershaw and Darvish because they have plus breaking pitches and high velocity. You're not comparing apples to apples. Sor of my long all along.

And my concerns over Straily's FB and HR rates are they tend to be linked. If ones high so's the other. Straily's is high. His strand rate was high. His other metrics don't support his era. And I'm sorry, but I won't take your word for it that Fangrpahs is wrong just cause.

I think I keep pretty succinctly laying out my questions and you won't answer any of them. You can say whatever you want about me personally, I don't mind, but it would be nice if you answered a question or two as well as to the belief Straily is a Cy Young caliber talent. Asked about his changeup? Deflect. Asked about his metrics? Blame Fangraphs. I think CMilne and others have asked perfectly legitamite questions and we get these reponses. Too bad.

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Lets move on...

20080202231407!Beating-a-dead-horse.gif

I never usually agree with this sentiment, but in this case, yeah.

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