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LyondellBasell

Mark Teixeira 2013 Outlook

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talk about a guy no one is excited about ... teix will be 33 in April ... he had an injury plagued season in 2013. if it wasn't the wrist, it was the calf, and so on, and so on ...

still, in just 123 games, he gave us 84 Rbi and 24 HR, and is line drive rate was marginally highest he's put up over the past 3 seasons. that said, we saw a big spike in ground balls to 41.1% from 34.9% in the prior year, yet it's notable that in the heart of his prime in 2008 he had a 42.8% ground ball rate.

with power at a premium now throughout the league, i still think teix is a difference-maker in fantasy, despite the near certainty his average will be .250ish (his walk rate dipped in '12, but so did his k rate).

it's reasonable to think that with good health he has one more banner year left. bill james actually seems bullish, projecting 35 bombs.

ADP will be interesting. In a 12 team pitcher-heavy CBS analysts h2h mock i keep referencing, he went 46th overall, back of the 4th round (2 picks ahead of Allen Craig, 9 picks after Billy Butler, 46 picks ahead of Freddy Freeman).

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Could he rebound? Sure. But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season. Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

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Could he rebound? Sure. But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season. Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

If the early adp is any indicator, he will be a tremendous value in 2013. While I get the "upside" argument completely, I tend to think he still has plenty in the tank left, and 2012 was simply a lost year for Tex. I've read different quotes from him during the fall that he had a fairy serious viral issue during the early half of the year which impacted him negatively, and then of course the injuries in the 2nd half derailed his year altogether. While the BA will never be what it was in his Texas days, the power production had remained steady until last season. I'm very curious to see what the auction value will be, but I can absolutely say that if he remains in that 40-50 adp outlier, he'll be on quite a few of my teams this season.

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Could he rebound? Sure. But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season. Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

The 30 HR potential is very real. If that doesn't count as "upside" I don't know what does.

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his OPS has declined for literally 5 straight seasons. He is a rock solid regular but he's not what people think he is anymore. There are almost certainly better options. His overall numbers look deceiving because he was worthless for huge stretches- but he seemed to pile on the red sox. Throw out those games and you pretty much have Eric Hosmer without the steals.

I won a title with him on my team last year, but he was nowhere near worth the 35 bucks I paid to land him. If he's in the 10 dollar range I'll look at him this year, but some idiot yankee homer in every league will overpay, so his ADP will not be indicative of the value you actually get for him.

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His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map. Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons

vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP

vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09

vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP

vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

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His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map. Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons

vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP

vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09

vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP

vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium. Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is. .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April. You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

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Could he rebound? Sure. But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season. Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

The 30 HR potential is very real. If that doesn't count as "upside" I don't know what does.

So does Adam Laroche. Big deal!

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Short porch in Yankee stadium ruined Teixeira. Great hitter before he became an all or nothing pull happy. Boom goes the dynamite on that batting avg.

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His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map. Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons

vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP

vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09

vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP

vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium. Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is. .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April. You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

I agree with this... but everyone seems to be off the bandwagon so he might even be a value pick with that projected stat line.

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His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map. Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons

vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP

vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09

vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP

vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium. Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is. .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April. You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

I agree with this... but everyone seems to be off the bandwagon so he might even be a value pick with that projected stat line.

It really depends where other low avg/decent home run guys are going. Adam Dunn should probably be drafted above Tex this year especially in leagues that count BB/OBP.

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His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map. Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons

vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP

vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09

vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP

vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium. Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is. .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April. You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

I agree with this... but everyone seems to be off the bandwagon so he might even be a value pick with that projected stat line.

It really depends where other low avg/decent home run guys are going. Adam Dunn should probably be drafted above Tex this year especially in leagues that count BB/OBP.

not in 5x5 though. hit .159 and .204 the last 2 years.

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Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

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Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

yea, i mean of all the guys to 'avoid like the plague' ... hate has gone too far.

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Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

Jeters hurt

Arods hurt

Ibanez and Swisher are gone

Suzuki is done

Jones is in Japan I last heard

that leaves Cano, Granderson and Tex

pitchers could walk all 3 in a row and still get out of the inning because of how terrible NYYs lineup is

I'm avoiding everything Yankee this upcoming season

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Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

Jeters hurt

Arods hurt

Ibanez and Swisher are gone

Suzuki is done

Jones is in Japan I last heard

that leaves Cano, Granderson and Tex

pitchers could walk all 3 in a row and still get out of the inning because of how terrible NYYs lineup is

I'm avoiding everything Yankee this upcoming season

they have work to do but Ichiro, Jeter, Cano, Grandy, Tex, Youk, Gardner (he should leadoff imo but won't) plus whomever they can sign cheaply to replace Swisher will score some runs in that bandbox and in the other hitters havens in the East.

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Which Ichiro shows up?

Jeter will miss time, how does he respond when he comes back? The guys is grossly out of shape for a SS.

Cano and Grandy are studs.

Tex already said my piece on him.

Which Youk shows up? Does he pull a Adam Dunn and becomes comeback player of the year?

Gardner I won't hold my breath on

Tides are turning IMO for the once almighty NYY (and I don't hate the Yankees, I even have their cap :o)

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sure the yankees will take a step back, but they play in yankee stadium. and how many lineups are there in MLB that have guys in them as good as teix, cano and granderson? not many. you can't draft all reds, blue jays and angels.

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He was a player I really liked until he signed with the Empire. He was a throwback player who could dominate just as much with the glove as he did with the bat. He could pepper the ball to all fields and mash with the best of them. Then the Yankees massed up his swing and approach even though it was already great. A guy like Granderson who needed a serious rehaul it makes sense but Teixeira didn't need much work if any at all. Now he is just a pull happy player and his switch hitting ability has turned into more of a liability than strength. I still like to target him though but I am big on power guys and am more than willing to take the BA hit. If his value keeps dropping I will no doubt end up with him on a lot of my teams.

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Staying FAR FAR AWAY ( I MEAN LIKE THEY TALK ABOUT IN STAR WARS) from this clown. Numbers have regressed dramatically for 4 straight seasons playing in a favorable ballpark and in a stacked lineup (generally). I cant see much if any reason for optimism with Tex.

Im taking guys like Ryan Howard, Freeman, Laroche, Goldschmidt all before I touch tex...

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Staying FAR FAR AWAY ( I MEAN LIKE THEY TALK ABOUT IN STAR WARS) from this clown. Numbers have regressed dramatically for 4 straight seasons playing in a favorable ballpark and in a stacked lineup (generally). I cant see much if any reason for optimism with Tex.

Im taking guys like Ryan Howard, Freeman, Laroche, Goldschmidt all before I touch tex...

And you might be able to grab them after tex gets taken too. I haven't looked at the early adp for him yet but I'm sure it's still higher then it should be. I also would rather have konerko too and possibly hosmer because he has more upside and will probably go much later

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Yeah all the optimism brewing in this thread stems from a supposed discount on his services but adp-wise and just eyeballing his value in my dynasty leagues people still rate him highly (like top 5 rounds high). And that's not even to speak of the Yankee homers in your league that probably grab him in the 3rd round after drafting granderson and arod (then immediately exclaim what do you mean he had surgery?!) in rounds 1-2.

I see reason for optimism at the right price (late middle rounds) but I don't see the expectation that you get him there as very realistic.

As others have said there are the goldschmidt types who you can get better deals on whose ceilings are higher than .255 33 100.

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Staying FAR FAR AWAY ( I MEAN LIKE THEY TALK ABOUT IN STAR WARS) from this clown. Numbers have regressed dramatically for 4 straight seasons playing in a favorable ballpark and in a stacked lineup (generally). I cant see much if any reason for optimism with Tex.

Im taking guys like Ryan Howard, Freeman, Laroche, Goldschmidt all before I touch tex...

Howard is on a steeper decline than Tex, LaRoche's out-of-his-mind career year matched Tex's decline years (factoring in that Tex missed 39 games), Goldschmidt will definitely get drafted higher than Tex (as he should), and personally Freeman doesn't do much for me. I can definitely see Freeman getting drafted ahead of Tex too.

we'll definitely have to see about the ADP though. I can see him going where Youk went last year, 7th/8th round. enough people will avoid him out of principle that he might slip outside of the first 100 picks in a lot of drafts.

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If the price-tag is low enough, I will buy. It's clear these shifts have to had some sort of effect because his line-drive rate, ground ball rate, and fly ball rate this past season were all similar to his early season career when he was a .300 hitter. His iso was also still strong last year. I play in an al-only roto league, so his early season swoons wouldn't affect me as much since obviously it is his final numbers that matter. This could be a chance to get a 35 homer, 110 rbi, 90 run player on a bit of a discount. Then again, he has a big name (still, I'd imagine) so he probably doesn't come off at TOO much of a discount. I think batting average can always vary in any given year; who's to say his babip isn't .280+ this year? If he manages even a .270 average, it's possible he's a top 20 overall player.

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