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Posting In The Clutch

Carlos Gomez 2013 Outlook

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What do we make of him? Could be a very cheap source of HRs and SBs. I think the breakout he had last year is for real. The skill set has always been there.

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What do we make of him? Could be a very cheap source of HRs and SBs. I think the breakout he had last year is for real. The skill set has always been there.

I think he'll be a great player to own in 2013. He will be had a very fair value and contribute everywhere.

I think he's really taken his game to the next level. Potential All-Star next year, but he will probably be one of the last guys snubbed out due him not being a very mainstream player just yet.

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he still strikes me as a very up and down streaky player... even in the second half last year where he would put together scorching hot weeks, he'd then fall off the cliff completely for like the next 10 days ... was tough to own in h2h.

earlier in the off-season there was some talk the brewers were looking to acquire OFs, which led to speculation he wouldn't even have the starting gig.

i'll watch this situation close in the spring. he certainly has all the tools ... but he does seem to be lacking in the mental arena.

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I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.

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I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.

His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.

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I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.

His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.

Perhaps, I wouldnt say far. Think its pretty possible for Stubbs to come close to 30 homers and steal 50 bases....upside wise. I'm not sure that you can project gomez for "far" beyond that.

I'm curious to see where they both go in drafts. Rather have Gomez strictly because he seemed to have a breakout last year, but if he's going to be a trendy guy for that reason and have to reach for him as a high OF 3 or low OF 2, I'll pass... because he has the slumps that will kill you and make you want to throw something at your computer after a 2/50 day that year your team has off of Gomez' 4th 0/4 in a row.

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the OBP is a killer. GoGo got about half his starts at the top of the lineup, and half at the bottom because he makes so many outs. that's what's really going to cap his downside. in a career year he had a .305 OBP. failing to get on base at a decent clip means 100 runs or 50 steals are unlikely. I definitely like him though, and hopefully he will stop losing starts to Nyjer Morgan, who is basically just a worse version of GoGo.

the good part is of the 5 hitting 5x5 categories, HR and SB are the most reliable ones and AVG, R, RBI are more susceptible to lineup changes, luck, etc. if things break the right way he can be a top 25 OF.

more realistically, something like .260 with 17 hr, 40 sb, 80 runs, 60 rbi would be a reasonable projection, with upside for more.

Stubbs is a pretty good comp actually. main difference is I'm more inclined to believe Gomez is still growing as a batter, whereas Stubbs feels to me like he's peaked.

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I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.

His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.

Perhaps, I wouldnt say far. Think its pretty possible for Stubbs to come close to 30 homers and steal 50 bases....upside wise. I'm not sure that you can project gomez for "far" beyond that.

I'm curious to see where they both go in drafts. Rather have Gomez strictly because he seemed to have a breakout last year, but if he's going to be a trendy guy for that reason and have to reach for him as a high OF 3 or low OF 2, I'll pass... because he has the slumps that will kill you and make you want to throw something at your computer after a 2/50 day that year your team has off of Gomez' 4th 0/4 in a row.

Stubbs will never even go 30 / 50. Gomez on the other hand might be able to. Gomez and Stubbs are similar but Gomez is faster has more power and is just a better hitter.

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I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.

His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.

Perhaps, I wouldnt say far. Think its pretty possible for Stubbs to come close to 30 homers and steal 50 bases....upside wise. I'm not sure that you can project gomez for "far" beyond that.

I'm curious to see where they both go in drafts. Rather have Gomez strictly because he seemed to have a breakout last year, but if he's going to be a trendy guy for that reason and have to reach for him as a high OF 3 or low OF 2, I'll pass... because he has the slumps that will kill you and make you want to throw something at your computer after a 2/50 day that year your team has off of Gomez' 4th 0/4 in a row.

Stubbs will never even go 30 / 50. Gomez on the other hand might be able to. Gomez and Stubbs are similar but Gomez is faster has more power and is just a better hitter.

It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.

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It's extremely unlikely either guy goes 30/50 so I don't see how it matters if one guy has a .5% chance and the other has a .1% chance. I'm more concerned about realistic outcomes than perceived "ceilings" that are completely arbitrary.

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It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.

Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.

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It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.

Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.

that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.

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It's extremely unlikely either guy goes 30/50 so I don't see how it matters if one guy has a .5% chance and the other has a .1% chance. I'm more concerned about realistic outcomes than perceived "ceilings" that are completely arbitrary.

Realistically I think Gomez can do 25 HRs and 35 SB while maintaining a batting average over .260 with 100 run potential.

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It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.

Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.

that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.

Agreed 100%. Which is why I'll be keying Gomez and I think Stubbs will go at the end of the draft or undrafted this year.

Gomez broke out last year. Whereas Stubbs continued to fade and fall off.

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It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.

Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.

that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.

Agreed 100%. Which is why I'll be keying Gomez and I think Stubbs will go at the end of the draft or undrafted this year.

Gomez broke out last year. Whereas Stubbs continued to fade and fall off.

Stubbs will not go undrafted I think. I still think he'll go as a top 60-70 OF. Which makes im a 5th OF in 12 team 5 OF leagues. In shallow 10 team 3 OF leagues, probably, but he has upside and is worth drafting at the end of drafts to see how he starts the season. If he's your 5th starter, you could probably do worse and worst case scenario you could drop him for whoever starts out hot on waivers.

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It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.

Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.

that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.

Agreed 100%. Which is why I'll be keying Gomez and I think Stubbs will go at the end of the draft or undrafted this year.

Gomez broke out last year. Whereas Stubbs continued to fade and fall off.

Stubbs will not go undrafted I think. I still think he'll go as a top 60-70 OF. Which makes im a 5th OF in 12 team 5 OF leagues. In shallow 10 team 3 OF leagues, probably, but he has upside and is worth drafting at the end of drafts to see how he starts the season. If he's your 5th starter, you could probably do worse and worst case scenario you could drop him for whoever starts out hot on waivers.

I think Stubbs probably goes undrafted in about half standard 12 team leagues.

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Where would you rank him in an OBP league?

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The upside to Gomez is he should have the fulltime gig, which projecting his counting stats puts him in the 20/40 club. However, with the breakout of Aoki, he may be dropped way down in the lineup which will limit some ability to steal and of course runs.

Owners such as myself must hope that he can continue to improve on his hit tool and work on drawing more walks to reassume the coveted leadoff position.

FG did a nice little write-up on his power breakout trending to be real:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/carlos-gomez-breaks-out-kinda/

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Thoughts on this guy? Going around the 9th round in 12 team leagues, he was like a top 5 OF the second half of last year. 37 steals in under 500 AB's, the speed is very much legit, he has a great success rate as well. The power and average... I don't really know. I think he's going to be streaky as hell, but I really think Gomez can be as equivalent to what BJ Upton has been these last few years. He strikes out a ton, he never walks, he tries to yank everything he sees out of the park, he's a big fly ball hitter... All those things are a recipe for disaster in terms of average and long cold spells, but you have to think his speed helps his BABIP some as well.

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Where would you rank him in an OBP league?

In OBP leagues it would be sensible to drop him in the rankings some, because it's just unrealistic to expect much more than .300-.310 OBP. You have to like him for the HR/SB combo, but take him based on those 15-18 Hr and 32-40 SB being all he's worth, forget the OBP. If he really steps up and gets to .325 or better, it's just gravy. But don't buy him expecting it. He's really creeping up ADP lists, I'm not as thrilled with him in the top 150, anyhow. But I'll happily take him several rounds later than Desmond Jennings, thank you very much to those accusing me of hijacking his thread....

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ADP-

48 BJ Upton

76 Desmond Jennings

134 Carlos Gomez

All 3 were former top prospects who K a lot. All 3 are likely to hit .250-.260 with a combined 50-60 HRs & SBs. Upton is 28, Gomez is 27, Jennings is 26.

Gomez RBI/run totals will likely be lower if he's hitting 7th, but to me that's not enough to make up for the ridiculous difference in ADP.

I don't buy into "contract year," but Gomez skipped the WBC so he could focus on the season in his walk year.

Great value IMO.

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This guy presents a great power/speed combo for where he is being drafted.

I do think he presents severe batting average risk when you look at the numbers. He struck out 22% of the time walked less then 4.5% of the time and had a lower then league average LD%. If I was drafting I wouldn't expect more then a .240 average without some babip help.

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