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LyondellBasell

Colby Rasmus 2013 Outlook

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23 HR, 75 RBI, 75 Runs, a .223 Avg in 2012

After a bad start to the year, there was a point around the ASB where he was on pace to hit 30 and knock in 100. He had made some magical adjustments to his stance. Was close to the plate. The breakout was in full bloom ... I sold high, didn't pay much more attention to him, and from the looks of it, the wheels fell off.

He hurt his groin in early August. Perhaps that messed with him for ROS. He did a DL stint in late August for a jammed right wrist.

His BABIP has fallen, but he hits a lot of flyballs, so that probably makes him a perennial low avg. guy. I wonder if they'll platoon him since he sucks against lefties.

Anyone still intrigued here? Guy still has a lot of power that can continue to develop. He's just 26! will be 27 in August.

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He's a hacker, he has almost no plate discipline. He was doing well last year when pitchers were throwing balls down the middle because they didn't want to put guys on base in front of Bautista and Encarnacion, and had to worry about Lawrie stealing bases in front of him. When they discovered he swings at everything they'd throw him junk and he'd swing at it 99% of the time. Players have improved their discipline over their careers but it's a harder thing to improve upon for some players. I have seen zero progress from his rookie year to last year in this regard. IMO he'll always been a streak player because of this, he'll do well when pitchers don't worry about him and throw meatballs down the plate and he'll suck when they throw him garbage. Might be worth a late round flier in case he starts out hot.

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I can see him being a mid pick. He has no pressure on him now. No former first round pick expected to be an all-star, no having to worry about anything but hit the ball since he won't be in the first four/five. He can very much hit over 250 this upcoming season.

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In my Al-only league, at mid-season I thought being able to keep him for this season at $8 was going to be a steal. Now, I'd rather not even have him on my team (can probably just draft him for $5 or $6). He had one good month last year and 5 bad ones. Lefties have feasted on this guy the past 2 years..but his "breakout" year in St.Louis he was actually very good against lefties, showing there is SOME possibility. He is still young and the power is still there. He will also be in a fairly loaded offensive line-up, so he will have plenty of opportunities to score runs and drive em' in. However, his stolen base % and amount of steals have been garbage since he's left the minors, which means he will need to finally hit on his power potential while at least hitting .250 to be worth something. He's a fine guy to have a flier on because we've seen two occasions already in recent history where these guys on the Blue Jays who have some potential just EXPLODE. He has the downside of hitting .220 and ending up in a platoon, but the upside is probably a .260, 30 hr, 100 rbi, 100 run season. Enough appeal to take a flier on and this is one of those guys that can win you a league, however don't expect it though.

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Looks like he's having a pretty atrocious showing this spring.

Colby Rasmus went 0-for-4 on Saturday and is 2-for-18 since returning from a sore right shoulder.

Rasmus is 3-for-23 with no extra-base hits overall this spring. One wonders just how patient the Blue Jays will be with Rasmus is he gets off to another slow start this year. With Rajai Davis on the bench and Anthony Gose in Triple-A, they'll have alternatives in center field. Mar 16 - 4:51 PM

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Until this guy shows me any kind of eye at the plate, I will stay away. Pitchers figured him out last year, which was basically throw pitches out of the zone and watch him hack. Great potential, but I won't bite until he starts drawing some walks.

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Drew Stubbs 2.0

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Any hope for a return from the dead? Just destroyed his second homer of the season

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Any hope for a return from the dead? Just destroyed his second homer of the season

Too inconsistent for my taste. Was super high on this guy back in the day, but never a good sign when the Cardinals give up on you (an organization with a good track record in development)

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with young players you have to patient, sometimes it takes a while for it to click, and that click can come out of nowhere. he's always had a world of talent.

i expected a slow start after the injury shortened spring training but 2 HR's this week is promising. absolutely killed that ball, 3rd deck in straight away CF.

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I know he homered today, but he better not slump this year or I have a feeling they'll move on.

Anthony Gose is just about ready to roll, and that kid's got tools in spades. Off to a 5-8 start with a double and 5 runs scored in his first 2 games for AAA Buffalo. And since he's no longer in Las Vegas, we don't have to take all his offensive stats with a huge grain of salt.

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You guys might want to hop on him before it's too late. Sure, he won't hit for average but the power is certainly real. Here are the stats on the 4 HRs he's hit so far in 2013:

440ft

377ft

468ft (Longest hit in Majors in 2013) [Video]

411ft

His HRs are travelling an average of 424ft, and avg speed of 107.9 mph.

He is only owned in 22% of Yahoo! leagues, and comes with very low risk. If you have an injury hole, open bench spot, or a marginal player with limited upside, I'd give Rasmus a look. If he can manage a BA between .240-.260, we could be looking at a player cabable of Jay Bruce-esque #s, which we all know is pretty good.

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He's striking out in 40.4% of his plate appearances this year. Puke. He could easily hit .200 this year.

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He's striking out in 40.4% of his plate appearances this year. Puke. He could easily hit .200 this year.

Possible he hits that low. Also possible he K's closer to his career K-rate of 23.4% (Not good, but better than 40% obviously.)

I think that he should be owned in more leagues than he is. It's reasonable to expect a repeat of last years run production (75/23/75), with the possibility that he hits for a moderately higher average (.240-.260 like i said before), and a few more HR's, making him totally usable in most formats.

Again, it wouldn't hurt to add him and see what happens.

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He's striking out in 40.4% of his plate appearances this year. Puke. He could easily hit .200 this year.

Possible he hits that low. Also possible he K's closer to his career K-rate of 23.4% (Not good, but better than 40% obviously.)

I think that he should be owned in more leagues than he is. It's reasonable to expect a repeat of last years run production (75/23/75), with the possibility that he hits for a moderately higher average (.240-.260 like i said before), and a few more HR's, making him totally usable in most formats.

It probably won't stay over 40%, but his swinging strike rate is way up and his pitch recognition is way down, so there is not reason to expect his strikeout rate to improve over last year's, and that means his batting average is more likely to be lower than last year's than higher. His offensive numbers are being buoyed by a .368 BABIP and him hitting home runs on 33.3% of his fly balls. Those will regress. That is a fact. You can say he might hit for a higher average, and I suppose it could happen, but all the evidence points to the opposite.

Again, it wouldn't hurt to add him and see what happens.

Why do people always say this? I suppose if you play in leagues with unlimited bench spots, maybe. But then he'd already be owned anyways.

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It probably won't stay over 40%, but his swinging strike rate is way up and his pitch recognition is way down, so there is not reason to expect his strikeout rate to improve over last year's, and that means his batting average is more likely to be lower than last year's than higher. His offensive numbers are being buoyed by a .368 BABIP and him hitting home runs on 33.3% of his fly balls. Those will regress. That is a fact. You can say he might hit for a higher average, and I suppose it could happen, but all the evidence points to the opposite.

Well hey... if you are completely positive that he will hit .200 and will stink, that's fine.

Why do people always say this? I suppose if you play in leagues with unlimited bench spots, maybe. But then he'd already be owned anyways.

Is your goal to find out why people say this statement, or to disagree that he isn't worth adding?

It is clear that you hate Rasmus and aren't considering him, which is fine. To be honest, I wasn't much of a believer of his in the past. However, when you look at his totals from last year (75 runs/23hrs/75rbi), consider that his %s were down from his career numbers across the board, and factor in how hard he's been hitting the ball this year, it warrants attention in deeper leagues. It isn't like you are going to have to trade for him or sacrifice anything major in any league, and the potential is there. No?

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Well hey... if you are completely positive that he will hit .200 and will stink, that's fine.

I'm not positive. I'm using the evidence at hand to come up with an educated prediction.

Is your goal to find out why people say this statement, or to disagree that he isn't worth adding?

It is clear that you hate Rasmus and aren't considering him, which is fine. To be honest, I wasn't much of a believer of his in the past. However, when you look at his totals from last year (75 runs/23hrs/75rbi), consider that his %s were down from his career numbers across the board, and factor in how hard he's been hitting the ball this year, it warrants attention in deeper leagues. It isn't like you are going to have to trade for him or sacrifice anything major in any league, and the potential is there. No?

I don't hate Rasmus. I'm not optimistic he'll be very good though. And sure, if you're dealing with a deep AL only league where the guy you're dropping for him is Jayson Nix, then have at it. But blanket statements like "it can't hurt to pick him up" are ridiculous, because in the majority of leagues it can hurt. There are always other players out there with potential, and a lot of them have better indicators of success so far than Rasmus.

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The scenarios that

Well hey... if you are completely positive that he will hit .200 and will stink, that's fine.

I'm not positive. I'm using the evidence at hand to come up with an educated prediction.

Is your goal to find out why people say this statement, or to disagree that he isn't worth adding?

It is clear that you hate Rasmus and aren't considering him, which is fine. To be honest, I wasn't much of a believer of his in the past. However, when you look at his totals from last year (75 runs/23hrs/75rbi), consider that his %s were down from his career numbers across the board, and factor in how hard he's been hitting the ball this year, it warrants attention in deeper leagues. It isn't like you are going to have to trade for him or sacrifice anything major in any league, and the potential is there. No?

I don't hate Rasmus. I'm not optimistic he'll be very good though. And sure, if you're dealing with a deep AL only league where the guy you're dropping for him is Jayson Nix, then have at it. But blanket statements like "it can't hurt to pick him up" are ridiculous, because in the majority of leagues it can hurt. There are always other players out there with potential, and a lot of them have better indicators of success so far than Rasmus.

My first post on Rasmus said: "If you have an injury hole, open bench spot, or a marginal player with limited upside, I'd give Rasmus a look."

Can you really disagree with this? Even if he doesn't improve, do you think that a full replication of last years stats is only worthy of deep AL only leagues? By the way, the Jayson Nix example is quite extreme.

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hes been kinda hot lately... should pick him up

I was gonna drop him yesterday, but he's stringing a few games together. I am not optimistic, but if you have a heavy rightly week matchup with him, he might be worth a shot if you're dealing with injuries. I shoulda put him in this week for Morse, but have no faith in Colby. I should just drop him with that view. I'll give him another week.

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Does anyone else see value in buying low on Rasmus right now in deeper leagues?

- Jays have shown some signs of life over the last week. Rasmus still getting pencilled in in the 6th and 7th spot in the order.

- Rajai Davis is on the DL now, meaning Bautista/Melky/Rasmus should play almost every inning of every game until he's back

- His K rate can't get much worse than it is right now, can it?

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Does anyone else see value in buying low on Rasmus right now in deeper leagues?

- Jays have shown some signs of life over the last week. Rasmus still getting pencilled in in the 6th and 7th spot in the order.

- Rajai Davis is on the DL now, meaning Bautista/Melky/Rasmus should play almost every inning of every game until he's back

- His K rate can't get much worse than it is right now, can it?

His AVG is going to be pretty bad, maybe .230 but he could potentially hit 25 HR, which gives him some deep league value. Maybe 60-70 R/RBI? His OBP is going to be pretty bad.

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You look at his B-Ref page and you see so much potential -- and then epic failure. I think in deeper leagues anyone who has an everyday job has some value. But Rasmus right now is a sub 700 OPS player. He's just brutal. And he provides no speed or anything to hang your hat on.

Where is he hitting in the lineup these days?

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