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ludawg23

Wild Card Weekend Discussion

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Some very solid matchups this weekend...

Bengals/Texans:

Texans: Seem to be reeling right now. Giving up big plays in the secondary but they do play at home.

Bengals: Defense playing at a very high level. Can Dalton play well on the road?

Prediction: Bengals 24-21

Vikings/Packers:

Vikings: AP should get his but can Ponder play well enough away from the dome?

Packers: Rodgers should have a full arsenal at his disposal this week..

Prediction: Packers roll 38-17, the Vikings had to play a perfect game last week and had a lot go their way. I just don't see them beating the Packers 2 weeks in a row...especially at Lambeau.

Colts/Ravens

Colts - Luck playing well but also away from the dome. Pagano-strong? Still a lot of holes in that defense

Ravens: Surprisingly, Flacco has started 9 playoff games and has won 5 of them. The return of Ray Lewis?

Prediction: Ravens 28-17

Seahawks/Redskins

Hawks - Is there a hotter team in the NFL? Playing well on both sides of the ball but also playing away from home

Redskins - Another team on a roll leaning on RGIII and Morris

Prediction - Seahawks 21-17

Battle of the rookies and I think this is a low scoring affair. Both teams in the bottom half in offensive snaps so I think it'll be a grind. But RGIII doesn't look 100% which may be the deciding factor against a ferocious defense.

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Houston - 28 - 24

Packers - 31 - 20

Ravens - 28 - 17

Seahawks - 35 - 17

Maybe I'm a homer but that Redskin D stinks. I think the Hawks eat them alive.

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Houston - 28 - 24

Packers - 31 - 20

Ravens - 28 - 17

Seahawks - 35 - 17

Maybe I'm a homer but that Redskin D stinks. I think the Hawks eat them alive.

Their secondary is awful but they are excellent at stopping the run. The Seahawks are a power running team and they grind it out which plays into the Redskins' strength. I think they would roll at home but away from SEA, anything goes and the home team should be fired up for this game. Can't wait...

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Houston - 28 - 24

Packers - 31 - 20

Ravens - 28 - 17

Seahawks - 35 - 17

Maybe I'm a homer but that Redskin D stinks. I think the Hawks eat them alive.

I don't know man, I think Luck gives Baltimore a serious run for their money. I'd love to see Luck pullout a playoff win in his rookie year, would be great to see IMO. And yeah I don't see how Wash pulls it out AT SEA...Luck and Wilson look like the better bets in terms or rookie QB's advancing.

I agree about Houston and Green Bay

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Seattle is going to the SB. Their defense is just ridiculous and Wilson/Lynch are playing like men possessed.

"It's a passing league bro no way."

It's funny how people forget a couple different bounces last year and the SB would've been SF/BAL. Defense/running the football still matter ... and Seattle does both as well as anyone. And they have a very good QB that can make plays on his own.

AFC it's pretty much DEN/NE i don't see any other team winning that conference.

and GB/SEA/HOU/BAL win this week ... although i would love to see an Indy/Denver matchup at some point.

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Houston - 28 - 24

Packers - 31 - 20

Ravens - 28 - 17

Seahawks - 35 - 17

Maybe I'm a homer but that Redskin D stinks. I think the Hawks eat them alive.

I don't know man, I think Luck gives Baltimore a serious run for their money. I'd love to see Luck pullout a playoff win in his rookie year, would be great to see IMO. And yeah I don't see how Wash pulls it out AT SEA...Luck and Wilson look like the better bets in terms or rookie QB's advancing.

I agree about Houston and Green Bay

Game is @ WAS

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seattle is a wildcard ... the game is in washington ... this is the only thing keeping me from betting a ton of money on the seahawks.

i'm confident the hawks will win, but traveling east for bob's first playoff game/first redskins division title since color TV was invented should have that place going nuts ... too many what ifs for me to put a lot of money on the hawks.

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That's my mistake, it is at WASH as division winners despite a worse record. I still think Seattle takes it to 'em. Seattle will make it to the divisional round

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During the regular season, teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast usually don't fare well. However, this is the Playoffs and Seattle should be well prepared, with that said, I can see them win in Washington, but the following week they play Atlanta on Saturday (assumes GB wins).

Do the Seahawks stay on the East Coast or do they fly back to turn around and fly East?

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it'd be smart to stay out on the east coast ... but idk how that works. probably fly back and forth.

i honestly think they matchup perfectly with ATL ... their secondary can shutdown that passing game, turner will do nothing on that front 7 ... and they don't have a chance of stopping Lynch [controlling the clock, keeping ATL's offense on the sidelines...]

this is why i like seattle to go on a postseason run, assuming they get past washington first. they really do matchup perfectly with ATL when you look at the individual match ups.

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Sat

I love the Bengals catching 4 1/2 pts in last year's rematch.

You want to talk about two teams going in opposite directions - I wouldn't be suprised to see a double digit win

GB wins, but I can't see it being a route. 9 1/2 is high

Sun

Think Baltimore is a nice value and I can see Luck struggling in the cold.

Seattle/Wash is the ultimate coin flip game. I see tons of running and love the under

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The last time Seattle was a 3 point favorite, for an away game, was Week 13 at Miami. They ended up losing 24-21.

Sunday's spread at Washington? SEA-3.0.

edit: I'll take the Skins, 27-24.

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could bet $1,000 on SEA straight up. pays out ~1500 if seattle wins outright ... i wanna bet more ... [anyone use sportsbook? legit?]

RG3 limited, Sherman erases Garcon, SEA's front 7 holds Morris in check, Wilson gets that putrid secondary and Lynch should keep the defense more than honest ...

i really wanna put 10G on SEA ... someone talk me out of it ... winning 5G on sunday would be nice ... losing 10G on sunday would really ... really ... really ruin my weekend.

i can buy an extra 3 points to make the line pick 'em ... i'm pretty much certain SEA is gonna win, but i don't love that they are road favorites [it could very easily be a 3 point game ... which would screw a lot of people].

obviously the payouts are much higher if i bet at -3... but pick 'em seems like a lock to me. Any reason to think Washington has an edge in this matchup? [aside from home field?]

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Not really going to give any explanations, because they are really just gut feelings. So here are my somewhat bold/somewhat predicted picks:

Houston 27-20

Green Bay 34-17

Indy 24-17

Seattle 31-21

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could bet $1,000 on SEA straight up. pays out ~1500 if seattle wins outright ... i wanna bet more ... [anyone use sportsbook? legit?]

RG3 limited, Sherman erases Garcon, SEA's front 7 holds Morris in check, Wilson gets that putrid secondary and Lynch should keep the defense more than honest ...

i really wanna put 10G on SEA ... someone talk me out of it ... winning 5G on sunday would be nice ... losing 10G on sunday would really ... really ... really ruin my weekend.

i can buy an extra 3 points to make the line pick 'em ... i'm pretty much certain SEA is gonna win, but i don't love that they are road favorites [it could very easily be a 3 point game ... which would screw a lot of people].

obviously the payouts are much higher if i bet at -3... but pick 'em seems like a lock to me. Any reason to think Washington has an edge in this matchup? [aside from home field?]

Sportsbook is pretty legit, but all betting sites are offshore, so you might have to notify your bank or they might not let a payment go through. Also, it is much easier if you have Visa. I really don't see Washington having an edge outside of home field. Seattle is used to cold/outdoor conditions playing in a city that rarely sees sunlight. They play outdoors, but the sound at that place is like being in a dome, it is LOUD. So crowd noise shouldn't really bother them too much. NFC West is reppin' strong in the postseason.

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Bengals @ Texans: Texans win 24-21. Bengals are much improved from last year but Houston D will force enough mistakes from mediocre Dalton to win the game. Bengals D will keep it close.

Vikings @ Packers: Packers win 34-31 in OT. The Vikes have impressed against the Packers and will dominate that weak offensive line, putting Rodgers on the ground a few times. The Pack will focus on nothing else but stopping AP and will allow Ponder to beat them, which should allow him to have an above average game but will also result in a point scoring turnovers. Both teams match-up well against each other and it will be a very close contest.

Colts @ Ravens: Ravens win 24-13. The Ravens will play their hearts out for Ray Lewis and try to give him a perfect send-off. Indy's fairytale season will come to an end, a game too big for a talented but inexperienced team. Luck will throw three picks, Ravens D comes out with a vintage performance. Easy win for the Ravens.

Seahawks @ Redskins: Seahawks win 21-20 in OT. Too close to call, its not even close to the blowout that some might be predicting. That said, the Seahawks have a full strength team and are peaking at the right time. The Skins are far from full strength but a super accurate RG3 and a physical WR like Garcon will still find a way to move the ball on the Hawks and put the points on the board. Low-scoring struggle that will be decided by a few key moments. Consider the CONDITIONS: the FedEX field is a nasty, scuffed up grass.

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Texans/Bengals

Texans win 21-16.

Ravens/Colts

Ravens win 27-17.

Seahawks/Redskins

Seahawks win 24-20.

Packers/Vikings

Packers win 31-20.

No reason for the scores for me. Just what my mind is telling me.

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Houston: 31 - 24

Packers: 34 - 24

Ravens: 27 - 17

Redskins: 35 - 24

Yes I'm a Vikes fan but I'm a realist, this is a tall order for them, it all depends on what version of Ponder shows up.

Many of you are way higher on SEA than I think is warranted.

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i honestly can't think of a way washington wins [especially with bob limited]

i'm not touching any of the other games because i can see the other match ups going either way ... but i just don't see it with washington. sherman is playing like revis-lite and garcon is the only WR worth fearing. they should have no problem stacking the box and at least keeping morris in check...

and on the flip side, wilson is red hot and going against a mediocre at best secondary with lynch to keep the clock running ... i can see luck lighting up baltimore, i can see AP running wild and upsetting the packers, i can see the bengals winning [that game is really a toss up i don't see a "favorite" in that matchup].

it's just every matchup in the washington-seattle game that i focus on gives the edge to seattle ... wilson/lynch > skins d; seattle secondary > skins pass game ... i don't see morris running wild on that front 7

if RG3 was 100% i wouldn't be as confident, because that gimmicky run game is near impossible to stop when you need to account for his 4.3 speed ... but he's not so i think seattle should at least "contain" rg3/morris.

i like the under because i expect a ton of lynch/morris running the clock ... but wilson should be able to exploit washington's defense and i think seattle matches up perfectly with a banged up rg3 and morris/garcon.

i'm having a really hard time coming up with any way the skins have an advantage to exploit in this matchup.

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I like the Packers the best this week if you're a betting man...

Ponder played the game of his life last week with a monumental effort from the entire team. There were multiple instances where the Vikings were fortunate and they barely squeaked out a W.

Now Ponder must play outdoors in the cold where has been pretty bad. 6 INTs vs 4 TDs passing with barely a 56% completion rating. Now he's battling some minor injuries as well...

Rodgers will have a full arsenal to work with (Cobb, Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Finley) against a banged up secondary that will have no answers. Winfield, if he plays, will have to play through a broken hand.

AP will get his but can the Vikings pass rush get enough pressure to stop Rodgers? Getting Cobb back should help him get rid of the ball quickly.

In the end, I just don't see Ponder being able to keep up with the Pack. He'll have to play another perfect game to have any remote chance to win. Even if he does, beating GB twice in a row will be tough...especially in Lambeau.

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Your reasoning is sound ray but I think predicting a 2+ td win over WAS at home like some are is a tad overblown.

RG3 said that he felt limited because of the brace, not that he was still feeling symptoms from his injury. Is there any word if he'll be wearing it again this week? I can see the 'Skins getting a small lead and grinding the piss out of them into that s---y field with Alf, throw in a possible crazy Ivan pick or 2 from Hall and you have a good recipe for a "W."

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I like the Packers the best this week if you're a betting man...

Ponder played the game of his life last week with a monumental effort from the entire team. There were multiple instances where the Vikings were fortunate and they barely squeaked out a W.

Now Ponder must play outdoors in the cold where has been pretty bad. 6 INTs vs 4 TDs passing with barely a 56% completion rating. Now he's battling some minor injuries as well...

Rodgers will have a full arsenal to work with (Cobb, Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Finley) against a banged up secondary that will have no answers. Winfield, if he plays, will have to play through a broken hand.

AP will get his but can the Vikings pass rush get enough pressure to stop Rodgers? Getting Cobb back should help him get rid of the ball quickly.

In the end, I just don't see Ponder being able to keep up with the Pack. He'll have to play another perfect game to have any remote chance to win. Even if he does, beating GB twice in a row will be tough...especially in Lambeau.

i agree with this 100% and if i was forced to bet the game, i'd take the packers. they should win/cover.

however, it's a pretty big line ... and i wouldn't be shocked if AP runs for 200 and 3 TDs in an upset/close game. unlikely, but no one would be surprised if this happened would they?

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