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cymbaline

Ike Davis 2013 Outlook

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I'll preface by saying I've never been a fan of Ike Davis. He doesn't hit LHP, plays in the wrong park, strikes out a lot, etc.

Good:

After looking at split stats this guy launched 20 bombs post-ASB to salvage an otherwise lost season. Only Miggy, Headley, Beltre and Upton out-homered Ike during this period. I guess by the time he really turned it on he was so far off my fantasy radar that I did not really take notice. Davis is also a lot more interesting in OBP leagues. He does take walks. Lastly, apparently the Mets still consider him a key element in their lineup. He hit under .200 for a sizable portion of the year and the organization still kept Ike in the meat of the order almost every day.

Bad:

It seems like he's an obvious platoon player given his .217/.281/.361 career split against LHP. He was quite a bit worse than this in 2012, triple slashing a horrid .174/.225/.335. He's also a lot better on the road. OPS split here is more than 100 points. He's built a reputation for taking an absurd number of called third strikes (whopping 52% of his K's were backward in 2011)

Despite all the negatives, I feel like this guy makes a good value pick. He'd be in the low tier of 1B and probably be really cheap on draft day. Platoon him on handedness with a WW 1B and it's possible to get a decent 5x5 line on a high pick/high dollar position.

Thoughts?

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I think he'll be a lot closer to his post All-Star stats than his over all stats in 2012.

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For the reasons you mentioned, it's difficult to envision a .275+ bat, but the power is real and a .260 average can be 'absorbed' on a good fantasy roster.

He's got a solid BB rate, as well, which adds value in non-traditional leagues.

If you miss out on the few top tier IB this season, there are solid options in the middle rounds, for sure.

My Ike Davis '13 projection:

.265

30 hr

95 rbi

70 runs

.350 OBP

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he's gonna get some hype and won't be the super value some are hoping for. the industry will focus on the second half, and ike usally destroys spring training pitching.

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he's gonna get some hype and won't be the super value some are hoping for. the industry will focus on the second half, and ike usally destroys spring training pitching.

I agree here, most people will probably focus on the second half home run totals and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting drafted ahead of where he was drafted last year because of vally fever. The craziest stat like cymbaline mentioned is how much he strikes out looking. This is something that has to be correctable right?

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what's his auction value in standard mixed leagues? i was thinking around 7, maybe a bit higher in keepers. he's going to be 26 when the season begins.

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what's his auction value in standard mixed leagues? i was thinking around 7, maybe a bit higher in keepers. he's going to be 26 when the season begins.

Because first base is so deep i think 7-10 would be his auction price. Which could make him a steal in drafts especially after a disappointing last year.

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Ike always destroys ST pitching and he has started off mashing again.

He does strike out to much (23% for his career) but he also walks a ton (11% for his career) and had a excellent line drive rate (21%) last year. He also had a babip of .246 which is mind boggling given his line drive %.

I think he has a decent chance of being a .270 hitter (with some upside potential) with 35+ bombs and 100+ rbi who is going at and ADP of 119.

SIGN ME UP!

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Ike always destroys ST pitching and he has started off mashing again.

He does strike out to much (23% for his career) but he also walks a ton (11% for his career) and had a excellent line drive rate (21%) last year. He also had a babip of .246 which is mind boggling given his line drive %.

I think he has a decent chance of being a .270 hitter (with some upside potential) with 35+ bombs and 100+ rbi who is going at and ADP of 119.

SIGN ME UP!

.270 is definitely possible, and .280 wouldn't shock me. he hit .300 in 36 games in 2011, and did it for the majority of his time in the minors. with an obvious increase in babip, and if he can get his contract rate up a bit he could hit for a very good average. he's just turning 26 this year

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His swing has too many holes in it, I'll pass

The guy dealt with strength zapping Valley Fever last year and hit 32 bombs. He won't hit less than .265 and I can live with that considering he will flirt with 40 homers. Dont pass on this guy when he's finally healthy.

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I'm totally on this bandwagon. He's still not on so many folks radar, rostered him in a 12 team 6x6 last night with OBP as the extra cat, a 10th round pick I'm most happy to have!!

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He went for $13 in my auction on Sunday (it's also a partial keeper league). Guys in my league are usually all over sleepers so I wasn't expecting him to be had at much vaule, but he isn't a bad option at $13. I would think in most non-keeper leagues you could get him for $10 or less.

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how can anyone say he is a platoon player? he had his best season yet after having valley fever and not doing anything for 3 months. it's hard to imagine him not outplaying his draft position.

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how can anyone say he is a platoon player? he had his best season yet after having valley fever and not doing anything for 3 months. it's hard to imagine him not outplaying his draft position.

See first post. .174 BA v LHP in 2012. .217 v LHP career. I have no qualms about calling those kinds of splits a platoon gambit.

Just because the Mets play him against southpaws does not mean fantasy owners should.

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how can anyone say he is a platoon player? he had his best season yet after having valley fever and not doing anything for 3 months. it's hard to imagine him not outplaying his draft position.

See first post. .174 BA v LHP in 2012. .217 v LHP career. I have no qualms about calling those kinds of splits a platoon gambit.

Just because the Mets play him against southpaws does not mean fantasy owners should.

yea i understand your reasoning. i guess just the term platoon player in a fantasy sense is accurate. I always saw Choo as a platoon player in fantasy but obviously in real life hes an everyday guy.

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how can anyone say he is a platoon player? he had his best season yet after having valley fever and not doing anything for 3 months. it's hard to imagine him not outplaying his draft position.

See first post. .174 BA v LHP in 2012. .217 v LHP career. I have no qualms about calling those kinds of splits a platoon gambit.

Just because the Mets play him against southpaws does not mean fantasy owners should.

yea i understand your reasoning. i guess just the term platoon player in a fantasy sense is accurate. I always saw Choo as a platoon player in fantasy but obviously in real life hes an everyday guy.

Yes, you are correct that my terminology isn't really spot on. Perhaps "splitter" is a more appropriate term.

Anyhow, I still think there's a lot of potential to pair Ike with other 1B's to get a solid 5x5 line.

Honestly, I was disappointed that Yahoo ranked Davis in the top 100 as I was really hoping for a better bargain.

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I am cautiously optomistic that he won't be completely useless against lefties this year.

If you look deeper at the stats he has only had ~330 ab's against lefties in the big leagues and he was able to hit .295 against lefties in 2010 in 122 ab's. So it has really been over the last two years in which he has been injured and gone through Valley fever that he has really really struggled against lefties.

Obviously I don't think he will be anywhere near .295 that mark this year against lefties but I am just hoping he won't be absolutely terrible.

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I just drafted Ike for $7, and I was pretty happy with that price. Do you guys think 75/35/90/.260 is a reasonable projection?

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I just drafted Ike for $7, and I was pretty happy with that price. Do you guys think 75/35/90/.260 is a reasonable projection?

Seems reasonable to me.

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I just drafted Ike for $7, and I was pretty happy with that price. Do you guys think 75/35/90/.260 is a reasonable projection?

$7 is a steal for someone that may flirt with 40 homers. This guy hit 32 feeling like crap most of the season, imagine what he can do healthy!

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Below 1B were drafted when I picked Ike 120th overall in my OBP league:

Pujols

Votto

Fielder

Agon

Goldy

Edwin

Butler

Freeman

Craig

Trumbo

Rizzo

Howard

Konerko

I think Ike's value increases with OBP as he can take a walk here and there. I was happy.

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top 5 1st baseman.

Those are pretty high hopes. I have him ranked at 9th best 1B. Really I'm considering moving Hosmer ahead of him just based off of ceiling potential.

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