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KansasTrooper

Matt Moore 2013 Outlook

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I've just traded for this guy and am very excited to see what he brings to the table in 2013. He was brilliant in the 2011 playoffs and was pretty good in 2012 with some growing pains.

What are your guys thoughts on him?

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I think this guy will be solid, and potentially a top 10 pitcher next season. He's got the potential, the AL East ain't what it used to be, and he's got a full season under his belt.

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Wasn't he tipping pitches last year by tapping his glove before he threw the curve? If he gets rid of his tell that could mean a huge stride forward this year towards his immense potential.

I wonder how hard it is to rid himself of the tipping. I would think the answer would be to tap on every pitch instead of trying to stop tapping on the curve which I think wouldn't be that hard.

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H2h 10 team points league,6 keepers where guys are kept based on rounds they were draft. Traded for Mccutchon him in the last round(he was considered a minors keeper last year) and some earlier picks .This kid is 24 in June and mirrored David Price's numbers from his rookie year. I like the upside 200 Ks and 15 Wins is not out of the question.

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he has some serious control problems and he is a flyball pitcher so he was subpar in 2 of the main 3 skills last year. if you look month-by-month, his control really didn't improve. he can turn it around, good park, as noted the AL East isn't what it was, usually a great defense, and the K potential is tempting. so there's a lot of good. I'd probably take him again where I took him last year (100-120 range) but not any higher.

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Wasn't he tipping pitches last year by tapping his glove before he threw the curve? If he gets rid of his tell that could mean a huge stride forward this year towards his immense potential.

I wonder how hard it is to rid himself of the tipping. I would think the answer would be to tap on every pitch instead of trying to stop tapping on the curve which I think wouldn't be that hard.

pretty sure he does tap every pitch

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If he gets his control issues in check, he's a Top 10 pitcher next year. Getting his control issues is check is not a guarantee or a lock though.

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Wasn't he tipping pitches last year by tapping his glove before he threw the curve? If he gets rid of his tell that could mean a huge stride forward this year towards his immense potential.

I wonder how hard it is to rid himself of the tipping. I would think the answer would be to tap on every pitch instead of trying to stop tapping on the curve which I think wouldn't be that hard.

pretty sure he does tap every pitch

I remember hearing he was tipping pitches last year too.This guy does have very nice upside and looks to be a good value.

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Moore vs. Darvish??? Two guys with similar control problems last year that both showed flashes of brilliance. Who has a better year in 2013?

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Moore vs. Darvish??? Two guys with similar control problems last year that both showed flashes of brilliance. Who has a better year in 2013?

That's a toss-up in my book. If I was going for wins then probably Darvish. Moore also still worries me with his BB rate. This is one of those scenarios where I'd have to wait till spring training to see how I feel.

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Moore vs. Darvish??? Two guys with similar control problems last year that both showed flashes of brilliance. Who has a better year in 2013?

That's tough... Maybe Darvish because he plays in Oakland and against the Astros and in safeco more, but that Angels lineup got a lot better. AL East is still scary

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http://larrybrownspo...-pitches/153043

If batters know what is coming can you imagine how great Moore would be without the tell? Clearly the upside is better than Darvish.

Also if he clears up his tell he might solve some of his control problems since he is probably trying to do too much since batters know what's coming and he could dial back his stuff and regain some control. In any event his ERA and WHIP will go down. His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1. if the K:BB ratio is over 4:1 it doesn't really matter how many guys you walk, since you are unhittable and you'll be striking out on average 4 or more batters for every walk thereby ending the innings (in the majority of cases) so the walks won't hurt him.

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His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1.

This is kind of crazy analysis. His K:BB will go from subpar to either great or essentially legendary??

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His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1.

This is kind of crazy analysis. His K:BB will go from subpar to either great or essentially legendary??

I also find it pretty funny that people think the smartest organization in baseball let one of their SPs pitch a significant portion of the year tipping pitches and this year he will suddenly walk half as many batters because he's tapping his glove before every pitch instead of only his curveball.

blows my mind.

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he will suddenly walk half as many batters because he's tapping his glove before every pitch instead of only his curveball.

blows my mind.

More astonishing is the poster said he'll be so unhittable it won't matter how many batters he walks. So i think his K-rate will instead double (!!). A k/9 of 20.00 or so would be an amazing fantasy asset indeed!

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A 3:1 or 4:1 K:BB isn't legendary. Most aces sit around 3.5:1. In 2011 Cliff Lee had a 5.7:1

Once you get your ratio over 3:1 it doesn't matter so much how many you walk. For every one guy you walk you strike out 3 or more on average. Three K's take you out of the inning.

Yes if a batter knows what is coming he will be able to lay off pitches better so Moore's walk rate will rise. A pitch that starts out of the zone that is a fastball will stay out of the zone and the hitter knows that. If the hitter is guessing he gets fooled way more and has less time to make decisions on whether to swing or not. Therefore if Moore doesn't tip his pitches his K/9 rate will go up and his BB/9 rate will go down as hitters will start having to guess and not cheat which will cause very bad swings in and especially out of the zone since Moore's stuff is elite.

I think Moore has the ability to have a K/9 rate of over 11. He had a K/9 rate of almost 9 last year tipping pitches. It was very obvious from the article he was tipping. So many times the hitter knew what was coming and he still was able to punch out a ton of batters.

The article also stated that Moore has had that tipping problem on and off for quite a while now (I am assuming it meant in the minors) and he has put up incredible K/9 rates.

So really him having a high BB/9 isn't going to hurt him when he can strike out so many batters. It will hurt him mostly in not being able to get deeper into games but not so much in ERA and WHIP. Getting rid of the tell is way more important than getting his walk rate down 1 per game and as I said I think the walk rate will come down even if his control doesn't improve when hitters are forced to guess at what he is throwing and start swinging at garbage out of the zone when he loses the tell.

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His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1.

This is kind of crazy analysis. His K:BB will go from subpar to either great or essentially legendary??

I also find it pretty funny that people think the smartest organization in baseball let one of their SPs pitch a significant portion of the year tipping pitches and this year he will suddenly walk half as many batters because he's tapping his glove before every pitch instead of only his curveball.

blows my mind.

Well if you read the article and looked at the video it was very obvious he was tipping his pitches.

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A 3:1 or 4:1 K:BB isn't legendary. Most aces sit around 3.5:1. In 2011 Cliff Lee had a 5.7:1

Once you get your ratio over 3:1 it doesn't matter so much how many you walk. For every one guy you walk you strike out 3 or more on average. Three K's take you out of the inning.

Yes if a batter knows what is coming he will be able to lay off pitches better so Moore's walk rate will rise. A pitch that starts out of the zone that is a fastball will stay out of the zone and the hitter knows that. If the hitter is guessing he gets fooled way more and has less time to make decisions on whether to swing or not. Therefore if Moore doesn't tip his pitches his K/9 rate will go up and his BB/9 rate will go down as hitters will start having to guess and not cheat which will cause very bad swings in and especially out of the zone since Moore's stuff is elite.

I think Moore has the ability to have a K/9 rate of over 11. He had a K/9 rate of almost 9 last year tipping pitches. It was very obvious from the article he was tipping. So many times the hitter knew what was coming and he still was able to punch out a ton of batters.

The article also stated that Moore has had that tipping problem on and off for quite a while now (I am assuming it meant in the minors) and he has put up incredible K/9 rates.

So really him having a high BB/9 isn't going to hurt him when he can strike out so many batters. It will hurt him mostly in not being able to get deeper into games but not so much in ERA and WHIP. Getting rid of the tell is way more important than getting his walk rate down 1 per game and as I said I think the walk rate will come down even if his control doesn't improve when hitters are forced to guess at what he is throwing and start swinging at garbage out of the zone when he loses the tell.

You're right and you're wrong.

K/BB is a pretty useless stat.

You're right that Ks matter because a guy with a 20% K% and 10 BB % is better than someone with a 10% K% and 5% BB% if all else is equal.

You're wrong that BB% doesn't matter. If he does K 11 per 9 like you say, then he doesn't need to shave it. I agree. If he fails to do that and his walk rate stays above 4, I don't think he's going to have much value. Maybe that is obvious.

I don't buy that tipping pitches had a significant effect on his season. That just doesn't pass the smell test for me. You'd have to assume several other teams noticed (or shared) before the Rays did.

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K:BB is a more important stat than BB/9 for a power pitcher with swing and miss stuff. Usually if you have a bad BB/9 you will have a bad K:BB but if you have a 3:1 K/BB with a K/9 ability of over 10 that pitcher will have very good ERA and WHIP numbers regardless of the BB/9.

If the pitcher doesn't have great stuff the K:BB becomes less meaningful towards predicting success.

However I am not a proponent of analyzing anything in isolation. Yes all things being equal it is a great thing to get the BB/9 down.

Matt Moore doesn't get many swings out of the zone for the type of stuff he has in his arsenal. Matt Moore generates a lot of misses in the zone and especially out of the zone. I don't analyze things the conventional way you obviously do but when you bring more things into the specific context of Matt Moore (i.e. he is tipping pitches, he has huge swing and miss stuff and he doesn't get enough swings out of the zone) it would be far better for his success to stop tipping his pitches so that he gets more strikes in and out of the zone and more swings out of the zone in general than to have more control of the zone.

It's not just about the Rays knowing Matt Moore has the tipping problem. They still have to work with Matt Moore to stop the problem from happening. It's a subconscious ingrained habit that just can't be switched off after identifying the problem. According to one article I read it has been an ongoing problem. I think stopping the tipping problem is way more of a factor towards improving Matt Moore's success than shaving down his BB/9 and I base that opinion on the type of pitcher Matt Moore is and not just employing the "conventional" wisdom of how walking a batter is bad taken in isolation of the situation and player.

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K:BB is a more important stat than BB/9 for a power pitcher with swing and miss stuff. Usually if you have a bad BB/9 you will have a bad K:BB but if you have a 3:1 K/BB with a K/9 ability of over 10 that pitcher will have very good ERA and WHIP numbers regardless of the BB/9.

If the pitcher doesn't have great stuff the K:BB becomes less meaningful towards predicting success.

the reason K/BB is a nearly worthless stat is because the two numbers carry differing value. a K is more good than a BB is bad. you understand this because you're saying things that are true, but you're sticking to K/BB.

trick question: who's better, a pitcher with a 2.25 K/BB or a pitcher with a 2.00 K/BB, assuming all else is equal?

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Matt Moore doesn't get many swings out of the zone for the type of stuff he has in his arsenal. Matt Moore generates a lot of misses in the zone and especially out of the zone. I don't analyze things the conventional way you obviously do but when you bring more things into the specific context of Matt Moore (i.e. he is tipping pitches, he has huge swing and miss stuff and he doesn't get enough swings out of the zone) it would be far better for his success to stop tipping his pitches so that he gets more strikes in and out of the zone and more swings out of the zone in general than to have more control of the zone.

O-Contact% - 59.7% (average: 66.8%)

Z-Contact% - 81.2% (average: 87.2%)

so he is actually further ahead of the curve when it comes to out of zone contact.

I know there is a site that has swinging strike splits but I forget it now. forgot all my useful links in the off-season.

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Reminds me a lot of how David Price started his Rays career. Blew everyone away with a late season cameo. Didn't meet expectations the following year. Then..BOOM. Ace status. I foresee the same path for Moore. He lowered his bb/9 to 3.59 in the 2nd half. If he gets that closer to, or below 3.50 for the season then he will be a strong fantasy #2 starter and real life #2 starter.

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Matt Moore doesn't get many swings out of the zone for the type of stuff he has in his arsenal. Matt Moore generates a lot of misses in the zone and especially out of the zone. I don't analyze things the conventional way you obviously do but when you bring more things into the specific context of Matt Moore (i.e. he is tipping pitches, he has huge swing and miss stuff and he doesn't get enough swings out of the zone) it would be far better for his success to stop tipping his pitches so that he gets more strikes in and out of the zone and more swings out of the zone in general than to have more control of the zone.

O-Contact% - 59.7% (average: 66.8%)

Z-Contact% - 81.2% (average: 87.2%)

so he is actually further ahead of the curve when it comes to out of zone contact.

I know there is a site that has swinging strike splits but I forget it now. forgot all my useful links in the off-season.

My point was regarding O-Swing% not O-contact%. I said Moore generates a lot of swing and misses inside and especially outside the zone. Given that fact he does not get enough people chasing out of the zone (O-swing%) given hitters should be cheating since his stuff is so good and that is because hitters know what is coming on account of his tipping problem.

If hitters don`t know what is coming with Moore they would start swinging at more stuff out of the zone and given the fact he gets them to miss more on average the results of that would be better for him than the average pitcher.

Hitters swinging at more stuff out of the zone would turn balls into strikes or outs. Hence I said he doesn`t need to pitch more in the zone to better his BB/9 and K:BB ratios and become a significantly better pitcher closer to his potential. I`m repeating myself now, but the biggest obstacle by far for Moore is to stop tipping and I think when he stops doing that you`ll find everything else will fall into place for him. What Moore did last year, especially in terms of K:BB, was extremely impressive given how bad his tell was to others.

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