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ballfan4141

Austin Jackson 2013 Outlook

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he finished with a good average. the same this year. any improvements. did he really stink the second half of the season?

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He also finished with 100 runs scored. I like guys like AJ, just solid across the board contributors if he could get the bags up into the 20 range, would be fantastic. Ive got him in the 30's of my OF rankings.

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He also finished with 100 runs scored. I like guys like AJ, just solid across the board contributors if he could get the bags up into the 20 range, would be fantastic. Ive got him in the 30's of my OF rankings.

And he could still keep developing that power too this year. He could be 100 RS and 15 homers 20 steals this year.

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he is so underrated. even with only 12 steals last year, on a per-game basis (min. 100 games played) he was the #20 hitter last year.

he showed skills growth in terms of lowered K%, greater BB%, and increased power. all indicators appear positive: lower swinging strike rate, lower O-swing% among others.

he had Brennan Boesch hitting behind him for a good portion of the year. the Tigers should be a better offense just by virtue of removing all the dead weight they had and replacing them with V-Mart, Torii, and Infante.

prorate his 2012 stats to the 152 games he averaged his first two years:

.300, 18 HR, 13 SB, 114 R, 73 RBI

and I think those SB should rebound. he had a good success rate his 1st two years. it tanked last year but I think there is reason to expect that to rebound.

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he is so underrated. even with only 12 steals last year, on a per-game basis (min. 100 games played) he was the #20 hitter last year.

he showed skills growth in terms of lowered K%, greater BB%, and increased power. all indicators appear positive: lower swinging strike rate, lower O-swing% among others.

he had Brennan Boesch hitting behind him for a good portion of the year. the Tigers should be a better offense just by virtue of removing all the dead weight they had and replacing them with V-Mart, Torii, and Infante.

prorate his 2012 stats to the 152 games he averaged his first two years:

.300, 18 HR, 13 SB, 114 R, 73 RBI

and I think those SB should rebound. he had a good success rate his 1st two years. it tanked last year but I think there is reason to expect that to rebound.

When he went on the DL in the middle of the year wasn't it for a hamstring or hip injury? Maybe that was hampering him a little affecting his running ability. He should be fully healthy now and I like think he takes a big step forward this year.

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he is so underrated. even with only 12 steals last year, on a per-game basis (min. 100 games played) he was the #20 hitter last year.

he showed skills growth in terms of lowered K%, greater BB%, and increased power. all indicators appear positive: lower swinging strike rate, lower O-swing% among others.

he had Brennan Boesch hitting behind him for a good portion of the year. the Tigers should be a better offense just by virtue of removing all the dead weight they had and replacing them with V-Mart, Torii, and Infante.

prorate his 2012 stats to the 152 games he averaged his first two years:

.300, 18 HR, 13 SB, 114 R, 73 RBI

and I think those SB should rebound. he had a good success rate his 1st two years. it tanked last year but I think there is reason to expect that to rebound.

Agreed, he is my next step, bust out guy in the OF this year. I really like the trends I saw last year with him. His walk rate skyrocketed and his K rate plummeted. 2 signs of a guy that is finding his way at the dish. Only going to be 26 on opening day he has a lot of tools to work with. If he went for 110 runs, 20 HR's, 70 RBI's, 20 SB's and had an OBP of .370+ then he will be a top 10 outfield selection next year. I love that lineup for the Tigers as well, Jackson - Hunter - Cabrera - Fielder - Vmart - Avila - Peralta - Dirks - Infante. Just really solid hitters all throughout. That 8-9 is 2 very professional, tough out hitters so Ajax could have more opps with RISP than the average leadoff man.

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Id temper the SB expectations. His instincts are terrible, gets really bad jumps a lot. Hes got the speed, hopefully he can learn how to use it

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He improved so greatly from 2011 to 2012. A jump from .249 to .300 in average is ridiculous, if he keeps that average in the .285 to .300 range he will score 100 runs. I like him to steal 20 bases, in 2010 and 2011 he had 27 and 22 SB's respectively. His power has improved as well and I think he has a good shot at 20/20 with a .285 to .305 average. That might be a bit high, but I think he is almost a lock for 15/15.

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Love Austin Jackson this year, the surge last year was most definitely not a fluke. .371 BABIP was right in line with his career .370 average. The increase in production was a result of improved plate discipline, something that has been in the works all 3 years of his pro career despite what looked like a poor year last year. A look at a few plate discipline numbers:

O-Swing% (% of pitches swung at outside the strike zone)

10 - 28.6%

11 - 27.5%

12 - 24.0%

Swing% (total % of pitches swung at)

10 - 47.0%

11 - 44.5%

12 - 42.4%

Contact% (total % of contact made when swinging at all pitches)

10 - 84.3%

11 - 84.7%

12 - 87.2%

So he has been becoming a more selective hitter, while also getting better at making contact, with last year being the biggest jump. A great trend for a young player like Jackson. This improved discpline has resulted in:

BB%

10 - 7.0%

11 - 8.4%

12 - 10.9%

K% (This has been the biggest issue for Jackson so far and it was also the biggest improvement he made last season)

10 - 25.2%

11 - 27.1%

12 - 21.7%

And with improved discpline comes improved power:

ISO (Isolated power, more telling than SLG)

10 - .107

11 - .125

12 - .179

Jackson has been doing exactly what you hope every young player with his type of talent that struggles early on does. Very mature for someone his age. He should hit at least .290 with a ceiling in the .315-.320 range (his career average is .280, he hit .300 last year and is only getting better). That type of average hitting in front of Cabrera and Fielder is a lock for 100+ runs.

My projection: .307 AVG, 109 R, 68 RBI, 20 HR, 18 SB

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Love Austin Jackson this year, the surge last year was most definitely not a fluke. .371 BABIP was right in line with his career .370 average. The increase in production was a result of improved plate discipline, something that has been in the works all 3 years of his pro career despite what looked like a poor year last year. A look at a few plate discipline numbers:

O-Swing% (% of pitches swung at outside the strike zone)

10 - 28.6%

11 - 27.5%

12 - 24.0%

Swing% (total % of pitches swung at)

10 - 47.0%

11 - 44.5%

12 - 42.4%

Contact% (total % of contact made when swinging at all pitches)

10 - 84.3%

11 - 84.7%

12 - 87.2%

So he has been becoming a more selective hitter, while also getting better at making contact, with last year being the biggest jump. A great trend for a young player like Jackson. This improved discpline has resulted in:

BB%

10 - 7.0%

11 - 8.4%

12 - 10.9%

K% (This has been the biggest issue for Jackson so far and it was also the biggest improvement he made last season)

10 - 25.2%

11 - 27.1%

12 - 21.7%

And with improved discpline comes improved power:

ISO (Isolated power, more telling than SLG)

10 - .107

11 - .125

12 - .179

Jackson has been doing exactly what you hope every young player with his type of talent that struggles early on does. Very mature for someone his age. He should hit at least .290 with a ceiling in the .315-.320 range (his career average is .280, he hit .300 last year and is only getting better). That type of average hitting in front of Cabrera and Fielder is a lock for 100+ runs.

My projection: .307 AVG, 109 R, 68 RBI, 20 HR, 18 SB

I think this is a great projection, and the great thing about Jackson is that he does have upside wjth those runs and rbis because of the lineup he plays in. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 125 runs and 80 rbis due to the good 8th and 9th hitters in det like a previous poster mentioned

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Now that we're all in agreement, let's lock/delete this thread

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Now that we're all in agreement, let's lock/delete this thread

Good idea, soon we will get the homers who think he will hit 35 35 and also the doubters who will argue that his babip will correct itself and he will hit 250 and strike out 250 times

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Are any of you predicting a sizable jump in homers or a big rebound in stolen bases?

For an OF his counting stats and upside seem a little low to get too excited about.

Unquestionably he is an improving hitter entering his prime but I am not sure how well that will translate into fantasy production.

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Are any of you predicting a sizable jump in homers or a big rebound in stolen bases?

For an OF his counting stats and upside seem a little low to get too excited about.

Unquestionably he is an improving hitter entering his prime but I am not sure how well that will translate into fantasy production.

This is an error in human perception, more specifically an inability to gauge 1 value out of 5 numbers. The player rater I use loved him last season.

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This is an error in human perception, more specifically an inability to gauge 1 value out of 5 numbers. The player rater I use loved him last season.

Really, how so?

My thoughts are that the market will have him valued at an ADP that shows some improvement over his 2012 stats.

You tend to think his market value will be undervalued. What basis do you have for that assumption? I doubt very many people don't think he can't or even won't improve marginally over his 2012 stats and certainly most people think his 2012 line is at least very repeatable. So you will have to pay for an improvement in where you draft Austin in order to land him.

Therefore his only value to your team will be if he increases his 2013 more than just a little over his 2012 line otherwise you will just be getting what you paid for.

You are incorrectly assuming I don't know how to assign relative worth to Austin based on increasing his fantasy stats in 2013 somewhat marginally and the market doesn't either. I've given you no basis to think that since I haven't attempted to assign him a relative value.

I just asked if he has a real chance to improve significantly from a fantasy standpoint over what he did in 2012 especially from the perspective of homers and sb and what basis is there for thinking that way.

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This is an error in human perception, more specifically an inability to gauge 1 value out of 5 numbers. The player rater I use loved him last season.

Really, how so?

My thoughts are that the market will have him valued at an ADP that shows some improvement over his 2012 stats.

You tend to think his market value will be undervalued. What basis do you have for that assumption? I doubt very many people don't think he can't or even won't improve marginally over his 2012 stats and certainly most people think his 2012 line is at least very repeatable. So you will have to pay for an improvement in where you draft Austin in order to land him.

Therefore his only value to your team will be if he increases his 2013 more than just a little over his 2012 line otherwise you will just be getting what you paid for.

You are incorrectly assuming I don't know how to assign relative worth to Austin based on increasing his fantasy stats in 2013 somewhat marginally and the market doesn't either. I've given you no basis to think that since I haven't attempted to assign him a relative value.

I just asked if he has a real chance to improve significantly from a fantasy standpoint over what he did in 2012 especially from the perspective of homers and sb and what basis is there for thinking that way.

re-read my post that you quoted.

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Most people, including myself, in this thread believe that AJ will improve over his 2012 numbers.

Therefore you will have to pay a premium on AJ and his 2012 numbers to land him in 2013 for your fantasy team.

If that is the case, for him to give your fantasy team value, he has to improve more than what the average person who is looking to target AJ will expect of him.

What reason is there to believe there will be a marked jump in AJ's numbers and not only just the improvement most expect and are willing to pay for from AJ?

How is he going to improve significantly and where and why do you believe that will be the case?

If you believe you are going to get AJ at a discount and not a premium on his 2012 numbers and that is how your team will get value from him I think you are mistaken.

PS - What exactly is my error in human perception ( I assume it is mine since you quoted me)? Spell it out for me if it is not relatively assigning value to AJ.

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PS - What exactly is my error in human perception ( I assume it is mine since you quoted me)? Spell it out for me if it is not relatively assigning value to AJ.

I mean looking at these 5 numbers and accurately gauging the total value. it's very tough to do. I definitely can't do it with any sort of precision. we look at Jackson's 2012 line and think it's nothing special, but it is. across-the-board contributors are undervalued because nothing pops out. conversely if a guy hits 30 HR with 90 RBI, 75 R, no steals, and a .260 AVG you might think he's good because he's got power but that's a really mediocre line. it's not just you personally.

so what I'm saying is that Austin Jackson rated out really well last year and he only played 137 games. his final season rank was higher than his ADP is. if you treat it per-game then he was the #20 hitter.

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You have to also analyze players based on how drafting certain players at specific positions force you to target other types of players at other positions.

If you draft an OF that has mediocre power and declining SBs with worsening success rates what does that mean for the rest of your team? In the OF you really have to look for the 20/20 guys with good power/speed upside. At 1st base you want the 300 average and 30+ homer power. Not drafting 1st base power means you have to overcompensate in the OF position for power where the sacrifice in SB's you have to give up for increasing power later on in the draft is too costly.

I don't really think in the context of drafting a team and finding synergy and balance with players a reasonable argument can be made that an OF with mediocre power and who only stole 12 bases while getting caught 9 times is a top 20 fantasy player and great value given where you will have to draft him and his OF/CF position.

I'm more curious though as to what can be reasonably expected of AJ in terms of improvements in hrs/sb's. You stated he will rebound in sb's. Sure that is probably a safe bet but by how much? His stolen bases have gone down while being caught more over the last 3 years. Given his speed he has to rebound but it is not reason for optimism for a huge rebound. You have a point about games played but I still don't see an above average OF in either power or sb's. He is below average in terms of SB;s for the CF position which is where you usually draft speed and where it comes relatively cheap compared to other positions.

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yes but when you get cheap speed from a CF is there any power there.... 100 runs? jon jay like? just asking not saying you are wrong.

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You have to also analyze players based on how drafting certain players at specific positions force you to target other types of players at other positions.

If you draft an OF that has mediocre power and declining SBs with worsening success rates what does that mean for the rest of your team? In the OF you really have to look for the 20/20 guys with good power/speed upside. At 1st base you want the 300 average and 30+ homer power. Not drafting 1st base power means you have to overcompensate in the OF position for power where the sacrifice in SB's you have to give up for increasing power later on in the draft is too costly.

I don't really think in the context of drafting a team and finding synergy and balance with players a reasonable argument can be made that an OF with mediocre power and who only stole 12 bases while getting caught 9 times is a top 20 fantasy player and great value given where you will have to draft him and his OF/CF position.

I'm more curious though as to what can be reasonably expected of AJ in terms of improvements in hrs/sb's. You stated he will rebound in sb's. Sure that is probably a safe bet but by how much? His stolen bases have gone down while being caught more over the last 3 years. Given his speed he has to rebound but it is not reason for optimism for a huge rebound. You have a point about games played but I still don't see an above average OF in either power or sb's. He is below average in terms of SB;s for the CF position which is where you usually draft speed and where it comes relatively cheap compared to other positions.

you make it sound like we are all in a league together so that all of our opinions of Jackson are raising his price to the value that we think he will produce (the improved value since most believe he is an improved player). But the fact is that we are not in the same league as each other. The people we play with may value Jackson like jsp said - they undervalue him because he does not stand out in any one category. Thus, we can get him for a price that is less than what we think he will produce, which means we will profit.

In terms of synergy and drafting Jackson and how that affects your draft strategy, I think it mainly depends on where you draft Jackson. If we are in the same league and someone drafts him early, then I guess your argument is sound in that you have to consider how his stats mix with the rest of your roster and how you will build around him. But since we are most likely not in the same league and can probably take him later, the core players for a strategy will already be in place when Jackson is drafted. At this point, Jackson is an excellent contributing piece because he provides good power and average for a CF and a great source of runs. Add in a hopeful bounce back in steals and you've got a very good player at a low price.

I don't understand the bolded statement in your quote. He HAS to rebound because of his speed? I think he should rebound because of his speed, but others have said he has horrible instincts. Not sure what to make of it.

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http://www.fftoolbox.com/baseball/average-draft-position.cfm?pos=OF

I see AJ is ranked 24 and Desmond Jenning is ranked 26 for OF. I haven't been paying attention to ADP so I am not sure how accurate those values are.

I would much rather have DJ's upside over AJ's. You have to get 40 SB upside somewhere and you might as well get it with a Desmond Jennings in the OF who has a chance to hit 20 homers as well. To me that is more important to building a team than to have AJ contributing across the board better and therefore thinking he is more valuable. You still probably need a 30-40 SB guy in the OF so you have to factor that in when analyzing the opportunity cost of taking an AJ over a DJ.

Player raters just analyze players in isolation but you need some guys that will hit 30+ homers with a 300 average or steal 40 bases and have more than 15 homers in terms of building a competitive team. You pay a premium (that is worth it) for those guys early on and discount the other guys that aren't truly exceptional in either homers or stolen bases even if they put up good numbers across the board. Otherwise the guys you have to pick up eventually that will get you an abundance of stolen bases or cheap power will be extremely one dimensional relative to their position and hurt your team badly in multiple categories.

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http://www.fftoolbox...tion.cfm?pos=OF

I see AJ is ranked 24 and Desmond Jenning is ranked 26 for OF. I haven't been paying attention to ADP so I am not sure how accurate those values are.

I would much rather have DJ's upside over AJ's. You have to get 40 SB upside somewhere and you might as well get it with a Desmond Jennings in the OF who has a chance to hit 20 homers as well. To me that is more important to building a team than to have AJ contributing across the board better and therefore thinking he is more valuable. You still probably need a 30-40 SB guy in the OF so you have to factor that in when analyzing the opportunity cost of taking an AJ over a DJ.

Player raters just analyze players in isolation but you need some guys that will hit 30+ homers with a 300 average or steal 40 bases and have more than 15 homers in terms of building a competitive team. You pay a premium (that is worth it) for those guys early on and discount the other guys that aren't truly exceptional in either homers or stolen bases even if they put up good numbers across the board. Otherwise the guys you have to pick up eventually that will get you an abundance of stolen bases or cheap power will be extremely one dimensional relative to their position and hurt your team badly in multiple categories.

Right now Jackson's ADP is 90 at mock draft central, and Jennings is 92. If you want to go Jennings over Austin because of upside that's fine, but Jackson is a great value because of his play last year. Even if he puts up exactly the same numbers last year, then he still is great value, but most people tend to think his stats will go up because he did miss some games last year, he has stolen more bases in the past, and he still is entering his prime. He does everything, which is great for roto leagues. He doesn't need to excel in any one category to be valuable.

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well I took over a team last year in a keeper league where people already had the top keepers. I came in third with the second to best record with a junk roster. 7 keepers. I would like to get him but dont know if the person who has him will keep him or if I can get him the draft.

overall he was a guy I was and am targeting.

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you make it sound like we are all in a league together so that all of our opinions of Jackson are raising his price to the value that we think he will produce (the improved value since most believe he is an improved player). But the fact is that we are not in the same league as each other. The people we play with may value Jackson like jsp said - they undervalue him because he does not stand out in any one category. Thus, we can get him for a price that is less than what we think he will produce, which means we will profit.

There are obvious enough people that are high on him if his ADP is 90. Personally I would never pay that kind of price for an CF/OF that has fringe 20 homer power and was 12/23 in stolen bases in 2012. Especially when I can draft a Desmond Jennings instead.

In terms of synergy and drafting Jackson and how that affects your draft strategy, I think it mainly depends on where you draft Jackson. If we are in the same league and someone drafts him early, then I guess your argument is sound in that you have to consider how his stats mix with the rest of your roster and how you will build around him. But since we are most likely not in the same league and can probably take him later, the core players for a strategy will already be in place when Jackson is drafted. At this point, Jackson is an excellent contributing piece because he provides good power and average for a CF and a great source of runs. Add in a hopeful bounce back in steals and you've got a very good player at a low price.

Don't you think pick 90 is early when you aren't getting a good power/speed guy in an OF position?

I don't understand the bolded statement in your quote. He HAS to rebound because of his speed? I think he should rebound because of his speed, but others have said he has horrible instincts. Not sure what to make of it.

I phrased it poorly. After 3 years of negative trending and only 12 SB in 23 attempts in 2012, and given his speed, the chances are better he will rebound than continue to decline (at some point he has to rebound or else his skills have to be in continual steep decline). It is hard to have AJ's speed and be in your prime and have 4 years of negative trending. However I don't think the chances are that he'll have a huge rebound for the same reasons.

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