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iAugust

2013 OF Rankings

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Don't have one of these up yet so I figured I'd start one. I know these rankings are just going to get picked apart but oh well that's what I get for being the guinea pig that puts his rankings out there first.

DISCLAIMER: I do not play in a standard 5x5 league, I play in an 18-team all around points league so my scoring is likely different than yours which will change my rankings up a bit. Things like batting average are not as important to me and there isn't as heavy an emphasis on steals.

With that being said, my preliminary top 50 OF for this season:

1. Braun

2. Trout

3. Stanton

4. Kemp

5. McCutchen

6. Bautista

7. Hamilton

8. CarGo

9. Ad. Jones

10. Heyward

11. Holliday

12. Granderson

13. Bruce

14. J. Upton

15. Cespedes

16. Harper

17. Gordon

18. A. Jackson

19. Choo

20. Craig

21. Zobrist

22. Swisher

23. Ellsbury

24. BJ Upton

25. Pence

26. Bourn

27. Willingham

28. Cruz

29. Markakis

30. Jennings

31. Beltran

32. Trumbo

33. Hart

34. Reddick

35. C. Davis

36. Morse

37. Rios

38. Werth

39. Kubel

40. Quentin

41. Melky

42. Soriano

43. Prado

44. Fowler

45. Crawford

46. Victorino

47. Viciedo

48. Joyce

49. De Aza

50. Marte

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1. braun

2. mccutcheon

3. trout

after that who knows.

Andrew ".375 BABIP" McCutchen over Trout?

Lol. Excellent insight, very informative post

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Don't have one of these up yet so I figured I'd start one. I know these rankings are just going to get picked apart but oh well that's what I get for being the guinea pig that puts his rankings out there first.

DISCLAIMER: I do not play in a standard 5x5 league, I play in an 18-team all around points league so my scoring is likely different than yours which will change my rankings up a bit. Things like batting average are not as important to me and there isn't as heavy an emphasis on steals.

With that being said, my preliminary top 50 OF for this season:

1. Braun

2. Trout

3. Stanton

4. Kemp

5. McCutchen

6. Bautista

7. Hamilton

8. CarGo

9. Ad. Jones

10. Heyward

11. Holliday

12. Granderson

13. Bruce

14. J. Upton

15. Cespedes

16. Harper

17. Gordon

18. A. Jackson

19. Choo

20. Craig

21. Zobrist

22. Swisher

23. Ellsbury

24. BJ Upton

25. Pence

26. Bourn

27. Willingham

28. Cruz

29. Markakis

30. Jennings

31. Beltran

32. Trumbo

33. Hart

34. Reddick

35. C. Davis

36. Morse

37. Rios

38. Werth

39. Kubel

40. Quentin

41. Melky

42. Soriano

43. Prado

44. Fowler

45. Crawford

46. Victorino

47. Viciedo

48. Joyce

49. De Aza

50. Marte

Good list but I think Ethier is missing, I think tiers are pretty important when it comes to OF rankings. Key for OF is going to be the depth of ones league, is it a 5 starting OF roto league or more like the one we are doing for the mock draft which doesnt quite go as deep.

The other key is going to be how people in your league use guys with multiple eligibility and how that can deplete OFers.

So in your top 50:

Zobrist, pretty much guarantee this guy will be a SS-2B in most leagues, Prado probably doesnt go in the OF either. Then you have a lot of 1B-OF types this year who could go either way: Hart, Swisher and Chris Davis all have 1B elig too along with some futher down the list like a Cuddyer, Colvin, Moss, Garret Jones.

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Those guys are all OF eligible in my league. And yes, you're right I did leave Ethier off. He should be in the 30 range

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go head and gamble on trout. he slumped the last month. I dont care about BABIP. if that formula was that great everyone would use it. you want to take a chance on stanton knee or kemps hamstring go ahead. but mccutcheon and braun will play mostly every game.

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go head and gamble on trout. he slumped the last month. I dont care about BABIP. if that formula was that great everyone would use it. you want to take a chance on stanton knee or kemps hamstring go ahead. but mccutcheon and braun will play mostly every game.

Trout should definitely be ranked higher than Cutch. This is not really up for debate. Trout's "slump" wasn't even that bad in September; he posted an OPS of .836. Meanwhile, Cutch had two months where his OPS was .723 and .693.

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Those guys are all OF eligible in my league. And yes, you're right I did leave Ethier off. He should be in the 30 range

I know they are all OF eligible, the point is that a lot of times people view the OF as the position of least scarcity, so guys who have multiple eligibility that include the OF often times wont end up in the OF and people have to think about that in their rankings and go a little deeper, especially in say a 5OF roto league. IF its a 12-team mixed roto league with a DH/UTIL, you are talking right off the bat 60 OF, but if 4-5 teams use an OF as their utility, and 4-5 of the guys you have as OF get used at alternative positions where they also have eligibility, then lists need to go pretty deep. It wasnt anything wrong with your list, its just people need to realize guys with multi-position eligibility might be used elsewhere so lists have to be deeper to contend with that scenario.

. I would guess Zobrist will be rostered as an OF in less than 5% of the leagues out there.

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I see 1b and OF as having equal position scarcity.

Or lack thereof.

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I see 1b and OF as having equal position scarcity.

I would agree they are both deep positions, and for a 12-team league there probably isnt much to worry about. But go a little deeper like maybe a 14-15 team league roto that utilizes a CI which lets take my league of 15, my guess is that 10-12 of the CI's are filled by 1B not 3B. So between your 15 1B and now your say 11 CI - you are 26 Deep.

Then you start to think about some of the starting 1B out there in 30 teams of MLB:

Boston - lets assume its Napoli, he will be used as a C by someone.

Oakland - you want platoon guys in a 5x5 Roto?

You going Todd Helton? James Loney? Brandon belt if he isnt playing everytime Lincecum and Zito pitch?

Carlos Pena and his .200 average every year.

So what will happen is that some guys will be slid over to the CI position and will deplete the OF a bit. In most leagues its not an issue, but a little deeper league and certainly 5OF and CI leagues, you better have an extra 10-15 past what you think you need just to be prepared.

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Don't have one of these up yet so I figured I'd start one. I know these rankings are just going to get picked apart but oh well that's what I get for being the guinea pig that puts his rankings out there first.

DISCLAIMER: I do not play in a standard 5x5 league, I play in an 18-team all around points league so my scoring is likely different than yours which will change my rankings up a bit. Things like batting average are not as important to me and there isn't as heavy an emphasis on steals.

With that being said, my preliminary top 50 OF for this season:

1. Braun

2. Trout

3. Stanton

4. Kemp

5. McCutchen

6. Bautista

7. Hamilton

8. CarGo

9. Ad. Jones

10. Heyward

11. Holliday

12. Granderson

13. Bruce

14. J. Upton

15. Cespedes

16. Harper

17. Gordon

18. A. Jackson

19. Choo

20. Craig

21. Zobrist

22. Swisher

23. Ellsbury

24. BJ Upton

25. Pence

26. Bourn

27. Willingham

28. Cruz

29. Markakis

30. Jennings

31. Beltran

32. Trumbo

33. Hart

34. Reddick

35. C. Davis

36. Morse

37. Rios

38. Werth

39. Kubel

40. Quentin

41. Melky

42. Soriano

43. Prado

44. Fowler

45. Crawford

46. Victorino

47. Viciedo

48. Joyce

49. De Aza

50. Marte

Just got into work, like I said nothing wrong with this list, but I just looked at my top 50 (which doesnt include guys like some of the 1B, Zobrist or Prado)

Angel Pagan - was above average in 3 of 5 main categories last season (avg, sb and runs)

Torii Hunter - Not a huge fan and I know he is aging but this is a guy who especially if he hits 2 in Detroit could be a 100 run scorer

Cardinal OF (jay or tavares) whoever emerges as starter leaving Spring I think is Fantasy top 50 worthy

Brett Gardner - injured most of all last year but I like him as a value bag guy this year

Cameron Maybin - I know hometown guy but he still is a 25+ SB guy who has potential to be across the board contributor and potential darkhorse breakout candidate

I was just curious to compare lists and again its probably because I just chose to rank some of the mutli-eligible guys at their Non-OF positions.

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babip? isnt that the object of baseball?

That has nothing to do with his comment, of course the GOAL is to get a high average on balls you put into play -- the problem is McCutchen's level of play last year was way beyond what he's done in the past and that level of BABIP has proven to unrepeatable many, many, many times over by other players. The only player in the league who's been able to sustain that high of a number for 3 straight years is Austin Jackson, and very few even do it for 2 years in a row.

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I go for the big boppers early on and worry about filling weaker positions later on. I got Zobrist and Aramis Ramirez last year on a waiver. I go for top hitting and top pitching and I don't worry about positions.

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I wanna play in your league if Ben Zobrist can be found on the waiver wire

and Aramis Ramirez

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austin jackson three years sustained babip like that? now is that a good thing or bad thing? so you are assuming mccutcheon does not match last years numbers? that is fine for me I dont have him.

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Austin Jackson - .396, .340, .371 last 3 years. But he was never lower than .331 in the minors. People misuse BABIP a lot, it tends to league-wide average about .300, but each player determines their own career baseline that you need to look at.

Here's McCutchen...

2008 (AAA) - .325

2009 - .327

2010 - .311

2011 - .291

2012 - .375

McCutchen is ~.325 BABIP, .375 is not going to happen again. Last year was the year to draft him at value, coming off that unlucky .291 year.

His HR/FB was way out of line too, went from 8.8% in 2009 to 8.7% in 2010 to 12.2% in 2011 -- reasonable enough for a guy growing into some power; HOWEVER, last year he went 19.4% -- only 16 players in baseball had a 20+% HR/FB rate, and most of those guys are big power hitters (Dunn, Hamilton, Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Granderson, Miggy, Braun, Willingham, Ike Davis, Trumbo, Viciedo) -- it's not a range that someone like McCutchen is going to be in every year. He might hit 30 HR's again in his career, but odds are heavily against it happening this year.

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While there is plenty of depth in the top 50 and beyond, I think in recent years we have seen a HUGE decrease in the number of reliable "elite" OF options, and I'm really not sure if it's had more to do with simple fluke or if the basic wear and tear of the position on a nightly basis. For every owner who lucked out with a McCutchen/Trout last year, there are countless more whose season crashed and burned with the disappointing and injury plagued seasons of J-Up, Kemp, Cargo, Bautista, etc.

To me, it seems the real make or break angle when determining your pre-draft rankings is pulling that right OF#1 lottery ticket early on in your snake draft or auction, especially in deeper leagues. Finding the rest of the best, (a.ka. #13 - 50) usually seems to play itself out just fine.

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That happens at every position, every year, not just OF. Over the past 6 years, the average number of 1st round picks who return 1st round value is less than 40%. Just seems like it happens more often at OF, because there are more OF's than any other hitting position.

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Im interested in seeing what Cespedes does this year ... if he can take a jump towards elite status. Dude is a beast who, if you listen to Harold Reynolds gush over him, was arguably the most improved player in baseball from game one to game 162.

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