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Desmond Jennings 2013 Outlook

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I think he could really break out this season. His solid line drive % and speed didn't match up with a .298 babip. His contact rate was down from the minors but was still above the league average, so his average should be able to rise. His babip was often above .325 in the minors. He needs to cut down on his k's a tad, but I think this year his babip goes up and as a result he's able to hit .270+. His runs should rise this year as well, as he had 53 in the 2nd half when Longoria was healthy. The loss of Upton likely means Jennings will run more to help create some havoc. His second half obp of .329 (still not high enough for a lead off hitter, but an improvement for him), his great steal % (doesn't get thrown out much), and high speed score combined lead to a possibility of 50+ steals. He has interesting power, as he could hit 20. I think 15 is a more reasonable expectation. He won't be strong in rbi's since he hits at the top of the line-up, so he may only have about 50 or so.

The problem with this guy is that (A) He hasn't really lived up to the hype yet and (B) he's battled some injuries. If this guy can stay healthy, he could be a top 10 outfielder drafted around the 25th outfielder. His downside (if healthy) is close to last year, .250ave, 15hr, 30sb. But this guy has huge upside. You draft a guy like this because he can be a guy you ride all season. He could hit around .275 with 18 homers, 45 steals, 100+ runs. I think he breaks out this year.

Thoughts?

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i already have him on my list of desired players. i never bought into the hype before (i'm never too high on rookies), but looking at his decent numbers from last year, i think he can improve on them. great balance of speed and power, and has potential to score and drive in many runs for a good hitting team. if he gets his average higher, he'll really be a great guy to own.

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bj upton is someone I associate him with so.....

I think Jennings is in store for a nice turn around this year.

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his numbers are similar to bj upton. and i think that's a good thing. i've always liked upton's power-speed combination.

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From the looks of early spring lineups it looks like he will be batting #2 instead of the leadoff spot. Zobrist and his high OBP looks to be the early favorite of Maddon to leadoff with Joyce batting third.

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From the looks of early spring lineups it looks like he will be batting #2 instead of the leadoff spot. Zobrist and his high OBP looks to be the early favorite of Maddon to leadoff with Joyce batting third.

I wouldn't look TOO much into this just yet. Managers like to tinker, especially early on in the spring.

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I'm not into the Jennings hype. I see a player who in 3 separate stints in the bigs over 874 plate appearances strikes out at a 20%+clip, who has a career BABIP under .300 in the bigs. His K rate has risen each year in Tampa, his walk rate fell from 10.8% in 2011 to 8.2% in 2012, his contact rate of 76% was just average.

He can steal 30 bags running the bases backwards, his speed is unquestioned.

Help convince me he's a buy, I'd like to believe it but right now I'm a hater.

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Coming off an injury riddled season, I think he will rebound. He has a lot of pop for a player who can swipe 50 bags given a full season. If he can stay healthy, he should have a big year.

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I'm not into the Jennings hype. I see a player who in 3 separate stints in the bigs over 874 plate appearances strikes out at a 20%+clip, who has a career BABIP under .300 in the bigs. His K rate has risen each year in Tampa, his walk rate fell from 10.8% in 2011 to 8.2% in 2012, his contact rate of 76% was just average.

He can steal 30 bags running the bases backwards, his speed is unquestioned.

Help convince me he's a buy, I'd like to believe it but right now I'm a hater.

His speed and solid line drive rates don't support his low babip which was routinely .325+ in the minors. He's only 26, not exactly a finished product. There is room to grow and eventually you would think his speed and line drive rate lead to a higher babip, which leads to a higher average, which leads to being on base more, which leads to more steals. I think he's a solid player to own this year.

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Why draft Jennings when you can draft Carlos Gomez at a fraction of the price and get the same (or better) player with less injury risk?

It's weird to see a player like Jennings, who after rising to the top levels of the minors sees his AMAZING plate discipline (1:1 BB/K through AAA) dissolve over the last three years. He could be a true AAAA player.

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Why draft Jennings when you can draft Carlos Gomez at a fraction of the price and get the same (or better) player with less injury risk?

Because Jennings struggling in the majors looks like Gomez succeeding? And you figure one, or both, of those trends will stop?

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Why draft Jennings when you can draft Carlos Gomez at a fraction of the price and get the same (or better) player with less injury risk?

Because Jennings is good at baseball.

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Gomez really?

I understand that he had a good second half but his career OBP is under .300.

I realize that Jennings was only at .314 last year but with the patience he showed in the minor leagues you would have to assume that would go up.

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Gomez really?

I understand that he had a good second half but his career OBP is under .300.

I realize that Jennings was only at .314 last year but with the patience he showed in the minor leagues you would have to assume that would go up.

While it's true that once you display a skill you own it, we haven't seen Jennings display that patience over 3 separate stints in the bigs in 3 seasons, now over 800 plate appearances. The longer he goes without showing it, the more worried I am that he simply never will. I see them as basically the same player for this season, with Gomez playing in the better park with the better lineup.

Certainly at the discount Gomez provides in a draft or auction he would be the better value IMO.

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I think he is a good post-hype breakout guy. I think he gets back in the .260 to .270 avg range and .330+ OBP. If he stays healthy I think he could hit 13-15 homers and steal 35 bags with 90+ runs with his eyes closed. If I drafted him these are the numbers I would expect, but with some luck and improvement he could hit 17-20 homers and steal 40+ bags.

I saw him go 61st overall in the latest ESPN mock...I think thats right around where he should be going.

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In 2011 Jennings sported a .356 obp with an 11% walk rate.

I would say he has demonstrated some plate discipline in the majors. I would expect something closer to that which reflects the skills he showed in the minor leagues.

Gomez has had 1 good half a season in the majors. He sports a K% of 23% and a walk rate under 5.0% coupled with a below average LD%. All of these things equal a HUGE avg and obp risk without a lot of luck in the babip department.

Gomez does come at a large discount to Jennings and if you aren't a believer I can easily see how you could wait and draft Gomez over Jennings.

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Gomez really?

I understand that he had a good second half but his career OBP is under .300.

I realize that Jennings was only at .314 last year but with the patience he showed in the minor leagues you would have to assume that would go up.

While it's true that once you display a skill you own it, we haven't seen Jennings display that patience over 3 separate stints in the bigs in 3 seasons, now over 800 plate appearances. The longer he goes without showing it, the more worried I am that he simply never will. I see them as basically the same player for this season, with Gomez playing in the better park with the better lineup.

Certainly at the discount Gomez provides in a draft or auction he would be the better value IMO.

This was exactly my point. Upside only gets you so much, and the numbers projected for Jennings are what Go Go has already accomplished in a shared role with Morgan last year. Most projections are showing a repeat of counting stats for Go Go, so you could fill a more important role earlier in the draft where you can get Jennings.

People are so enamored with Rays prospects when they have similar failure rates to most other clubs. I'm afraid Jennings might be one of those failures.

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Here we go...calling a kid a failure who has had one full season in the majors (which was injury plagued) and he still had 13hr and 31sb.

And how can you say he has never demonstrated plate discpline when he had an 11% walk rate through 250abs in 2011?

Co Go has a good amount more downside risk and I would argue a significantly lower ceiling given the ba risk.

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Here we go...calling a kid a failure who has had one full season in the majors (which was injury plagued) and he still had 13hr and 31sb.

And how can you say he has never demonstrated plate discpline when he had an 11% walk rate through 250abs in 2011?

Co Go has a good amount more downside risk and I would argue a significantly lower ceiling given the ba risk.

i agree x100

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In 2011 Jennings sported a .356 obp with an 11% walk rate.

I would say he has demonstrated some plate discipline in the majors. I would expect something closer to that which reflects the skills he showed in the minor leagues.

Gomez has had 1 good half a season in the majors. He sports a K% of 23% and a walk rate under 5.0% coupled with a below average LD%. All of these things equal a HUGE avg and obp risk without a lot of luck in the babip department.

Gomez does come at a large discount to Jennings and if you aren't a believer I can easily see how you could wait and draft Gomez over Jennings.

That's true. A bit of a small sample size at just 287 PA in 2011 for Jennings, but that's at least noteworthy. And he does walk about twice as much as Gomez. Gomez is only 10 months older yet has 1300 more PA than Jennings at the MLB level, 2 extra seasons worth of stats. At least if Gomez gets 500 AB I;m drafting him with his floor as a base. I think drafting Jennings in round 6/7 is drafting at his ceiling.
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Gomez really?

I understand that he had a good second half but his career OBP is under .300.

I realize that Jennings was only at .314 last year but with the patience he showed in the minor leagues you would have to assume that would go up.

While it's true that once you display a skill you own it, we haven't seen Jennings display that patience over 3 separate stints in the bigs in 3 seasons, now over 800 plate appearances. The longer he goes without showing it, the more worried I am that he simply never will. I see them as basically the same player for this season, with Gomez playing in the better park with the better lineup.

Certainly at the discount Gomez provides in a draft or auction he would be the better value IMO.

This was exactly my point. Upside only gets you so much, and the numbers projected for Jennings are what Go Go has already accomplished in a shared role with Morgan last year. Most projections are showing a repeat of counting stats for Go Go, so you could fill a more important role earlier in the draft where you can get Jennings.

People are so enamored with Rays prospects when they have similar failure rates to most other clubs. I'm afraid Jennings might be one of those failures.

Right. Good luck with that!

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