Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

GottaGetTheWin

LeSean McCoy 2013 Season Outlook

563 posts in this topic

A concussion, bad offensive line, the 2 week emergence of Bryce Brown and only 2 rushing TDs has a lot of questions about McCoy going into the offseason.

Now Chip Kelly has been hired as the head coach of the Eagles.

How does this effect McCoy's season next year. Is he a Top 5 pick? Is back in that top tier or RBs?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chip Kelly or not, Mccoy never left the top tier.

He was still going to be a 1st rd value in 2013 regardless.

Now maybe he went from picks 1-3 ish to 9-12 but he's still a 1st rd calibur rb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No Question that McCoy is a first round pick but I don't think a lot of people have him with Foster, Rice, AP like they did last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if you look at how many touches Lesean gets compared to what a guy like Marshall Faulk got in his career, its not even close...

Chip Kelly wants to spread the field in order to run the ball... i see nothing but good things for Lesean out of this..

now, the question is who the Eagles go with at QB now...a lot of fans were thrilled that Vick seemed to definitely be heading out of town...but now there has to be some real question about that...

and of course, everyone is anxious to see who the coordinator will be.... this could be anywhere from great to an absolute disaster for the eagles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No Question that McCoy is a first round pick but I don't think a lot of people have him with Foster, Rice, AP like they did last year.

Oh yea of course, hard to put him with those guys after an injury riddled year coupled with the Bryce Brown emergence. I think there are 4 guys who have to go before Mccoy next year (AP/Foster/Rice/Martin) After those 4 , then Mccoy is in the discussion. With the Spillers/T-Rich/Charles/Alf's of the world.

Edit: Forgot Lynch, so 5 guys needed to be taken before Mccoy next yr.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this hire definitely boosts his value, but it will hinge a lot on that offensive line. He HAS to have some guys to block for him. Either way, he is a first rounder (as everyone has stated). But answering the QB question and firming up that line will solve whether he is an early-middle first round or late first round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No Question that McCoy is a first round pick but I don't think a lot of people have him with Foster, Rice, AP like they did last year.

Oh yea of course, hard to put him with those guys after an injury riddled year coupled with the Bryce Brown emergence. I think there are 4 guys who have to go before Mccoy next year (AP/Foster/Rice/Martin) After those 4 , then Mccoy is in the discussion. With the Spillers/T-Rich/Charles/Alf's of the world.

Edit: Forgot Lynch, so 5 guys needed to be taken before Mccoy next yr.

Ap/Foster/Rice-----JC/TRich/McCoy/-----Martin/Spiller

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No Question that McCoy is a first round pick but I don't think a lot of people have him with Foster, Rice, AP like they did last year.

Oh yea of course, hard to put him with those guys after an injury riddled year coupled with the Bryce Brown emergence. I think there are 4 guys who have to go before Mccoy next year (AP/Foster/Rice/Martin) After those 4 , then Mccoy is in the discussion. With the Spillers/T-Rich/Charles/Alf's of the world.

Edit: Forgot Lynch, so 5 guys needed to be taken before Mccoy next yr.

Ap/Foster/Rice-----JC/TRich/McCoy/-----Martin/Spiller

Wow u are wayyyyy to down on Martin. Nearly 2k total yds and 12 td's in his rookie year??? And putting him 7th ranked rb ?

No way u can put T-rich/Mccoy ahead of him...IMO.

I even have a hard time putting Rice ahead of him coming off a medicore season (for him). Martin outproduced him by a decent margin this yr.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol yeah, Martin and Lynch are deeeefinitely 4th and 5th after the big 3, THEN Spiller/JC//T-Rich/McCoy are fighting for spots 6-9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is what I posted in the top 5 discussion:

For me, I could argue he's #3 in a ppr setting. The past two season, receiving back De'Anthony Thomas had 46 and 45 receptions in 14 and 13 games those seasons. Their lead ball carrier had 247 and 278 carries the past two years. 90% of the time they had big leads and were able to run more though, but they ran well over 60% of the time the past two years. They also didn't run with the qb as much as most people would think. I would set McCoy's over/under at 270 carries and 50 catches. I'd probably take the over on both. It is true he will need a better o-line, but in a year where the Eagles were awful, o-line as bad as it could get, and constantly trailing, he was still on a per-game average a top 8 rb's in most ppr leagues. This just strengthens what looks to be a pretty solid round 1 for rb's, one of the better one's over the past few years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is what I posted in the top 5 discussion:

For me, I could argue he's #3 in a ppr setting. The past two season, receiving back De'Anthony Thomas had 46 and 45 receptions in 14 and 13 games those seasons. Their lead ball carrier had 247 and 278 carries the past two years. 90% of the time they had big leads and were able to run more though, but they ran well over 60% of the time the past two years. They also didn't run with the qb as much as most people would think. I would set McCoy's over/under at 270 carries and 50 catches. I'd probably take the over on both. It is true he will need a better o-line, but in a year where the Eagles were awful, o-line as bad as it could get, and constantly trailing, he was still on a per-game average a top 8 rb's in most ppr leagues. This just strengthens what looks to be a pretty solid round 1 for rb's, one of the better one's over the past few years.

Sure in PPR he's more likely to crack the top-5, but he's in in the 6-10 best fantasy backs tier in standard scoring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone buying on the RBBC report on McCoy and Brown? Really sucks for McCoy, I hope this takes him down to a surefire 2nd round pick. How pass-prone are Chip Kelly's offenses? I believe they do run it considerably, so they're might be enough carries to go around for McCoy to still land 20 carries and Brown nab 10?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brown looked pretty unstoppable at times.. Deserves at least 5-10 touches a game.

One fumble could change all of that tho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be 2 types of RBBC out there:

1) 25-30 touches split about 60:40 or 70:30. If a RB is good enough (like McCoy) this type doesn't concern me too much.

2) "Hot hand" RBBC. This type drives me nuts and makes me want to punch someone. If Kelly employs this type I'm concerned for McCoy's value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

McCoy is their best RB so logic says he will get the ball a ton. But the offense will be a very up tempo fast paced game so I gotta think that type offense indicates a need to have 2 RBs who get the ball a lot. I don't think Kelly hurts or helps McCoy's value...I do think it helps Browns value. I am also very interested to see how Djax and Maclin are impacted.....and Vick talking about running for a 1000 yards now. This offense could impact many guys in so many ways but in the end, it has to be effective or no one will be great...so the real question is, will this offense work in NFL? If it does, it will produce many fantasy studs. I have no idea if it will but The Eagles have become a must watch team for me...gonna be fascinating to watch this play out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a risk-averse owner when it comes to high round draft picks, I want to be as sure as possible of what I'm getting. That being said, McCoy is talented and has a great track record but there are a ton of unknowns, which drop him to the #8 RB; 4th Tier on my board:

AP / Foster / Martin, Lynch / Spiller, Rice, Charles, McCoy

1) How will Chip's option offense affect his performance?

2) How will Bryce Brown be used?

3) Will the Philly O-line be better?

4) How much of his past success was due to Reid's system?

5) Does he have any lingering concussion issues?

If Kelly's system works there will be a lot of touches/TDs to go around and both RBs will have value. I don't have much faith in Vick's ability to run this offense efficiently and don't see an absurd amount of TDs as a result. At the same time they won't be anemic on offense given how defenses will tire from the uptempo play style & the possibility they convert a lot of 4th downs as Chip loved to roll the dice at Oregon. Chip always used 2 RB's at Oregon and in his fast paced offense both McCoy & Brown will get significant touches to have fantasy value. Even if Chip decided to go with McCoy as the main RB with Brown flashing his skills last season, he will certainly cut into McCoy's touches just to keep McCoy fresh. Brown seems to be the more physical/power back, so if McCoy faulters at the goal line early in the season don't be surprised to see his role reduced to Matt Fortesque. Jason Peters should be back healthy and make the O-line better. Reid's use of McCoy in the passing/screen game insured he would get his yardage totals even if the run game wasn't working, hopefully Chip took note of that. I don't think McCoy will have lingering concussion issues (i.e. Austin Collie & Jahvid Best), but DR's research says a player is more likely to sustain a concussion after the first one. So McCoy's injury risk isn't great but it is higher than it use to be.

Bottom Line: McCoy's value goes down as he will get fewer touches and he won't get anywhere near his reeedonkulous TD total of 2011, dropping him from his #3 RB preseason ranking from last year. Brown now becomes a solid mid round pick/flex option, as he will be more than a handcuff. McCoy's still talented enough to deserve late 1st round consideration, just not with my pick.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a risk-averse owner when it comes to high round draft picks, I want to be as sure as possible of what I'm getting. That being said, McCoy is talented and has a great track record but there are a ton of unknowns, which drop him to the #8 RB; 4th Tier on my board:

AP / Foster / Martin, Lynch / Spiller, Rice, Charles, McCoy

1) How will Chip's option offense affect his performance?

2) How will Bryce Brown be used?

3) Will the Philly O-line be better?

4) How much of his past success was due to Reid's system?

5) Does he have any lingering concussion issues?

If Kelly's system works there will be a lot of touches/TDs to go around and both RBs will have value. I don't have much faith in Vick's ability to run this offense efficiently and don't see an absurd amount of TDs as a result. At the same time they won't be anemic on offense given how defenses will tire from the uptempo play style & the possibility they convert a lot of 4th downs as Chip loved to roll the dice at Oregon. Chip always used 2 RB's at Oregon and in his fast paced offense both McCoy & Brown will get significant touches to have fantasy value. Even if Chip decided to go with McCoy as the main RB with Brown flashing his skills last season, he will certainly cut into McCoy's touches just to keep McCoy fresh. Brown seems to be the more physical/power back, so if McCoy faulters at the goal line early in the season don't be surprised to see his role reduced to Matt Fortesque. Jason Peters should be back healthy and make the O-line better. Reid's use of McCoy in the passing/screen game insured he would get his yardage totals even if the run game wasn't working, hopefully Chip took note of that. I don't think McCoy will have lingering concussion issues (i.e. Austin Collie & Jahvid Best), but DR's research says a player is more likely to sustain a concussion after the first one. So McCoy's injury risk isn't great but it is higher than it use to be.

Bottom Line: McCoy's value goes down as he will get fewer touches and he won't get anywhere near his reeedonkulous TD total of 2011, dropping him from his #3 RB preseason ranking from last year. Brown now becomes a solid mid round pick/flex option, as he will be more than a handcuff. McCoy's still talented enough to deserve late 1st round consideration, just not with my pick.

Good post. McCoy's talent is undeniable, he's elusive and can break off a big one any play he has the ball and it puts him in the convo of the back half of the the first round. All the unknowns you mentioned make me gun shy to nab him that early however until I take a gander at this offense in the preseason and see what they do about the o-line, and Peters etc.

At the end of the day I'm not that worried about BB, something tells me Kelly will make sure McCoy gets at least his well deserved 16-20 touches a game, with BB more in the 8-10 range. I'd be a lot more worried if it was like a situation you bring up the way Bush really held back Forte's value in a way by robbing him of 80% (if not more) of his TD-upside.

However, I don't see McCoy's TD-upside being in such danger. Forte's only glaring issue as an RB is punching it in on goalline looks, and while this isn't necessarily a strength of McCoy's he's shown he can do it. And Bush is as proven as it gets when it comes to being a physical backup RB that can get 1-3 yards any given play-- which hurt Forte's value. but on the other hand in PHI, BB is so unproven, I don't see BB stealing valuable goalline TD looks because of ball-security issues, and the fact that McCoy has proven adequate in that role. I'm not sure BB necessarily has the significantly better build or running style to take over that role for that TD-upside goalline role anyways.

Lastly, a resounding agreement on Vick, the fact that it's looking like they are going to role with him makes me cringe when thinking of McCoy. I was a McCoy owner last year and Vick did not do any favors for McCoy and his fantasy value. Vick proceeded to ignore McCoys valuable dump passes in space and tried to save the day with long TD passes. And what's worse, to Rieds credit, Vick was idiotically used at times to try and punch it in on goalline looks himself! As a McCoy owner I'm pulling my hair out, why not hand it off a top-3 talent at the RB position?

While Vick staying at the helm makes me want to rather see if McCoy slips to the second round before pouncing on him, Kelly does offer a new system so it's not a guarantee all the things Vick did last year to hurt McCoy's value will happen this year. A lot of variables in PHI, going to be interesting, can't wait to see some preseason action before cementing my thoughts on each eagle and their respective fantasy value, hard to gauge right now. As of right now, McCoy with my first pick is far from ideal because of the unknowns, however, I'm not sure I could ever pass him up if he ever happened to make it to my earlier 2nd round pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People easily forget that Brown crapped the bed the last 4 games of the season for like a 1.7 YPC and fumbled a bunch.

This guy can't hold McCoy's jock.

Not to mention their HUGE contract disparity, McCoy will get 70-80% of the touches and will go to 90% when Brown resumes his fumblitis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brown did struggle after his hot start....but he was a rookie who was forced into a starters role. It's not like McCoy was tearing it up either. To even try to predict who will get touches in this offense probably would come from biased and wishful thinking because reality is....this situation is a total unknown. No NFL track record from Kelly to even guess how he will handle distribute carries. I would assume an 80-20 ratio in McCoy's favor but a 50/50 ratio wouldn't shock me in the least either.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People (also) easily forget that Brown hasn't played much football since highschool and was thrown into a starting role in the NFL, where he proceeded to run for 300+ yards and 4 TDs in his first 2 starts and finished the year with a 5 ypc average

He's pretty good

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think coaches will trend away from RBBCs next season:

1. Most RBs need to get into a flow of the game to be effective, meaning they need to be fed, despite the increased injury risk.

2. I don't have a fat list of stats in front of me but limiting carries doesn't seem to reduce injury risk anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@cbe_88 - BB is definitely not on Michael Bush's goal line level. Seems like BB was more willing to try to "truck stick" defenders over than McCoy, BB believes in his ability to power through defenders (faith in your abilities goes a long way in being successful in anything). I don't think McCoy has a problem at the goal line at all, like Forte, but it is a possibility if McCoy just happens to make a few bad cut/reads, patience will run thin even if it undeserved and we all know how polite & understanding most philly fans are.

I have no problem taking McCoy in the 2nd round assuming no one better has slipped.

People easily forget that Brown crapped the bed the last 4 games of the season for like a 1.7 YPC and fumbled a bunch.

This guy can't hold McCoy's jock.

Not to mention their HUGE contract disparity, McCoy will get 70-80% of the touches and will go to 90% when Brown resumes his fumblitis.

You're correct Brown had a poor YPC over the last 4 games. Let's take a closer look though:

Season Stats Rushing Receiving Fumbles Week Date Opp Score Att Yds Y/A Lng TD Rec Tgt Yds Y/R Lng TD Fum FumL 14 Dec 9 @ TAM W 23-21 12 6 0.5 11 0 2 4 6 3.0 4 0 0 0 15 Dec 13 CIN L 13-34 16 34 2.1 8 0 1 2 11 11.0 11 0 0 0 16 Dec 23 WAS L 20-27 4 18 4.5 9 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 17 Dec 30 @ NYG L 7-42 8 18 2.3 13 0 1 1 6 6.0 6 0 0 0

During this span the Eagles faced teams in the playoff hunt with tough run defenses: Tampa Bay #1, Cincinnati #12, Washington #5, NYG# 25. You could argue BB should've ran over the Giants D. I'd argue that it was the last game of the season and Philly players were just ready for some vacay, while the Giants had to win to have a chance at playoffs. Week 17 stats are not the best indicator of player performance, based on so many teams already being in or out of the playoffs (that's also why the majority of fantasy leagues end in week 16).

Teams had no idea how good or bad BB when he got his first 2 starts. After seeing BB had some skills teams started to put more defenders in the box, as their inexperienced rookie QB, Nick Foles, was not scaring anyone.

BB had 3 fumbles in his first 2 games as starter and 1 in week 8. Notice he did not fumble the ball once in the last 4 games, someone probably listened to his coaches and held on to the ball a little tighter after he was aware it was a problem. Obviously we know the man is capable of fumbling, but based on when the fumbles occurred he might have fixed that.

I don't know what BB's sexual preference is, so perhaps he doesn't want to hold McCoy's Jock or maybe shady's baby mama refused to let him do so. All jokes aside, it's worth mentioning McCoy's best rush total was 123 and his best YPC = 6.3 both w/ Vick at QB (both of those were bested by BB). I do believe McCoy is the better back, but if BB is such a scrub how did he manage to top McCoy's best games last season? For what it's worth, BB won high school player of the year in 2008 and was the #1 rated HS player in the country that year.

These are just my insights. I;m not an NFL GM and I'll be the first to admit I'm definitely wrong some times but it's a bit foolish to completely discount BB as a threat to take away touches from McCoy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.