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AnonymousRob

Salvador Perez 2013 Outlook

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He was a popular pick going into last season, until he tore his meniscus. When he finally came back for the last 76 games of the year, he hit 301 with 11 home runs in 289 at bats.

In strikeout leagues, he's an asset as he doesn't go down swining often (8.9%). In obp leagues, he doesn't walk (5% would be a good year), so you're relying on him to make a lot of contact. Which he does. He hit 301 last year and I see nothing flukish about the average.

Bill James has him down for 16 home runs with a 299 average. But only 65 runs/75 rbi's. His current ADP is 11th catcher off the board.

He's not on my must draft list but he's certainly a guy I'm keeping an eye on as good value potential. Thoughts from others?

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My catcher of choice in every draft this year.

But one thing concerns me: the hype! I fear he wont slip as low as I'd hoped after last season. Still, hard to envision him being selected within the first 110-120 picks in a 12 team mixed league.

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I loved this guy going into last year too. Had him on my team ready for a breakout pre knee injury then lucked into Carlos Ruiz.

I love him this year too. Has unquestionable bat to ball skills and has a big frame which makes me think that the power he flashed last year is legit and could (COULD) even improve. I think I remember posting a video in last year's thread of him crushing a HR to the opposite field from 2011.... that said he has a very limited track record in the power department and was largely projected as more of a LD hitter.

I'm also not happy about the hype... In that same 12 team 7 keeper league, the guy who picked him up (after I had dropped him due to injury) intends to keep him, which to me is a bit crazy...I think some people might be projecting a bit too much upside based on his MLB numbers too date (which have been very impressive).

I think Bill James Projections are pretty fair, with limited upside in R's given low walk rate.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, January 17, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

debating and keeping him or lucroy.

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What kind of numbers are everyone expecting? I'm probably biased since I own him but I think he'll go .310-20-83 this year.

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Eno Sarris, a guy I respect from fangraphs said this about Perez:

"He's a good player, but he hadn't shown that power before last season. If he hits .280 -- catcher BABIP is traditionally about 10 points lower than league average -- and regresses power-wise, he'd be barely top twelve. There's risk there."

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Currently going Round 10 or 11th. Did a mock last night and he went in late 10th i think. He is getting popular, i wont be shocked if his ADP goes to round 7 or 8 towards the middle of march. I am going after him.

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In two catcher leagues, he's the type of guy you love to target and team up with a lower end power source (i.e. Arrencibia, Flowers, etc.). This way, even if there is a power regression, you're still looking solid at the position at a relative discount as opposed to what the Posey's and Mauer's of the world will cost you.

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He's a guy that I would like to have and would take him if he is there, but I'm not going to reach for him. I think the hype train will be going by the time of drafts. He's just another reason that you don't need to draft Posey. There is plenty of value to be had at catcher.

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He's a guy that I would like to have and would take him if he is there, but I'm not going to reach for him. I think the hype train will be going by the time of drafts. He's just another reason that you don't need to draft Posey. There is plenty of value to be had at catcher.

I def hear what you're saying, but even with the hype, you'd still have to think that he goes after these guys in most standard drafts:

Posey

Mauer

Santana

Yadier

Miggy Montero

Wieters

Napoli

Possibly V-Mart depending on site eligibility

So in my opinion, if he goes anywhere in that 9-10 range, his value seems pretty spot on no?

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He's a guy that I would like to have and would take him if he is there, but I'm not going to reach for him. I think the hype train will be going by the time of drafts. He's just another reason that you don't need to draft Posey. There is plenty of value to be had at catcher.

I def hear what you're saying, but even with the hype, you'd still have to think that he goes after these guys in most standard drafts:

Posey

Mauer

Santana

Yadier

Miggy Montero

Wieters

Napoli

Possibly V-Mart depending on site eligibility

So in my opinion, if he goes anywhere in that 9-10 range, his value seems pretty spot on no?

Yeah. That's where his value should be. I think he could potentially end up being drafted ahead of Martinez and Napoli in some leagues. I'll take him in that 9-10 range, but I won't reach outside of the range to take him.

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He's a guy that I would like to have and would take him if he is there, but I'm not going to reach for him. I think the hype train will be going by the time of drafts. He's just another reason that you don't need to draft Posey. There is plenty of value to be had at catcher.

I def hear what you're saying, but even with the hype, you'd still have to think that he goes after these guys in most standard drafts:

Posey

Mauer

Santana

Yadier

Miggy Montero

Wieters

Napoli

Possibly V-Mart depending on site eligibility

So in my opinion, if he goes anywhere in that 9-10 range, his value seems pretty spot on no?

Yeah. That's where his value should be. I think he could potentially end up being drafted ahead of Martinez and Napoli in some leagues. I'll take him in that 9-10 range, but I won't reach outside of the range to take him.

V-Mart I can see, but I still think you'll see Napoli go ahead of Perez in most drafts just because people become so enamored by the "Everyday AB" facet of his game, and rightfully so I guess.

That said, 8-10 range works just fine for me, and if the ADP holds true, he'll certainly be on at least one of my squads this spring.

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Eno Sarris, a guy I respect from fangraphs said this about Perez:

"He's a good player, but he hadn't shown that power before last season. If he hits .280 -- catcher BABIP is traditionally about 10 points lower than league average -- and regresses power-wise, he'd be barely top twelve. There's risk there."

I don't buy the idea that he hadn't shown the power. It seems to be a popular thing guys are saying without taking into account that he is a beast of a man and was very young at every level that he played at in the minor leagues. It's just really hard to evaluate how much power they really have when they are so young for their level. Those guys tend to develop their power quickly as they fill out at age appropriate levels. He was only 22 last year. In his last year in AA as a 21-year old he had 9 HRs in 286 ABs. That is pretty much right in line with where he produced last year.

I think there is a strong chance he is a 20 HR guy now with the ability for more in the future.

Also, his BABIP was actually remarkably low when you consider he had a 24% line drive rate. He probably should have had a BABIP closer to .330 than .300 and probably should have had a higher average, even for a catcher.

The O-swing and lack of plate discipline is a little concerning, but we have seen other hitters do the same. He is from the Pablo Sandoval/Vlad Guerrero school of "see ball, hit ball" and sometimes that can lead to problems for hitters, but that high line drive rate suggests that he might be one of those special ultra-aggressive types that can get away with it and still hit .300.

This is something to watch for this year. Pitchers would be foolish to leave anything in the zone for him if he will chase out of the zone. He will see a steady diet of pitches out of the zone early on and must adjust to that.

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Eno Sarris, a guy I respect from fangraphs said this about Perez:

"He's a good player, but he hadn't shown that power before last season. If he hits .280 -- catcher BABIP is traditionally about 10 points lower than league average -- and regresses power-wise, he'd be barely top twelve. There's risk there."

I don't buy the idea that he hadn't shown the power. It seems to be a popular thing guys are saying without taking into account that he is a beast of a man and was very young at every level that he played at in the minor leagues. It's just really hard to evaluate how much power they really have when they are so young for their level. Those guys tend to develop their power quickly as they fill out at age appropriate levels. He was only 22 last year. In his last year in AA as a 21-year old he had 9 HRs in 286 ABs. That is pretty much right in line with where he produced last year.

I think there is a strong chance he is a 20 HR guy now with the ability for more in the future.

Also, his BABIP was actually remarkably low when you consider he had a 24% line drive rate. He probably should have had a BABIP closer to .330 than .300 and probably should have had a higher average, even for a catcher.

The O-swing and lack of plate discipline is a little concerning, but we have seen other hitters do the same. He is from the Pablo Sandoval/Vlad Guerrero school of "see ball, hit ball" and sometimes that can lead to problems for hitters, but that high line drive rate suggests that he might be one of those special ultra-aggressive types that can get away with it and still hit .300.

This is something to watch for this year. Pitchers would be foolish to leave anything in the zone for him if he will chase out of the zone. He will see a steady diet of pitches out of the zone early on and must adjust to that.

The guy definitely has power. 6'-3", 245 pounds. It's all about the fly balls.

Batted ball profile:

2011: 29.2% LD / 41.5% GB / 29.2% FB ---- 7.9% HR/FB

2012: 24.2% LD / 44.2% GB / 31.7% FB ---- 13.1% HR/FB

That's a very modest gain, but it's trending in the right direction, and typical of young players as they mature. Is it safe to say that we can expect at least a 32% FB rate this year? If he gets 500 ABs, that's 160 fly balls, and about 21 homeruns using a 13.1% HR/FB rate. They say HR/FB normalizes around 10%, so if that's the case, he would hit only 16 homeruns. As you can see, increasing the flyball rate will go a long way to determining his HR output. The 500 ABs I used is also slightly conservative. With health, he could probably get closer to 600, which can only help his counting stats.

Vlad and Sandoval have been mentioned as comparables. How about Robinson Cano? He's a guy with a strong contact rate and has a hard time taking a walk. Cano broke into the league at age 22 (Perez is only 22 an already got 2 years under his belt) and look at his batted ball profile progression:

Robinson Cano batted ball profile:

(Age 22) 2005: 20.6% LD / 50.1% GB / 29.3% FB ---- 10.4% HR/FB -- 14 HR

(Age 23) 2006: 19.9% LD / 51.9% GB / 28.2% FB ---- 12.3% HR/FB -- 15 HR

(Age 24) 2007: 16.9% LD / 52.2% GB / 30.9% FB ---- 11.5% HR/FB -- 19 HR

(Age 25) 2008: 19.4% LD / 47.4% GB / 33.2% FB ---- 7.9% HR/FB -- 14 HR

(Age 26) 2009: 19.9% LD / 46.6% GB / 33.4% FB ---- 13.0% HR/FB -- 25 HR

(Age 27) 2010: 19.3% LD / 44.2% GB / 36.5% FB ---- 14.4% HR/FB -- 29 HR

(Age 28) 2011: 22.3% LD / 46.7% GB / 31.0% FB ---- 17.0% HR/FB -- 28 HR

(Age 29) 2012: 25.6% LD / 48.7% GB / 25.8% FB ---- 24.1% HR/FB -- 33 HR (unsustainable hr/fb%)

As I mentioned earlier, a young player usually sees his FB% increase as he matures. Cano is a good example. He did not hit 20+ HR until he achieved FB% of around 33%. Perez has already had a season of nearly 32% FB. Cano has had the advantage of his home ballpark's short porch, so his HR/FB is probably elevated higher than Perez's will ever be. That will make it more important that Perez increase his FB% rate.

Thus, it is not a total slam dunk that he will hit 20+ homeruns this year, but it is likely if he continues to progress. Even if he doesn't, he's still a top 10 catcher, because you can bank on his average not hurting you and he will chip in respectable power numbers.

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FYI - He has a monster platoon split. Absolutely crushes lefties. Righties? Not so much...

I was afraid to look after this, but found that it's actually encouraging.

.279 last year vs. Righties isn't so bad after .291 the year before. In 325 career ABs versus righties he is a .283 hitter with 8 homers. I'll take that kind of split any time from a hitter. That is pretty solid actually. But yes, he brutalizes lefties to the tune of .393 with 6 bombs in only 112 ABs. Haha, only 6 Ks in those 112 ABs.

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That is actually very good knowledge. If he crushes lefties to that tune, he may be a guy I might target with another power-friendly C (i.e. Arencibia, Flowers, as someone mentioned above-- but the truth is, I could probably find someone on the wire after the draft to pick-up with a nice split vs. RHB, or just watch trends early and hopefully find someone out there). If I made Salvador my main catcher, I would intentionally keep an eye open for someone who can hit RHB if I wanted to split them up (daily lineups here).

I always tend to carry more than the minimum, and I'm in a 1 catcher league (OBP and not AVG as well, though- so Perez with a low OBP and not many HR isn't any more valuable than a John Jaso or Ellis without any HR and a higher OBP, depending on RBI and runs I suppose) and at one point was carrying A.J. Ellis, Arencibia, and Montero last year-- then A.J., Jaso, and Arencibia at a later date.

If I can fit it into my budget, knowing he crushes lefties like that-- and also being someone who likes the Cano comparison (correct me if I'm wrong, but Cano was never projected to have huge power-- more of a line drive guy, no?), not to mention that he could have a higher ceiling than some guys going above him... I may try to get him for a decent price to pair with another guy in my auction. The thing is, I too think the hype train is going to be out of control, especially if he tears it up in spring training. If this happens, I would not be the least bit surprised to see him going for $20+ in my auction league come draft time. C is too deep to spend more than $10-15.... for me at least. Too deep of a position.

Drafting Posey is completely unnecessary but I also think that he may fall or come cheaper because of this, too. But again.... do you want to be the guy to own the most expensive C? I'm sure a lot of people felt dumb owning Mauer during his down year when he was going for something like $44 in auction drafts (or some absurd price!). I think Posey may free-fall in regular drafts and go for less than people think just because no one will want to be the guy to draft him in auction leagues.

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That is actually very good knowledge. If he crushes lefties to that tune, he may be a guy I might target with another power-friendly C (i.e. Arencibia, Flowers, as someone mentioned above-- but the truth is, I could probably find someone on the wire after the draft to pick-up with a nice split vs. RHB, or just watch trends early and hopefully find someone out there). If I made Salvador my main catcher, I would intentionally keep an eye open for someone who can hit RHB if I wanted to split them up (daily lineups here).

I always tend to carry more than the minimum, and I'm in a 1 catcher league (OBP and not AVG as well, though- so Perez with a low OBP and not many HR isn't any more valuable than a John Jaso or Ellis without any HR and a higher OBP, depending on RBI and runs I suppose) and at one point was carrying A.J. Ellis, Arencibia, and Montero last year-- then A.J., Jaso, and Arencibia at a later date.

If I can fit it into my budget, knowing he crushes lefties like that-- and also being someone who likes the Cano comparison (correct me if I'm wrong, but Cano was never projected to have huge power-- more of a line drive guy, no?), not to mention that he could have a higher ceiling than some guys going above him... I may try to get him for a decent price to pair with another guy in my auction. The thing is, I too think the hype train is going to be out of control, especially if he tears it up in spring training. If this happens, I would not be the least bit surprised to see him going for $20+ in my auction league come draft time. C is too deep to spend more than $10-15.... for me at least. Too deep of a position.

Drafting Posey is completely unnecessary but I also think that he may fall or come cheaper because of this, too. But again.... do you want to be the guy to own the most expensive C? I'm sure a lot of people felt dumb owning Mauer during his down year when he was going for something like $44 in auction drafts (or some absurd price!). I think Posey may free-fall in regular drafts and go for less than people think just because no one will want to be the guy to draft him in auction leagues.

You're over-thinking a lot here.

Don't be on the lookout for catchers that hit righties well to platoon with Perez. The whole point of Czar's post is that, even though he hits worse against right-handed pitchers comparatively, he still hits them well. .283 is great against either side for a catcher, and I really doubt you'll find many platoon catchers that will hit higher than that against righties. Given Perez is still young and could improve, you're only going to extract a few extra home runs by platooning him with an Arencibia type.

I agree that hype could push his price too high.

But in terms of Posey, there's no way his price falls in auction drafts due to the thinking you mention. You will have plenty of guys in every league willing to go $27+ on him.

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That is actually very good knowledge. If he crushes lefties to that tune, he may be a guy I might target with another power-friendly C (i.e. Arencibia, Flowers, as someone mentioned above-- but the truth is, I could probably find someone on the wire after the draft to pick-up with a nice split vs. RHB, or just watch trends early and hopefully find someone out there). If I made Salvador my main catcher, I would intentionally keep an eye open for someone who can hit RHB if I wanted to split them up (daily lineups here).

I always tend to carry more than the minimum, and I'm in a 1 catcher league (OBP and not AVG as well, though- so Perez with a low OBP and not many HR isn't any more valuable than a John Jaso or Ellis without any HR and a higher OBP, depending on RBI and runs I suppose) and at one point was carrying A.J. Ellis, Arencibia, and Montero last year-- then A.J., Jaso, and Arencibia at a later date.

If I can fit it into my budget, knowing he crushes lefties like that-- and also being someone who likes the Cano comparison (correct me if I'm wrong, but Cano was never projected to have huge power-- more of a line drive guy, no?), not to mention that he could have a higher ceiling than some guys going above him... I may try to get him for a decent price to pair with another guy in my auction. The thing is, I too think the hype train is going to be out of control, especially if he tears it up in spring training. If this happens, I would not be the least bit surprised to see him going for $20+ in my auction league come draft time. C is too deep to spend more than $10-15.... for me at least. Too deep of a position.

Drafting Posey is completely unnecessary but I also think that he may fall or come cheaper because of this, too. But again.... do you want to be the guy to own the most expensive C? I'm sure a lot of people felt dumb owning Mauer during his down year when he was going for something like $44 in auction drafts (or some absurd price!). I think Posey may free-fall in regular drafts and go for less than people think just because no one will want to be the guy to draft him in auction leagues.

You're over-thinking a lot here.

Don't be on the lookout for catchers that hit righties well to platoon with Perez. The whole point of Czar's post is that, even though he hits worse against right-handed pitchers comparatively, he still hits them well. .283 is great against either side for a catcher, and I really doubt you'll find many platoon catchers that will hit higher than that against righties. Given Perez is still young and could improve, you're only going to extract a few extra home runs by platooning him with an Arencibia type.

I agree that hype could push his price too high.

But in terms of Posey, there's no way his price falls in auction drafts due to the thinking you mention. You will have plenty of guys in every league willing to go $27+ on him.

I agree. Perez is also young, and it's conceivable that he will improve against right handed pitchers. It's his 3rd year, but he's actually only had 463 plate appearances in the Majors.

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I've got his baseline at .300/60/14/75 with upside for .310+/65/18-20/90.

Really it depends on a couple things. As others have stated, we'll have to see if he has that 20 HR pop now or it's yet to develop. I don't expect him to score a lot of runs unless he gets moved up to higher than 5th in that lineup. However, the Royals have some talented guys at the top, so RBI chances should be there. Just my two cents.

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and I'm in a 1 catcher league (OBP and not AVG as well, though- so Perez with a low OBP and not many HR isn't any more valuable than a John Jaso or Ellis without any HR and a higher OBP, depending on RBI and runs I suppose) and at one point was carrying A.J. Ellis, Arencibia, and Montero last year-- then A.J., Jaso, and Arencibia at a later date.

Sorry for the OT, but since I play in same type of the league, look at getting/drafting Mauer (I got them two for like 14+1). Mauer kills righties (last 3 years .343/.425/.495 with 19 of his 22 HRs against them) and his OBP balances out Perez' (lack of). Pretty sick combo @C if you can spare a bench spot.

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really excited to own this guy this year..could have a very nice season and assert himself as a top 5 catcher going into next year..killed it in winter ball and killed it in spring..this guy is legit! Here's to hoping he stays healthy. #stud

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really excited to own this guy this year..could have a very nice season and assert himself as a top 5 catcher going into next year..killed it in winter ball and killed it in spring..this guy is legit! Here's to hoping he stays healthy. #stud

I agree, he may not give you those rbis but hell contribute everywhere else and hes got a little bit of pop in his bat as well. Im glad i could actually wait ona catcher this year and get a very solid one

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really excited to own this guy this year..could have a very nice season and assert himself as a top 5 catcher going into next year..killed it in winter ball and killed it in spring..this guy is legit! Here's to hoping he stays healthy. #stud

I agree, he may not give you those rbis but hell contribute everywhere else and hes got a little bit of pop in his bat as well. Im glad i could actually wait ona catcher this year and get a very solid one

Why won't he contribute in RBI?

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