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2ndCitySox

2013 SP Tiers

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SP Tiers for H2H. Rankings were made using W’s, ERA, WHIP, K/Start. I think K/Start is a nice stat to use for H2H. The tiers are labeled based on Metallica albums. Note: I do not drive a Camaro with T-tops.

A + indicates a guy who will likely start the year on the DL. A ? is typically a young SP who may or may not crack the rotation. Ranking is based on the assumption that he will.

MASTER OF PUPPETS

Clayton Kershaw

Justin Verlander

Stephen Strasburg

…AND JUSTICE FOR ALL

Cole Hamels

David Price

Felix Hernandez

Cliff Lee

Matt Cain

RIDE THE LIGHTNING

Chris Sale

R.A. Dickey

Jered Weaver

CC Sabathia

Gio Gonzalez

Madison Bumgarner

Adam Wainwright

Yu Darvish

GARAGE DAYS

Johnny Cueto

Ardolis Chapman

Zack Greinke

James Shields

Mat Latos

KILL EM ALL

Matt Moore

Josh Johnson

Roy Halladay

Jordan Zimmermann

Max Scherzer

Kris Medlen

Jake Peavy

Brandon Morrow

THE BLACK ALBUM

A.J. Griffin

Mike Fiers

Jeff Samardzija

Carpenter

Doug Fister

Matt Harvey

Brett Anderson

Yovani Gallardo

LOAD

Dan Haren

Jon Lester

Ian Kennedy

Shaun Marcum

Corey Luebke +

Lance Lynn

Mike Minor

Hiroki Kuroda

Kyle Lohse

Wade Miley

S & M

Ryan Vogelsong

Jeremy Hellickson

Anibal Sanchez

Jarrod Parker

Tim Lincecum

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Beachy +

Jon Niese

A.J. Burnett

Marco Estrada

Colby Lewis +

Johan Santana

Jason Hammel

Shelby Miller ?

Ryan Dempster

DEATH MAGNETIC

C.J. Wilson

Matt Garza

Homer Bailey

Dillon Gee

Miguel Gonzalez

Pineda +

Dan Hudson +

Felix Doubront

Chris Tillman

Jaime Garcia

Tim Hudson

Hisashi Iwakuma

RELOAD

Dan Straily

Derek Holland

Edwin Jackson

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Patrick Corbin

Ross Detwiler

Trevor Cahill

Wei-Yin Chen

Josh Beckett

Andy Pettite

ST. ANGER

Julio Teheran ?

Scott Baker

Phil Hughes

Alex Cobb

Scott Diamond

Paul Maholm

Tommy Milone

Chris Capuano

Carlos Villanueva

THE LOU REED DEBACLE

James McDonald

Tommy Hanson

Vance Worley

Chad Billingsley

Matt Harrison

Bartolo Colon

Bud Norris

Justin Masterson

Wily Peralta

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If there's any bigger names I forgot, please let me know!

Flame on!

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Note: if a well recognized name that is a marginal SP isn't on there (i.e Floyd/ danks) it is because I think they are WW material.

I didn't project Bauer yet, though I assume he will make the rotation.

One name I realized that could make this cut : J Chacin (but probably not)

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Chapman in the Bomb Man tier.

Projections: 10 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.5K/start.

He's a major wild card

Dodgers Ryu: need to dig deeper....

Pettite, Carpenter, doubrount, detwiler, vargas also overlooked. Not sure how carp happened.

So I owe you guys five more

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Sale too high, Zimmerman/M.Moore too low, Luebke won't be ready. Really like the value in the Crash Man group.

Yeah I was surprised with Sale, I probably wouldnt take him that high either. Zimmermann needs to get the K's up a bit, and Moore of course could be an ace this year.

Thanks for the feedback!

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gavin flloyd and danks are waiver wire material. dont draft them unless you are in a 16+ league. forgot about daniel hudson. thanks. usually dont draft stats you can get from the waiver wire unless the guys have the potential not to be.

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Holland is too low also, guy has great stuff and his whip has been declining every year.

IMO, he's probably a #4 type SP in fantasy. Assuming his K's are solid, whip ~ 1.20, 4 era and pitching for a good team to boot.

And Weaver has to be a #1 in every league pretty much.

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Sale too high, Zimmerman/M.Moore too low, Luebke won't be ready. Really like the value in the Crash Man group.

Zimmerman i think makes sense there. Moore i disagree, i think he's too high, not too low. I wouldnt trust him as my #2...no way.

#3 even , im a little leary of him there but would be ok with that.

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Luebke is in a Teir above Gallardo? And Morrow?

I personally wouldn't touch Luebke until rounds after those guys were gone.

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Nice work 2CS, but just glancing at the tiers, the very first thing that sticks out to me is that Gallardo is WAAAY too low. Now I get that the WHIP/occasional blowup will always keep him out of the elite tier/ceiling, but its REALLY time the guy starts getting his props. After a fantastic 2011,for him post the counting stats he did last year with that team/defense behind him, and then rank him slightly above Marcum is a little careless.

Whether you like him or not, I really don't see any way you can quanitfy him as anything LESS than a top 25 SP.

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I know it's splitting hairs but...

I would have put Price and Hamels in the Metal Man tier.

Weaver in the elec man.

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Couple days ago, my friend and I came up with this list of the top 24 SP (guys we wanted to make sure to get 2 of in a 15-teamer, and try to get 3 of in 12-teamers)...

Verlander, Justin

Kershaw, Clayton

Strasburg, Stephen

Price, David

Lee, Cliff

Hamels, Cole

Weaver, Jered

Cain, Matt

Hernandez, Felix

Gonzalez, Gio

Bumgarner, Madison

Greinke, Zack

Sabathia, CC

Halladay, Roy

Darvish, Yu

Wainwright, Adam

Scherzer, Max

Shields, James

Latos, Mat

Cueto, Johnny

Sale, Chris

Zimmermann, Jordan

Gallardo, Yovani

Moore, Matt

Guys that just missed:

Samardzija, Jeff

Morrow, Brandon

Medlen, Kris

Harvey, Matt

Dickey, R.A.

Lincecum, Tim

Kennedy, Ian

Minor, Mike

Anderson, Brett

Parker, Jarrod

Fister, Doug

Wilson, C.J.

Johnson, Josh

Garza, Matt

Haren, Dan

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Luebke is in a Teir above Gallardo? And Morrow?

I personally wouldn't touch Luebke until rounds after those guys were gone.

Yep, I agree. Because these were ran with k/start, the value is more skewed to a value per game basis, rather than overall. Also, I wasn't sure when luebke was going to be back. But, when he is ready to go, I think he could provide sneaky value.

Tiers don't = where I would draft a guy, per se

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WHAT THE! COLBY LEWIS in the same tier as Cueto, Greinke, Moore,...... Was that a mistake? Come on, Colby Lewis!

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Yeah, I saw that. I think I forgot to carry a 1.

Thanks.

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Nice work 2CS, but just glancing at the tiers, the very first thing that sticks out to me is that Gallardo is WAAAY too low. Now I get that the WHIP/occasional blowup will always keep him out of the elite tier/ceiling, but its REALLY time the guy starts getting his props. After a fantastic 2011,for him post the counting stats he did last year with that team/defense behind him, and then rank him slightly above Marcum is a little careless.

Whether you like him or not, I really don't see any way you can quanitfy him as anything LESS than a top 25 SP.

I'm not a big fan of gallardo, but he should be. I'll look again and see if I had a number not quite rate. Maybe his k/game kinda sucks? A 9k/9 IP is great unless the guy doesn't go that deep. But I need to look again.

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Sale too high, Zimmerman/M.Moore too low, Luebke won't be ready. Really like the value in the Crash Man group.

I'd also move Shields up one tier.

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For what's it worth regarding Luebke. Bill James has him @ 155 IP, a 3 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 8.13 k/9 rate....which is all pretty damn good. But, it is Bill James.

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What are the chances for each of the following to start the season in the majors:

Dylan Bundy

Shelby Miller

Tyler Skaggs

Danny Hultzen

Taijuan Walker

Julio Teheran

Trevor Bauer

These are guys I'd like to include on the list but I don't know how likely it is for them to make the rotation.

Obviously, my initial post had a few flaws, so now that I've run it by the masses, I can fix it and make it better.

If there's any other young SP's I'm missing that you think will start in the bigs, let me know.

Thanks again!

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Nice list. Brett Anderson will be bomb man or better. You missed him.

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Nice list. Brett Anderson will be bomb man or better. You missed him.

Crap.

I ran a list of SP through fangraphs based on IP. Brett didn't have enough. Thanks for the catch.

I intend on adding Straily as well. It might be more proactive to go ahead and project some of the young guys assuming they will start in the bigs. If they don't, just dump them from the rankings.

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Why is Roy omitted from this list in the OP?

Oswalt?

Halladay is there as "Doc"

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