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Yu Darvish 2013 Outlook

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Yu Darvish as a 25 year old rookie last year showed a lot of dominance with his 221 Ks.

I think he is a lot better of a pitcher than his 3.90 ERA led on. I'm looking for improvements across the board for this guy. His own worst enemy last year was himself with the BBs. But now that he'll be more comfortable with the MLB strike zone I expect his walk rate to drop fairly drastically next year.

Last year in just comparing his first to his second half his BB/9 dropped an entire whole walk from 4.65 in the first half to 3.65 in the second half. His K/9 also went up from 10.26 to 10.56 in the second half.

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His walk rate decreased in the last month. September was incredible, as he had a 1.72 bb/9. August and July were as ugly - or uglier - as anything he had done all year. It's entirely possible things suddenly clicked. But he wasn't showing steady progress with his control across the entire second half.

The k/9 rate is imo entirely too small a change to point to it as having even the smallest bit of meaning. August was noticably higher but July/September looked like the other months.

While his xfip got smaller in the second half, his actual era increased (3.71/3.29 xfip compared to a 3.59/4.26 era).

Aside from the xfip/era, the other changes I see between the first two halves is in the second half he gave up more line drives, fewer grounders, more fly balls, and WAY more pop ups and a LOT fewer home runs. 8.8 pop up rate 1st half vs. 14.9 pop up rate 2nd half. 11.3 fb/hr rate 1st half, 6.8 fb/hr rate 2nd half.

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I read a lot of fangraphs articles on him. 50% of pitches that nibble as much as he did get injured the next year. However his final 10 or 11 starts, after a sit down with Ron Washington, he threw many more strikes. Continuing that plus not pitching in the WBC should help him out a ton this year. He has ace potential if he keeps throwing strikes, and a 17 win, 3.25 era, 215 k season wouldn't surprise me.

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DICE-K number 2

Anything to back up this statement?

They aren't even close. Dice-k didn't have a fip or xfip below 4.00 in his ENTIRE CAREER. Darvish had both at 3.52 or lower last year. Dice-K's one good year was pure luck. He had potential but he ALWAYS nibbled and then just lost faith in his stuff. Darvish on the other hand improved as the year went along and started attacking hitters, and his era vs fip/xfip would show he was unlucky. Darvish's final 8 games he had 2 walks or less in ALL of them, so while 8 starts isn't a huge sample size, the fact that every single start he was able to sustain his improvements can only be looked at as a good thing.

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DICE-K number 2

Hey he was right about Pujols being finished last season. :ph34r:

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DICE-K number 2

Hey he was right about Pujols being finished last season. :ph34r:

I wouldn't say Albert was finished by any means last year. But if he did call for mad regression then kudos.

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I don't think people fully understand just how difficult major transitions are. Imagine picking up from an environment where you are thriving and going to a brand new place where 85% of players you face are better. You are going to have to do so much better to get a similar result. I think Yu's season was remarkable all things considered. Going forward, consistency and limiting walks will be the key. Even a slightest improvement in BB% will boost his overall production.

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I don't think people fully understand just how difficult major transitions are. Imagine picking up from an environment where you are thriving and going to a brand new place where 85% of players you face are better. You are going to have to do so much better to get a similar result. I think Yu's season was remarkable all things considered. Going forward, consistency and limiting walks will be the key. Even a slightest improvement in BB% will boost his overall production.

To further add to this thinking...

The fact that he had a 10.71 K/9 in his last year in Japan and then has a 10.40 K/9 in the majors the following year is damn impressive to me.

The whole Dice-K thing is ridiculous. Yu was a year younger entering (a much better league) and he was far more productive.

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(a much better league)

By better league I mean there is way more talent in the majors today than 5 years prior when Dice-K was a rookie.

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I don't think people fully understand just how difficult major transitions are. Imagine picking up from an environment where you are thriving and going to a brand new place where 85% of players you face are better. You are going to have to do so much better to get a similar result. I think Yu's season was remarkable all things considered. Going forward, consistency and limiting walks will be the key. Even a slightest improvement in BB% will boost his overall production.

To further add to this thinking...

The fact that he had a 10.71 K/9 in his last year in Japan and then has a 10.40 K/9 in the majors the following year is damn impressive to me.

The whole Dice-K thing is ridiculous. Yu was a year younger entering (a much better league) and he was far more productive.

He has an amazing arsenal of pitches and when he gets ahead in the count its like death to the batter. If he limits those walks, which I imagine he will this year, he could be an ace for the Rangers.

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I don't think people fully understand just how difficult major transitions are. Imagine picking up from an environment where you are thriving and going to a brand new place where 85% of players you face are better. You are going to have to do so much better to get a similar result. I think Yu's season was remarkable all things considered. Going forward, consistency and limiting walks will be the key. Even a slightest improvement in BB% will boost his overall production.

To further add to this thinking...

The fact that he had a 10.71 K/9 in his last year in Japan and then has a 10.40 K/9 in the majors the following year is damn impressive to me.

The whole Dice-K thing is ridiculous. Yu was a year younger entering (a much better league) and he was far more productive.

He has an amazing arsenal of pitches and when he gets ahead in the count its like death to the batter. If he limits those walks, which I imagine he will this year, he could be an ace for the Rangers.

Wasn't he their ace last year?

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I don't think people fully understand just how difficult major transitions are. Imagine picking up from an environment where you are thriving and going to a brand new place where 85% of players you face are better. You are going to have to do so much better to get a similar result. I think Yu's season was remarkable all things considered. Going forward, consistency and limiting walks will be the key. Even a slightest improvement in BB% will boost his overall production.

To further add to this thinking...

The fact that he had a 10.71 K/9 in his last year in Japan and then has a 10.40 K/9 in the majors the following year is damn impressive to me.

The whole Dice-K thing is ridiculous. Yu was a year younger entering (a much better league) and he was far more productive.

He has an amazing arsenal of pitches and when he gets ahead in the count its like death to the batter. If he limits those walks, which I imagine he will this year, he could be an ace for the Rangers.

Wasn't he their ace last year?

In theory, but statistically it was Harrison. Darvish pitched like their "ace" over his final 8 or 9 starts though. That is the expected carry over to this year.

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DICE-K number 2

Hey he was right about Pujols being finished last season. :ph34r:

hey.....whoever you are.....didnt say pujols would finish in last. I said before the season and on this site that his numbers were not going to be good. darvish....his era is bad. didnt improve in the second half either.

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DICE-K number 2

Hey he was right about Pujols being finished last season. :ph34r:

hey.....whoever you are.....didnt say pujols would finish in last. I said before the season and on this site that his numbers were not going to be good. darvish....his era is bad. didnt improve in the second half either.

3.90 ERA is not bad for a guy making his first go around the league and pitching half his games in Texas.

Also, Houston got added to that divison. A few more starts vs. them is a nice recipe to more success. Somehow the Mariners? owned him last year.

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DICE-K number 2

Hey he was right about Pujols being finished last season. :ph34r:

hey.....whoever you are.....didnt say pujols would finish in last. I said before the season and on this site that his numbers were not going to be good. darvish....his era is bad. didnt improve in the second half either.

3.90 ERA is not bad for a guy making his first go around the league and pitching half his games in Texas.

Also, Houston got added to that divison. A few more starts vs. them is a nice recipe to more success. Somehow the Mariners? owned him last year.

Soon Seattle Mariners will be Seattle Seahawks in that tough Division....

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Decent SP 3, if you build a good pitching staff around him you can probably handle his hiccups. But his Y! rank is a little to high for my taste(56).

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Over/under 3.5 ERA?

Under. But hey his main attraction ain't the ERA, but the K's.

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Over/under 3.5 ERA?

I'm generally a bit of a pessimist in my projections so I'll go with the over. But as was pointed out above, he's not being drafted for the era (or whip). Strikeouts and wins, please.

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He's been dominating this spring. I agree that walks will be a huge factor for his success. I think he gets under a 3.5 ERA. It's the WHIP and K/BB I'm concerned about tho.

Choose one: Greinke, Darvish, Dickey, CC, Wainwright, Sale

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I like the K rate last year but often the rest of the package was often F Yu.

He walks a few too many for my tastes. He really salvaged his stat line with a great September when he finally stopped walking and 3-balling a huge percentage of batters. Without the strong down-the-stretch push, he would have posted in excess of 4.00/1.30 which is pretty frightening given where he's being drafted. The other 5 months were mediocre to horrid.

He still has a lot of value in AL onlys or deeper leagues. Mixers, he's high upside with a fair share of risk.

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He's been dominating this spring. I agree that walks will be a huge factor for his success. I think he gets under a 3.5 ERA. It's the WHIP and K/BB I'm concerned about tho.

Choose one: Greinke, Darvish, Dickey, CC, Wainwright, Sale

Waino
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