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The Sarge

Trade Help

14 posts in this topic

Just looking for opinions.

It's a 12 team auction keeper league, 5x5 stats (with OBP instead of runs). Our cap is $270 and we can keep up to 8.

While kicking tires I was offered this deal (all values are for 2013):

I get: Elvis Andrus ($21) and Mike Moustakas ($8)

I give: Chase Headley ($15) and Jake Peavy ($6)

I'm giving it contemplation because I'm not 100% on who I'm keeping. As of right now I'm keeping Adam Jones ($14), Austin Jackson ($6), and Johnny Cueto ($8) for sure, but after that it's up in the air. I'm thinking of keeping Chase Headley ($15), Starlin Castro ($25) and Addison Reed ($7).

If I go the route of keeping the extra 3, this deal becomes interesting. I could always do the deal and keep Andrus and Moustakas over Castro and Headley at cheaper prices (while not much cheaper at SS). Of course that's if this deal even makes sense in that regard.

Here's the rest of my team if it matters:

C Carlos Santana $28

C J.P. Arencibia $9

1B Joey Votto $48

2B Dan Uggla $18

3B Adrian Beltre $34

SS Starlin Castro $25

CI Brett Lawrie $32

MI Howie Kendrick $15

OF Adam Jones $14

OF Chris Young $11

OF Jon Jay $15

OF Austin Jackson $6

OF Delmon Young $7

Util Chase Headley $15

Bench Tyler Colvin $15

P Clayton Kershaw $40

P Jake Peavy $6

P Ricky Romero $11

P Johnny Cueto $8

P Kyle Lohse $15

P Brandon League $10

P Rafael Betancourt $10

P Addison Reed $7

P Clayton Richard $15

Bench Jared Burton $15

Bench Colby Lewis $6

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I dont love it, I do like the idea of moving Headley as Im not big on him this year for several reasons so I would float an email to the league or on the message board that Headley is available for a deal along with some of your other "borderline" guys.

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I just wasn't sure if Andrus was a better option to keep over Castro and if Moustakas was worth keeping. That's what probably would have tipped the scales for me.

He also has guys like Ike Davis ($13), B.J. Upton ($15), Giancarlo Stanton ($34), Madison Baumgarner ($18) that I had eyes on as well. Only guys from my team he really has interest in are Adam Jones (who I don't really want to trade), Headley and Peavy.

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I dont love it, I do like the idea of moving Headley as Im not big on him this year for several reasons so I would float an email to the league or on the message board that Headley is available for a deal along with some of your other "borderline" guys.

It's hilarious that EVERYONE from San Diego hates Headley this year. I've got him around 70th overall, way later than he's going. My friend said he won't take him in the top 100.

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I dont love it, I do like the idea of moving Headley as Im not big on him this year for several reasons so I would float an email to the league or on the message board that Headley is available for a deal along with some of your other "borderline" guys.

It's hilarious that EVERYONE from San Diego hates Headley this year. I've got him around 70th overall, way later than he's going. My friend said he won't take him in the top 100.

He is my 8th ranked 3B.

Its the old head and heart thing right? My heart says "he finally broke out and will do it again" but my head which has been reading on the stats all winter says its not likely to come close to repeating: His GB/FB ratio continues to decline, his HR to FB rate was abnormally high and his "just enough" HR rate accounted for a 1/3rd of his HR. All of these things point to major regression which is going to disappoint those who overvalue him in the drafts and auctions.

Now we could all be wrong, he could actually improve his FB rate, get more lift and breakout like several guys do in their late 20's, but if the stats stay the same, he just wont repeat.

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Love the analysis parrothead. Only fly in the ointment is them moving in the fences in PETCO. HR/FB rate doubled in 2nd half, so that's gotta slow down. But if he gets 550 AB's, a 15% hr/fb rate (2nd half rate was an absurd 27%), and maintains his 32% FB's , 550*.32*.15= 26.4 HR.s. He's only gotta hit HR's all year like he did in the 1st half, not the 2nd, to get 25 homers. The question is, of course, will he? It's only one a week...

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Is it worth trying to make a counter offer?

He has interest in Headley and Peavy, he's got guys like Ike Davis, B.J. Upton, Stanton, Bumgarner, Andrus, Moustakas on the block (prices are in a post above). Is it even worth trying to figure out?

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I am not a fan of Andrus, but I like the thinking of selling high on Headley. Pitchers are going to treat him different this year, and he has very little protection in that lineup. Couple in the fact that LA and SF boast great pitching parks with great pitchers in the league, I'd deal him.

Instead of Andrus, get an OF from him

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The only outfielders he has are Stanton and Upton (at least the ones that he is actively shopping). I doubt he'd do a Stanton/someone for Headley/Peavy swap (unless he did it 2 for 1). The only reason I thought of Moustakas was so I could at least entertain the idea of keeping a 3B aside from Lawrie or Beltre.

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I like Moustakas, but you have no need for Elvis with Starlin on the roster. Elvis is extremely overrated, look at his numbers and really ask yourself what he gives you outside of a few extra steals? Mediocre Avg upside, no Power, low Runs for a player of his type.

I'd stick with Headley/Peavy.

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Love the analysis parrothead. Only fly in the ointment is them moving in the fences in PETCO. HR/FB rate doubled in 2nd half, so that's gotta slow down. But if he gets 550 AB's, a 15% hr/fb rate (2nd half rate was an absurd 27%), and maintains his 32% FB's , 550*.32*.15= 26.4 HR.s. He's only gotta hit HR's all year like he did in the 1st half, not the 2nd, to get 25 homers. The question is, of course, will he? It's only one a week...

15% is pretty good, especially since career wise he hadnt ever been in double digits before last season. They are moving in Right Field some but I havent seen a spray chart for him to see how many HR it would of added on last year, I remember last year I saw sprays for Pujols and Fielder on how many of their HR wouldnt of been in their new parks. Bottom line is that I think he is a good player and love him, I just think from a fantasy perspective that those numbers arent even close to sustainable or repeatable in the same context. Obviously kinda hope Im wrong.

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