Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

2ndCitySox

Mike Napoli 2013 Outlook

492 posts in this topic

Now that he's officially a Red Sox (Sock), what do people think about him this year? Should still provide elite power at C, I think. 25 HR should be reachable. He's more interesting in OBP leagues than Average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they found he had that health issue - I get the desire not to have a multi-year deal, why doesnt he get a 1 yr $13M deal (3 yr 39M was original deal), but settles for $5M on a one year gig?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they found he had that health issue - I get the desire not to have a multi-year deal, why doesnt he get a 1 yr $13M deal (3 yr 39M was original deal), but settles for $5M on a one year gig?

I'm assuming that his hip injury is pretty bad. Not sure if Napoli is someone I'd target this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they found he had that health issue - I get the desire not to have a multi-year deal, why doesnt he get a 1 yr $13M deal (3 yr 39M was original deal), but settles for $5M on a one year gig?

I'm assuming that his hip injury is pretty bad. Not sure if Napoli is someone I'd target this year.

Catcher is too deep this year for me to consider an aging injury prone C coming off a down season ... Scratched

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's an issue he's had for awhile, like several seasons, but I would need to find info to back that up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they found he had that health issue - I get the desire not to have a multi-year deal, why doesnt he get a 1 yr $13M deal (3 yr 39M was original deal), but settles for $5M on a one year gig?

I'm assuming that his hip injury is pretty bad. Not sure if Napoli is someone I'd target this year.

Catcher is too deep this year for me to consider an aging injury prone C coming off a down season ... Scratched

Is C really that deep? I suppose it is. These guys should all be usable in most formats;

Posey, McCann, Lucroy, Molina, Montero, Santana, Jesus Montero, weiters, Grandal (OBP leagues, after 50 games), Ruiz, Napoli, Rosario, Perez, mauer

So you probably have a point. Napoli has the ability to be better than all of them, at a fraction of the cost of the better ones. I think he's worth a modest gamble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they found he had that health issue - I get the desire not to have a multi-year deal, why doesnt he get a 1 yr $13M deal (3 yr 39M was original deal), but settles for $5M on a one year gig?

I'm assuming that his hip injury is pretty bad. Not sure if Napoli is someone I'd target this year.

Catcher is too deep this year for me to consider an aging injury prone C coming off a down season ... Scratched

Is C really that deep? I suppose it is. These guys should all be usable in most formats;

Posey, McCann, Lucroy, Molina, Montero, Santana, Jesus Montero, weiters, Grandal (OBP leagues, after 50 games), Ruiz, Napoli, Rosario, Perez, mauer

So you probably have a point. Napoli has the ability to be better than all of them, at a fraction of the cost of the better ones. I think he's worth a modest gamble.

He has the "ability" but if you take a look at this numbers over the last 4 years (all years with 400+ ABs) he has above average HRs and is mediocre everywhere else (discounting his 2011 2nd half when he went on an unbelievable tear as he hit .383 and had an OPS of .706). Career .259 hitter with 4 year averages of 61 Runs and 64 RBI.

There are approx 10 Catchers I would take in a heartbeat before Napoli and that's giving him a pass on the hip issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so, he signed for 34 million less than he was set to originally, and he couldn't find anyone to give him more than 5 million for 2013.

red flag much?

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Correction, nappy has the ability to be better than all but Posey.

I think it is prudent to really keep an eye on his ST. If your draft is early, it is advisable to pass unless he drops like a rock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they found he had that health issue - I get the desire not to have a multi-year deal, why doesnt he get a 1 yr $13M deal (3 yr 39M was original deal), but settles for $5M on a one year gig?

His "$5mm" deal has the following $8mm of incentives attached to it...

1) Stay on the active roster for at least 165 days,

2) Get 625 plate appearances with at least 120 days on the roster.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What was the injury that forced him to take the lesser deal? I know it was something with his hip, but will it keep him from catching at all this year? I think it is definitely a red flag that he had to take so much less money. With a lot of young catchers (Rosario, Perez, Montero, Lucroy, etc.), I think I'd rather target one of them than Napoli. As of right now, I'd be very surprised to see him stay healthy for most of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe the incentives are a lot more tiered than that, if he even gets to 450 (or so) plate appearances he'll make more than $5 million. All I care about from a fantasy perspective is 2013, and in my mind, if he was really in that bad of shape the Sox would have canceled the deal altogether.

Being able to start a catcher in fantasy who isn't actually a catcher in real life but actually the starting first baseman for the Red Sox is pretty sweet. I also don't mind the fact that he's still playing to earn what he thought he was worth over the next 3 years.

I play in an OBP league too, so I'm bullish on Napoli and hope I can buy low in my draft. I'm conservatively projecting somewhere around 60/70 and an .800 OPS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis during his pre-signing physical with the Red Sox.

It's a disease brought on by poor blood supply that can kill cells in bone tissue. Napoli doesn't have any symptoms currently and should be fine going forward, but the discovery that he has AVN is what prompted to the Red Sox to restructure his contract from a three-year, $39 million deal to a one-year, $5 million deal. Bo Jackson and Brett Favre both played through avascular necrosis. Jan 22 - 4:56 PM

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis during his pre-signing physical with the Red Sox.

It's a disease brought on by poor blood supply that can kill cells in bone tissue. Napoli doesn't have any symptoms currently and should be fine going forward, but the discovery that he has AVN is what prompted to the Red Sox to restructure his contract from a three-year, $39 million deal to a one-year, $5 million deal. Bo Jackson and Brett Favre both played through avascular necrosis. Jan 22 - 4:56 PM

Bo Jackson's playing career was cut short by AVN and required hip replacement (late '91, early '92). He came back and played part-time in '93 and '94 but was never the same player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis during his pre-signing physical with the Red Sox.

It's a disease brought on by poor blood supply that can kill cells in bone tissue. Napoli doesn't have any symptoms currently and should be fine going forward, but the discovery that he has AVN is what prompted to the Red Sox to restructure his contract from a three-year, $39 million deal to a one-year, $5 million deal. Bo Jackson and Brett Favre both played through avascular necrosis. Jan 22 - 4:56 PM

Bo Jackson's playing career was cut short by AVN and required hip replacement (late '91, early '92). He came back and played part-time in '93 and '94 but was never the same player.

Bo Jackson was also a Running Back. Napoli will be playing 1st base. One has more risk to injury to the other. He will someday have problems, but does not mean it has to come quick...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis during his pre-signing physical with the Red Sox.

It's a disease brought on by poor blood supply that can kill cells in bone tissue. Napoli doesn't have any symptoms currently and should be fine going forward, but the discovery that he has AVN is what prompted to the Red Sox to restructure his contract from a three-year, $39 million deal to a one-year, $5 million deal. Bo Jackson and Brett Favre both played through avascular necrosis. Jan 22 - 4:56 PM

Bo Jackson's playing career was cut short by AVN and required hip replacement (late '91, early '92). He came back and played part-time in '93 and '94 but was never the same player.

Some interesting tidbits via wikipedia:

Ron Wolf, assistant to the general manager of the New York Jets, had intended to take Brett Favre in the 1991 NFL draft but Favre was taken by the Falcons on the previous pick. Wolf was hired by the Green Bay Packers and traded for Favre. After the trade, Favre was diagnosed with avascular necrosis of the hip, and doctors recommended his physical be failed, which would nullify the trade. Wolf overruled them. Favre's accomplishments are well documented.

Ray Emery, NHL goaltender suffered form AV and returned to play after surgery and lengthy rehabilitation.

I also noticed one of the many proposed theories on what causes this disease is excessive Steroid use.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis during his pre-signing physical with the Red Sox.

It's a disease brought on by poor blood supply that can kill cells in bone tissue. Napoli doesn't have any symptoms currently and should be fine going forward, but the discovery that he has AVN is what prompted to the Red Sox to restructure his contract from a three-year, $39 million deal to a one-year, $5 million deal. Bo Jackson and Brett Favre both played through avascular necrosis. Jan 22 - 4:56 PM

Bo Jackson's playing career was cut short by AVN and required hip replacement (late '91, early '92). He came back and played part-time in '93 and '94 but was never the same player.

Some interesting tidbits via wikipedia:

Ron Wolf, assistant to the general manager of the New York Jets, had intended to take Brett Favre in the 1991 NFL draft but Favre was taken by the Falcons on the previous pick. Wolf was hired by the Green Bay Packers and traded for Favre. After the trade, Favre was diagnosed with avascular necrosis of the hip, and doctors recommended his physical be failed, which would nullify the trade. Wolf overruled them. Favre's accomplishments are well documented.

Ray Emery, NHL goaltender suffered form AV and returned to play after surgery and lengthy rehabilitation.

I also noticed one of the many proposed theories on what causes this disease is excessive Steroid use.

I remember that time Mike Napoli hit .320 with 30 homers...

kidding aside, as a Sawx fan can't do anything but like this deal. If he busts, not a big deal. A lot of upside here from a real life perspective. For fantasy, it's an interesting case. He will almost certainly come at a discount now, but it depends how much. If he's going off at 60 cents on the dollar at your draft, he's likely worth it for the power upside, but at 90 cent on the dollar it depends on who is there for you. I will take a look at him and try to get him $3-4 under his auction value but likely won't go much higher than that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

I'm not sure. 2011 sure seems like an aberration. Nappy's not getting any younger and has a degenerative hip. Not catching will certainly help him keep healthy but who really knows how it will affect him over 162 games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

I'm not sure. 2011 sure seems like an aberration. Nappy's not getting any younger and has a degenerative hip. Not catching will certainly help him keep healthy but who really knows how it will affect him over 162 games.

Yeah but if the hip holds up, even last year if you extrapolate his numbers over 500 at bats you're looking at 34 home runs, and you've got to figure his batting average will bounce up at least near his career mark of .260, especially with the green monster there to help it out. When you're getting this from your C spot, there's a ton of upside. Granted, he could also play 30 games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

I'm not sure. 2011 sure seems like an aberration. Nappy's not getting any younger and has a degenerative hip. Not catching will certainly help him keep healthy but who really knows how it will affect him over 162 games.

Yeah but if the hip holds up, even last year if you extrapolate his numbers over 500 at bats you're looking at 34 home runs, and you've got to figure his batting average will bounce up at least near his career mark of .260, especially with the green monster there to help it out. When you're getting this from your C spot, there's a ton of upside. Granted, he could also play 30 games.

No doubt about his power but still, he'll be facing better pitchers in the AL East and won't face his favorite team (Halos) whom he owns a 1.329 OPS against. The main issue will be whether he can stay healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

I'm not sure. 2011 sure seems like an aberration. Nappy's not getting any younger and has a degenerative hip. Not catching will certainly help him keep healthy but who really knows how it will affect him over 162 games.

Yeah but if the hip holds up, even last year if you extrapolate his numbers over 500 at bats you're looking at 34 home runs, and you've got to figure his batting average will bounce up at least near his career mark of .260, especially with the green monster there to help it out. When you're getting this from your C spot, there's a ton of upside. Granted, he could also play 30 games.

No doubt about his power but still, he'll be facing better pitchers in the AL East and won't face his favorite team (Halos) whom he owns a 1.329 OPS against. The main issue will be whether he can stay healthy.

The pitching isn't really that much better. The Orioles have a poverty rotation and the Yankees aren't that great. The Rays are amazing and the Jays will be good, but it's not like the Athletics and Mariners have bad rotations. Take into account ballparks, and I'd say he's going to a better situation to hit in division-wise. And the Angels stat is just a small sample size fluke. By that logic, he has a career 1.107 OPS in Fenway, so grab him in the first round.

Health is the big thing, but since he won't be catching, I think it's more likely than not that he'll stay healthy enough for 500 at bats. And it may help his offense even more since his joints will get a lot of extra rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

I'm not sure. 2011 sure seems like an aberration. Nappy's not getting any younger and has a degenerative hip. Not catching will certainly help him keep healthy but who really knows how it will affect him over 162 games.

Yeah but if the hip holds up, even last year if you extrapolate his numbers over 500 at bats you're looking at 34 home runs, and you've got to figure his batting average will bounce up at least near his career mark of .260, especially with the green monster there to help it out. When you're getting this from your C spot, there's a ton of upside. Granted, he could also play 30 games.

No doubt about his power but still, he'll be facing better pitchers in the AL East and won't face his favorite team (Halos) whom he owns a 1.329 OPS against. The main issue will be whether he can stay healthy.

The pitching isn't really that much better. The Orioles have a poverty rotation and the Yankees aren't that great. The Rays are amazing and the Jays will be good, but it's not like the Athletics and Mariners have bad rotations. Take into account ballparks, and I'd say he's going to a better situation to hit in division-wise. And the Angels stat is just a small sample size fluke. By that logic, he has a career 1.107 OPS in Fenway, so grab him in the first round.

Health is the big thing, but since he won't be catching, I think it's more likely than not that he'll stay healthy enough for 500 at bats. And it may help his offense even more since his joints will get a lot of extra rest.

I think that the quality and the depth of pitching in the AL East is better. Texas is the best hitters park especially for power and the lineup is arguably the best in baseball so I don't really understand how his environment has improved.

You can call it a small size fluke but Napoli absolutely OWNS the Halos. He will miss facing them for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Napoli starting at 1B this season, does this drastically increase his value? Seeing as how most catchers average somewhere around 350 AB's, could we see Napoli reach 500+ AB's (assuming he stays healthy)? Those extra AB's could significantly increase his value over many mid-tier catchers.

I'm not sure. 2011 sure seems like an aberration. Nappy's not getting any younger and has a degenerative hip. Not catching will certainly help him keep healthy but who really knows how it will affect him over 162 games.

Yeah but if the hip holds up, even last year if you extrapolate his numbers over 500 at bats you're looking at 34 home runs, and you've got to figure his batting average will bounce up at least near his career mark of .260, especially with the green monster there to help it out. When you're getting this from your C spot, there's a ton of upside. Granted, he could also play 30 games.

No doubt about his power but still, he'll be facing better pitchers in the AL East and won't face his favorite team (Halos) whom he owns a 1.329 OPS against. The main issue will be whether he can stay healthy.

The pitching isn't really that much better. The Orioles have a poverty rotation and the Yankees aren't that great. The Rays are amazing and the Jays will be good, but it's not like the Athletics and Mariners have bad rotations. Take into account ballparks, and I'd say he's going to a better situation to hit in division-wise. And the Angels stat is just a small sample size fluke. By that logic, he has a career 1.107 OPS in Fenway, so grab him in the first round.

Health is the big thing, but since he won't be catching, I think it's more likely than not that he'll stay healthy enough for 500 at bats. And it may help his offense even more since his joints will get a lot of extra rest.

I think that the quality and the depth of pitching in the AL East is better. Texas is the best hitters park especially for power and the lineup is arguably the best in baseball so I don't really understand how his environment has improved.

You can call it a small size fluke but Napoli absolutely OWNS the Halos. He will miss facing them for sure.

Napoli absolutely OWNS when hitting at Fenway then. And now he gets to do it half the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.