Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

dzemens

Michael Bourn 2013 Outlook

131 posts in this topic

So, he wants a 5 year deal and clearly no one is willing to go that high in years or likely compensation, but rather than accept the reality of the market (youre only worth what someone is willing to pay) he and Boras continue to play out a string that doesnt exist. At some point Bourn has to accept reality here, part of that might be finding a new agent that will stop whispering such sweet nothings in his ear about value that doesnt exist.

Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that free agent outfielder Michael Bourn wants a five-year contract.

Puma says the Mets "aren't going there," and neither is any other major league team. Bourn, because he's tied to draft pick compensation, is going to have to lower his asking price to attract suitors. The 30-year-old outfielder batted .274/.348/.391 with nine homers, 57 RBI and 42 stolen bases in 155 games last season for the Braves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the new rules about giving up a draft pick, it's really hurt his value. So many teams have filled their CF needs this offseason, that there aren't many places left for Bourn to sign. Boras needs to realize that Bourn isn't going to get big money anymore this offseason. He's better off taking a one year deal somewhere and trying the market again next offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the new rules about giving up a draft pick, it's really hurt his value. So many teams have filled their CF needs this offseason, that there aren't many places left for Bourn to sign. Boras needs to realize that Bourn isn't going to get big money anymore this offseason. He's better off taking a one year deal somewhere and trying the market again next offseason.

Does a team have to give up a pick on a one year deal? If so Id imagine that hurts the one year deal chances to as the team would be giving up a pick for a rental.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His down year last year is hurting him.

Well he was actually awesome for a large portion of the year then fell off a cliff. Owning him end of last year was brutal, he was so good early on, it was hard to take him out of your lineup. Then he proceeded to get 1 hit in the final 6 weeks or there about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His down year last year is hurting him.

Well he was actually awesome for a large portion of the year then fell off a cliff. Owning him end of last year was brutal, he was so good early on, it was hard to take him out of your lineup. Then he proceeded to get 1 hit in the final 6 weeks or there about.

Down second half.

He's a great fantasy guy to have, but I think teams have a hard time giving a ton of money to a guy who doesn't produce much past SB and R. His OBP isn't much better than a guy like Coco Crisp. If he's hitting .260-.270 he's not an impact help because he doesn't get on base enough.

That said...The guy has 70 SB speed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know its a common tactic with long term deals to backload the end of contracts with the most money so team have payroll flexibility. But in the case of Bourn with so much of his value tied to his legs I'd offer a frontloaded deal where he is most of his contract value the first 3 years. That way it would give the team who signs him for a 4-5 year deal the ability to move an asset that would be impossible to move if he is making a base 14 million annually. From the players perspective he knows this is is his last big money deal and looking for the most security and money. The reality is that base thieves like him don't usually age well into their 30's. Some do can still get 25-30 steals but at that point he is more like a 7 million a year player.

The Mets had interest I know but were unwilling to give up the pick unless MLB made a special exception to only give up a 2nd round pick. Obviously such an action would of opened up a huge can of worms with that particular rule. I feel bad for both him and Lohse. Because you have two guys who have earned a nice payday but are tied to an agent who only cares about his cut and not the player. Any rational person would realize that Bourn should only be getting a 3 year deal and Lohse a 2 year deal. Not 5 years for either.

The most intriguing spot he could land are with the Rays. Given how much Madden loves to run he could have a huge 60+ steal season with them. The only other teams I have read where there is interest or a fit are the Ranger and Blue Jays. Most teams have set their payrolls for the season so I am not sure many markets exist where he is going to get the money Boras and Bourn wants. Something needs to give. ST is only a few weeks off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with Stickfig - he was actually pretty awful as a leadoff batter last year. It seemed obvious he was trying to show what a power hitter he was in a contract year swinging for the fences on every pitch on his way to a 9 HR season. That's cost him, as no one is going to look at him as anything more than a career leadoff hitter. In order to use his speed he needs to make contact. His approach last year was as misinformed as his approach now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with Stickfig - he was actually pretty awful as a leadoff batter last year. It seemed obvious he was trying to show what a power hitter he was in a contract year swinging for the fences on every pitch on his way to a 9 HR season. That's cost him, as no one is going to look at him as anything more than a career leadoff hitter. In order to use his speed he needs to make contact. His approach last year was as misinformed as his approach now.

He wasn't awful, he just had a bad second half. He was amazing during the first half. There was a stretch where he led off the game with a hit for at least 2 weeks straight. He hit 7 of his 9 homers in the first half, and complemented it with a .311 average. Wasn't swinging for the fences. He just got cold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

after the allstar break if he didnt slump he might have a contract. same with ethier......he got paid the first half. the dodgers were dumb to pay a guy who is know for a good first half and stink the second.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So as the list of potential suitors dwindles, what are his realistic remaining landing spots?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So as the list of potential suitors dwindles, what are his realistic remaining landing spots?

No where unless he gets realistic with his demands. Hes not getting a 5 year contract anywhere, the market has set his value and its way lower than he thinks it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So as the list of potential suitors dwindles, what are his realistic remaining landing spots?

After the "Boras waiting period" is over the Mets might revisit a potential deal, possibly the Mariners according to some.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So as the list of potential suitors dwindles, what are his realistic remaining landing spots?

After the "Boras waiting period" is over the Mets might revisit a potential deal, possibly the Mariners according to some.

I just can't see them doing it while giving up the pick. Mets have the 11 and Mariners have th 12 I believe. If the mets could get out of giving up that pick they should go for him, but they wouldn't be able to know until after they made a deal. I still think Texas will sign him especially when Bourn has to lower his demands. They usually do well in the draft, but Bourn would be a good fit for their OF. Bourn would be a good lead off man for them and they could move Kinsler back in the line up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I think its pretty black and white right now. The contenders and good fantasy landing spots for Bourn will only do a 3 year deal. The teams who are desperate or extra cash to burn like the Mets and Mariners are the only candidates to meet his outrageous demands and overpay. Dodgers are always a darkhorse to throw money at him but I don't think they will unless they were to trade Ethier.

So as fantasy investors we need to hope he lowers his demands and put himself in a position to be attractive to the Rangers, Jays and Rays. Otherwise its likely going to be the Mets or M's which would be lukewarm places. I know the Mariners are very concerned with Bourn being Figgins 2.0 so I don't think they will do the 5 year deal. Its likely just the Mets that would. Anyway I think in a couple weeks just before ST starts we'll read him accepting a 3 year deal somewhere for 16-17 million with a team option for a 4th year possibly.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe Mariners consider to sign him.Their management should slow down,last thing they need is to overpay Bourn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indians to sign Michael Bourn. 4 year 48 million contract with a vesting option for 5th year if Bourn reaches 550PA in his 4th year.

Didnt see this happening...

http://www.mlbtrader..._medium=twitter

Sign Bourn and Swisher to go along with Kipnis, Santana, etc, trade Choo, get young pitching. Things might, might get interesting in Cleveland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does Bourn's value change at all with this move? I don't think it really changes at all. Maybe he runs a little more under Terry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indians to sign Michael Bourn. 4 year 48 million contract with a vesting option for 5th year if Bourn reaches 550PA in his 4th year.

Didnt see this happening...

http://www.mlbtrader..._medium=twitter

Sign Bourn and Swisher to go along with Kipnis, Santana, etc, trade Choo, get young pitching. Things might, might get interesting in Cleveland.

Pitching is still bleak this year, but the offense should be feared, with or without a power hitter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Bourn owner, highly disappointed by this news. Would've really liked him in Texas. To the above comment, I don't think anyone in the AL is going to 'fear' the Indians' lineup.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Bourn owner, highly disappointed by this news. Would've really liked him in Texas. To the above comment, I don't think anyone in the AL is going to 'fear' the Indians' lineup.

Santana, Stubbs, Brantley, a** cab, Kipnis, bourn, Reynolds, swisher, and I guess Chinsenhall at 3b?

Yeah....it's not really scary, but the lineup has some potential.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Bourn owner, highly disappointed by this news. Would've really liked him in Texas. To the above comment, I don't think anyone in the AL is going to 'fear' the Indians' lineup.

Could have been much worse. Could have gone to the Mets.

He'll have some solid hitters hitting behind him. Kipnis, Cabrera, Swisher, Santana, and Brantley are all competent hitters. Bourn's outlook is fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry guys, didn't mean to bring 'negative' tones to the thread. I agree the outlook is fine, but that's pretty much it. He really would've looked much better fantasy wise with the Rangers (but agree better than the Mets).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What does this lineup look like? Batting order I mean.

CF Bourn - L

2B Kipnis - L

SS Cabrera - S

1B Swisher - S

C Santana - S

DH Reynolds - R

LF Brantley - L

3B Chisenhall - L

RF Stubbs - R

As an Indians fan that is the most likely scenario with Mike Aviles as utility man at 2B, 3B and SS, maybe occasionally getting time in the corner OF spots. Santana will play some 1B and Swisher will play some RF too, the team is very flexible defensively.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites