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Anthony Rizzo 2013 Outlook

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I'm not sure what everyone's thoughts on Rizzo are but I like his skill set. I'm trying to temper my expectations, but is a .285-27-100-5 season aiming too high?

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I'm not sure what everyone's thoughts on Rizzo are but I like his skill set. I'm trying to temper my expectations, but is a .285-27-100-5 season aiming too high?

I think all of those numbers are doable for Rizzo with the exception of the RBI at 100. I just don't see it with the current Cubbies lineup.

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I'm not sure what everyone's thoughts on Rizzo are but I like his skill set. I'm trying to temper my expectations, but is a .285-27-100-5 season aiming too high?

I think all of those numbers are doable for Rizzo with the exception of the RBI at 100. I just don't see it with the current Cubbies lineup.

I'm surprised to see there really isn't much hype on him yet. He basically was just as big of a prospect as Hosmer coming in (maybe not as big) and he had a similar rookie year except with 200 less at bats. Hosmer was getting drafted in the fourth and fifth round last year, I haven't really seen where Rizzo is going but the hype still has been low on him.

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A few things(negative) standout when thinking about Anthony Rizzo this year. He struggles vs left handed pitching(.208 AVG). So far he is only hitting .245(136 games) Plus do you believe in the sophomore slump? I would have to you are being to optimistic for AVG & RBI's in 2013.

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I'm not sure what everyone's thoughts on Rizzo are but I like his skill set. I'm trying to temper my expectations, but is a .285-27-100-5 season aiming too high?

I would say more homers, less average, maybe 90-95 RBI

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How many times do you reckon Eric Hosmer's name will be brought up when discussing Rizzo?

Quite a bit, but in all honesty (and maybe this is just one man's opinion), but Rizzo has A LOT more power than Hosmer.

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Rizzo was a great pickup by the Cubs, but I don't want him this season. I think there will be a lot of struggles, especially against lefties. Something like 70-27-85-.260.

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Rizzo was a great pickup by the Cubs, but I don't want him this season. I think there will be a lot of struggles, especially against lefties. Something like 70-27-85-.260.

That's really not bad considering his Adp currently is 74 compared to goldschmidt who is 23. Only thing Goldie really will prob do more this year is steal and maybe have a slightly better average and rbis

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ESPN has him ranked at 110, and I remember last year Hosmer was around 50. I am kind of shocked there is not similar hype to Rizzo as there was to Hosmer last year.

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May be a case of overcorrection of the market. After Hosmer burned so many guys last year, they're careful to not make the same mistake with Rizzo, even though Hosmer's case shouldn't affect Rizzo - they're two different players.

I'd be more concerned about the LHP struggles, weak lineup, and second year hurdles many players face. That being said, he's a talented player, and for the cost you could certainly find a lot worse gambles...

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How many times do you reckon Eric Hosmer's name will be brought up when discussing Rizzo?

Quite a bit, but in all honesty (and maybe this is just one man's opinion), but Rizzo has A LOT more power than Hosmer.

Not really....Hosmer has plenty in the tank and their power potential is comparable.

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Well Minors+MLB last season he hit 38 homers. Even though 23 were in pcl, it was in 70 games. In 2010 and 2011 in minors for padres he hit 25 and 26 homers respectively.(100 rbi and 101 rbi.) The kid looks solid as long as he doesn't have the deemed sophomore slump. Im going to buy low on him or maybe push him a few rounds back in the draft just because of the risk. But hey, no risk no reward.

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I really really dislike teixiera, but rizzo's adp is pretty much exactly the same as big tex, and in redrafts it would be hard to take the plunge on rizzo. I know it's a classic floor vs ceiling debate, but tex could have a pretty bad season and still have a pretty good season because of his hitting in prime position in a decent lineup vs prime position in a horrific lineup.

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I'm not sure what everyone's thoughts on Rizzo are but I like his skill set. I'm trying to temper my expectations, but is a .285-27-100-5 season aiming too high?

I think all of those numbers are doable for Rizzo with the exception of the RBI at 100. I just don't see it with the current Cubbies lineup.

I would generally agree, and there's a good chance you are right, but the difference is this lineup IS better than last year's (by virtue of Rizzo's presence from day #1 and hopefully year-round alone), and you have Alfonso Soriano at 3rd in the NL in RBI (behind Headley and Braun) with 108 total. On that morbid Cubs team in a horrible lineup, without Rizzo the entire time too, remember...

I like Rizzo a lot this year, and the Cubs' lineup is better, even if not by a huge margin. He's a guy I am hoping I can get pretty cheap. I am a Cubs fan and optimistic about Rizzo-- I think he will be a star... but a lot depends on his RBI totals, I will agree there. However, if Soriano can be in the top-3 last year at 35 or 36 or whatever and he didn't even really do a thing until May 16th... I'm not afraid to go for Rizzo.

I just hope he doesn't have a Hosmer-like sophomore season.

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I'm not sure what everyone's thoughts on Rizzo are but I like his skill set. I'm trying to temper my expectations, but is a .285-27-100-5 season aiming too high?

I think all of those numbers are doable for Rizzo with the exception of the RBI at 100. I just don't see it with the current Cubbies lineup.

I would generally agree, and there's a good chance you are right, but the difference is this lineup IS better than last year's (by virtue of Rizzo's presence from day #1 and hopefully year-round alone), and you have Alfonso Soriano at 3rd in the NL in RBI (behind Headley and Braun) with 108 total. On that morbid Cubs team in a horrible lineup, without Rizzo the entire time too, remember...

I like Rizzo a lot this year, and the Cubs' lineup is better, even if not by a huge margin. He's a guy I am hoping I can get pretty cheap. I am a Cubs fan and optimistic about Rizzo-- I think he will be a star... but a lot depends on his RBI totals, I will agree there. However, if Soriano can be in the top-3 last year at 35 or 36 or whatever and he didn't even really do a thing until May 16th... I'm not afraid to go for Rizzo.

I just hope he doesn't have a Hosmer-like sophomore season.

I would like to see where hosmers and rizzos adp are come draft day. I think the big fear for rizzo is for him to have that hosmer like soph slump yet when draft day comes I think Hosmer will be going ahead of him. Kind of weird to me

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I would want Rizzo before Hosmer, because I do agree that he possesses more power potential, and I really don't think the Cubs' lineup (or team) will be any worse than the Royals. Also, Royal prospects tend to take longer to develop-- they just do! Look at recent history... position players or pitchers. Greinke took 4 years before he really broke out. They seem to always have young players questioning their commitment (i.e. Danny Duffy, if I remember right, retired and then came back a few months later or something?), and then there's the complete duds in the guys like Hochevar but I am not even surprised by that much. But look at some of the position players they have groomed... Hosmer... nice first year, total sophomore slump, and I would honestly be more down on a guy coming off of a bad year than a guy like Rizzo who is coming off of a good year. I'd take my chance Hosmer is the exception. Other players, though. Look at Moose. He still hasn't done anything worthy, really... I mean, he was one of the top prospects in the game for how long? And he's still young, don't get me wrong, but he's moving very slowly. Showed good pop last year but he's where a lot of people probably expected him, or at least those holding him in dynasty leagues and stuff.

Other examples: Alex Gordon, who took until what.. age 26 and a full move to left field to fulfill his potential? He has been a nice recovery project for them, I must say. Butler has finally seemed to learn how to use his weight to power the ball as well and seems to have found his game. But it took him quite awhile to really get there, or at least it seems that way to me....and it took moving him to DH as well for him to finally start hitting. Says something.... I dunno what.... but something. Most guys don't like being a DH that early in their careers. I dunno. Edgar was great, Butler could be great there too- but he's real young for having slid to DH already, although I obviously get it. What confuses me is how he hit much better once he finally slotted into the DH spot. Maybe it's a coincidence. Still, it took him awhile...

That's all I'm saying really. The Royals' prospects seem to take forever to develop- have commitment issues, weight problems, and just don't pan out like they really should, or at least right away. Gordon took forever, Moose seems to be taking forever (if he was drafted out of HS, that may be why it seems like forever... I don't recall, though I know he's 23 or 24 now, so if it was a HS pick then 6-7 years seems like a long time to develop I guess).

I think Rizzo will put up better numbers. Projections have him looking prettier than Hosmer. I dunno why anyone would want Hosmer that much more than Rizzo. There's comparable for sure, but I think Hosmer is in a lineup that is just as bad or mediocre to the Cubs' own.

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I would want Rizzo before Hosmer, because I do agree that he possesses more power potential, and I really don't think the Cubs' lineup (or team) will be any worse than the Royals. Also, Royal prospects tend to take longer to develop-- they just do! Look at recent history... position players or pitchers. Greinke took 4 years before he really broke out. They seem to always have young players questioning their commitment (i.e. Danny Duffy, if I remember right, retired and then came back a few months later or something?), and then there's the complete duds in the guys like Hochevar but I am not even surprised by that much. But look at some of the position players they have groomed... Hosmer... nice first year, total sophomore slump, and I would honestly be more down on a guy coming off of a bad year than a guy like Rizzo who is coming off of a good year. I'd take my chance Hosmer is the exception. Other players, though. Look at Moose. He still hasn't done anything worthy, really... I mean, he was one of the top prospects in the game for how long? And he's still young, don't get me wrong, but he's moving very slowly. Showed good pop last year but he's where a lot of people probably expected him, or at least those holding him in dynasty leagues and stuff.

Other examples: Alex Gordon, who took until what.. age 26 and a full move to left field to fulfill his potential? He has been a nice recovery project for them, I must say. Butler has finally seemed to learn how to use his weight to power the ball as well and seems to have found his game. But it took him quite awhile to really get there, or at least it seems that way to me....and it took moving him to DH as well for him to finally start hitting. Says something.... I dunno what.... but something. Most guys don't like being a DH that early in their careers. I dunno. Edgar was great, Butler could be great there too- but he's real young for having slid to DH already, although I obviously get it. What confuses me is how he hit much better once he finally slotted into the DH spot. Maybe it's a coincidence. Still, it took him awhile...

That's all I'm saying really. The Royals' prospects seem to take forever to develop- have commitment issues, weight problems, and just don't pan out like they really should, or at least right away. Gordon took forever, Moose seems to be taking forever (if he was drafted out of HS, that may be why it seems like forever... I don't recall, though I know he's 23 or 24 now, so if it was a HS pick then 6-7 years seems like a long time to develop I guess).

I think Rizzo will put up better numbers. Projections have him looking prettier than Hosmer. I dunno why anyone would want Hosmer that much more than Rizzo. There's comparable for sure, but I think Hosmer is in a lineup that is just as bad or mediocre to the Cubs' own.

Because even if Hosmer struggles again, he can easily steal 15-20 bases. I think Hosmer has a higher ceiling for that reason.

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I'd take either one at the right price. In my main league, however, we don't have CI or even IF slots (much to my chagrin), which means I'm loaded up at 1B and Util with Butler and Goldschmidt.

Still believe in Rizzo's talent, and would consider him less risky than Hosmer, but they're both valuable in the right context. Honestly would anyone be shocked if Hosmer put up the type of season this year that everyone was expecting last year?

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I looked and looked and didn't see a Rizzo thread, so What do yall think about Rizzo this year? Does he fulfill his hype? or fall flat?

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I think he will disappoint. Should hit 25 homers but RBI and AVG won't help you out.

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Lots of key components not being discussed here.

He changed his swing, resulting in a surge in contact% last year. The average won't drop as long as he keeps that skill. Given that he only had a .310 BABIP last year with a 24.4% linedrive rate, he very easily could and should have hit .300 last season. There is no reason to expect him to hit below .260 if you trust his vastly improved approach. He just isn't the same hitter that he was. You can throw his minor league numbers out. He is a different guy now with a different swing.

STOP comparing him to Hosmer. One guy changed his swing and was knocking linedrives all over the place last season. The other one can't lay off the pitch on the corner to keep from rolling it over to second base. They aren't the same players right now. Just stop it. Until Hosmer starts driving that ball the other way or laying off it, pitchers are going to keep going there and it killed him last year. What one player does is irrelevant to what to expect from another player.

Any player that hits in the 3/4 hole gets a ton of RBI chances. Even Bengie Molina racked up 95 RBI on a pathetic Giants club in 2008. Rizzo will be a very friendly stadium and will have Starlin Castro on base a lot in front of him. 95-100 RBI is not a stretch.

Given where he is going in drafts, I really like this guy this season after breaking down his numbers. There were no unreasonable BABIP's or spikes in HR/FB% that weren't sustainable. He profiles as a guy that should back up last season very well with how high his contact% and linedrive% was and how steady he was at both levels for the whole season.

I get that people show trepidation towards sophomores, but not every sophomore falls into that dreaded trap. Also, guys that struggled as much as he did in his first taste of the bigs tend to know that they must come prepared every season or risk embarrassment. He went through those struggles and it probably led to his swing change and made him better for it. He won't take anything for granted.

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