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FouLLine

Norichika Aoki 2013 Outlook

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Norichika Aoki was the 30 year old rookie out of Japan. He had a solid season last year hitting .288 with 10 HRs and 30 SBs while proving to be a good glove in the outfield.

What really impressed me was how good Aoki got to close out the season. In his last 35 games he put up some impressive numbers.

.319 / .384 / .525 / .909 with 28 R, 19 RBI, 4 HR, and 11 SB. Over 150 games that would be a 17 HR 47 SB pace.

He seems to be going fairly late in drafts so he can be had a darn good value.

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yeah could be kind of a cheaper Pagan. or a poor man's 2008-2011 Victorino. I like players like this. he should stick in the first 2 spots if he hits, especially with Hart out awhile.

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this dude was great if you had a crappy spot to fill on your roster. always easier to get OFs on waiver wire then any other offensive position.

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this dude was great if you had a crappy spot to fill on your roster. always easier to get OFs on waiver wire then any other offensive position.

definitely agree. especially ones with solid SB contributions.

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I don't see why we can not get a repeat performance of last year with the HR's, AVG & SB's. With the opportunity of him giving us a bit more across all three of those catagories in 2013.

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Stinking it up in spring. Now is the time to buy low

I haven't been following him, but that's great news. Aoki is an awesome late round pick.

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Don't know if you can buy low on him. Spring training is just spring training and Yahoo changed his O-Ranking from 150 up to 132 so he is rising in the rankings, not falling. He has moved ahead of the guy he is most compared to, Angel Pagan, at this point.

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Don't know if you can buy low on him. Spring training is just spring training and Yahoo changed his O-Ranking from 150 up to 132 so he is rising in the rankings, not falling. He has moved ahead of the guy he is most compared to, Angel Pagan, at this point.

I think ESPN leagues are the only league he is really low right now, but I'm still not really a fan of him. I don't think he hits 10 homers again because of his very high GB%.

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Don't know if you can buy low on him. Spring training is just spring training and Yahoo changed his O-Ranking from 150 up to 132 so he is rising in the rankings, not falling. He has moved ahead of the guy he is most compared to, Angel Pagan, at this point.

Exactly I had Aoki on my draft list the other night and when it got to the spot where I was looking to jump I saw Pagan still avail. I passed on A-OK for the seemingly safer Pagan. He's not really a sleeper anymore.

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Don't know if you can buy low on him. Spring training is just spring training and Yahoo changed his O-Ranking from 150 up to 132 so he is rising in the rankings, not falling. He has moved ahead of the guy he is most compared to, Angel Pagan, at this point.

Exactly I had Aoki on my draft list the other night and when it got to the spot where I was looking to jump I saw Pagan still avail. I passed on A-OK for the seemingly safer Pagan. He's not really a sleeper anymore.

he went undrafted in my 12 team 23 round h2h roto draft. not a bad pick up, just not sure what his numbers project to be. 670.71

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Don't know if you can buy low on him. Spring training is just spring training and Yahoo changed his O-Ranking from 150 up to 132 so he is rising in the rankings, not falling. He has moved ahead of the guy he is most compared to, Angel Pagan, at this point.

Exactly I had Aoki on my draft list the other night and when it got to the spot where I was looking to jump I saw Pagan still avail. I passed on A-OK for the seemingly safer Pagan. He's not really a sleeper anymore.

he went undrafted in my 12 team 23 round h2h roto draft. not a bad pick up, just not sure what his numbers project to be. 670.71

Tough league

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Don't know if you can buy low on him. Spring training is just spring training and Yahoo changed his O-Ranking from 150 up to 132 so he is rising in the rankings, not falling. He has moved ahead of the guy he is most compared to, Angel Pagan, at this point.

Exactly I had Aoki on my draft list the other night and when it got to the spot where I was looking to jump I saw Pagan still avail. I passed on A-OK for the seemingly safer Pagan. He's not really a sleeper anymore.

he went undrafted in my 12 team 23 round h2h roto draft. not a bad pick up, just not sure what his numbers project to be. 670.71

Tough league

yea its a redraft league in which everyone went prospect crazy at the end. I got Teheran in the last round!

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I would gladly trade Aoki for Pagan, but as I got Aoki in the 16th and Pagan went in the 11th, I feel like I got decent value.

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Aoki will start off in the leadoff spot. Where will he end up when Hart returns?

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Aoki will start off in the leadoff spot. Where will he end up when Hart returns?

Still lead off. Aoki is locked in to 1 or 2 unless he slumps hard.

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I have really talked myself into being bullish on this character. He reminds me a lot of one of these Pagan, Dexter Fowler types. With Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Weeks and even Lucroy behind him he should thrive in the leadoff spot. I see a floor of .275-90runs-13 Hr-50 rbis-25 steals with a ceiling of .285-100runs-18hrs-60rbis-40 steals. He could be a cheaper version of Shin Soo-Choo should he reach his peak/ceiling. Thoughts?

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I have really talked myself into being bullish on this character. He reminds me a lot of one of these Pagan, Dexter Fowler types. With Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Weeks and even Lucroy behind him he should thrive in the leadoff spot. I see a floor of .275-90runs-13 Hr-50 rbis-25 steals with a ceiling of .285-100runs-18hrs-60rbis-40 steals. He could be a cheaper version of Shin Soo-Choo should he reach his peak/ceiling. Thoughts?

I took him at pick 130 in a 5 OF league, ahead of guys like Fowler and Pagan so I must agree with that floor/ceiling projection. Hes got some great bats behind and if/when Hart gets healthy that only improves.

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I have really talked myself into being bullish on this character. He reminds me a lot of one of these Pagan, Dexter Fowler types. With Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Weeks and even Lucroy behind him he should thrive in the leadoff spot. I see a floor of .275-90runs-13 Hr-50 rbis-25 steals with a ceiling of .285-100runs-18hrs-60rbis-40 steals. He could be a cheaper version of Shin Soo-Choo should he reach his peak/ceiling. Thoughts?

I think every stat is accurate besides the power. Even as a ceiling I just don't see him hitting 18 homers. I also think his floor is closer to 7 homers. It's just my opinion but his batted ball profile does not project out a ten+ homer type of guy. He really is more of a ground ball. I actually think his average could rise because his BABIP should be fairly high due to his GB and his speed.

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You are right. I just dived a bit more in the numbers and I doubt he ever hits more than 15 hrs. Good call and insight....

I think every stat is accurate besides the power. Even as a ceiling I just don't see him hitting 18 homers. I also think his floor is closer to 7 homers. It's just my opinion but his batted ball profile does not project out a ten+ homer type of guy. He really is more of a ground ball. I actually think his average could rise because his BABIP should be fairly high due to his GB and his speed.

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I am hoping for a bit more pop as well. Big difference in a guy that hits 5-10 homers and a guy that hits 11-20. If he can sneak his home run total up to 15 you have a really valuable OF.

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I am hoping for a bit more pop as well. Big difference in a guy that hits 5-10 homers and a guy that hits 11-20. If he can sneak his home run total up to 15 you have a really valuable OF.

I think he can still be valuable though even without ten plus homers (kind of similar to Ichiro a few years ago). I think he will hit over .300 this year. He led the league in Infield Hits last year and had a BABIP of .300 which actually isn't that great for a player with speed and that hits the ball on the ground that much. If he can improve that a little I think we are looking at a .300 hitter with a good amount of runs (assuming Braun is not suspended) and 30-40 steals.

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I am hoping year 2 in the league will improve his line drive rate a bit, and he will get it in the air a bit more. It wouldn't take much for him to leap into OF3 territory.

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