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LyondellBasell

Henderson Alvarez 2013 Outlook

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Going to the NL from the AL East. He'll be 23 in April.

Sabermetrics guys hate him and fantasy owners have had no use for him b/c he never strikes people out. 3.8 k/9 is downright humiliating.

But when you consider how bad that is, it's an achievement he even stayed in the majors and logged 187 innings in the AL.

The reason I still have hope for him is that his stuff is filthy. His fastball is mid-90s and has crazy life down in the zone. The issue is his slider. If he can get that over for strikes, we're looking at something special. I still believe.

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I think he's worth a late, late pick in mixed 14-team or NL-only 10-12 team leagues... or something of a $1 gamble.

I don't think he will strike out many more batters out of nowhere next season, if going from AL East to NL East. His HR rate should improve on behalf of pitching half of his games in Miami vs. Toronto alone (not to mention not facing Boston, New York, Tampa, and Baltimore... who is the only team that had he really had much success versus at all actually).

Personally, in the one league I know I will be in for sure, he is waiver fodder in my eyes and unless he gets hot and can maintain it, I wouldn't hold him beyond a start (and he if gets hot out of the start, someone will swoop him up if he hasn't been drafted for sure, anyway). As of now, he's not on my list of players I won't want to draft unless I'm desperate for a pitcher, and I mean very desperate. My main league is 14-teams and mixed leagues. 100$ FAAB and a $200-$260 draft day budget for 25 players and 2 DL slots. I forget which we are going with this year in the budget... somewhere from $200-$260 I think. It is very competitive and fun to play in, but even as savvy as (most) of the GMs in the league who are mainstays can be, I don't think Alverez will be someone I would draft. Perhaps a nice stream vs. some of the bottom feeder teams, or in starts in stadiums like Petco maybe... but until he proves he can strike people out with this nasty stuff everyone is talking about that he hasn't been able to make anything of, he is no more than Daniel Cabrera... a Daniel Cabrera that can throw strikes, that is.

And on the Marlins, he won't win many games either. Less chance to compile even 10 wins than he would have had bouncing up and down from AAA or between the pen with a team like TOR that should score a lot and be playing catchup.... MIA is going to be bad. There's an article, if I can find it.. one sec..

Here it is. It mentions some of what I brought up but goes into better detail.anyway, here it is:

http://www.fangraphs...varez-to-shine/

Again, if that isn't allowed, please just edit the link out... thanks. Also, title is a bit misleading.

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I remember watching this guy in a couple starts in person last year, and from what I see, he has some filthy stuff but has yet to learn how to "pitch". Has a great heater with great movement late and down in the zone. His downfall is that more often it seems like once he gets in a punch out situation, he either throws an absolute meatball right down the pipe, or nibbles. If he can work on that, he could return some decent value in deeper leagues.

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look who got 7ks in 5 innings today! anyone see him this spring? is the breaking ball improved?

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Has done fairly decent the last few starts and has gone deep into games. Doesn't get as many K's as I would prefer, but still ok. You all think he keeps this up the rest of the way? Personally, I think he may be pitching a tad over his head due to pitching in Marlins park, but who knows. Any other thoughts?

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Looks like he'll miss the two ATL series. May be a ROS sleeper pick...

Dodgers thursday and @Nationals next week. If all holds static, he should be good through September, until the final series of the year where he is slated to face the Tigers.

Otherwise, he should line up against the Cubs, Phillies twice consecutively, Mets, and a game vs. the Nationals thrown in there. There are 4 positive matchups to keep an eye on.

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@Washington tomorrow, much better numbers on the road this season (3.18, 1.01); small sample size of course but shows he's not purely a product of Marlin Park.

Badly need ERA and WHIP. Anyone else feeling a spot-start?

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@Washington tomorrow, much better numbers on the road this season (3.18, 1.01); small sample size of course but shows he's not purely a product of Marlin Park.

Badly need ERA and WHIP. Anyone else feeling a spot-start?

Washington is 9-1 over their last ten games, there's no one hotter in MLB. Strasburg is pitching for the Nats as well. I don't think it's worth the risk if you're in a tight race.

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@Washington tomorrow, much better numbers on the road this season (3.18, 1.01); small sample size of course but shows he's not purely a product of Marlin Park.

Badly need ERA and WHIP. Anyone else feeling a spot-start?

Washington is 9-1 over their last ten games, there's no one hotter in MLB. Strasburg is pitching for the Nats as well. I don't think it's worth the risk if you're in a tight race.

Don't need a W so the opposing pitcher couldn't matter less to me. I don't think anyone rosters Alvarez (or any Marlins pitcher) expecting a win.

That said, the total for the game is 7 and I'm in desperate need of some clean innings so I'm giving him a chance. The fact that I have no other pitchers going tomorrow is a huge factor but fingers crossed, he's the best stream available in a deep league.

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never again... never again... never again

That was such a stupid stream. Forced it. Could've definitely been worse as he worked out of some jams but that's a WHIP killer for tight races

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never again... never again... never again

That was such a stupid stream. Forced it. Could've definitely been worse as he worked out of some jams but that's a WHIP killer for tight races

More great advice from PPolanco.

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OK I know its the last day of the year.....but this guy just threw a no-hitter. If you spot started this guy...congrats.

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OK I know its the last day of the year.....but this guy just threw a no-hitter. If you spot started this guy...congrats.

On 99 pitches. Was hoping they wouldn't score there because I think he would've come out for the 10th.

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OK I know its the last day of the year.....but this guy just threw a no-hitter. If you spot started this guy...congrats.

On 99 pitches. Was hoping they wouldn't score there because I think he would've come out for the 10th.

Yup, he was in the on-deck circle when the winning run scored. Def was going til his arm fell off!

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he's solid!! But just blew up his sleeper status for next year

Solid pitcher but his K rate is awful and always has been

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he's solid!! But just blew up his sleeper status for next year

Solid pitcher but his K rate is awful and always has been

yup he doesn't k anybody. But as Bartolo Colon and others have shown, having a great guy for ratios helps offset the lack of k's. Of course you need to be able to get QS (or wins if you count those) to counter the lack of k's but he can be a useful end-of-the-rotation piece.

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Will probably go down as one of the least memorable no-hitters of all time given it was the last day of the season on a Marlins' team absolutely no one pays attention to. In a few years, people will look at a list of no-hitters and go, "Henderson Alvarez threw a no hitter?"

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Will probably go down as one of the least memorable no-hitters of all time given it was the last day of the season on a Marlins' team absolutely no one pays attention to. In a few years, people will look at a list of no-hitters and go, "Henderson Alvarez threw a no hitter?"

But the funny thing about it was it was a walk-off no-hitter. Pretty cool.

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Will probably go down as one of the least memorable no-hitters of all time given it was the last day of the season on a Marlins' team absolutely no one pays attention to. In a few years, people will look at a list of no-hitters and go, "Henderson Alvarez threw a no hitter?"

But the funny thing about it was it was a walk-off no-hitter. Pretty cool.

True. But most people have so completely tuned out to regular season baseball by the end of the year aside from games with playoff implications, you know looking back in a couple years it will be like, "Oh damn, I totally forgot that guy threw a no hitter."

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