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Mark Trumbo 2013 Outlook

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i didn't see one of these for him, so i thought i'd start the conversation. the dude has great home run power and in the angels lineup he could easily get 100+ rbi's. he plays outfield, first base, and most importantly, third base. if you look to use him as a third baseman he could be a steal. if he goes where mlb.com ranks him (132.) he was on fire last year before slumping toward the end of the season. a .270 avg 35 hr 100 rbi season wouldn't surprise me, and that's good production for any position. how many trumbo fans do we have on rotoworld?

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He obviously could be source of huge power potential at a reasonable price. But his plate discipline issues are very legitimate and reared their ugly head in a catastrophic second half of last season, where he hit .227/.271/.359. He had an O-Swing% of 40.2, which is 9th worst in MLB, up there with the notorious hackers of MLB such as Francouer, Delmon Young, and Josh Hamilton and, to boot, he strikes out a ton. To me, he has the profile of a possible .220-.230 hitter.

Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season

I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.

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I'm all aboard the Trumbo train. In Yahoo leagues he is 1B, 3B and OF eligible for this season. Great power plus position flexibility. Love players like that.

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He obviously could be source of huge power potential at a reasonable price. But his plate discipline issues are very legitimate and reared their ugly head in a catastrophic second half of last season, where he hit .227/.271/.359. He had an O-Swing% of 40.2, which is 9th worst in MLB, up there with the notorious hackers of MLB such as Francouer, Delmon Young, and Josh Hamilton and, to boot, he strikes out a ton. To me, he has the profile of a possible .220-.230 hitter.

Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season

I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.

He was hurt in the second half, though. An injury which affected his swing.

Still, your stats and breakdown about his BABIP/LD% is very good analysis and a good warning sign for everyone to take note of.

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I'm all aboard the Trumbo train. In Yahoo leagues he is 1B, 3B and OF eligible for this season. Great power plus position flexibility. Love players like that.

I was all on the Trumbo train last year. As I saw him as equal to Ike Davis just going far later in drafts yet he was looking at gaining 3B eligibility from the talks in spring training.

This year I see it as the exact opposite. No 3B eligibility and going much sooner than Ike I'd rather just sit on Ike Davis.

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Well, he will have 3b eligibility in Yahoo leagues but that strike out rate is totally concerning. I might try to sell him before the season starts in my dynasty league.

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I'm all aboard the Trumbo train. In Yahoo leagues he is 1B, 3B and OF eligible for this season. Great power plus position flexibility. Love players like that.

I was all on the Trumbo train last year. As I saw him as equal to Ike Davis just going far later in drafts yet he was looking at gaining 3B eligibility from the talks in spring training.

This year I see it as the exact opposite. No 3B eligibility and going much sooner than Ike I'd rather just sit on Ike Davis.

I targeted trumbo and ike davis for legit power. dropped them both a month into the season. what no name guy can do 30 homeruns this year. he is worth taking a shot on compared to the guys he is ranked with.

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He obviously could be source of huge power potential at a reasonable price. But his plate discipline issues are very legitimate and reared their ugly head in a catastrophic second half of last season, where he hit .227/.271/.359. He had an O-Swing% of 40.2, which is 9th worst in MLB, up there with the notorious hackers of MLB such as Francouer, Delmon Young, and Josh Hamilton and, to boot, he strikes out a ton. To me, he has the profile of a possible .220-.230 hitter.

Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season

I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.

Came here to post almost exactly this. Well done.

The power is very real.

Everything else, I'm very skeptical of

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it's funny people are mentioning ike davis, i had originally planned on taking him, but i needed a third baseman. i think ike davis will have a good year too. and i think trumbo is more like what he was pre-all star break last year. if he avoids those long slumps i don't think i'll be disappointed with his production.

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http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/mark-trumbo-just-a-slump-or-a-sign-of-things-to-come/

This article doesn't have anything post Morales trade, so obviously he has a clear path to dh as well. I agree with this article. The injury clearly effected him in the final 2 months and his first 2 months was luck aided. He does have a bad ld% so a lower babip should be in order, but his minor league babip's and batting averages were fine so I am going to stick with the theory that this injury really bothered his swing. I see more of a .265 hitter who will his .275 with good luck and .250 with bad luck. He has 40 hr and 120 RBI upside (assuming he hits 5th or at worst 6th) which is rare nowadays. It's best to assume 30-35 hrs and 90-100 RBI, but he has the potential to carry your team in the power departments. In auction leagues his pop may overvalue him considering his shortcomings, but in snake drafts he is a great target for anyone who needs some pop later on. His mdc adp is 66, but CBS and yahoo o-rank are both around 110. 66 does not offer a ton of upside, but 110 sure does.

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I thinks his ultimate upside is .270/.320/.550 with 30-40 HR's

last year was so drastic from one half to the other when it comes to his skillset. First half Trumbo was flukey, and 2nd half Trumbo was simply too horrendous. He's at that point in his career where he should start to reach his peak

With Trout/Hamilton/Pujols all hitting in front of him this season, hopefully this is the year he knocks in 100+ while providing a .260+ BA and 35 bombs

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i didn't see one of these for him, so i thought i'd start the conversation. the dude has great home run power and in the angels lineup he could easily get 100+ rbi's. he plays outfield, first base, and most importantly, third base. if you look to use him as a third baseman he could be a steal. if he goes where mlb.com ranks him (132.) he was on fire last year before slumping toward the end of the season. a .270 avg 35 hr 100 rbi season wouldn't surprise me, and that's good production for any position. how many trumbo fans do we have on rotoworld?

With him its all about price and value. I agree with what you have written above, he could be a 2-category guy, a liability in average, runs and SBs, that said, looking at his ADP I still like him because I think he is undervalued. I would rather have him than Ryan Howard, who we KNOW is an average liability and honestly, if you gave me the choice to start a team with a mid 1st round pick of Prince Fielder in place or a mid 9th round pick of Trumbo, I would rather have Trumbo.

So while I agree there are some flaws, I think he is being drafted as a 2 category contributor who could have flaws eslewhere but I think he is being taken where a guy like that should go unlike some others.

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i've changed my mind about him. on yahoo his average draft position is 105. he's not as much of a bargain if you look at him being taken there.

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I was just wondering if anyone has been able to see how Mark Trumbo looks this spring. I'm just looking for more information about him. It seems that a lot of people are "down" on him. He does scare me, but I like that he's that magical age of 27. Maybe this year, in a stacked lineup, he will put together a full season. I also like the idea that Trumbo will stick with one fielding position (LF), so maybe that will help clear his head to focus on hitting.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, March 7, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

I was just wondering if anyone has been able to see how Mark Trumbo looks this spring. I'm contemplating keeping him with a 19th round pick cost and I'm just looking for more information about him. It seems that a lot of people are "down" on him. He does scare me, but I like that he's that magical age of 27. Maybe this year, in a stacked lineup, he will put together a full season. I also like the idea that Trumbo will stick with one fielding position (LF), so maybe that will help clear his head to focus on hitting.

19th rounder shouldn't take any thought, easy decision.

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Realistically, what kind of numbers are people expecting this year? I'm thinking .265-32-103-5. Too optimistic?

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Realistically, what kind of numbers are people expecting this year? I'm thinking .265-32-103-5. Too optimistic?

Honestly, I have no clue what to think of Trumbo this season and it's extremely frustrating. What happened in the second-half last year with his drop off? Minor injury or pitchers figured him out? I haven't seen enough of his live at-bats, and seeing one-swing highlights on ESPN/YouTube doesn't help.

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Realistically, what kind of numbers are people expecting this year? I'm thinking .265-32-103-5. Too optimistic?

Honestly, I have no clue what to think of Trumbo this season and it's extremely frustrating. What happened in the second-half last year with his drop off? Minor injury or pitchers figured him out? I haven't seen enough of his live at-bats, and seeing one-swing highlights on ESPN/YouTube doesn't help.

Related: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/mark-trumbo-just-a-slump-or-a-sign-of-things-to-come/

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i've changed my mind about him. on yahoo his average draft position is 105. he's not as much of a bargain if you look at him being taken there.

30 hrs at 105? That seems reasonable but no not a steal.

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Mike Morse is the better value for the same power, but better overall production. 155 ESPN ADP and 175 Yahoo ranking. Sign me up.

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no 1b,Of, 3b elig. you forgot that part

Mike Morse is the better value for the same power, but better overall production. 155 ESPN ADP and 175 Yahoo ranking. Sign me up.

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no HR's in spring with a s---y average to boot.......... worrisome?

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