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ballfan4141

Ryan Zimmerman 2013 Outlook

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Zimmerman has been around long enough, and has had so many nagging injuries, that it's hard to believe he's only 28. He struggled with an AC joint problem all last year but had surgery in the off-season and should be pain free by ST. Even with a bad shoulder he managed a pretty decent line: 93R 25HR 95RBI 5SB .282.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another 5+ homers and some improvement in everything else (except for steals).

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Was looking at this guy the other day and was utterly shocked by the second half he put together. When his shoulder stopped bothering him (consistently took cortizone shots), he ended up hitting .366 in the month of July with 10 bombs.

Post ASB he went off for a .319/.381/.564 line with 17 HRs, 55 RBI, and 51 Rs in 76 games -- that is otherworldly.

Off-season surgery fixed the shoulder, and that's an excellent lineup for production. I doubt he hits that well for a full season, but is .300/30/100/100 completely out of line?

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I wouldn't say his shoulder is 100% "good," they are limiting his spring reps at 3B because, like last year, throwing across the diamond still gives him trouble.

IDK if it will affect his swing, but at the time last year when he couldn't make the throw at 3B it definitely DID affect his swing.

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Agreed on the shoulder rehab bleeding into spring training, but from what I've seen he's supposed to be good to go by opening day. He's hitting now, and throwing from 90+ feet.

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When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???

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When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???

When Rendon is ready and the move LaRoche to another team.

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When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???

When Rendon is ready and the move LaRoche to another team.

Not so sure about that. Rendon's not exactly a picture of health, and isn't Zimm pretty strong defensively at 3B (arm issues from last year notwithstanding)?

I think Rendon ends up at 2B in the near future, especially if Espinosa continues to hit .230. LaRoche is on a 2-year deal, right? And it's much easier to find a guy for 1B than an elite-level 3B.

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He just today started throwing to second base per RW. They treat it as good news, I'm personally thinking it's bad news or at best neutral.

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Draft Zimm based on his promise, and you'll be disappointed.

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He just today started throwing to second base per RW. They treat it as good news, I'm personally thinking it's bad news or at best neutral.

He's got another 4 weeks at least to get ready for the season, and Zimmerman is rather infamous for believing Spring Training to be too long and drawn out. He's probably perfectly happy where he is...

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He just today started throwing to second base per RW. They treat it as good news, I'm personally thinking it's bad news or at best neutral.

He's got another 4 weeks at least to get ready for the season, and Zimmerman is rather infamous for believing Spring Training to be too long and drawn out. He's probably perfectly happy where he is...

Yeah, he sure started out with a bang last year...

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This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

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Yeah, he sure started out with a bang last year...

He was hurt? What's your point here?

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This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

Can't disagree more with this. Headley, the ever-under-peforming guy with one fluke year of elite production?

Healey's HR/FB% for his career:

2008 - 10.7%

2009 - 7.6%

2010 - 6.4%

2011 - 4.3%

2012 - 21.4%

Sing it with me - "One of these things is not like the other..."

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^^^ Or.... breakout year?

At 28? Guess he wouldn't be the first...

Let's look at ISO...

2008 - .151

2009 - .131

2010 - .111

2011 - .110

2012 - .212

Not to mention a career-high 48.5 GB% and a 1.51 GB/FB ratio.

If you buy Chase Headley expecting more than 15 HRs, you're likely to be disappointed. The speed is legit, and he can hit .285+, but I don't buy the power spike... not in that park especially.

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This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

JFS tackled the latter portion of why this statement is wrong, so I'll look at the first. Not sure why he gets the tag of "always injured". 2 of his 7 MLB seasons ('08 & '11) shortened due to injury. The other years - 157, 162 (!), 157, 142, 145. And he still played over 100 games in both of the two injury-shortened seasons.

He's a professional hitter, hitting in a great spot in a great lineup. There is reason to expect a bit of regression from last year's numbers, but I have plenty of confidence projecting him to hit .280/23HR/85R/90RBI with potential to easily finish north of each of those categories, given that he is still just 28 years old.

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This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

JFS tackled the latter portion of why this statement is wrong, so I'll look at the first. Not sure why he gets the tag of "always injured". 2 of his 7 MLB seasons ('08 & '11) shortened due to injury. The other years - 157, 162 (!), 157, 142, 145. And he still played over 100 games in both of the two injury-shortened seasons.

He's a professional hitter, hitting in a great spot in a great lineup. There is reason to expect a bit of regression from last year's numbers, but I have plenty of confidence projecting him to hit .280/23HR/85R/90RBI with potential to easily finish north of each of those categories, given that he is still just 28 years old.

Good line, but I'd bet the power is better. Given he's posted a 33 HR season, and hit 25 twice (including last year), and 24 another time, I think 27-28 is a conservative number. The guy hit 20 of his 25 HRs from July on last year.

I don't think he holds that pace, but assuming he hits a total of 5 HRs in April, May, and June again would be an equal fallacy in my opinion.

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He was hurt? He still is hurt. He can't field his position RIGHT NOW AS WE SPEAK. What are you even arguing in support of? That we should magically ignore the fact that he's obviously being brought along slowly because he "never takes spring seriously?" as if that's a good thing?

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When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???

I wouldn't expect them to do that anytime soon. Zimmerman is great defensively. They'll move Renden, which they have already started, before they move Zimmerman. Even if his bat isn't producing, he can still be valuable to them because of defense.

As for his season, I think he could come through with a big year. His shoulder clearly impacted him, but after getting shots to take away the pain, he was a beast. If he isn't hurt, I can see .300 to go along with 30 homers and 100+ rbi's. 3B is deep this year. If you're still concerned about the shoulder but end up drafting him, just pick up a guy later like Moustakas or Frazier to protect yourself in case he is still hurt.

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He was hurt? He still is hurt. He can't field his position RIGHT NOW AS WE SPEAK. What are you even arguing in support of? That we should magically ignore the fact that he's obviously being brought along slowly because he "never takes spring seriously?" as if that's a good thing?

Exactly my point. The past few years he has been more injured than not. Zimm has a ton of potential but I wouldn't take him as my #3/#4 pick. He clearly has 3rd round potential but you either get a) inconsistent (he was awful before the ASB) B) awesome or c) none (injured) performance.

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This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

JFS tackled the latter portion of why this statement is wrong, so I'll look at the first. Not sure why he gets the tag of "always injured". 2 of his 7 MLB seasons ('08 & '11) shortened due to injury. The other years - 157, 162 (!), 157, 142, 145. And he still played over 100 games in both of the two injury-shortened seasons.

He's a professional hitter, hitting in a great spot in a great lineup. There is reason to expect a bit of regression from last year's numbers, but I have plenty of confidence projecting him to hit .280/23HR/85R/90RBI with potential to easily finish north of each of those categories, given that he is still just 28 years old.

What's his ADP? Those numbers are fine, but I assuming he's being drafted fairly early.

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Played 3rd base today without any issues. Hitting .460 in the spring. Usually don't put much stock into spring stats, but its good to see he is at least having success at the dish. I really like the Nats going to get Span in the offseason, that lineup is really solid with Span leading off, Werth - Harper - Zimmerman - Laroche - Desmond - Espinosa - Ramos/Suzuki - Pitcher. Should be a top 10 run producing lineup this season.

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He's mashing. I guess when the shoulder is ok, he's okay. But with him, if its not the shoulder, it'll be some other issue that comes up during the year.

Even if he does miss time, I sera repeat of last years numbers.

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