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nittanychris

Ricky Romero 2013 Outlook

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What do people think? This man could supply some real nice value if he approaches the numbers he had THREE YEARS in a row prior to last season. Last season was HORRIFIC, no doubt. But he had some injuries and never got straightened out. Most people will downgrade him significantly, hence the value opportunity.

What do people think?

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he had elbow surgery in oct to clean up "scar tissue" ... whatever that means ... in any case, i'm totally cool with disregarding last year and chalking it up to injury. if you watched him, his breaking stuff was atrocitous. it would either hang fat, or break way too early and guys would just take it all day. you can see how that would be attribuable to elbow pain... his velocity was still there though.

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Eh this guy gives me heartburn when he pitches. There's no reason to roster a guy like him.

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The reason to roster him is that in an AL only league heading into the 2012 season he was a top ten SP. The question before us now is...does one awful season destroy all that? If not, then it's not a stretch that he could return to be a top 20 AL Only SP this year who will cost next to nothing. Make sense?

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The reason to roster him is that in an AL only league heading into the 2012 season he was a top ten SP. The question before us now is...does one awful season destroy all that? If not, then it's not a stretch that he could return to be a top 20 AL Only SP this year who will cost next to nothing. Make sense?

The problem with going into last year, he was ranked too high. His 2011 season was good, but it was luck aided and he was due for a decent regression in at least ERA. He should have been ranked as a top 20 starter last year as well, but I can understand the reasoning for him being higher. Here's the issue with Romero, and this was a big issue for him during his Minor League career as well, is the walks. He walked 5.22 batters per nine last season, now if the Jays had had any other options for their rotation, he would have been demoted. But since every starter they had last year seemed to have Tommy John, they kept throwing him out there.

If he can iron out his control problems that re-surfaced (you would think he could at least do that), then he has the realistic upside of being a mid 3 ERA type pitcher that throws 200 innings and strikes out 7 per 9. I'm not confident he'll be any better than an SP3 (and more than likely, worse) in an AL-Only league this year, but he should be dirt cheap.

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I should say that if he can iron out control problems for him. So basically, around three and a half walks per nine innings.

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He's not as dirt cheap as you would think. In Yahoo, his O-rank is 246. There are a lot of other options at that point that I would rather have than Romero. The SPs ranked right ahead of Romero include Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson, Brandon McCarthy, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Harrison, Buchholz, Pettitte, Edwin Jackson. Right after Romero is Iwakuma, AJ Griffin, Johan Santana, Wandy, Jason Hammel, Scott Baker. All of these guys feel like better options than Ricky.

If Romero's O-Rank fell into the 400s or 500s, maybe I would take a late-round flier or a cheap auction bid on him. But there are some solid options right around Romero's tier, so I'm staying away.

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He's not as dirt cheap as you would think. In Yahoo, his O-rank is 246. There are a lot of other options at that point that I would rather have than Romero. The SPs ranked right ahead of Romero include Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson, Brandon McCarthy, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Harrison, Buchholz, Pettitte, Edwin Jackson. Right after Romero is Iwakuma, AJ Griffin, Johan Santana, Wandy, Jason Hammel, Scott Baker. All of these guys feel like better options than Ricky.

If Romero's O-Rank fell into the 400s or 500s, maybe I would take a late-round flier or a cheap auction bid on him. But there are some solid options right around Romero's tier, so I'm staying away.

Yeah, I like all of those pitchers better too...

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Romero to me is somewhere between 2 years ago and last year. He had a very lucky season 2 years ago with a .242 BABIP. But at the same time the K% dropped drastically.

I think his 2013 will be close to but not as good as his 2010 season. But I doubt he has another season like his 2011 season.

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I think he bounces back to what he was in 2010. Romero is on a list of guys I have mentioned before. Guys that come up, have really solid starts to their careers, then have one crap year and everyone wants to abandon ship, and then that guy turns it around. With all the additions the Jays made he won't have whatever mental pressure there is of an ace and he'll have a better line up around him. Pitching is deep this year but with an adp of 305 and drafted as the #82 starter, I will make sure to target him about 10+ spots ahead of that. For auction leagues it may be more difficult since he carries some name value, but I think we saw a one yer aberration and he goes back to a top 30 starter this year.

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Another thing that makes me not a big fan of Ricky Romero is that his minor league numbers were kind of bad....

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Another thing that makes me not a big fan of Ricky Romero is that his minor league numbers were kind of bad....

That's irrelevant at this point, as he had a pretty successful 3 year run in the AL East. There are tons of examples of a guy not playing well in the minors but does play well in the majors. Once a player shows sustained (a few years) major league success, I feel like we can safely disregard any minor league numbers. He has good stuff so it's not like he's a total fluke or anything. I do remember that he was pretty highly regarded at one point, even though his numbers never looked great in the minors. Looking at the random spike in walk rate the best explanation is likely he had some problems with that elbow that he got cleaned up.

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I like his stuff but am staying far away. I hate pitchers who have no damage control button, it seems whenever things start to go bad for him they end up really, really bad.

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Eh this guy gives me heartburn when he pitches. There's no reason to roster a guy like him.

This. He's right up there with Liriano to me. Both can be great, but are way too frustrating to own.

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I don't normally care much for ST stats, but 17 strikes in 36 pitches is horrendous. Something to monitor for anyone (me) thinking he will bounce back.

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I don't normally care much for ST stats, but 17 strikes in 36 pitches is horrendous. Something to monitor for anyone (me) thinking he will bounce back.

ST stats mean literally nothing.

Of his 34 pitches, Romero estimated that 90-95% were sinkers. He seemed unconcerned that he threw 19 balls. He says is determined to revive the sinker, in the full knowledge that it can be difficult to control at times.

He's just trying stuff out. While I'm not exactly optimistic of a good year, it's not like this is even remotely close to how he would pitch in a meaningful game.

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CM52, I could not agree with you more. People read WAY too much into Spring Training stats. Even the "experts" do the same. This guy on Fangraphs wrote a whole article on whether or not Alexi Ogando may be injured because his velocity was down and he had trouble finding his release point after his FIRST 1.1 IP OF SPRING TRAINING! Can you believe that?

Not guaranteeing a bounceback year for Romero but his track record prior to last year would indicate he is worth a reasonable gamble to take. A low risk, high reward guy.

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I don't normally care much for ST stats, but 17 strikes in 36 pitches is horrendous. Something to monitor for anyone (me) thinking he will bounce back.

ST stats mean literally nothing.

Of his 34 pitches, Romero estimated that 90-95% were sinkers. He seemed unconcerned that he threw 19 balls. He says is determined to revive the sinker, in the full knowledge that it can be difficult to control at times.

He's just trying stuff out. While I'm not exactly optimistic of a good year, it's not like this is even remotely close to how he would pitch in a meaningful game.

I agree with you that ST games are meaningless for a vet this early in the spring, but either way I am not touching this guy this year. I had him two years ago when he was great, but his stats were better then he actually is. His peripheral stats last year were not that much different from the year before except he wasnt as lucky with BABIP and his strand rate. His K's also went down and walks went up, so I'm just not a fan at all this year

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I don't normally care much for ST stats, but 17 strikes in 36 pitches is horrendous. Something to monitor for anyone (me) thinking he will bounce back.

ST stats mean literally nothing.

Of his 34 pitches, Romero estimated that 90-95% were sinkers. He seemed unconcerned that he threw 19 balls. He says is determined to revive the sinker, in the full knowledge that it can be difficult to control at times.

He's just trying stuff out. While I'm not exactly optimistic of a good year, it's not like this is even remotely close to how he would pitch in a meaningful game.

I agree with you that ST games are meaningless for a vet this early in the spring, but either way I am not touching this guy this year. I had him two years ago when he was great, but his stats were better then he actually is. His peripheral stats last year were not that much different from the year before except he wasnt as lucky with BABIP and his strand rate. His K's also went down and walks went up, so I'm just not a fan at all this year

That's just not true. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA were all about a run higher in 2012 than 2011. But yes, he was obviously overrated after 2011. If his health problems end up behind him, he'll probably be as good as his 2011 peripherals: an ~4 ERA pitcher who gets 7 K/9.

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I don't know where I was going with saying they were all pretty close, but a few of them were. His hr/fb% and gb% were basically the same. But I agree with you he is basically a four ERA pitcher with ok K rates and a mediocre whip

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I want to believe in this guy, but this guy was awful last year. I'd need to see a lot for me to believe in him again. I just keep having dreams of his first few years in the league. Here's to hoping.

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