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David Light

Jordan Zimmermann 2013 Outlook

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He seems to be going quite late in drafts considering his stellar year last year. He is also only 26 and arguably yet to hit his prime. Last year he had a 2.94 ERA with a 1.17 Whip - that's elite stuff.

On Rotowire, it has his average draft position at 111 though, which I think is really low. Anyone have opinions on him - Or numbers that would suggest last year was lucky?

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Not sure about numbers, but I owned him last year and I didn't see a reason why people would be down on him. With Haren, he could learn some experience from a veteran and he was great for me. I believe I remember his K rate being low.

Either way, I had him for $13 last year and I expected to give him a contract (making him $18 in my league). Then I saw that his average draft value was $10. I must admit, Ks or no Ks, I was a little shocked.

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I think Zimmermann can provide some great value. Yahoo has him as the #25 SP, ADP of 113, going after Latos and Scherzer. Looking at some of the advanced metrics, nothing is screaming regression to me - 2012 LOB% and BABIP were both slightly better than career average, but 2012 HR/FB% is sustainable, FB velocity and SwStr% have increased the last two seasons. His K/9 and BB/9 are both fine. Plus, he ought to be fully recovered from the TJ surgery, so we can probably expect 200+ innings. I'll be targeting him in the 8ish round as a solid #2SP.

Projection: 14-7, 202 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 165 K

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Latos and Scherzer I have ranked slightly above Zimmermann but all 3 of these guys will prove to be great values.

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Thats way to low for him in Yahoo leagues, I remember last year ESPN has him around 120 and to see that his stock hasnt improved that much is very weird. He really did have a borderline elite season last year, and I want him in most of my leagues this year.

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And he did not get good run support from the Nats. I can see him getting +15 W easily.

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And he did not get good run support from the Nats. I can see him getting +15 W easily.

Actually he was tied for 14th most in the MLB in run support per start at 4.91. However, he only went 7IP in 9 of his 32 starts last year and never went more than 7. It'll be interesting to see if he has a longer leash this year, as that is what will help him generate a few more W's.

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And he did not get good run support from the Nats. I can see him getting +15 W easily.

Actually he was tied for 14th most in the MLB in run support per start at 4.91. However, he only went 7IP in 9 of his 32 starts last year and never went more than 7. It'll be interesting to see if he has a longer leash this year, as that is what will help him generate a few more W's.

Wasn't this the second year after TJ surgery? The not going deep into games is what soured me on him last year even though every team that had him won the league. But if the second year idea is right how does that effect Strassburgh going into his second year? The Nats seem extremely cautious with starting pitching and now have the potential to have a lockdown bull pen for the 7th through 9th innings.

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I think they already said that they weren't going to have any restrictions if I'm not mistaken. Although being a pitcher of his caliber, already having a TJ, and how young he is, I think they will still keep close to a 100 pc a game. With the exception of a few, not many pitchers really throw more pitches than that in a game anyways. In reality, I think you can at least expect what he did on a per game basis last year, plus 4-5 extra games.

*This is pertaining to Strasburg btw*

Same applies for Zimmerman as well, you can expect some what of the same counting stats from him. Of course the wins/losses will vary.

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23 straight starts of 6+ innings last year, definitely one of those underappreciated pitchers who is just consistent as hell (Matt Cain Jr?). His K/9 isn't elite at 7.04, ranked 51st last year, but was better than some pitchers who might surprise you. I'd take him all day as my #2, 2.5 pitcher, especially in my league where pitching usually falls a round or two later than ADP projections.

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Love this guy, and I especially love that he seems to be underrated. He'll wind up on all of my teams this year.

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Thank you CBS for ranking him 125th, I will glady "reach" and grab him in the 90's range to ensure I get him. As mentioned, wins are a fluke. He could win 18 this year, who knows. However, elite control is not a fluke. He has elite control and a good enough swinging strike % + high velocity to the point it shouldn't surprise if he puts it all together and finishes with over 180 k's. He will be an elite #2 sp and is worth a pick as high as round 6 in my eyes, but you can likely get him in the 7-10 range.

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Yep. Love his game. If he even gets a slight uptick in K's his value goes up that much more. Very, very consistent last year, which I love(Joe Morgan approves, to)

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Yeah something that a lot of people (or at least I didn't) realize is how hard Zimmerman throws. He averaged 93.8mph on his fastball last season, good for 6th in the MLB. With someone who throws that hard, you would think their K% would be higher, but it turns out he actually pitches to contact by choice:

"“Before I had Tommy John, I was striking a lot of guys out. I would throw a lot of pitches. Once I came back from it, I told myself, ‘Let’s pitch to contact and let’s not strike as many guys out.’ That way I can stay in the game longer."

It's nice to know he is working on going deeper into games, and even nicer to know that he has the ability to control his game like that and that he has an underlying skillset as a strikeout pitcher. If he can put all of things together one season (Like Cain did last year with his K% jumping three percent to a career high) I think he has the stuff to finish as a top 10 pitcher.

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Espn actually ranks him around 70. I still think he is good there, but he doesn't have the value as he does in yahoo and CBS leagues

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Lot of pitches being hit hard today -- by the Marlins of all teams. Really not liking what I've seen out of JZ so far. This is the year he's supposed to take another step forward.

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Eh Marlins were due for a blow up game after not scoring a run the first few games. I've owned Zimm the previous 2 seasons and he will be a quiet beast this season.

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Only one K so far and that was against the pitcher? Come on man, at least give me sone K's against this putrid lineup.

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What an ugly start. I will gladly take a 1.50 ERA, but a 1.67 WHIP against the Marlins and only one strikeout?!? Blech.

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Typical start for one of my pitchers this week. High whip. I wish he would k more guys and go more than 6

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very 'meh' start by j-zimm, but i will take it. he's actually never done that great against the fish, so i'm not discouraged.

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At least it was a QS and hey, he got some run support in his first start, so hopefully that's a trend for this season

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