Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

ballfan4141

Ian Desmond 2013 Outlook

100 posts in this topic

I like .320 OBP/20/20

Not sure where he is slotted to hit, but runs and ribs should be about 160-170 combined I would guess

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was the first year he's ever hit 20 homers which scares me. 8 hr's,10 hr's in the previous 2 seasons. He is always a threat to steal 20 at least but I'm not sure if he'll hit 20 home runs again. I'm in the middle of the road for Desmond but I think he'll sit around: .275 16 hr 65 rbi 28 sb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was the first year he's ever hit 20 homers which scares me. 8 hr's,10 hr's in the previous 2 seasons. He is always a threat to steal 20 at least but I'm not sure if he'll hit 20 home runs again. I'm in the middle of the road for Desmond but I think he'll sit around: .275 16 hr 65 rbi 28 sb

His power is legit though if you look at his homers by distance I think he ranked second on the team last year or the year before in average distance. He can hit some bombs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That lineup will definitely give him plenty of rbi chances hitting behind Zimmerman, LaRoche, and Werth. I'm guessing he'll end up around 15-20 homers, 75-90 rbi's, 70-80 runs, and 20-25 steals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That lineup will definitely give him plenty of rbi chances hitting behind Zimmerman, LaRoche, and Werth. I'm guessing he'll end up around 15-20 homers, 75-90 rbi's, 70-80 runs, and 20-25 steals.

And 30-35 errors...

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good thing errors do not count in fantasy. But on a real tip he is working hard on correcting his fielding issues. No different then say a Starlin Castro. Go look at Desmond's homerun highlight reel on MLB.com. He very rarely hit any cheapies and looks more jacked then your typical SS. When he hit the ball it jumped off his bat. I am buyer on Desmond because I truly think his 20 homer potential is here to stay and the SB's will be be there. He exploded last year when he was put in the 6th spot. Great spot for him to collect his 80 RBi's and also plenty of chances to steal bases. If you can get a SS who can get you 80 20 80 25 .280 then you got yourself a stud at SS.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With a .332 babip, I expect that batting avg to fall.

My projection: .265 avg, 14 hr, 70 rbi, 17 sb

His lifetime BABIP is .320. No reason to expect much regression there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good thing errors do not count in fantasy. But on a real tip he is working hard on correcting his fielding issues. No different then say a Starlin Castro. Go look at Desmond's homerun highlight reel on MLB.com. He very rarely hit any cheapies and looks more jacked then your typical SS. When he hit the ball it jumped off his bat. I am buyer on Desmond because I truly think his 20 homer potential is here to stay and the SB's will be be there. He exploded last year when he was put in the 6th spot. Great spot for him to collect his 80 RBi's and also plenty of chances to steal bases. If you can get a SS who can get you 80 20 80 25 .280 then you got yourself a stud at SS.

I agree.....I am in the "I'm bullish on Desmond" camp :)

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was the first year he's ever hit 20 homers which scares me. 8 hr's,10 hr's in the previous 2 seasons. He is always a threat to steal 20 at least but I'm not sure if he'll hit 20 home runs again. I'm in the middle of the road for Desmond but I think he'll sit around: .275 16 hr 65 rbi 28 sb

Agree with these numbers. Only time I will agree with a Giant fan ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy is primed for a huge season. He has tons of firepower around him, and the only thing that can hold him back is an injury.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy is primed for a huge season. He has tons of firepower around him, and the only thing that can hold him back is an injury.

You are not worried that he more then tripled his hr's from the year before? His career high was 10 before 25 last year. I think he will come down in many cats this year form 2012 but still be a decent SS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy is primed for a huge season. He has tons of firepower around him, and the only thing that can hold him back is an injury.

You are not worried that he more then tripled his hr's from the year before? His career high was 10 before 25 last year. I think he will come down in many cats this year form 2012 but still be a decent SS.

Not worried at all, he's just now entering his prime (age 27 season).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With him it isnt so much the numbers of HRs of the previous years as it is the power potential you see, like posted above he hits some long HRs. I think he may be a little undervalued

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is another guy I just have no idea what to do with. He's going about 6th round in 12 team leagues. Last year he hit 25 homers in 130 games... Is this for real? The speed has always been there, but the power kind of came out of no where. Wondering if he is this years Asdrubal Cabrera who will fall back into the mid teens in homers... At the same time, he will be 27 this year so its not like he has a history of 5-7 seasons without power. His average is likely headed for a fall, but I don't think anyone will care if he goes 20/20.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Desmond feels like a bust to me this year. Terrible K/BB ratio, terrible plate discipline. His HR/FB% just skyrocketed last year from previous years, and he hit the same percentage of fly balls as he did previous years. I just have a feeling he'll be one of those players that is picked early, and owners will come flocking in this thread in May and June screaming about how busty he is.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think theres no reason he won't hit .270+ with a good chance for 18-20 homers and 20+ steals. That lineup should be pretty stacked too, so his other stats should be pretty good. I'll take those numbers for SS any day if I miss out on the top guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think last year was his ceiling and is not going to be the norm. Hope I'm wrong because I was touting him big time last year but I just have a feeling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think last year was his ceiling and is not going to be the norm. Hope I'm wrong because I was touting him big time last year but I just have a feeling.

Well he always had the 20+ stolen base ability. What will regress is the homers. He had an 18.2 HR/FB percent last year, aka 18.2 percent of his fly balls left the park. His career percentage is 11.1%. If that goes back to normal, that means more fly balls will be outs which means his average will dip to .270 to .280 and will mean 5 to 7 less homeruns.

His BABIP last year was .332 but his career norm is .320, so not much difference there.

But anything can happen. This will only be his 4th full season, he's only 27, so maybe he will continue to improve. But I think his floor is .270 18hr/20sb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed, the SBs are legit. I'm just not sure he's that good of a hitter in actuality, I suppose the stats sort or support that. I won't be picking him because he is going earlier than I'd take him, but we'll see. He's in the right lineup to be productive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is another guy I just have no idea what to do with. He's going about 6th round in 12 team leagues. Last year he hit 25 homers in 130 games... Is this for real? The speed has always been there, but the power kind of came out of no where. Wondering if he is this years Asdrubal Cabrera who will fall back into the mid teens in homers... At the same time, he will be 27 this year so its not like he has a history of 5-7 seasons without power. His average is likely headed for a fall, but I don't think anyone will care if he goes 20/20.

I saw this article on FanGraphs concerning Desmond:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/ian-desmonds-breakout-year/

Looking at his ESPN Home Run Tracker data, 8 of his 25 shots were classified as “just enough”, which is just 1 more than the league average mark, so no red flag there. His average standard distance was most impressive, coming in at a whopping 407 feet, well above the National League average of 395.7 feet. The distance also compares favorably to previous years of 389 and 400 feet.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.