Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Skoodog

Matt Garza 2013 Outlook

452 posts in this topic

sounds like an oblique injury perhaps? At least it's not his elbow, I guess...

@ESPNChiCubs

Sveum says "mild lat strain" for garza on left side. 20th pitch into a 40 pitch session .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like nothing serious. Worth monitoring though. This guy carries a pretty big injury risk this year, but I like his upside, especially considering he will probably be dealt to a contender in June or July if healthy. So he should only have to suffer through baseball hell for 2-3 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like nothing serious. Worth monitoring though. This guy carries a pretty big injury risk this year, but I like his upside, especially considering he will probably be dealt to a contender in June or July if healthy. So he should only have to suffer through baseball hell for 2-3 months.

:lol: Poor Cubbies. Sounds like crisis averted but you never know how other injuries coming back from rehab might delay his progress.....If it depresses his value even more and he can somehow stay healthy, he could end up being a draft day steal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

YEah, sounds like they dodged a bullet. Plenty of time before the start of the season to rest/heal up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, he should be back around April 1, just in time to suffer his next injury.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, he should be back around April 1, just in time to suffer his next injury.

That long?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.

Before last year, Garza had thrown 185+ innings in the preceding 4 years and 30+ starts. Seems like a little recency bias that he's always hurt. Until last year, he had actually been rather dependable.....

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.

Before last year, Garza had thrown 185+ innings in the preceding 4 years and 30+ starts. Seems like a little recency bias that he's always hurt. Until last year, he had actually been rather dependable.....

Good point, I have last year stuck in my head. I did just grab him in the forums MD3 at pick 189. If he recovers from his current injury in time to start the year I think we could see the same Garza with a good amount of Ks, Decent whip and decent ERA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.

Before last year, Garza had thrown 185+ innings in the preceding 4 years and 30+ starts. Seems like a little recency bias that he's always hurt. Until last year, he had actually been rather dependable.....

I know he has had multiple elbow injuries in the past - an inflamed radial nerve in 2008, a elbow bone bruise in 2011, and then last year's elbow stress fracture. I'm not concerned about the lat injury but there's something about his elbow that worries me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like he will now open the season on the DL. I actually think this helps his value if that makes any sense. I think his ADP will drop more, and he might end up only missing two starts and come back fully healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I traded every single pitcher in my keeper league last year towards the end to load up my hitting. The only one I kept was Garza (he was hurt so I couldnt trade him or I would of) but I retained him cheap. Annnnnd my only starter currently starts the year on the DL. What are the odds? LOL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's the right move. If he misses one or two starts to begin the season it isn't a huge deal, it's much more important that he get his work in and get healthy. Sounds like this is the lat problem and not the elbow so that's encouraging.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How is everyone looking at him now since most drafts have started and they are projecting him to be probably the majority of April?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's going really late for the upside he's shown in the past. If you are in a H2H league especially, he is definitely worth where he is being drafted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got him in the last round of my draft. Nice guy to stash at the DL spot. I'm hoping the Cubs trade him to a contender by midseason and he'll be healthy and can get some friggin run support. He would really make sense for a team like the Angels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been grabbing Garza in every league possible.

Yeah, his elbow injury from last year is a little concerning, and the fact that he's going to open the season on the DL stinks. But as PB pointed out above, he had thrown 30+ starts and 185+ innings in each of the four seasons prior to last season. To add to that, he had a sub-4.00 ERA every one of those years (including last year) and his WHIP has consistently hovered right around 1.25. Those aren't ace numbers, but when you throw in his K/9 ratio that should be right around 8, he's a very solid SP3.

The fact that the Cubs are extremely likely to trade him this year (to a contender perhaps?) only helps his value. Garza is a great value pick in the late rounds, since he's only likely to miss a few turns in the rotation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been grabbing Garza in every league possible.

Yeah, his elbow injury from last year is a little concerning, and the fact that he's going to open the season on the DL stinks. But as PB pointed out above, he had thrown 30+ starts and 185+ innings in each of the four seasons prior to last season. To add to that, he had a sub-4.00 ERA every one of those years (including last year) and his WHIP has consistently hovered right around 1.25. Those aren't ace numbers, but when you throw in his K/9 ratio that should be right around 8, he's a very solid SP3.

The fact that the Cubs are extremely likely to trade him this year (to a contender perhaps?) only helps his value. Garza is a great value pick in the late rounds, since he's only likely to miss a few turns in the rotation.

I think a lot depends on where you land him. If he's still a mid round pick, it's risky. There can always be a setback and being hurt now makes him liklier to get reinjured. He's on a team that won't get a lot of wins, while he may get traded no guarantees. He's a solid fantasy pitcher, not a great one (trending down it seems) In those rounds, Im looking for someone with more upside and will be there from day 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been grabbing Garza in every league possible.

Yeah, his elbow injury from last year is a little concerning, and the fact that he's going to open the season on the DL stinks. But as PB pointed out above, he had thrown 30+ starts and 185+ innings in each of the four seasons prior to last season. To add to that, he had a sub-4.00 ERA every one of those years (including last year) and his WHIP has consistently hovered right around 1.25. Those aren't ace numbers, but when you throw in his K/9 ratio that should be right around 8, he's a very solid SP3.

The fact that the Cubs are extremely likely to trade him this year (to a contender perhaps?) only helps his value. Garza is a great value pick in the late rounds, since he's only likely to miss a few turns in the rotation.

I think a lot depends on where you land him. If he's still a mid round pick, it's risky. There can always be a setback and being hurt now makes him liklier to get reinjured. He's on a team that won't get a lot of wins, while he may get traded no guarantees. He's a solid fantasy pitcher, not a great one (trending down it seems) In those rounds, Im looking for someone with more upside and will be there from day 1.

The only way you can say he's trending down is if you are assuming his injuries last year/this spring are becoming chronic and will ail him incessantly going forward. It's already been pointed out that he was very durable up until last year.

In his 103.2 innings last year, he had an 8.33 K/9 rate, a 3.91 ERA (tying his 2010 ERA and slightly better than his 2009 ERA), and a career low 1.18 WHIP. I don't see the downward trend.

I got him in the 20th round of a draft last week, and the 18th round of a draft on Sunday (both 12 teamers). I don't see a lot of guys with his track record of success or upside available at that point in the draft.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moreso, if you look at his FB, you don't see velocity drops, which is actually really surprising for a pitcher with elbow issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been grabbing Garza in every league possible.

Yeah, his elbow injury from last year is a little concerning, and the fact that he's going to open the season on the DL stinks. But as PB pointed out above, he had thrown 30+ starts and 185+ innings in each of the four seasons prior to last season. To add to that, he had a sub-4.00 ERA every one of those years (including last year) and his WHIP has consistently hovered right around 1.25. Those aren't ace numbers, but when you throw in his K/9 ratio that should be right around 8, he's a very solid SP3.

The fact that the Cubs are extremely likely to trade him this year (to a contender perhaps?) only helps his value. Garza is a great value pick in the late rounds, since he's only likely to miss a few turns in the rotation.

I think a lot depends on where you land him. If he's still a mid round pick, it's risky. There can always be a setback and being hurt now makes him liklier to get reinjured. He's on a team that won't get a lot of wins, while he may get traded no guarantees. He's a solid fantasy pitcher, not a great one (trending down it seems) In those rounds, Im looking for someone with more upside and will be there from day 1.

The only way you can say he's trending down is if you are assuming his injuries last year/this spring are becoming chronic and will ail him incessantly going forward. It's already been pointed out that he was very durable up until last year.

In his 103.2 innings last year, he had an 8.33 K/9 rate, a 3.91 ERA (tying his 2010 ERA and slightly better than his 2009 ERA), and a career low 1.18 WHIP. I don't see the downward trend.

I got him in the 20th round of a draft last week, and the 18th round of a draft on Sunday (both 12 teamers). I don't see a lot of guys with his track record of success or upside available at that point in the draft.

20th round definitely seems like good value. Especially if you plop in a DL spot and can pick people up early on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got him in Round 22. Steal I think considering without injury he's drafted in the 1st 10 rounds.

Now I'm just waiting for the Cubs to finally put him on DL. I need that extra spot ASAP!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.