Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

JFS179

Aaron Hill 2013 Outlook

286 posts in this topic

So the more I've looked into 2013, the more I believe 2B to be a huge mess. I personally am believe this is one spot you can gain a huge advantage over your league mates with a stud player, as nearly all the players at the position have question marks.

Cano is the rock in Tier 1, and probably worth whatever his acquisition cost in an auction. In a draft I could make a case for him as high as fourth (potentially even 2nd behind Miggy if you play with 3-4 OFs). He's consistently excellent.

Then there's the aging stars who may have slipped a bit - Pedroia, Kinsler, and Phillips types. And you've got the young kids in Kipnis (who posted amazing counting stats, despite an impressively bad second-half swoon) and Altuve (who posts strong AVG and SBs, but plays for a terrible team, and hurts your power numbers).

And then there's this guy - Aaron Hill. A solid if unspectacular MI with 17 HRs and a .291 AVG in 2007, Hill then misses a ton of time in 2008 (playing only 55 games), only to explode in 2009. His 36 HRs, 103 Rs, and 108 RBIs likely won a lot of leagues for folks. And then the flaws emerge. 2010 sees him hit 26 HRs, but with a sub-Dan Uggla .205 AVG. Then the wheels seem to completely come off in 2011 with .225/.270/.313 triple slash in 104 games for Toronto with only 6 HRs, though he did post 16 SBs.

But the desert rejuvenated Hill in his 33 games for the Dbacks, posting a .315/.386/.492 line over his 33 games. The SSS crowd said it was only 124 ABs, and Hill fell again in 2012 drafts. But those who got "stuck" with him were well rewarded with a fantastic .302/.360/.522 line with 26 HRs, 44 doubles, 93 Runs, and 85 RBIs -- even swiped 14 bags.

So as we look at 2013, what do we make of this? Is the Arizona Aaron Hill truly a changed player? In over 800 PAs for Arizona (733 ABs) he's posted a cumulative .304 AVG with a .517 SLG%, including 28 HRs, 56 doubles, 8 triples, and 19 SBs. Stud-worthy numbers.

Where do you side? Sustainable breakout? Or is Hill simply out to break your heart?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Heartbreaker, but I had Hill in 2010 so that experience left an awful taste so I'm probably biased.

Totally agree that 2B is the weakest position for FB this year. I think Zobrist falls into #4 amongst 2B (after Cano, Pedroia and Kinsler but before Kipnis and Phillilps).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually think he can sustain most of it. I got him and pedroia. want to trade pedroia ffor someone else but dont know if he will have a good season and keep him or keep aaron hill and get value out of pedroia whilee I can. but can aaron hill produce consistently. he was playing for a contract like year right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps, but I question whether the contract year argument truly holds water. Don't want to go down that rabbit hole though...

There is some (albeit limited) evidence to suggest an approach change in 2012:

1) Swing % of 44.6 was the lowest since 2006 (with the lowest Z-Swing % of his entire career at 61.4%)

2) Z-Contact % of 92.9 was a career high

3) GB % of 34.3 was the lowest of his career, though he maintained a LD % of 21.1 (.1 less than a career high)

4) IFFB % dropped to a reasonable 9.9 after the previous 4 seasons being 13.2, 11.9, 12.6, and 18.4, respectively

5) 7.8% walk rate was the highest since his rookie year in 2005, despite his K-rate hovering at just under 13% (a career norm)

6) BABIP of .317 is slightly higher than his career .290 BABIP, but his xBABIP was .311

While I don't claim to have the firmest grasp on sabremetrics, this tells me the player became more selective at the plate. He walked more, swung at pitches he could drive (swinging less overall), and stopped popping everything up.

It could be legit...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the more I've looked into 2013, the more I believe 2B to be a huge mess. I personally am believe this is one spot you can gain a huge advantage over your league mates with a stud player, as nearly all the players at the position have question marks.

Cano is the rock in Tier 1, and probably worth whatever his acquisition cost in an auction. In a draft I could make a case for him as high as fourth (potentially even 2nd behind Miggy if you play with 3-4 OFs). He's consistently excellent.

Then there's the aging stars who may have slipped a bit - Pedroia, Kinsler, and Phillips types. And you've got the young kids in Kipnis (who posted amazing counting stats, despite an impressively bad second-half swoon) and Altuve (who posts strong AVG and SBs, but plays for a terrible team, and hurts your power numbers).

And then there's this guy - Aaron Hill. A solid if unspectacular MI with 17 HRs and a .291 AVG in 2007, Hill then misses a ton of time in 2008 (playing only 55 games), only to explode in 2009. His 36 HRs, 103 Rs, and 108 RBIs likely won a lot of leagues for folks. And then the flaws emerge. 2010 sees him hit 26 HRs, but with a sub-Dan Uggla .205 AVG. Then the wheels seem to completely come off in 2011 with .225/.270/.313 triple slash in 104 games for Toronto with only 6 HRs, though he did post 16 SBs.

But the desert rejuvenated Hill in his 33 games for the Dbacks, posting a .315/.386/.492 line over his 33 games. The SSS crowd said it was only 124 ABs, and Hill fell again in 2012 drafts. But those who got "stuck" with him were well rewarded with a fantastic .302/.360/.522 line with 26 HRs, 44 doubles, 93 Runs, and 85 RBIs -- even swiped 14 bags.

So as we look at 2013, what do we make of this? Is the Arizona Aaron Hill truly a changed player? In over 800 PAs for Arizona (733 ABs) he's posted a cumulative .304 AVG with a .517 SLG%, including 28 HRs, 56 doubles, 8 triples, and 19 SBs. Stud-worthy numbers.

Where do you side? Sustainable breakout? Or is Hill simply out to break your heart?

With regards to 2B, it is thin and if you are in a league of any sort of depth, especially ones that have MI, you need to be careful with 2B, because there are a lot of people that are being counted into the 2B rankings that could be used as SS in almost all formats: Zobrist, Espinosa, Rutledge, Scutaro - are either SS eligible only OR have dual.

As for Hill, its crazy when you look at him, at some point over last 4-5 years he has been a major contributor in each of the 5 major categories if you look at his best year in a particular category at the same time, he has been a liability in almost every category when you look at his worst in a particular category over the last 5 years.

For me he isnt someone I trust 100% but I like the trendlines since his arrival in AZ and so for me, I would think I would be on board with him, not ridiculously early, but early enough to secure him at 2B, which as you say can be very thin if things break wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting note about this guy. Did 2 Yahoo Mock Draft last night he got drafted before Peds & Kinsler as a 2nd best overall second baseman. 12 team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow - I personally couldn't see myself taking Hill over Pedroia... probably not over Kipnis either. And while I'm not a big Kinsler guy, the appeal of a guy like Hill is the massive risk-based discount in his price, which is completely shot if he's taken ahead of those guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he repeats last year which is good stuff. Arizona agrees with him. Hitting in the three hole as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In September of 2011 and throughout 2012, Hill showed that he was comfortable in Arizona. He got off to a bit of a slow start last season, but nothing horrible. What's encouraging is his splits: no massive lefty/righty problem, no home/away difference to speak of, and pretty much the same kind of production every month except April/May. He just seems like he's finally gotten past the concussions and fighting his way back, and he's settled into his game. It's good to see because his career was on a positive track before he was derailed by an injury that can't be fixed by surgery and rehab. He's one of those player's who's easy to root for even of he's not on your fantasy team.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll probably end up with Aaron Hill in some leagues this season I have him rated as the #4 2B and closer to Pedroia/Kinsler than to Kipnis/Phillips. Not a guy I'll reach for, but if he fall to the 5th/6th I could see myself snagging him, with an even greater chance of me owing him in an auction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very curious about hill especially since I am looking for a bit more upside over lets say a Zobrist with my 5th round pick. Hill is smashing the ball this spring and has the very coveted third spot in the order for fantasy purposes. Other then Pedroia and Cano he is the next in line to hold that mantra. I just got done reading this article and feel pretty good about taking him over the likes of Zobrist-Kipnis-Phillips. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19705 I actually truly believe that Don Baylor fixed him and with the new contract and comfort he may be in for a few more seasons like 2012. Was wondering what the thoughts are and if anyone is starting to get bullish with draft day nearing? It always seems like the slightest changes bring a player to there full potential ala Mr. Bautista.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had this bum the year he hit 36 bombs. It was an amazing ride for a waiver find. I was high on him the following year and he burned me big time. I have stayed away since but this year has changed. I picked him up with my 6th pick in a 12 teamer. For some reason I actually believe he has put it all together. If you look at his stats over the last 4 years he seems pretty consistent as a hitter and has just had a stroke of bad luck. I think what we have here is a legitimate 270 2b with 25+ homer ability and 10-15 steals. I think in AZ he has really figured things out and now that he is in the 3 spot I am expecting big returns. I'm probably crazy cause I see him with upside to be #2 2b in mlb this year if all goes right. I'm riding this ship till I sink.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've done a lot of research on my own on 2n this year and I've concluded that hill in the 5/6 rounds is the best bang for your buck. I am targeting him heavily. He's 30, in his prime, in the middle of a good lineup and in a hitters park. There are a lot of positives in his favor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drafted him too. I wasn't thrilled about it, but it might be one of those picks where you take a guy and you're not happy about it, but it ends up working out. Too many sour memories from his Blue Jays days. That was an interesting article about Baylor changing his batting stance.

I think Arizona is generally one of the better run teams in the MLB. If they felt Hill was worth $40 million, then I feel inclined to trust their judgment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since Aaron Hill has arrived in the Snake Pit all he has done is hit. Before he was traded from Toronto in 2011 he was hitting a measly

.225/.270/.313 and once he arrived in Arizona he hit .315/.386/.492 to only follow that up with last years gem. This fangraphs post from late 2012 says the rest for me.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aaron-hill-and-the-quietly-great-season/

Also, this is on a slightly related topic, but Aaron Hills potential infield partner SS Didi Gregorious seems to be having one hell of a spring training and from what I remember he was good in the WBC as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm all in, have him on 3 teams, looking to get him on a fourth this Sunday. His outlier season is 2011 and folks still seem to be skittish about taking him in the top 90 picks so he's constantly available at the end of Round 6.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HBP on the hand? Please no...no broken bones.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ack. Anyone watching? Did it look bad or did he look okay and just being removed as a precaution?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn I just drafted him an hour ago and now this. GRRRRRRREAT!

Fingers crossed that it's just precautionary. Not watching, so can't comment on whether or not he displayed any anguish or wanted to stay in the game but they took him out as a precaution. Anyone watching that game?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hit on left pinky. Says he is fine.

Love twitter. Please stay fine Aaron!

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites