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Fernando Rodney 2013 Outlook

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If you (or I) draft him, no -- if you (or I) pass on him, yes.....................

hard to expect that he'll be that good again, but top 10 closer seems realistic

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I'll be passing on him for sure. That season came out of nowhere and he doesn't have a track record that says repeat. The inflated price tag and the unknown is more than enough for me to pass on.

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Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers. i.e in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

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Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers. i.e in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

I don't know if anyone can replicate his numbers last year. They were historic.

The real question is how far does he decline? To a 2.5 ERA? 3? 3.5?

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Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers. i.e in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

I don't know if anyone can replicate his numbers last year. They were historic.

The real question is how far does he decline? To a 2.5 ERA? 3? 3.5?

It's funny, RW's draft guide suggests that his ERA could quintuple from last season, and for any other guy, that would be a nightmare. For Rodney, it means going from 0.60 to 3.00.

I think the truth is in between, and even if he does hover around 3.00, it's not a killer, unless he's blowing saves in the process. As offered in the Closer thread, there has been analysis into Rodney's historic season and it's about as close to being repeatable as you can get in sports: http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=330198&st=20#entry3282742

He will slide in drafts, simply because people don't trust him, but I'm all in.

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Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers. i.e in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

I don't know if anyone can replicate his numbers last year. They were historic.

The real question is how far does he decline? To a 2.5 ERA? 3? 3.5?

It's funny, RW's draft guide suggests that his ERA could quintuple from last season, and for any other guy, that would be a nightmare. For Rodney, it means going from 0.60 to 3.00.

I think the truth is in between, and even if he does hover around 3.00, it's not a killer, unless he's blowing saves in the process. As offered in the Closer thread, there has been analysis into Rodney's historic season and it's about as close to being repeatable as you can get in sports: http://forums.rotowo...20#entry3282742

He will slide in drafts, simply because people don't trust him, but I'm all in.

Yes sir. I will take him around 100 every chance I get. Something special happened when he went to the Rays. Jim Hickey maybe?

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It's almost like Rodney is being undervalued/underrated in rankings this season based on the fact he's going to "regress".

Had a historic season and he's rated below the top 100 in mocks? I'll take Rodney in the 10th round if people are that afraid of him.

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Reminds me of Brad Lidge's 2008 season. Lidge had an amazing year, but he got stupid lucky in a lot of respects. Stat correction for the ages the following year.

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As a Tiger fan, I watched him have close to zero control. Was happy when he went to LA, and even have less control. Dude isn't exactly young. I'm on the 1 year fluke bad wagon. No way he comes close to making the AS game.

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what if he pulls a Bautista and pulls the same numbers and like, 55SV? I could see many people just /e-suiciding for passing lol

I'm not sold on him though, not with those career numbers; and I owned him last year when I picked him up from FA as I needed a closer hah

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Everybody keeps citing his career numbers. He made some pretty significant changes in his delivery before last season (much like the aforementioned Bautista before he broke out). You can't just dismiss him due to his horrid career numbers. The guy is a (very) different pitcher now.

But I'm glad people think this way. It got me a nice price on Bautista a few years ago, and is getting me a nice price on the guy who had the lowest ERA in MLB history last year. Yes, please.

Now, I'm certainly not saying he's going to have a sub-1.00 ERA again this year...but I do think he'll repeat as an elite closer.

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Jake McGee will be closing by the end of the year. But go ahead and buy.

Barring injury, the only thing McGee will be closing is the bullpen door after Rodney leaves to shut down another 9th inning.

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Everybody keeps citing his career numbers. He made some pretty significant changes in his delivery before last season (much like the aforementioned Bautista before he broke out). You can't just dismiss him due to his horrid career numbers. The guy is a (very) different pitcher now.

But I'm glad people think this way. It got me a nice price on Bautista a few years ago, and is getting me a nice price on the guy who had the lowest ERA in MLB history last year. Yes, please.

Now, I'm certainly not saying he's going to have a sub-1.00 ERA again this year...but I do think he'll repeat as an elite closer.

Umm, you can't dismiss his horrid career numbers???huh? What else is there to go on? At his age, and past history, I think the odds are that he resorts back to his career numbers, rather than his one magical year. Jmo. Even Brady Anderson hit 50 hr one year. He is already kept and owned in my league. I will just sit back and watch the implosion.

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Everybody keeps citing his career numbers. He made some pretty significant changes in his delivery before last season (much like the aforementioned Bautista before he broke out). You can't just dismiss him due to his horrid career numbers. The guy is a (very) different pitcher now.

But I'm glad people think this way. It got me a nice price on Bautista a few years ago, and is getting me a nice price on the guy who had the lowest ERA in MLB history last year. Yes, please.

Now, I'm certainly not saying he's going to have a sub-1.00 ERA again this year...but I do think he'll repeat as an elite closer.

Umm, you can't dismiss his horrid career numbers???huh? What else is there to go on? At his age, and past history, I think the odds are that he resorts back to his career numbers, rather than his one magical year. Jmo. Even Brady Anderson hit 50 hr one year. He is already kept and owned in my league. I will just sit back and watch the implosion.

So did you not understand the part about him changing his delivery significantly and why that's important, or did you simply ignore it?

Everybody always cites Brady Anderson. We already know why he had that season...roids. It completely baffles me why people continue to bring up that season when it is easily explainable and was not simply an anomalous season in comparison to his other seasons. It was steroid fueled, period.

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Rodney and Eckersley were both 35 when they did amazing

The year following his amazing year, Ecker racked up 43 saves, but a 3 era, and then the years after well...yeah...old age was showing

The difference between the two? Ecker was actually GOOD before his historic year...Rodney was not

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You guys are arguing semantics. His peripherals are were much improved last year; he was like a completely different pitcher. I would think that part of his game is sustainable. What isn't sustainable is:

1. His BABIP, which at .220, was the 5th lowest among qualified relievers

2. His LOB%, which was 4th highest

3. His HR/FB rate, which was 8th lowest

Will you be able to weather the ups and downs of a 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP season? Knowing this board, I expect the answer to be a resounding "no"

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You guys are arguing semantics. His peripherals are were much improved last year; he was like a completely different pitcher. I would think that part of his game is sustainable. What isn't sustainable is:

1. His BABIP, which at .220, was the 5th lowest among qualified relievers

2. His LOB%, which was 4th highest

3. His HR/FB rate, which was 8th lowest

Will you be able to weather the ups and downs of a 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP season? Knowing this board, I expect the answer to be a resounding "no"

3.3 and 1.22 seems like a reasonable projection (I was thinking more along 1.25-1.28 but 3-3.1 era). Which is decent, but not at the ADP he is going at.

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So Rodney...a save in the championship tonight, and the 7G he pitched prior to that: 6.1IP, 6SV, 0.63WHIP, 0 ERA....

Damn...

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, April 7, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

Mark Reynolds: "So Fernando, guess what?"

Fernando Rodney: "What man, what?"

Carlos Santana: "I put the 'the' in Pyshotherapist"

KA-BOOM

And he's back all (Rodney)

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