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ssmarsh

Justin Masterson 2013 Outlook

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Nervous. Especially as a Tribe fan. After 2011 I was really hoping he would make the next jump to being a top 20 pitcher. Instead he reverted back to being an SP3 type of guy. I was then optimistic about a comeback, but the numbers worry me a bit

His 3 years with the Tribe (Only 3 seasons as a full-time starter):

10- 17.5 K%, 9.1 BB%, 10.0 HR/FB%, 66.6 LOB%

11- 17.4 K%, 7.2 BB%, 6.3 HR/FB%, 72.9 LOB%

12- 17.6 K%, 9.7 BB%, 11.4 HR/FB%, 66.4 LOB%

The main number that is very concerning to me is the LOB%. Typically, a 66% strand rate would be considered unsustainable. That was second worst in the MLB last season. But when you consider 2010's total, and the fact that in 2009 when he made 42 appearances (16 starts) and held a 68.6 LOB% over 129.1 IP, it starts becomes very concerning that he might just not know how to pitch with runners on base.

He is still young and could easily turn things around, and as a Tribe fan I am really hoping he does, but so far 2011 is looking like the outlier season, not last year.

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Yeah, those are my concerns as well. I have him for $1 in a 10 team AL only and he's on my keeper bubble. He may be Cleveland's #1, but he's really a #3 or #4 pitcher.

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For a buck he's certainly worth a flier. He's demonstrated the skills to be a better pitcher, so he owns them and they could resurface at any time. He absolutely has to harness his command to expect to find his way back to that performance level, no doubt. Is there anything going on with the Tribe this year you could point to that would give us hope he can rediscover throwing strikes?

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Well, there's an entirely new coaching staff in Cleveland so it's anyone's guess how that will impact masterson's performance. Right now it's wait and see as the spring progresses. I don't have to submit my keeper list until April 3rd (we draft the first Saturday after the season starts) so I'll get to see him make one start before having to decide.

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Just read the article on Fangraphs about Masterson, and how he pitches to a far more unfavorable strike zone then league average. Now this is just of actual strikes and expected strikes, but it gives good indication that in part some of his troubles are just bad luck and unfavorable strike zones. They say part of it could be the framing of the catchers or just the way he pitches, although this leads nothing to an improvement this year it leads some area for if these numbers were normalize out to league average its likely his stats would improve.

That being said I like Masterson to post around 12-13 wins 3.90-4.10 era 200ip 160-170k 1.25-1.30 whip

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In the line for the W. not his best stuff but he did face a stacked Jays team (minus Lawrie) and gave up only 1 run. I watched and he got lucky on a few plays but overall a solid start. Being a Jays fan this was the one game I didn't want him to win

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Looked great today. I think he's a very good bounceback candidate this year and own him in multiple leagues already.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, April 7, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

Added him, He looks great

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drafted him in both my leagues late. All the makings of a great year were there. Having Tito there was the icing on the cake.

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So what do we think of this guy now? Looked good today. Beat both last year's Cy Young winners in his first 2 starts of this year.

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My main concern for him is walks and his ability to get lefties out. 7 walks through 13 innings is concerning.

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My main concern for him is walks and his ability to get lefties out. 7 walks through 13 innings is concerning.

He's had two bad innings where he's lost his release point. Today it was in the first inning. He worked out of that jam and was lights-out afterwards.

Favorable schedule next five starts: CWS, BOS, @CWS, @ KC, MIN

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I was wrong about him. He's a must-own. The walks will begin to catch up with him but he looks very good

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I think pitching in the 35 degree weather is good for his heavy two seemer.

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Jeez, i was hoping for the best when I picked up Masterson prior to the season starting but this is amazing. So far, all 3 starts have been on the road and he's been total domination.

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I don't mind a pitcher's duel but this is an incredibly boring game to watch tonight.

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Jeez, i was hoping for the best when I picked up Masterson prior to the season starting but this is amazing. So far, all 3 starts have been on the road and he's been total domination.

Wuz @ home tonight

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Jeez, i was hoping for the best when I picked up Masterson prior to the season starting but this is amazing. So far, all 3 starts have been on the road and he's been total domination.

Wuz @ home tonight

Yes, indeed it wuz.

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