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WahooManiac

Ryan Howard 2013 Outlook

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Well, if anyone here was hoping to get a decent value on him this year with a possible rebound season, this just ruined your day

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/ryan-howard-most-under-appreciated-undervalued-name-fantasy-182356577--mlb.html

Personally, Im not sold on the big rebound, as he hasnt hit a hook in awhile now with any authority. Seem to remember an article some time back referencing Howard as one of the most "figured out" hitters due to the new pitch f/x type data the rest of the league had on him. Ill try to find it again if I can, but what does the community think of him?

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I think he will be good this year. Not great, but he will be good and undervalued that you could probably get him cheap in auction or late in standard.

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I'll like him a lot more if revere leads off and Rollins hits behind him. Otherwise it'll probably be ruf, revere, Dom brown or chooch hitting behind him.

I'm still skeptical that Charlie will demote Jimmy from leadoff full time, with his love for veterans.

The one spring game I watched though revere led off with an infield single, stole 2nd, and scored on a base hit. Hopefully Charlie was watching.

I guess they could hit young 5th and revere Rollins 1-2 that seems unlikely to me though.

This looks like their ideal lineup to me...

Revere

Young

Utley

Howard

Rollins

Ruf

Chooch

Brown

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The dumbest and probably the worst contract in all of baseball. Thank God none of that matters and hopefully he's "solid" when it comes to fantasy numbers this year.

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Genuine power usually is the hardest thing to find on the wire. If it's there at all, it's usually ugly, warty power, Mark Reynolds stuff that makes you hurt elsewhere to get it.

So if I can pick up 30 HR from an unsexy veteran guy with a mid-late draft pick or low teens auction price, I'm very happy to do it. I'll gladly let other folks in the league chase/overspend on whatever this year's equivalent of 2012 Eric Hosmer, 2011 Brandon Belt, or whatever other hype train "can't miss prospect!!!" (the kind that, frequently, misses) they want to overlook that unsexy veteran for.

Also helping to keep Howard's price down is the abundance of other good to great 1B picks out there.

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Genuine power usually is the hardest thing to find on the wire. If it's there at all, it's usually ugly, warty power, Mark Reynolds stuff that makes you hurt elsewhere to get it.

So if I can pick up 30 HR from an unsexy veteran guy with a mid-late draft pick or low teens auction price, I'm very happy to do it. I'll gladly let other folks in the league chase/overspend on whatever this year's equivalent of 2012 Eric Hosmer, 2011 Brandon Belt, or whatever other hype train "can't miss prospect!!!" (the kind that, frequently, misses) they want to overlook that unsexy veteran for.

Also helping to keep Howard's price down is the abundance of other good to great 1B picks out there.

That sounds an awfully lot like how I feel about Howard.

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Genuine power usually is the hardest thing to find on the wire. If it's there at all, it's usually ugly, warty power, Mark Reynolds stuff that makes you hurt elsewhere to get it.

So if I can pick up 30 HR from an unsexy veteran guy with a mid-late draft pick or low teens auction price, I'm very happy to do it. I'll gladly let other folks in the league chase/overspend on whatever this year's equivalent of 2012 Eric Hosmer, 2011 Brandon Belt, or whatever other hype train "can't miss prospect!!!" (the kind that, frequently, misses) they want to overlook that unsexy veteran for.

Also helping to keep Howard's price down is the abundance of other good to great 1B picks out there.

That sounds an awfully lot like how I feel about Howard.

Well, Howard's career BA is .271, and the only season he ever hit below .251 is last season, when his Achilles was still a mess. Reynolds, on the other hand, is a career .235 BA guy who has only batted above .240 twice in six seasons, including a .198, .221, and .221 in his last three. So I think there's a huge difference between the two. But that perception and over-impression based on last season, is exactly what will keep his price depressed for 2013 drafts.

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He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average. He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average. Meh.

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He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average. He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average. Meh.

what about if the league tracks BB and OPS too?

I'm kind of on the fence with perhaps targetting Howard late

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I know its February 28th, but a bomb off of Kimbrel???

Big Piece is showing me a little something this spring

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He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average. He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average. Meh.

As for the slowest have you ever watched Konerko and Dunn do the bases

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i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

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Did you ever watch that clip of howard legging out a double in 2012? I know he was lame on his ankle but he literally looked like he had mo vaugn strapped to his back as he was running.

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I know its February 28th, but a bomb off of Kimbrel???

Big Piece is showing me a little something this spring

and hitting 500 so far

I'm trying to remember this one stat..but it was if a player gets 50AB in spring training and hits .200+ higher in I think OPS during that time, there's a 60% chance he has a break out year...it was something along those lines....

I'm at work, but I believe I have the link at home. Bautista was one of those that fell into this 60% thing. This is why I'm carefully looking at Prince Fielder this spring.

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i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

Yeah he scored 100 runs when he was driving himself in 50 times, when he was in his 20's and not a rapidly aging 1st basemen who has a declining walk rate, who was in what was once a fearsome lineup, and is coming off a friggin TORN ACHILLES. Did you see him run last year? It was painful to watch. His runs scored stats from 3 years ago is irrelevant to projecting them this year.

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i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

You're actually even underselling him. He's averaged 98 runs per 162 games in his career. His career low in runs in any full season is 81.

It's just amazing how fast people's memories are influenced by one bad year, in which he was returning from a horrible injury. If Wombat's 65 R, .240 BA prediction comes true, they would be significantly below his career worsts for a full season in both categories.

He's no longer a 45 HR/140 RBI lock, like he was from 2006-2009. But you don't have to pay for that, either.

A guy who (if healthy, and looks to be in ST) carries a .250 BA, 80 R as a bearish estimate with a very likely 30 HR, 100 RBI attached? In the low teens auction price / 110-120ish ADP? Sounds good to me.

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I know its February 28th, but a bomb off of Kimbrel???

Big Piece is showing me a little something this spring

and hitting 500 so far

I'm trying to remember this one stat..but it was if a player gets 50AB in spring training and hits .200+ higher in I think OPS during that time, there's a 60% chance he has a break out year...it was something along those lines....

I'm at work, but I believe I have the link at home. Bautista was one of those that fell into this 60% thing. This is why I'm carefully looking at Prince Fielder this spring.

Yep. It's not really applicable to current stars, more so for breakout potential.

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i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

You're actually even underselling him. He's averaged 98 runs per 162 games in his career. His career low in runs in any full season is 81.

It's just amazing how fast people's memories are influenced by one bad year, in which he was returning from a horrible injury. If Wombat's 65 R, .240 BA prediction comes true, they would be significantly below his career worsts for a full season in both categories.

He's no longer a 45 HR/140 RBI lock, like he was from 2006-2009. But you don't have to pay for that, either.

A guy who (if healthy, and looks to be in ST) carries a .250 BA, 80 R as a bearish estimate with a very likely 30 HR, 100 RBI attached? In the low teens auction price / 110-120ish ADP? Sounds good to me.

His last full season was 2011. He hit .253 and scored 81 runs. And that was when he was 2 years younger, in what was a superior lineup to what he is in now, and before he had a torn achilles. His career averages are totally irrelevant he isn't the same player anymore. He's on a 4 year decline in OPS, last year his strikeout and walk rates were horrific. Maybe those estimates are overly pessimistic by a few runs and points, I dunno. I just think there are a lot of players similar to what he is at this point. Adam Laroche, Josh Willingham, Mark Trumbo, etc. There is value in 30 home runs for sure, but he's just not someone I am excited about targeting in the middle or middle-late rounds.

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He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average. He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average. Meh.

Again another guy who really doesnt watch Howard, cause if you did you would have noticed that he shed ALOT of weight, almost 20 lbs. And a .240 avg?

come one people, watch the games and highlights on MLB Network before making dumb predictions.

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I watch games, and I live in Philly. Saying Howard will put up R numbers anything close to his prime is a joke. Let me spell it out in small words:

The. Guy. Can't. Run.

What he did 4 years ago is irrelevant.

The funny thing is, the "haters" in this thread are actually saying he could go .240-35-100, and yet for the kook aid drinkers they take the behrens stance that he somehow has a ceiling of 2006 Ryan Howard, and that I don't buy.

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No prediction is dumb with Howard including he gets hurt and puts up only 15 bombs this season. But with that line up, his age, his trending down before the injury, he's not going to be elite in runs and maybe avg too. This isn't an insult, it's a conservative prediction.

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Howard just SMASHED that ball now...then again, it was Cecil...and he had a 4pitch walk prior to that...texted my buddy after that walk saying "Home run next lol" haha

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