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jackmurphy

2013 "Safe" Picks

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Is there such thing as drafting a "safe" team?

I was looking for a discussion about "safe" fantasy players this year. I know there is no such thing as a safe pick per say, but some players do carry more risk than others.

I'd like some examples from each round of "safe" value - guys that will perform but aren't the sexy picks.

I think these types of players are overlooked, because everyone is always trying to get the upside/value guys.

Examples would be guys that rarely get hurt, older guys who consistently perform, and overlooked players in the draft because they aren't the "sexy" picks.

Some strong fantasy contributors may fall in the draft because people get so caught up in drafting high upside players.

If mods determine this is bench coach material, I understand. But I think this could be a highly valuable thread.

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Matt Holliday is a player that comes to mind. He isn't very sexy of a pick but you know he will put up the numbers

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I think Choo fits the bill too. He's being drafted in the 6th-7th round and will most likely hit above .280 and go 20/20. Not to mention he's now hitting in a better lineup.

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Paul Konerko totally gets under valued year after year. He is slowly down some but should have at least one more good season left in him.

Aramis Ramirez is another one though with a small caveat. He isn't "safe" as in he will produce at high levels throughout the season. But he is "safe" in that he consistently starts out slow then catches on fire and can carry a club the second half of a season.

James Shields has been one of the more consistent pitchers over the years but isn't considered a sexy one for some reason.

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For quantifiable reliability, I'd look at the RazzSteamer projections (available here) and sort by reliability. Top hitters (at least for reliability) look like Andrus, Cabrera, McCutch, Zobrist, Braun, Fielder, Cano, Pujols, Butler, and Bourn. Seems about right to me.

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Billy Butler-- every year I somehow overlook the dude on draft day and every year regret it. Fat boy (weren't people calling him Country Breakfast last year? :D ) can flat out wail at the plate.

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ryan braun without a doubt eventhough some doubt.

This is just some excellent insight here, guys. Thanks for taking the time to post this, ballfan. I don't think anyone would have thought of Braun. :rolleyes:

Can't believe we have made it this far without mentioned LaRoche. You can get him in like the 15th round and he is gonna hit 25+HR, 90RBI, 80R and .265.

Another one is Yo Gallardo. Last 4 years almost identical and the guy is only 27 years old. Money in the bank for 190IP, 15W, 3.60 ERA, 1.30WHIP, 200Ks. I think he can improve on those numbers this year, too.

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you said "safe pick" braun is the safest. laroche is no lock for them numbers.

Here is the OP's request: "I'd like some examples from each round of "safe" value - guys that will perform but aren't the sexy picks."

As the #1 pick, Braun is not a value pick in any way and he is definitely a "sexy" pick. And you're right, LaRoche is not a lock, but he is as close as anyone and certainly fits the description of what jackmurphy is hoping to discuss. Highlighting Braun does no one any good, but thanks for trying, I guess.

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Matt Cain to me seems like the kind of guy whose picture you would find in the dictionary under "safe" pick. The guy is a reliable rock, never gets hurt puts up solid but not quite elite level numbers year in and year out, but in general I think is undervalued because he isnt a 200K guy and his run support through the years has cost him wins, but to me is a a "safe" pick.

Paul Konerko is one who is pretty safe and always undervalued.

Miguel Montero is kind of your safe play at Catcher.

Aramis Ramirez at 3B.

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Holliday & A-Ram are great mentions & a couple of guys that came to mind when I saw this thread.

I know he's iffy to be ready for the opener but I always seem to end up with Corey Hart & he's generally pretty solid year in & year out.

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Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.

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Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.

You could also take a risk with a guy like Harper in the second and follow him up with a Holliday type player in the third or fourth and have a solid OF forming. I like to mix safe picks and those high upside guys

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Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.

You could also take a risk with a guy like Harper in the second and follow him up with a Holliday type player in the third or fourth and have a solid OF forming. I like to mix safe picks and those high upside guys

I think what klove said is spot on. You want several of the safe guys on your team in case your high upside risky guys flame out. I think its important to have a balance.

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I think Mat Latos is one of the few that offer a very safe line with room to grow still only about 25 years old.

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Catcher: None

1B: Swisher, Teixeira, Butler, Konerko, Pujols, Freeman

2B: Cano, Kendricks, Phillips, Walker, Zobrist,

SS: Castro, Zobrist, A. Escobar, A. Ramirez, Andrus

3B: Miggy

OF: Swisher, Bourn, Holliday, A. Jones, BJ Upton, Bruce

SP: Cain, Gio Gonz, Hamels, Felix, Kershaw, Verlander, Latos, Price, CC Sab, Shields, Weaver, Mad Bum, Greinke, Gallardo, Lee, Buerhle, Burnett, Cahill

RP: Papelbon, Johnson, Motte, Kimbrel

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The best answer is NO ONE. Every year, guys who are rock solid and safe end up hurt or sucking. Roy Halladay last year was money in the bank for 230+ great innings right?

But I understand the premise of the thread. The guy that pops into my head right away is Prince Fielder, dude plays 162 games EVERY YEAR. Most durable player in the league.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, March 3, 2013 - He offers the very same musings in a few BC posts, so this question is ill-disguised. · Report post

Would Bryce Harper in the 2nd round of a 12 teamer be considered "safe"?

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Billy Butler-- every year I somehow overlook the dude on draft day and every year regret it. Fat boy (weren't people calling him Country Breakfast last year? :D ) can flat out wail at the plate.

Country Biscuit is the moniker, and even Ron Shandler says this guy should be pictured in the dictionary under "professional hitter". Safe and sound as they come.
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Can't say that there is any safe pick, Guys get hurt every year that were never hurt before. The safest way to draft is to put all your eggs in one players basket, don't over pay for any one guy. Spend in the beginning, then be a spectator and then spend late, focus on hitting and closer or 2 and one stud pitcher then fill in your pitching during the year. SAFE no such thing

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Billy Butler-- every year I somehow overlook the dude on draft day and every year regret it. Fat boy (weren't people calling him Country Breakfast last year? :D ) can flat out wail at the plate.

Country Biscuit is the moniker, and even Ron Shandler says this guy should be pictured in the dictionary under "professional hitter". Safe and sound as they come.

lol Country Biscuit is even better, Butler just jumped up a notch on my draft board for that alone

And agree with klove and others, the 'safe' picks should be mixed in with the riskier picks and out-and-out fliers/projections/gut picks. Like wombat said, the idea of 'safe' is still just an idea, ya never know, the evil injury gods are always lurking, the worst drafts ever had were the times tried to stay 'safe' through entire draft, ended up with bad, boring teams that had to rebuild completely in June

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