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Ryan81

Matthew Stafford 2013 Season Outlook

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This guy almost topped 5k yards again but didn't have the TDs to go with it. It was a decent campaign, but he definitely didn't live up to his hype.

This is going to be the QB I target the most this year. He has decent targets with Megatron, Broyles when he returns and his two TEs. With the quarterbacks being plentiful this year, I could see this guy falling to the 4th or maybe even 5th round with Peyton, Rodgers, Brady, Ryan, Cam, Brees, and maybe Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick going before him. That puts him somewhere around the 7th-10th QB off the board.

I think he'll be a big steal this draft.

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Absolutely. Say what you want about his throwing mechanics -- he's still going to throw a ton and his TDs have nowhere to go but up.

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I agree he will slip and be a bargain,but if he falls to the 5th your league needs to add drug testing.

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If RG3 is looking like he'll be ready to go week 1, that's another guy that probably will be drafted before Stafford. Also, if the Colts sign one of the major FA WR, then Luck could be taken before Stafford too. He will probably have an ADP of around the 9th or 10th QB off the board for 2013. That means he could easily fall to the 5th round.

I don't remember the exact # for the stat that I saw but Stafford had close to 20 potential TD's where the receiver either dropped the pass or was tackled/out of bounds at the 1 yard line. He's definitely a QB to target as the price shouldn't be too steep and the TD total should definitely increase.

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I agree he will slip and be a bargain,but if he falls to the 5th your league needs to add drug testing.

No one is saying he will fall that far. But it's very possible.

There's already 6 QBs ahead of him with another 3 that may go before him.

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I agree he will slip and be a bargain,but if he falls to the 5th your league needs to add drug testing.

No one is saying he will fall that far. But it's very possible.

There's already 6 QBs ahead of him with another 3 that may go before him.

I only put 5 guys absolutely ahead of him. Everyone after that has a lot of questions. He has great receiving options, No running game, And a terrible defense that constantly has him playing from behind. I'll be laughing all the way to the bank if he's available in the fifth.

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I agree he will slip and be a bargain,but if he falls to the 5th your league needs to add drug testing.

No one is saying he will fall that far. But it's very possible.

There's already 6 QBs ahead of him with another 3 that may go before him.

I only put 5 guys absolutely ahead of him. Everyone after that has a lot of questions. He has great receiving options, No running game, And a terrible defense that constantly has him playing from behind. I'll be laughing all the way to the bank if he's available in the fifth.

Stafford has the best WR in the game, no question. After that though, the receiving options are extremely shaky:

TYoung - nut job and gone

Burleson - old and coming off injury

Broyles - coming off another ACL blowout

Pettigrew - way too many drops

Scheffler - OK #2 TE

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Cam, PManning for sure ahead of Stafford, like you said, but I'd be shocked if at least 3 out of Kaep, RGIII, RWilson, Luck, MRyan, or Romo don't go before him too. All 6 actually have a reasonable shot to be picked before him.

We both think Stafford will be a bargain, I guess I'm just surprised that you are so shocked that he will slip in 2013 drafts. Most fantasy owners remember last year's stats and many will be enamored by the great rookie QB class of 2012 + Kaep.

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in my book, consistency is a fantasy qb's pedigree.

while Im not fond of him as a real life qb at all, his biggest red flags in fantasy are lack of consistency and health issues.

we know what hes capable of when hes healthy and teams werent as adamant to cover megatron while he was throwing tons of times with lack of a run game. great. hes shown 'it' exactly for one year in his career.

that doesn't do anything for me in his future outlook, especially if detroit finds a run game

and unlike RGIII, Cam, Kaep, Luck...he wont help you a lot in rush yards

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I really like Stafford, but I can't guarantee that he'll be a top-5 QB in 2013. Heck, I'd say the odds are much greater that he isn't in the top-5 QB's in 2013 than he is.

Honestly, for me, it comes down to the surrounding cast. If he wants to throw for 400 yards in a game, he's going to need more receivers to throw to than just Megatron. With Titus Young gone, and Broyles coming off another ACL tear, Burleson alone isn't going to cut it. A RB that can catch out of the backfield like Jahvid Best also helped keep defenses honest, and when Best took a screen pass 80-yards to the house, that helped inflate Stafford's passing stats a little bit.

I couldn't really see myself reaching for Stafford a round ahead of even Joe Flacco. Unless something changes with the makeup of that offense this season, I'd have to get Stafford at a bargain basement price in order to use him as my starter (and load up on other positions earlier in the draft).

More likely, I'd like to grab Stafford as a solid backup QB for my fantasy team, with lots of upside.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, March 5, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

I really like Stafford, but I can't guarantee that he'll be a top-5 QB in 2013. Heck, I'd say the odds are much greater that he isn't in the top-5 QB's in 2013 than he is.

Honestly, for me, it comes down to the surrounding cast. If he wants to throw for 400 yards in a game, he's going to need more receivers to throw to than just Megatron. With Titus Young gone, and Broyles coming off another ACL tear, Burleson alone isn't going to cut it. A RB that can catch out of the backfield like Jahvid Best also helped keep defenses honest, and when Best took a screen pass 80-yards to the house, that helped inflate Stafford's passing stats a little bit.

I couldn't really see myself reaching for Stafford a round ahead of even Joe Flacco. Unless something changes with the makeup of that offense this season, I'd have to get Stafford at a bargain basement price in order to use him as my starter (and load up on other positions earlier in the draft).

More likely, I'd like to grab Stafford as a solid backup QB for my fantasy team, with lots of upside.

LMFAO, for more reasons than I can list. C'MON MAN!

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Stafford as your backup? Maybe in a 4 team league. Barring injury,Stafford is a top ten QB. Case closed.

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Stafford as your backup? Maybe in a 4 team league. Barring injury,Stafford is a top ten QB. Case closed.

Oh really? Because last year, he wasn't in the top 10.

http://fantasy.nfl.com/research/scoringleaders#researchScoringLeaders=researchScoringLeaders%2C%2Fresearch%2Fscoringleaders%253Fposition%253D1%2526statCategory%253Dstats%2526statSeason%253D2012%2526statType%253DseasonStats%2526statWeek%253D17%2Creplace

QB is deep now. It could happen.

Another reason why Stafford will likely slide. That, and there were 10 other QBs who outscored him last year.

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I cannot wait for this year's drafts If Steven Jackson is an early second rounder and Stafford isn't taken as one of the top ten QBs.

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I cannot wait for this year's drafts If Steven Jackson is an early second rounder and Stafford isn't taken as one of the top ten QBs.

Heaven forbid anyone disagrees with this guy.

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I cannot wait for this year's drafts If Steven Jackson is an early second rounder and Stafford isn't taken as one of the top ten QBs.

Another Jackson (Fred) was having a great year even at 30+. If lots of RB's are grabbed in Round 1 by other teams in the draft, and there aren't many great options at RB left, I could see grabbing SJax in the early-to-mid Round 2, especially if you're determined to get a pair of solid RB's in Round 1&2 (and SJax lands somewhere good like ATL/GB).

I think Stafford's potential is easily top 10, but it's also not as bad as it was two years when Stafford was the closest thing to a lock outside the Rodgers/Brady/Brees trio (when Peyton Manning missed the season). The other bonus with Stafford that year was that he came dirt-cheap in the later rounds.

This year, the draft could go something like this:

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Peyton Manning

RGIII

Cam Newton

Russell Wilson

Matt Ryan

Michael Vick

Colin Kaepernik

Matthew Stafford

Joe Flacco

Tony Romo

That's 13 QB's, and I might have missed a couple off the top of my head.

My point is, even if you move Stafford up a couple of spots, the guy that say, reaches for RGIII (somewhere in Rounds 2-5? who knows right now) could try to take Stafford as a fallback if he has bookend'ish picks. Taking RGIII in the late 3rd and Stafford at the beginning of the 4th, something along those lines. Or whoever takes Vick in say round 5 or 6 could grab Stafford on the swing to hedge his risk. It really depends on what you want the core of your team to be like early in the draft. I could even see a guy who takes Rodgers in Round 1 picking up Stafford in say, Round 5 or 6 if he's still available and he wants to try to guarantee himself a great backup in case of a freak injury to Rodgers (or another concussion), and he doesn't see any player at another position during that round that he absolutely loves.

Some teams wait so long to take their starting QB in drafts that other teams start picking their backup QB's before those teams have even drafted their starting QB. It definitely happens.

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I can see all of those except Vick going before Stafford. Maybe not quite in the same order you had but pretty close. Thing about Wilson, Cam, Kaepernick, and RGIIII is that they will likely gain a decent amount of points each week by running the ball.

Here's how I would say the draft will go. The first two rounds will have the elite tier being picked such as Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Peyton. Then the next tier will likely be Cam, Ryan, and RGIII depending on how it's look for his return. After that I would say it's Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, and Stafford in the same group going anywhere from the 4th-6th rounds depending on how the draft is playing out. I would have to say the next group of QBs going would be Romo, Eli, Big Ben, and Luck who are still pretty decent options.

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I can see all of those except Vick going before Stafford. Maybe not quite in the same order you had but pretty close. Thing about Wilson, Cam, Kaepernick, and RGIIII is that they will likely gain a decent amount of points each week by running the ball.

(That list was basically in no particular order)

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I cannot wait for this year's drafts If Steven Jackson is an early second rounder and Stafford isn't taken as one of the top ten QBs.

Heaven forbid anyone disagrees with this guy.

On the contrary, please disagree with me. I'll love better players being pushed down to my second round slot if Jackson goes early second, And I will dance in the street if I am able to wait until the fifth round or later and still get Stafford. Fantasy football is all about capitalizing on mistakes.

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I couldn't really see myself reaching for Stafford a round ahead of even Joe Flacco. Unless something changes with the makeup of that offense this season, I'd have to get Stafford at a bargain basement price in order to use him as my starter (and load up on other positions earlier in the draft).

More likely, I'd like to grab Stafford as a solid backup QB for my fantasy team, with lots of upside.

I think I need to amend this. When I posted that, I knew Flacco had an arm, and could have a good passing game when he needed to, and they did open up that offense towards the mid/end of the season.

However, when I posted that, I kind of assumed that Flacco had thrown for at LEAST 4,000 yards last season (I'd actually ballparked 4,200-4,500 as my assumed number for his 2012 passing yards).

I just looked up the actual stats today when I was doing some QB research and was appalled to find out that in reality he'd thrown for just 3,817 yards (his career BEST...) and just 22 passing TD's [+3 rushing TDs] (his career best being 25 passing TD's in 2010).

Now, I do believe that Flacco has the arm strength to throw for big yards. Also, if you look at his playoff/super bowl (post-season) numbers from 2012 alone, they extrapolate to 44 passing TDs and 4,560 passing yards over the course of a 16-game spread. So I won't fully backpedal on me saying that Flacco definitely has upside, but my confidence that he reaches those numbers is certainly not there after realizing that he's never actually thrown for even 4,000 passing yards in a single regular season.

However, there's also the fact that needs to be noted, Flacco did get rested during the Week 17 game in 2012, he threw just 4 passes for 34 yards that week. Having a full game that week likely would have put him over 4,000 passing yards for the season.

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was fired after the Week 14 game, so Week 15 and Week 16 were under the direction of the new offensive coordinator, Jim Caldwell. If we factor those two weeks together with the postseason, those numbers extrapolate out to 40 passing TDs [+2.67 rushing TDs ... roughly 3 rushing TDs] and 4,541 passing yards. Now, we know Anquan Boldin is gone, so that could definitely cause those extrapolated numbers to fall short, as he did produce 473 yards of Joe Flacco's 1,703 passing yards during those 6 weeks. That's almost 28% of Flacco's passing yardage was to Boldin during those 6 games.

Unless 6'5" Tommy Streeter (4.40 40-yard dash at Combine) really comes out the gates strong and wins the starting job opposite Torrey Smith, I think Joe Flacco's chances of achieving (or surpassing) 4,500 passing yards during the regular season is a longshot. I'm not entirely sold on Jacoby Jones, so unless Tommy Streeter is on the radar, I'd much rather have Stafford who has basically put up back-to-back 5,000 yard seasons (technically he was 33 yards short of 5,000 last season, but I don't think any of us really cares about those 33 yards - rounding up in this scenario is perfectly legit imo since he's previously broken the 5K passing barrier the season prior).

We also know that Megatron had some flukiness / bad luck going on last season with the passing TDs, getting stopped just barely short of the goal-line many times early in the season. I mean, how else do you explain him having 12, 5, 12, 16 TDs the previous 4 seasons, then suddenly breaking the freaking receiving yards record, yet only getting 5 total TDs? Fluky. Totally fluky. And that affected Stafford's passing TD's for the season stats, obviously.

Assuming Megatron puts up at least double digit TD's next season, that would boost Stafford's total number of TD's to 29 compared to 24 this past season. That's essentially a FLOOR of 29 TD's. I'll take that in a heartbeat beyond the 3rd round.

If Megatron puts up 12 TDs (which he'd done in 3 of the past 4 seasons before last season), Stafford's looking at ~31 total TD's.

Factor in the addition of Reggie Bush and I'd say that 30 TDs is now officially Stafford's floor, even if they struggle to field some new WR's to help offset the question marks facing Burleson and Broyles. Why?

In 2012, we saw the unexplained benching of Kevin Smith after the Week 1 game.

In 2010, Jahvid Best had 4 rushing TD's and 2 receiving TD's while mostly in the role of the Lion's feature back (I say mostly because he started only 9 of 16 games because he fought through most of the season with a bad case of turf toe: http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2010). That season he had 58 receptions for 487 receiving yards and 2 TDs. While playing pretty much the entire season with a bad case of turf toe.

Oh, and in 2010, Kevin Smith added 11 receptions for 123 receiving yards as well.

In 2011, he lasted less than 6 full games, and still had 27 receptions for 287 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD (multiple concussions ended this season).

Kevin Smith came off the street mid-2011 and started Week 11, adding an additional 179 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs before the regular season was over.

So basically, a tattered RB corps for the Lions put up 610 and 466 receiving yards, while playing injured / missing games. And those numbers are only totaling Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith's receptions and receiving yards, I didn't even add in any of the other numerous RB's that saw playing time during those two seasons.

Come 2012, Kevin Smith started off the season with decent numbers against the Rams: 13 carries, 62 rushing yards (4.8 YPC), and 4 receptions for 29 yards. 1 rushing TD + 1 receiving TD that game.

He then got 16 carries for 53 yards during Week 2's game against SF (who we all know fields one of the top rushing defenses in the NFL), and 2 receptions for 17 yards. Then the Lion's basically made him disappear, with no explanation.

In his place we got Mikel LeShoure coming off a suspension for marijuana use, as well as a torn Achilles. We got former security guard Joique Bell as the pass-catching / 3rd down back.

Bell didn't have a terrible season, 52 receptions for 485 receiving yards...but zero receiving TDs.

He (Bell) was involved in just about every game that season.

Jahvid Best's less-than-6 games in 2011 extrapolates to the following stats for a projected 16-game season (I calculated him as having played 5.75 games in 2011, since he got concussed during the 6th game):

75 receptions

798 receiving yards

3 receiving TDs (though I would definitely suggest that this particular stat is skewed low by the small sample size)

In 12.75 games in 2011, between just Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith, they put together 466 receiving yards. That extrapolates to ~585 receiving yards for a full 16 games.

For simple reference purposes, Darren Sproles receiving stats since 2008:

2008: 29 receptions / 342 receiving yards / 5 receiving TDs (Chargers)

2009: 45 receptions / 497 receiving yards / 4 receiving TDs (Chargers)

2010: 59 receptions / 520 receiving yards / 2 receiving TDs (Chargers)

2011: 86 receptions / 710 receiving yards / 7 receiving TDs (Saints)

2012: 75 receptions / 667 receiving yards / 7 receiving TDs (Saints)

I think it's safe to say that in the Lion's offense as their mostly feature RB (on passing downs which are...most downs for the Lions), as well as their 3rd down / pass-catching back, Reggie Bush should EASILY catch 50+ passes for 500+ receiving yards.

I should also note that Mikel LeShoure had 34 receptions last season for 214 receiving yards...and zero receiving TDs.

Yes, Kevin Smith started (basically played in) one game, and had more receiving TDs (1) than both Joique Bell and Mikel LeShoure combined for the entire season. Yes, that's how fluky/bad it was last season for the Lion's offense.

Also, small note:

Calvin Johnson's 2011 receiving yards:

1,681

Calvin Johnson's 2012 receiving yards:

1,964

That's a difference/increase of: 283 receiving yards

Matthew Stafford's 2011 passing yards:

5,038

Matthew Stafford's 2012 passing yards:

4,967

That's a difference/decrease of: 71 passing yards

I realize there were probably some other factors that contributed to the decrease in Stafford's overall passing yards, including receivers not named Calvin Johnson (as well as the team's TE's), but I firmly believe that severe oversight in their short area passing game (passes to the RB) were a large part of the decrease Stafford experienced.

Basically, Calvin Johnson had 283 MORE yards during a HISTORIC season even over an already dominant previous season, and yet Stafford's overall passing yardage stats actually REGRESSED.

I think that's pretty clearly why the Lions went out and signed Reggie Bush, because they knew they had to fill that void in the short area passing game.

With the addition of Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson shouldn't have to match his yardage totals from last year in order for Stafford to throw for 5K yards for basically a 3rd season in a row.

Stafford's passing/and/or/total TD's should also go back up into the 30-40 range.

Outside of Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and maaaybe Peyton Manning, Stafford to me is actual the closest thing there is to certainty for another outstanding season. I really don't have any significant doubts that he won't put up really solid stats the majority of weeks in 2013.

I think he's got a floor of 4,500-4,800 passing yards, with a relatively high chance of breaking the 5K barrier once again. You can't really ask for much more from a passing QB you can get outside of the first two rounds, unless your league's scoring settings are just drastically skewed towards rushing stats.

Let's end with this:

http://en.wikipedia....rds_in_a_season

That's the massive list of QB's that have thrown for at least 5,000 passing yards in a single season (in order of date of the season they threw for 5,000+ passing yards).

1. Dan Marino - 1984 - 5,084

2. Drew Brees - 2008 - 5,069

3. Drew Brees - 2011 - 5,476

4. Tom Brady - 2011 - 5,235

5. Matthew Stafford - 2011 - 5,038

6. Drew Brees - 2012 - 5,177

That's it.

Lastly, why don't we go into all-time?

http://www.sportscit...assing-leaders/

Top-50:

1. Drew Brees - 2011 - 5,476

2. Tom Brady - 2011 - 5,235

3. Drew Brees - 2012 - 5,177

4. Dan Marino - 1984 - 5,084

5. Drew Brees - 2008 - 5,069

6. Matthew Stafford - 2011 - 5,038

7. Matthew Stafford - 2012 - 4,967

8. Eli Manning - 2011 - 4,933

9. Tony Romo - 2012 - 4,903

10. Kurt Warner - 2001 - 4,830

Is this really even a debate any more? Back-to-back top-10 all-time single season passing yards.

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I cannot wait for this year's drafts If Steven Jackson is an early second rounder and Stafford isn't taken as one of the top ten QBs.

Heaven forbid anyone disagrees with this guy.

On the contrary, please disagree with me. I'll love better players being pushed down to my second round slot if Jackson goes early second, And I will dance in the street if I am able to wait until the fifth round or later and still get Stafford. Fantasy football is all about capitalizing on mistakes.

Stafford is nothing more than a stat compiler. If he ever gets less than 600 passing attempts, he'll disappear into the fantasy football sunset. He is an average player in an optimal situation. His receiving corps is awesome and his defense keeps them in passing situations. If the defense turns it around this year and the Reggie Bush stays healthy then get ready for sub-top 10 finish for Stafford. But everyone sees the back to back (near) 5,000 yard seasons so he'll still go top 10.

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I cannot wait for this year's drafts If Steven Jackson is an early second rounder and Stafford isn't taken as one of the top ten QBs.

Heaven forbid anyone disagrees with this guy.

On the contrary, please disagree with me. I'll love better players being pushed down to my second round slot if Jackson goes early second, And I will dance in the street if I am able to wait until the fifth round or later and still get Stafford. Fantasy football is all about capitalizing on mistakes.

Stafford is nothing more than a stat compiler. If he ever gets less than 600 passing attempts, he'll disappear into the fantasy football sunset. He is an average player in an optimal situation. His receiving corps is awesome and his defense keeps them in passing situations. If the defense turns it around this year and the Reggie Bush stays healthy then get ready for sub-top 10 finish for Stafford. But everyone sees the back to back (near) 5,000 yard seasons so he'll still go top 10.

Yeah he may be throwing the ball a lot, but you don't just stumble into throwing for 5k yards twice.

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I don't know...Stafford's pretty good, he has a cannon for an arm and you also need to remember that sure he has Tron but other then that his receiving corps isn't exactly top shelf, plus 2/3 of it was hurt or acting like a mental patient last season. In real life he's a top 10 QB and in fantasy can be top 5 easily.

That being said I wouldn't take him before the 4th round, simply because at that point I'll be into my "wait on QB" strategy, if he fell to the second half of the 5th though I'd be thrilled to take him there.

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