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clutchcityfan

Nelson Cruz 2013 Outlook

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Bill James is projecting a good season for Cruz: 80/29/94/.269/11

And his projected triple slash line: .269/.333/.489

29/11 makes him a solid OF2 with OF1 upside. Of course, you are hoping for him to stay healthy. And really, when does he stay healthy? He stayed healthy last season and was pretty mediocre. In the previous three seasons, he went down with various injuries but was pretty awesome when he did play.

Which Nelson Cruz are we going to get? Healthy and mediocre? Injured and good? Maybe even healthy and good?

I think this guy is a huge risk/reward player. He could hit 35-40 HR's. He might also be suspended for PED's. With Hamilton gone, Cruz will probably be batting fifth.

Cruz is generally being drafted as an OF3 or OF4.

My question: Avoid him for injury history and suspension risk or draft for upside?

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He was healthy last season it was one of his worst offensive years, relative to the number of plate appearances he saw. No way in hell he logs 159 games again this season. I will let another owner take the risk this time around.

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He was healthy last season it was one of his worst offensive years, relative to the number of plate appearances he saw. No way in hell he logs 159 games again this season. I will let another owner take the risk this time around.

I can definitely see the merits of that perspective. But this year, Cruz is also available at a hefty discount. The question is whether the low draft cost is enough to take the gamble on him.

Also, since I play in a league with 2 DL spots, I tend to like players like Cruz. In the past, he would only give you 120 games but would also hit 30 HR's. As long as he goes to the DL after injury, you can fill in those other 40 games with a FA outfielder. You end up getting a lot of production from that single OF spot in your lineup.

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I don't see much upside with Cruz anmore. Besides being a big perennial injury risk, he simply does not run anymore. He's got power but he'll never hit more than .265 again.

The guy goes on some crazy power surges though but also some god awful slumps.

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I don't see much upside with Cruz anmore. Besides being a big perennial injury risk, he simply does not run anymore. He's got power but he'll never hit more than .265 again.

The guy goes on some crazy power surges though but also some god awful slumps.

I agree here. He is good for 20 homers and maybe 80 RBIS, but not much more anymore. If you can get him late in drafts as a low end OF3 or OF4 then he isnt bad there. I would take him over someone like Cuddayer

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I don't see much upside with Cruz anmore. Besides being a big perennial injury risk, he simply does not run anymore. He's got power but he'll never hit more than .265 again.

The guy goes on some crazy power surges though but also some god awful slumps.

I agree here. He is good for 20 homers and maybe 80 RBIS, but not much more anymore. If you can get him late in drafts as a low end OF3 or OF4 then he isnt bad there. I would take him over someone like Cuddayer

Someone who is way cheaper and could provide better stats...Josh Willingham. Going super late but he should provide good power....

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I don't see much upside with Cruz anmore. Besides being a big perennial injury risk, he simply does not run anymore. He's got power but he'll never hit more than .265 again.

The guy goes on some crazy power surges though but also some god awful slumps.

I agree here. He is good for 20 homers and maybe 80 RBIS, but not much more anymore. If you can get him late in drafts as a low end OF3 or OF4 then he isnt bad there. I would take him over someone like Cuddayer

The reason he was valuable though is he put up those 20-25 homers and 90 RBI's in 100 games or something. Now last year he stays healthy for the first time in his career, but on a per game basis he had the worst year of his career. Go figure.

I think he's actually much more draft able this year than in years past when he was going in the 3rd round or something. He can still go on insane home run binges, and in the 10th round or something I would consider it.

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I don't see much upside with Cruz anmore. Besides being a big perennial injury risk, he simply does not run anymore. He's got power but he'll never hit more than .265 again.

The guy goes on some crazy power surges though but also some god awful slumps.

I agree here. He is good for 20 homers and maybe 80 RBIS, but not much more anymore. If you can get him late in drafts as a low end OF3 or OF4 then he isnt bad there. I would take him over someone like Cuddayer

Someone who is way cheaper and could provide better stats...Josh Willingham. Going super late but he should provide good power....

Willingham has been going about two rounds earlier than Cruz in ESPN drafts, but I do agree that Willingham will be a good source of power.

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Bill James is projecting a good season for Cruz: 80/29/94/.269/11

And his projected triple slash line: .269/.333/.489

Bill James is a notorious optimist.

That is a way way friendlier projection across the board than any other system Ive seen:

http://www.fangraphs...434&position=OF

I agree with you, and fangraphs is actually the site from which I got the projections. I was cherry-picking with the purpose of getting thoughts on how to value Cruz this season.

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With the reports of MLB targeting the HGH players and especially AROD and Braun, do you all think that Cruz may face a suspension at some point this season? The likelihood of it?

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I had him last year and by the ASB I would only start him at home against lefties which is about once a week

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Boom baby. Cruz off to a solid start this year. He could easily get 25-30 home runs and 100 RBI if he stays healthy.

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Boom baby. Cruz off to a solid start this year. He could easily get 25-30 home runs and 100 RBI if he stays healthy.

As a Cruz owner, I don't know about that. I haven't owned Cruz prior to this year but I've seen the hot and cold streaks he goes on and how frustrating it was for other owners. Does anyone agree this may be the time to sell high?

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Boom baby. Cruz off to a solid start this year. He could easily get 25-30 home runs and 100 RBI if he stays healthy.

As a Cruz owner, I don't know about that. I haven't owned Cruz prior to this year but I've seen the hot and cold streaks he goes on and how frustrating it was for other owners. Does anyone agree this may be the time to sell high?

Hitting 4th in that lineup...idk. Might be able to ride it a few more weeks.

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Boom baby. Cruz off to a solid start this year. He could easily get 25-30 home runs and 100 RBI if he stays healthy.

As a Cruz owner, I don't know about that. I haven't owned Cruz prior to this year but I've seen the hot and cold streaks he goes on and how frustrating it was for other owners. Does anyone agree this may be the time to sell high?

Hitting 4th in that lineup...idk. Might be able to ride it a few more weeks.

?

He's batting in the 6 hole...

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Boom baby. Cruz off to a solid start this year. He could easily get 25-30 home runs and 100 RBI if he stays healthy.

As a Cruz owner, I don't know about that. I haven't owned Cruz prior to this year but I've seen the hot and cold streaks he goes on and how frustrating it was for other owners. Does anyone agree this may be the time to sell high?

Hitting 4th in that lineup...idk. Might be able to ride it a few more weeks.

?

He's batting in the 6 hole...

Sorry. Godis is always on my mind.

I'd still hold for now on Cruz.

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Yeah he isn't hitting 4th other then maybe one game. He hits 6th consistently.

I have seen him miss a lot of cookies this year when I have watched his AB's. Ton's of balls he fouls off or pops up that he normally smokes into the seats. Dunno what to think of him really, last year was pretty odd since it was the first year he finally stayed healthy yet he had the worst year of his career on a per game basis. I would rather him hit the DL twice but rake when he plays then be a .260 25/90 guy in a full season.

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Just sent out a trade offer for him yesterday. Great timing. Will probably be declined now. Texas lineup is due to heat up.

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Cruz hits sometimes at 4th depending on the lefty/right matchup but 6th on other days. It's still safe to say Cruz will probably hit 20+ HR especially once the weather warms up but I just don't know if he has 30 HR ability anymore. He may be on the decline now and he doesn't have those PEDs anymore

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