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gbill2004

Alex Cobb 2013 Outlook

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Ah.... finally someone spills the beans. I was going to make a post for him, surprised that no one has yet (or talked him up as a sleeper in any of those posts). He's a guy who I am quietly targeting as an end-pick or $1-$2 auction guy, and hoping no one else notices. He could be a bargain this year, or at least for the early part of the season (unless he self-destructs during spring training or gets hurt, I think the 5th spot in the rotation is his). I'd look for a slight uptick in strikeouts from him this year.

To be honest though, I feel as if Archer holds the most upside of any of the back-end (4 and 5 guys) on the Rays' team (as far as starting pitchers who are ready or close to ready, anyway). I still cringe when I think about that Garza deal.... from the day it went down. Oh well, not to go off-topic. But he's another name to file away for draft day, as he is technically still in competition with Cobb for the 5th spot in the rotation for what it is worth. I do believe it is Cobb's to lose, and he should keep it....

I would project 10-15 wins and 150 ks if he can throw at least 170 innings this year. But I don't know how he'll hold-up or if he'll even hold onto the 5-spot (should he keep it through spring training, that is) all year.

He's an interesting flier for sure.

I am a Cubs fan and felt that the Garza deal was a really awful move (from the Cubs' standpoint), as I liked Archer a lot when the deal went down (and still do). Even though I

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But he's another name to file away for draft day, as he is technically still in competition with Cobb for the 5th spot in the rotation for what it is worth. I do believe it is Cobb's to lose, and he should keep it

Maddon has been consistent this spring that Cobb is in the rotation as the 4th starter. The 5th spot will be between Niemann and Archer, most likely Niemann if he isn't traded. Cobb is also starting to experiment with a cutter to use to lefties. While he says it feels great and that he has great control with it, it obviously is still a new pitch and will need to be monitored closely.

Man, Nick. We need to work on your post/word efficiency. It's a bullet point world..... :lol:

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One of my favorite late starting pitcher targets. I actually wrote about him briefly in the Jake Odorizzi thread. Cobb got a lot of press from fantasy sites prior to Spring Training, so it is kind of a surprise he hasn't seen any hype around here...it's probably because of his strikeout rate. And actually, if Cobb does not improve his swing strike rate, it is actually at risk of getting worse. But he had good strike out rates in the minors and I am hoping that it translates. But he is an above average ground ball pitcher, which helps him in the AL East.

As Patrick Bateman pointed out, Cobb is locked into the 4th spot of the rotation. But I thought the 5th spot was between Niemann, Hernandez (Carmona) and Archer. I think Odorizzi and Archer start the season at Triple A and wait for an injury/ineffectiveness.

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Surprisingly though, Cobb lost one-mile per hour on his fastball last year. In 2011 he was at 91.3, last year 90.3. Also in 2011 he dominated Durham ball with a low 2 ERA and last year had an ERA above 4 at Durham. I don't know why he regressed, but I hope the trend doesn't continue. (I think he is only 24..)

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But he's another name to file away for draft day, as he is technically still in competition with Cobb for the 5th spot in the rotation for what it is worth. I do believe it is Cobb's to lose, and he should keep it

Maddon has been consistent this spring that Cobb is in the rotation as the 4th starter. The 5th spot will be between Niemann and Archer, most likely Niemann if he isn't traded. Cobb is also starting to experiment with a cutter to use to lefties. While he says it feels great and that he has great control with it, it obviously is still a new pitch and will need to be monitored closely.

Man, Nick. We need to work on your post/word efficiency. It's a bullet point world..... :lol:

I don't know what a Twitter is!

Good to know Cobb has the #4 and Archer has an outside chance at the #5. I really want to find a reason to stash Archer, because I think his strikeout upside could be very good (but he will experience bumps in the road with control, I'd say). I do think he's a nice name to file away for May and beyond, though.... even if he has a better shot just competing with Jeff N.

Safer pick would be Cobb then, but I like Archer's upside a lot more. And it makes me happy to see that Cobb is going to have the #4 to himself-- I swore I had read on rotoworld's main blurbs that Cobb was competing for the #5, but maybe it was an old report.

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One of my favorite late starting pitcher targets. I actually wrote about him briefly in the Jake Odorizzi thread. Cobb got a lot of press from fantasy sites prior to Spring Training, so it is kind of a surprise he hasn't seen any hype around here...it's probably because of his strikeout rate. And actually, if Cobb does not improve his swing strike rate, it is actually at risk of getting worse. But he had good strike out rates in the minors and I am hoping that it translates. But he is an above average ground ball pitcher, which helps him in the AL East.

As Patrick Bateman pointed out, Cobb is locked into the 4th spot of the rotation. But I thought the 5th spot was between Niemann, Hernandez (Carmona) and Archer. I think Odorizzi and Archer start the season at Triple A and wait for an injury/ineffectiveness.

Yeah, Odorizzi is who I was thinking of as well. I don't believe Carmona (sorry, can't think of him as Roberto Hernandez-- in my mind, Roberto Hernandez is that old guy who closed for a million years and reminded me of Jose Mesa!) is in the running at this point, but I had read a report the Rays "liked what they see" or something. I also saw he got torched, unless I'm just getting confused with another pitcher with a similar name (perhaps a farm guy on their team I am unaware of).

I would agree with you in that Archer and Odorizzi begin the year in the minors. Dunno the specifics without looking up Carmona's deal, but if he can be cut without much loss, I would think the Rays would do that... they have enough depth where they don't need a guy like him as a long-man, taking up space on the roster. Just my two cents. (If his contract is guaranteed, obviously he's going to be put in long-relief if he doesn't win the #5, but still. That was a signing I never liked.)

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Have seen Cobb pop up on a lot of sleeper lists and seems to be having a good spring...wondering what the thoughts are out there on him?

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Have seen Cobb pop up on a lot of sleeper lists and seems to be having a good spring...wondering what the thoughts are out there on him?

Decent control, decent strikeout rate, pitches evenly against LHB and RHB, got better in the second half. But what's special about this guy is his elite ground ball rate of 59%. Of course that makes him more susceptible to BABIP, but TB has a pretty good defense. His spring performance is encouraging. Perhaps shows that he is beyond being a rookie and is ready to take the next step.

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After today's game, Cobb's got a 1.29 ERA and an 18/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings. Spring training... but still impressive.

That K/BB ratio is very impressive even if it is spring training that stat is making him rise up my draft board.

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Surprisingly though, Cobb lost one-mile per hour on his fastball last year. In 2011 he was at 91.3, last year 90.3. Also in 2011 he dominated Durham ball with a low 2 ERA and last year had an ERA above 4 at Durham. I don't know why he regressed, but I hope the trend doesn't continue. (I think he is only 24..)

That may be the case but his walks per 9 decresed from 3.9 BB/9 to 2.6 BB/9, and his k's per 9 increased from 6.3 k/9 to 7.0 k/9....those are two big factors for me when drafting young mid-late round talent.

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My projections for Cobb:

146 IP / 9 W / 3.93 ERA / 1.35 WHIP / 113 K / 6.98 Ks per 9

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Buzz is increasing here - ESPN's highlighted him in a few articles, and he went for $8 (!) in my 14-team auction last night, which I thought was absurd. Sure, he could earn that, but there's no value there IMO.

Every draft is different, honestly, and someone tried to sneak him through early in the auction when everyone had a lot of money, but still...

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Another very solid spring training outing for Cobb 6k's over 5 scoreles innings against the yanks... solid #4 in mixed leagues this yr?

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Another very solid spring training outing for Cobb 6k's over 5 scoreles innings against the yanks... solid #4 in mixed leagues this yr?

Risky #4. More like a #6 to me, with upside sure.

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Another very solid spring training outing for Cobb 6k's over 5 scoreles innings against the yanks... solid #4 in mixed leagues this yr?

Absolutely. He was a major sleeper before ST. I will reach for him if I have to.

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Another very solid spring training outing for Cobb 6k's over 5 scoreles innings against the yanks... solid #4 in mixed leagues this yr?

Absolutely. He was a major sleeper before ST. I will reach for him if I have to.

Yep, I will reach as well. Great GB rate, solid Ks (with upside) lower whip.

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Buzz is increasing here - ESPN's highlighted him in a few articles, and he went for $8 (!) in my 14-team auction last night, which I thought was absurd. Sure, he could earn that, but there's no value there IMO.

Every draft is different, honestly, and someone tried to sneak him through early in the auction when everyone had a lot of money, but still...

Went for $6 in my 12 teamer too - the buzz is palpable

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Rays traded James Shields for Wil Meyers and a plethora of others, and will replace him with a James Shields clone who will probably put up near identical numbers as him. Rays = very smart.

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Rays traded James Shields for Wil Meyers and a plethora of others, and will replace him with a James Shields clone who will probably put up near identical numbers as him. Rays = very smart.

OK, easy now...

First off, they don't even have similar pitching profiles so I don't know where "James Shields clone" comes from. Cobb is a contact ground-ball pitcher, Shields is a strikeout/fly-ball pitcher.

Second, Cobb has one 130-inning season under his belt with an ERA of 4. When he throws 6 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings with a sub-4 ERA we can start making that still inaccurate comparison

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Rays traded James Shields for Wil Meyers and a plethora of others, and will replace him with a James Shields clone who will probably put up near identical numbers as him. Rays = very smart.

OK, easy now...

First off, they don't even have similar pitching profiles so I don't know where "James Shields clone" comes from. Cobb is a contact ground-ball pitcher, Shields is a strikeout/fly-ball pitcher.

Second, Cobb has one 130-inning season under his belt with an ERA of 4. When he throws 6 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings with a sub-4 ERA we can start making that still inaccurate comparison

They are very similiar in the style of pitcher. They both have very low BB rates, and very solid K rates. Cobb coming through the minors averaged about 2.30 BB per 9 IP. James Shields coming through the minors averaged averaged just over 2 BB per 9 IP. There K rates through the minors were both over 7.5 per 9 IP. They are both primarily fastball - change up pitchers. Cobb threw his fastball 47% of the time last year, and his change up 33% of the time. Shields threw his fastball 34% of the time last year and his change up 29% of the time. Shields throws a cutter through which makes up for for the lower percentage of 4 seamers that he throws. But they both threw there curveball 18% of the time last year.

Shields career average velocity is 90.9%, Cobb 90.6. They both throw nearly the same pitch sequences, they both have very similiar velocity, they both have similiar BB and K rates throughout most stops in there careers and both guys rely on there change up as there out pitch. Both pitchers had elite change ups last year. Cobb's graded out top 10 in major league baseball in only 106 IP last year season, Shields is among the best rated every year. They are eerily similiar profile pitchers.

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Rays traded James Shields for Wil Meyers and a plethora of others, and will replace him with a James Shields clone who will probably put up near identical numbers as him. Rays = very smart.

OK, easy now...

First off, they don't even have similar pitching profiles so I don't know where "James Shields clone" comes from. Cobb is a contact ground-ball pitcher, Shields is a strikeout/fly-ball pitcher.

Second, Cobb has one 130-inning season under his belt with an ERA of 4. When he throws 6 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings with a sub-4 ERA we can start making that still inaccurate comparison

They are very similiar in the style of pitcher. They both have very low BB rates, and very solid K rates. Cobb coming through the minors averaged about 2.30 BB per 9 IP. James Shields coming through the minors averaged averaged just over 2 BB per 9 IP. There K rates through the minors were both over 7.5 per 9 IP. They are both primarily fastball - change up pitchers. Cobb threw his fastball 47% of the time last year, and his change up 33% of the time. Shields threw his fastball 34% of the time last year and his change up 29% of the time. Shields throws a cutter through which makes up for for the lower percentage of 4 seamers that he throws. But they both threw there curveball 18% of the time last year.

Shields career average velocity is 90.9%, Cobb 90.6. They both throw nearly the same pitch sequences, they both have very similiar velocity, they both have similiar BB and K rates throughout most stops in there careers and both guys rely on there change up as there out pitch. Both pitchers had elite change ups last year. Cobb's graded out top 10 in major league baseball in only 106 IP last year season, Shields is among the best rated every year. They are eerily similiar profile pitchers.

My Goodness, i think you just got told.

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Rays traded James Shields for Wil Meyers and a plethora of others, and will replace him with a James Shields clone who will probably put up near identical numbers as him. Rays = very smart.

OK, easy now...

First off, they don't even have similar pitching profiles so I don't know where "James Shields clone" comes from. Cobb is a contact ground-ball pitcher, Shields is a strikeout/fly-ball pitcher.

Second, Cobb has one 130-inning season under his belt with an ERA of 4. When he throws 6 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings with a sub-4 ERA we can start making that still inaccurate comparison

They are very similiar in the style of pitcher. They both have very low BB rates, and very solid K rates. Cobb coming through the minors averaged about 2.30 BB per 9 IP. James Shields coming through the minors averaged averaged just over 2 BB per 9 IP. There K rates through the minors were both over 7.5 per 9 IP. They are both primarily fastball - change up pitchers. Cobb threw his fastball 47% of the time last year, and his change up 33% of the time. Shields threw his fastball 34% of the time last year and his change up 29% of the time. Shields throws a cutter through which makes up for for the lower percentage of 4 seamers that he throws. But they both threw there curveball 18% of the time last year.

Shields career average velocity is 90.9%, Cobb 90.6. They both throw nearly the same pitch sequences, they both have very similiar velocity, they both have similiar BB and K rates throughout most stops in there careers and both guys rely on there change up as there out pitch. Both pitchers had elite change ups last year. Cobb's graded out top 10 in major league baseball in only 106 IP last year season, Shields is among the best rated every year. They are eerily similiar profile pitchers.

My Goodness, i think you just got told.

yes he did!

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