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ScrappyDawg

C.C. Sabathia 2013 Outlook

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What do you guys think of CC this year? He hit the DL twice last season and the Yankees have been dropping like flies this spring. I really dont think he is a lock for 15 or even 12 wins with this Yankees roster. ESPN's Matthew Berry has him ranked at #69 just ahead of the likes of Zimmerman, Latos, and Gallardo overall which I think is fair. Yahoo's composite rankings have him at the #13 overall SP infront of Dickey, Gio, Sale, and Medlen. I think that is too high.

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I can see haters .. Cc will have another ace season top 8 sp... Yanks won't be as bad as people think

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As much as I'd like to believe BkNets, I'm more inclined to side with ScrappyDawg. Being without 3 perennial All-Stars for large chunks of the season would be difficult for any team to overcome. CC has a lot of wear and tear on that arm, and he's not exactly a fitness model either. I'm genuinely down on this team for this season, and I'm about as big a Yankee homer as you'll find. I'm not going more than 14 Wins for CC as a projection, and I'd definitely take several pitchers ahead of him.

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Per RW: "fastball velocity was sluggish"

What does this mean? What was he averaging? Anyone see him today? Looks like he mainly just struggled in the 2nd inning.

I am hoping he doesn't turn into Dan Haren 2.0.

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Could be a warning sign.... Or could be your chance to buy low. Only you can decide.

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Per RW: "fastball velocity was sluggish"

What does this mean? What was he averaging? Anyone see him today? Looks like he mainly just struggled in the 2nd inning.

I am hoping he doesn't turn into Dan Haren 2.0.

Saw him top out at 92-93 today, at least according to the ESPN gun.

It wasn't a pretty performance but 3 infield hits didn't help him. His control was mediocre to poor but he didn't have a full spring so I'd imagine he's still shaking off the rust.

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I saw a lot of 88mph today, but i was flippin between a lot of games

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Just par for the course with CC, his velo looked fine to me.

In his first start the L7 years, he has tossed 35.3 innings and allowed 45 hits and 29 earned runs (7.39 ERA) with a 30:17 K:BB ratio.

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I stayed far far away. The injuries last year and an issue in spring training combined with the multitude of injuries on this team just didn't bode well. The team is getting old on top of that, so it's hard to think they're going to be a very good team.

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7 innings pitched, 0 Runs, 4 Hits, and a Win over Justin Verlander and the offense that many believe is the best in all of baseball.

As Mark Twain once stated: "Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

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I think his arm is about to fall off - I'd unload him ASAP and take anything of use that I could get.

Hope you didn't follow your own advise.

CC be beastin

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I think his arm is about to fall off - I'd unload him ASAP and take anything of use that I could get.

Hope you didn't follow your own advise.

CC be beastin

His fastball's still averaging 90 or lower - that's entering "crafty lefty" territory. 2.5 mph slower than last season, 4 mph slower than 2011. The fact that he's been lucky enough to not get shelled with velo like that is your opportunity to sell high, not a sign that you should hold onto him.

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8 innings pitched 9 K's, 1 ER, this time against the O's. Its not like he is doing this against the Astros or Marlins.

1 ER his last 15 innings pitched. The Velocity is down a little bit, but he is still hitting the low 90's (93 MPH was his high on the night, but he was routinely at 90). It is not like he is in the mid 80's.

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Another really good start, but CC hit a mere 90 mph on the radar gun. Just when I thought the velocity was coming back it went down. Also, the 90 was rare, he was in 87-89 rank with his fastball most of the night.

But you can't argue with the results.

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Ever think he might be becoming a better pitcher and not a thrower? The few MPH on his fast looks drastic but if he's locating and his secondary pitches are working that's all that really matters. Greg Maddoux is a perfect example.

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http://www.faketeams.com/2013/4/20/4243804/cc-sabathia-ew

Interesting read about his velocity.

"After averaging almost 91 mph on his fastball in his 2nd start, he barely managed above 90 this past Wednesday, 17April2013. On the year, his Fastball is averaging 89.9 mph compared to 92.4, 93.9 and 93.6 in the previous three years.

Bill Petti on Fangraphs referenced this issue and also pegged him for further velocity loss. He goes on to say Pitchers that lose at least 1 mph have, on average, a 39% chance of either getting injured or failing to throw at least 40 IP in the following season. They also have a 91% chance of losing further velocity the following season.

Folks, it's a great time to sell high on CC Sabathia. To date, he has a 2.57 ERA (3.85 SIERA). I believe his ERA will catch up and again surpass his SIERA like it did last year (3.17 SIERA and 3.38 ERA).

If his peripherals continue/velocity drops or even doesn't pick up we're looking at a K/BB ratio similar to his 2010 level of 2.66 but with a less graceful GB/FB ratio like in 2009 (1.15). The combined effect should yield an ERA beyond his SIERA from those two years: 3.79 and 3.70.

To date, hitters are swinging at less stuff outside the zone and more at stuff inside. On the other hand, hitters' contact% against him and their swing at strikes and miss% are in line with what we would have expected prior to this velocity dip, but if his velocity struggles continue, this could change and again these combining effects will negatively inflate his numbers - overall contact% > more fly balls > more HR/FB.

Looking at his 2013 repertoire to date, it doesn’t seem as though he's less confident throwing his fastball (57.1% versus 54% all of last year). Instead, it looks as though he's trying to mix and match his Fastball-Changeup a bit more (16.8% changeups versus 12.6% and 13.4% in the previous two years). If his head takes over with everyone asking about the velocity dip and he sticks with this new fastball-changeup approach, I'm not sure it will be successful. Right now hitters are hitting his changeup the hardest (.381 wOBA versus .310 on his fastball, .177 on his curveball and .127 on his slider which continues to be very successful).

Recommendation: Keep an eye on his velocity and approach if you can't manage trading him, otherwise take advantage of his ERA and K/BB to date and sell high because neither will hold up."

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I wonder if I can get Cain straight up for him.

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AVG FB velocity of 89 MPH. First time in his career it's under 93 MPH.

looks like cc is gona have to learn how to pitch now. Velocity let him get away with so much

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AVG FB velocity of 89 MPH. First time in his career it's under 93 MPH.

looks like cc is gona have to learn how to pitch now. Velocity let him get away with so much

That's not honest. He was always a fantastic pitcher. Very smart guy. That's off base in my opinion.

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AVG FB velocity of 89 MPH. First time in his career it's under 93 MPH.

looks like cc is gona have to learn how to pitch now. Velocity let him get away with so much

That's not honest. He was always a fantastic pitcher. Very smart guy. That's off base in my opinion.

very true. that comment was greatly overexaggerated. He defintley knows how to pitch but now hes going to need to locate a bit more now

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Still getting swings and misses at an elite rate. Maybe not CC in his prime, but I'd still call him a top 10 AL arm.

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