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gbill2004

Johan Santana 2013 Outlook

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Not a chance. He's no better than a middle of the road starter, at best. I think you'll see some decent games but I think his best days are farrrrrrrrrrrr behind him. When I see "shoulder" I generally run away.

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If you take away his last 5 starts last season where he was obviously pitching hurt he had a 2.76 ERA, was striking out a batter an inning and he threw a no-hitter so the talent is still there. He's one of the smartest pitchers in the league, has great command and his change-up is still deadly so if he pitches healthy I can see a 3ish ERA and a 8.5 K/9 which is excellent value given where he is being drafted. The big question of course is his health.

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Whats his current health like? Whats his velocity looking like in camp?

He's going to start the season the the DL but he's only expected to miss a start or two. Haven't read any reports on his fastball

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He'll probably be pretty good the 1st half of the season...unload him before the 2nd half starts.

After that no hitter last year, he fell apart but he still knows how to pitch.

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I remember posting in the Johan thread after he threw it being skeptical of him being able to survive the 134 pitch outing. It appears he was not able to survive. So hopefully the Mets are much more cautious with him this season and keep him around 100 pitch counts.

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I drafted him as a last pick... I have faith in him, he's a smart pitcher with the experience. I'm just waiting for yahoo to change him over to a DL spot already!! So I can grab another starter for the first couple of weeks!

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correction he's out another 6 weeks, so consider him back early May... but If you have DL slots, it can't hurt to stash him!

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http://hardballtalk....-pitch/related/

I've said it before, but it bears repeating - when it comes to labrum reconstruction, it's usually a career-killer. Add him to the long list of guys who just never come back the same way afterwards. Usually, a DL spot is one that carries almost no risk, but there are likely way better options to carry on the DL than Johan, given the above.

At least the Mets can buy him out after this year.

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Whats his current health like? Whats his velocity looking like in camp?

He's going to start the season the the DL but he's only expected to miss a start or two. Haven't read any reports on his fastball

Ha ha ha ha ha. "Only expected to miss a start or two". This is like the guy who pumps and dumps penny stocks.

If he were a hitter (e.g. Carl Crawford), this would be a totally different conversation. But as a pitcher, his odds of a comeback and really returning to form are incredibly slim. The last starting pitcher I can remember returning to elite form after a two-year outage was Curt Schilling 1994-1995. A few relievers have done it as well (Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen)

I'll put his over/under at 95 IP and 5.5 W this year. They will probably be 95 quality innings, but you can likely get just as much out of Mike Adams or Kenley Jansen as you will out of Santana.

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"Re-tears his shoulder. Season ending surgery is likely"

Almost drafted him. Glad I didn't.

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It's a shame that this will likely end his career. He was really promising earlier in his career and it's a shame that this is how it will end.

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Definitely a shame. This guy's no hitter last year was one of the highlights of the season, but can't help but feel it also contributed to hasten his demise.

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Definitely a shame. This guy's no hitter last year was one of the highlights of the season, but can't help but feel it also contributed to hasten his demise.

As a Mets fan it was well worth it.

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"Re-tears his shoulder. Season ending surgery is likely"

Almost drafted him. Glad I didn't.

Somebody kept him in my keeper league for $1. Feel bad for them lol.

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I'm sure another team will give him an opportunity on a minor league deal but there is pretty fair chance that we have seen the last of Johan in the majors.

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