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rraayy3

Hakeem Nicks 2013 Season Outlook

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We know, he's "injury prone". Moving on ...

per game production in 2012 puts him top 25 for WRs (on 1 leg)

in 2011, 12th overall WR.

in 2010, 7th overall WR.

So, at what point in drafts do you stop pretending the WRs you draft instead are magically safe from injury and take the risk with a guy that has produced borderline top 10 production the 2 years before? I'm sure a lot of people will be turned off by his disaster of a 2012, but the guy was literally playing on 1 leg most weeks.

It's also his contract year and the Giants have already been rumored to be focusing on his long term extension rather than Cruz.

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One of the bigger risks I'm think of gambling on in my drafts come August.

If he lasts to the 5th round he'll be pretty hard to resist. Classic risk-reward with his elite talent, and I think Eli bounces back well next year.

4th round or earlier, he can be someone else's headache, but you'd be foolish not to at least consider him by the 5th. If he stays on the field he's a lock for extremely solid production.

He's the Murray of WR's. If he just stays on the field he's extremely solid production.

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Before this thread derails into the oblivion of upside vs. injury prone ...

What WRs are "safer" and offer his top 10 potential? (could even argue ~ top 5 if he played a full season) Basically, who would you definitely rather have? (I rank WRs in tiers, individual ranks are way too subjective).

Already finished 7/12th while missing time ... sky high potential with 16 games.

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It's not like this is speculation, He's already been a top 10 WR and has been a stud for 2 of the last 3 years.

Coming off a horrible year ... contract year ... could be a huge steal this year. He'll definitely be the cheapest WR with "elite" potential.

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How broad are your tiers?

Tron

_______

Green

Julio

Marshall

Bryant

Thomas

_______

Johnson, Harvin, Decker, White, VJax

(Nicks thrown in somewhere in this tier)

So yes, if go RB, RB and maybe get Nicks and VJax in the 3-4th I'd be pretty happy.

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I would take Decker outta that group .. Cobb should be there instead

Yes he could surely be thrown in there too, once you get to that 3rd tier one could make an argument for a solid 8-10 players to be put in it.

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It's not like this is speculation, He's already been a top 10 WR and has been a stud for 2 of the last 3 years.

Coming off a horrible year ... contract year ... could be a huge steal this year. He'll definitely be the cheapest WR with "elite" potential.

You use that term "stud" rather loosely when describing Nicks .. I don't know what type of fantasy leagues you play in but in my league he ranked:

#55 in 2012, #11 in 2011, and #9 in 2010 ..

Does your league reward points for missing games?

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i consider guys that perform like top 10 players at their position studs. last time i checked 11 and 9 were pretty close to 10.

No, but we do reward points for longer TDs so he finished 7th one year in mine. It's also a 14 team league with 42 starting WRs (14 teams/3 WRs ... 14x3 = 42)... so yeah i think a guy that's produced top 10 numbers at such a young age is a "stud".

The fact that this guy has produced the way he has in 2/3 seasons (while missing games and those 0s counted in) shows how good of a player he is. So did his historic playoff run on the road to the SB, and the actual 100/10 catches he had in the game too - despite Belichek focusing on taking him out of the game.

Yeah, he's a stud.

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He's gotta produce like a Top 5 WR to be considered a stud .. Something Cruz did last year and something Cobb did this past year .. He didn't miss that many games in 2011 and 2010 and was the 10th best Wr

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oh 5 is "stud"? my bad didn't get the memo.

the 5th and 10th overall WR differ in ~1 point per game on average in 2011/2012, so totally worth arguing over.

Also Cruz was 12th, Cobb 17th. So ... yeah.

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I would take Decker outta that group .. Cobb should be there instead

I can't be on board with Decker with Welker there now.

I think V-Jax is the worst fantasy WR I'd take over Nicks. Jordy Nelson is cutting it close.

I think I'd take Nicks over Colston though. He's right in that range.

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Well in my league we get special team points as well so Cobb finished #6 .. I'd take Cruz and Cobb both over Hicks .. Hicks is a better WR in real football but not in fantasy

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Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.

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Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.

You should, he'll outproduce him.

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The Run DMC of the WR position....the problem with Nicks is that he's a 25 year-old with the feet/legs/knees of a 45 year-old. All these injuries and scopes are adding up and him losing a step is a real possibility. I wouldn't be comfortable with using one of my first 4 picks on him. After that, possibly I'd take a chance. Not a guy I'm targeting though.

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Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.

You should, he'll outproduce him.

Wat. You're going to take Peyton Manning's #3 target over Eli MAnning's #1?

Eric Decker 2012: 85/1064/13

Hakeem Nicks 2010(13 games played): 79/1052/11

Hakeem Nicks 2011(15 games played): 76/1192/7

I'm not sure how often Nicks was bothered by his injuries in games last year(I'll let Ray comment on that) but I highly doubt Eric Decker produces those numbers again. Peyton spreads the ball around very well and now Welker is in the picture. I definitely don't see him reaching double digit TDs again.

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Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.

You should, he'll outproduce him.

Wat. You're going to take Peyton Manning's #3 target over Eli MAnning's #1?

Eric Decker 2012: 85/1064/13

Hakeem Nicks 2010(13 games played): 79/1052/11

Hakeem Nicks 2011(15 games played): 76/1192/7

I'm not sure how often Nicks was bothered by his injuries in games last year(I'll let Ray comment on that) but I highly doubt Eric Decker produces those numbers again. Peyton spreads the ball around very well and now Welker is in the picture. I definitely don't see him reaching double digit TDs again.

How about just avoiding both!

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Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.

You should, he'll outproduce him.

Wat. You're going to take Peyton Manning's #3 target over Eli MAnning's #1?

Eric Decker 2012: 85/1064/13

Hakeem Nicks 2010(13 games played): 79/1052/11

Hakeem Nicks 2011(15 games played): 76/1192/7

I'm not sure how often Nicks was bothered by his injuries in games last year(I'll let Ray comment on that) but I highly doubt Eric Decker produces those numbers again. Peyton spreads the ball around very well and now Welker is in the picture. I definitely don't see him reaching double digit TDs again.

How about just avoiding both!

I'm avoiding Decker. But in the mocks and ADP of what I think Nicks will be, he could be a solid bargain come draft day.

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Nicks is not DMC.

He's been a ~ top 10 WR in 2/3 seasons. It's not all "upside", the guy has produced stud numbers since he's been in the league.

All you need to do is watch the highlight of his 2012 to see how hurt he was playing last year. There were 4/5 games (SF especially) where he had no business being on the field. He'd make a catch and barely be able to walk back to the huddle.

Can't knock a guy for wanting to play but he should've been shutdown until he was relatively healthy. He played on a hurt ankle, overcompensated, and this led to a knee injury on top of the ankle never healing.

Taking Decker over Nicks, especially with Welker on board, is so ridiculous to me I won't even waste time arguing that. If you think Decker's gonna have more yards or duplicate 13 TDs ... nevermind.

You can get a player in the 4/5th that, in 2 of 3 seasons, has been a ~top 10 WR and is entering a contract year. He's a physical WR so he might get hurt though. I'm sure they'll be plenty of other WRs with Nicks talent available at that draft price , especially guys capable of 200 yards in a game playing on 1 leg (Tampa game).

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Nicks is not DMC.

He's been a ~ top 10 WR in 2/3 seasons. It's not all "upside", the guy has produced stud numbers since he's been in the league.

All you need to do is watch the highlight of his 2012 to see how hurt he was playing last year. There were 4/5 games (SF especially) where he had no business being on the field. He'd make a catch and barely be able to walk back to the huddle.

Can't knock a guy for wanting to play but he should've been shutdown until he was relatively healthy. He played on a hurt ankle, overcompensated, and this led to a knee injury on top of the ankle never healing.

Taking Decker over Nicks, especially with Welker on board, is so ridiculous to me I won't even waste time arguing that. If you think Decker's gonna have more yards or duplicate 13 TDs ... nevermind.

You can get a player in the 4/5th that, in 2 of 3 seasons, has been a ~top 10 WR and is entering a contract year. He's a physical WR so he might get hurt though. I'm sure they'll be plenty of other WRs with Nicks talent available at that draft price.

I'm not knocking a guy for playing hurt, props to him for being a warrior and trying to help his team win. I am knocking him for seemingly always having foot/leg/knee injuries that he is dealing with. I don't know about you but Rotoworld blurbs on Nicks like this have me worried about him ever fully regaining his early career form:

"The Newark Star-Ledger confirms Hakeem Nicks' "scope" was performed on the contract-year receiver's troublesome left knee.

Coach Tom Coughlin initially declined to provide details. It's the left knee Nicks injured late in Week 2 against the Buccaneers, and attempted to play through -- mostly unsuccessfully -- the rest of the way. The Giants hope the scope will help restore some of Nicks' explosion off the line of scrimmage and downfield. Nicks struggled to separate from man coverage throughout 2012. Feb 22 - 6:05 PM"

I have no problem with someone wanting to take a risk on him in rd 4/5 but I will most likely look elsewhere.

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During an interview with 660 WFAN in New York, Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning said that Hakeem Nicks has informed him that he expects to go full-speed during the Giants’ offseason program. “Hakeem is doing well. Talked to him the other day, and he’s training and getting ready, and he’ll be ready when we start the spring,” Nicks said, per the Newark Star-Ledger. “He’ll be full go and running, so that’s good.” A big reason the Giants missed the playoffs and had a rough year in 2012, is because of how limited Nicks was last season due to multiple injuries.

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Nicks was never fit last season. Even when he was playing, he just wasn't his usual self. I just hope he has put his injury woes behind him.

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