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Robrain

Darrius Heyward-Bey 2013 Season Outlook

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If I had to guess right now, I'd say he's most likely in for a role similar to how Devery Henderson was used with the Saints. Situational deep threat, fantasy relevance depends entirely on him catching a long bomb for a 50+ yard TD, since he's going to get at most three passes the entire game.

And if he does post that 100+ yard, 1-2 TD game in Week 1, you sell high on him to another manager in your league that doesn't understand that he's basically filled his quota for TD's for the entire season, and won't have a fantasy-relevant performance again for at least another 5 weeks.

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Avery had 112 targets last season in the same role. I know Arians is gone, but DHB presents good value right now. What is his ADP? Probably have to take him as your WR5. I think he's got a WR3 upside if all the cards fall just right and his floor is likely WR5 if he's just used in the Avery role.

People will point to Hilton, but Hilton had an atrocious drop %. I think he dropped something like 1 out of every 6 catchable balls. DHB isn't exactly made out of glue, but he can beat out that kind of performance.

That being said, I'm not going to target him specifically, but he'll be on my radar in the later rounds of redrafts.

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He went in the 10th round of a 12 team mock draft I'm participating in.

To get a sense of his neighborhood, the last two WRs that went before him were Santonio Holmes and Josh Gordon, the first two after him were Chris Givens and (the currently unemployed) Brandon Lloyd

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People will point to Hilton, but Hilton had an atrocious drop %. I think he dropped something like 1 out of every 6 catchable balls. DHB isn't exactly made out of glue, but he can beat out that kind of performance.

DHB's had some astounding drops as well, so I think Hilton gets every chance to make an improvement and win the starting job.

He went in the 10th round of a 12 team mock draft I'm participating in.

To get a sense of his neighborhood, the last two WRs that went before him were Santonio Holmes and Josh Gordon,

I don't see how Josh Gordon is getting taken that late, but that's just me. Great value for Gordon. Holmes is on the Jets, and I guess the 10th round is appropriate since I think there's a big risk associated with drafting any player on that team.

the first two after him were Chris Givens and (the currently unemployed) Brandon Lloyd

I can't see any reason for taking DHB ahead of Chris Givens. Givens in the 10th round? Someone has to be buying into the hype and opportunity for Givens by the time real drafts roll around.

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People will point to Hilton, but Hilton had an atrocious drop %. I think he dropped something like 1 out of every 6 catchable balls. DHB isn't exactly made out of glue, but he can beat out that kind of performance.

DHB's had some astounding drops as well, so I think Hilton gets every chance to make an improvement and win the starting job.

Yes, I acknowledged in my post that DHB isn't known for having good hands. So you aren't actually saying anything new here. You act like these guys are two peas in a poor hands pod, but actually Hilton led the league in drop percentage last year: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/21/signature-stats-drop-rate-wide-receivers/

If Indy was apprehensive about Heyward-Bey's drops and were going to let some scrub with no hands have the job anyway then they wouldn't have targeted him in free agency. I think DHB has at least a 50% chance of winning the WR2 job.

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Well it looks like he's got a firm grip on the WR2 job. I won't say he's a lock to get it, but I'm pretty shocked. If he does end up holding onto it throughout the season, I could see him having a solid season.

Maybe something like 75/1050/7.

He had similar numbers in 2011 with Campbell and Palmer who was just thrown in there posting up numbers of 64/975/4

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He really is not that bad, starting in 2011 he became a completely different player. Last year he was slowed by injuries, I wanted the Vikings to get him as I feel like he can be a solid contributor when healthy.

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Pagano says his confidence Is rising...what do you guys think, could he be in for a sneaky little season for those of us that grabbed him?

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Avery had 112 targets last season in the same role. I know Arians is gone, but DHB presents good value right now. What is his ADP? Probably have to take him as your WR5. I think he's got a WR3 upside if all the cards fall just right and his floor is likely WR5 if he's just used in the Avery role.

People will point to Hilton, but Hilton had an atrocious drop %. I think he dropped something like 1 out of every 6 catchable balls. DHB isn't exactly made out of glue, but he can beat out that kind of performance.

That being said, I'm not going to target him specifically, but he'll be on my radar in the later rounds of redrafts.

I wouldn't bet too much money on that. Just ask Raiders fans how they feel about DHB and his hands.

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Yea but to DHBs defense, I mean....its the Raiders. I would be depressed as hell if I was on that team with their QB struggles and just overall sadness.

Not saying that sure he couldn't do better, but that has to play a part on morale. If youre on the Colts, with a young and talented QB that is obviously going places, I think that can make a good player even better.

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He may be the guy starting the year in 2 WR sets, but Hilton is going to be the one producing big numbers of the two.

Hilton's preseason work solidified that.

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I like DHB a lot this year. People seem too caught up in TY Hilton to actually give him praise but I can see him quietly hitting 1,000 yards and some TDs with Luck as his QB and that defense being terrible.

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Just wanted to point out that Hilton made his great Rookie season playing out of the 3rd WR spot. I know it was a totally different offensive style last year, with different OC and everything, but is DHB that much better than Donnie Avery? Is Andrew Luck going to make different decisions than last year if he sees HIlton burning CBs on out routes the few times he gets looks this year / got the chances last year?

Dont look for either of these guys to be particularly strong (re: consistent) out of the gate. But I will still take the upside of Hilton over DHB anyday, and will continue to think of HIlton as a WR3, and DHB as a WR4.

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i'm a raiders fan.Watched every game of his best season 2011 with 60ish receptions 950ish yards. He did well that year with a bad oline and quarterback/ and horrible coordinator. Right now I see DHB as their 3rd option in the passing game tied with allen/fleener. He will play two WR sets because he blocks better so he is going to play alot. DHB is fast as hell and just needs to catch the ball. He has been going to practices early too ,to improve his catching. I'd take DHB happily knowing he's lucks third option in passing game . 12th round. projections 1050 yards/7 TDS/ 64 receptions.

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Kinda sad that my WR are SO bad, that I have to kick around the idea of starting DHB week one (waiting for Gordon to come off of suspension).

But I think there may be something to him @ the #2 WR position. Avery put up 60 / 780 / 3...Luck is a year more mature, Reggie is a year older...I won't be surprised if DHB surpasses the #'s Avery put up last season.

But we have to see what the Offense looks like...

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Amen to this and I think DHB > avery.

Kinda sad that my WR are SO bad, that I have to kick around the idea of starting DHB week one (waiting for Gordon to come off of suspension).

But I think there may be something to him @ the #2 WR position. Avery put up 60 / 780 / 3...Luck is a year more mature, Reggie is a year older...I won't be surprised if DHB surpasses the #'s Avery put up last season.

But we have to see what the Offense looks like...

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Seeing the most recent rotoworld blurb, I think DHB keeps the starting job unless he really struggles. Hilton is not as good of a blocker as DHB. Also, consider that Hilton is only 5'9" 178lbs and you have a guy who fits the mold of a slot receiver. DHB is 6'2" 219lbs.

I think DHB will have a pretty decent year. WR 3 numbers; somewhere around Brandon Lloyd and Miles Austin last year. I do think there is room for improvement though. Maybe the change of scenery (and getting away from Oakland) does him some good.

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What's with the the focus on WR's ability to block?

Pagano wants to run with two TEs as a base formation. That leaves only two WRs on the field and if one of them can't block, that becomes a weakness.

It could also tip the defense off. If Hilton is in there, then they are likely throwing the ball, or running up the middle or to the opposite side. Football is much like a chess match. It can be a battle won by just a few yards, one clean block, or missed assignment. If Pagano believes DHB is every bit as capable of stretching the defense as Hilton, then the difference in who starts is which player helps conceal their playcalling. Right now, that is DHB.

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OK. I'm going to say it. DHB is the most under rated player in the 2013 draft. I have gotten him in every league I've been in in rounds 12 (probably reached), 14, 15. He is the #2 WR in Indy's pass first offense. Sure TY Hilton is a nice deep threat, but drafting him over DHB this year is a mistake (especially in PPR leagues). And his ADP is 6 rounds higher.

Sure he's been a bust so far in his career, but playing in Oakland with garbage, trash, and crap at QB sure didn't help. The guy has talent, and this is the first time he's ever had a real QB, get him in the clearance isle if you have bench space, come week 2-3 he will be the most added player in every league and a nice WR2/3 for your team.

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OK. I'm going to say it. DHB is the most under rated player in the 2013 draft. I have gotten him in every league I've been in in rounds 12 (probably reached), 14, 15. He is the #2 WR in Indy's pass first offense. Sure TY Hilton is a nice deep threat, but drafting him over DHB this year is a mistake (especially in PPR leagues). And his ADP is 6 rounds higher.

Sure he's been a bust so far in his career, but playing in Oakland with garbage, trash, and crap at QB sure didn't help. The guy has talent, and this is the first time he's ever had a real QB, get him in the clearance isle if you have bench space, come week 2-3 he will be the most added player in every league and a nice WR2/3 for your team.

I think Hilton is an absolute steal where he's going.

Guess what, in 3 WR sets, who is going to be open? That's right, Hilton, who was smoking guys left and right in the preseason. Let DHB start if they need his blocking. When they go 3 wide Hilton will be open.

DHB can be a WR3 for fantasy owners, but Hilton can be a WR2.

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not a big fan of the player but I am really disaapointed I didn't grabb him even once. not sure why the cards then aligned themselve for me to get him without reaching.

his price is just insanely attractive.

i hope you guys don't make the same mistake as me.

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I think DHB has a great week 1 against his former team OAK. Too bad though it's week 1 and basically no one needs to start him so those points will go wasted on benches.

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