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J.T. Marlin

Tom Brady 2013 Season Outlook

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Anyone else worried about Brady's production falling off this season? The loss of Welker hurts as I do not think that Amendola will be as productive. Also, I never like to assume an injury will happen but there has to be some concern that his top 3 targets (Gronk, Hernandez, & Amendola) have all had some major injury issues and missed games over the last 2 seasons. To me, Brady is a tier below Brees, Rodgers, Manning & Cam. After that, I'd rather just pass on Brady for one of the lower-ranked guys, who I think can outperform him (Kaep, RGIII, Stafford, Ryan). I can't see him on any of my teams for 2013.

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Emmanuel Sanders given an offer sheet by the Pats. I'm not too worried if that is successful.

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I'd be willing to ride him if the price is right but I gotta say that the 2013 FF QB position is super deep and I am totally willing to wait, wait some more, and still get a good one.

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His protection appears to be dwindling but if anyone can be trusted to restore missing parts quickly it's the Pats. Still... probably too expensive for me given what I'm willing to call unprecedented depth at QB.

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Of course, as soon as I post this, NE signs ESanders to an offer sheet and outright signs Edelman. These 2 additions would obviously be positive but neither are difference makers at WR. Brady will probably be fine but I still have a gut feeling that he will under-perform relative to his ADP.

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I'll be laughing come draft day when someone reaches for him in the second or third based on his name.

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I'll be laughing come draft day when someone reaches for him in the second or third based on his name.

Exactly, I think MRyan will put up the same #'s and you can get him 4 rds later.

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He still has Gronk and Hernandez as well as Edelman who looked solid last year. Amendola was a really good pickup. Even if they don't get Sanders, he should be fine.

In 2011 he was throwing to:

Gronkowski - 90

Welker - 122

Hernandez - 79

Branch - 51

Woodhead - 18

Ochocino - 15

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Also, in what league is Tom-freaking-Brady falling to the 3rd round? I wanna play.

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Some straight up fools posting here, children at play. Brady will be a Top 5, probably Top 3 QB....again. I know we are all talking about value picks and QB depth, but you know how silly it sounds kicking dirt on Brady? While you bury Brady might as well throw Brees and Rodgers in a hole with him too....this season will be a carbon copy of last season. Ri-gronkculous.

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Not worried. Brady is Brady because he makes who he has relevent targets not the other way around.

He is like Favre was...the names can change but they will will always be decent options because he was that good.

Also...seriously Brady in the third and Ryan in the seventh. I definitely would like an invite to that league. Last time I saw Brady go in the third was after he blew out his ACL and that was the bargain of the decade

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Some straight up fools posting here, children at play. Brady will be a Top 5, probably Top 3 QB....again. I know we are all talking about value picks and QB depth, but you know how silly it sounds kicking dirt on Brady? While you bury Brady might as well throw Brees and Rodgers in a hole with him too....this season will be a carbon copy of last season. Ri-gronkculous.

Of course Brady will still be Brady. What Is foolish is paying for his production with a second round pick when you can wait until the 6th or later and get comparable production.

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Some straight up fools posting here, children at play. Brady will be a Top 5, probably Top 3 QB....again. I know we are all talking about value picks and QB depth, but you know how silly it sounds kicking dirt on Brady? While you bury Brady might as well throw Brees and Rodgers in a hole with him too....this season will be a carbon copy of last season. Ri-gronkculous.

Of course Brady will still be Brady. What Is foolish is paying for his production with a second round pick when you can wait until the 6th or later and get comparable production.

So you would say the same things about Rodgers and Brees? Go ahead I guess. I am aware of the strategy, but who will you realistically get in the 6th or later? Dalton? Luck? Stafford? And someone said Brady is Tier 2? Come on. I don't have the stats, but I am pretty sure the Big 3 are WAY more consistent than the Tier 3 QBs. Another factor is that all the owner's that subscribe to this late QB theory are in love with these read option QBs. I've discussed this in other forums too. The RO QBs are significantly more risky and less consistent than the traditional pocket passers. Somebody is thinking they can grab Kapernick in the 6th and outsmart everyone, but I would much rather take the safe route and "reach" for a Tier 1 or fringe starter in Rds. 2-4.

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Also, in what league is Tom-freaking-Brady falling to the 3rd round? I wanna play.

Imo the only QBs worth maybe taking in the first 2 rounds is Brees and Rodgers but Brady in the 3rd?! Sign me up.

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Who knows exactly what ADP's are going to be at this point but Brady with a 2nd rd ADP sounds about right. I don't think MRyan will have an ADP earlier than rd 4 and it will probably be closer to rd 5 - there's just so many QB options this year and people will wait a bit after Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Cam and Brady are selected.

Let's compare the 2012 stats:

Brady - 4,827/34 TD/8 INT/4 rush TD - 329 standard fantasy pts

Ryan - 4,719/32 TD/14 INT/1 rush TD - 291 standard fantasy pts

These values are so close that some minor changes in the stat lines could flip flop Brady & Ryan's fantasy point totals for 2013.

Brady could obviously be great again and his track record speaks for itself but I definitely like Rodgers, Brees, Manning a lot more for 2013. The loss of Welker plus substantial injury histories of Amendola/Hernandez/Gronk has me concerned. Brady's level of play has to drop off at some point and I believe we've already seen his best years.

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Who knows exactly what ADP's are going to be at this point but Brady with a 2nd rd ADP sounds about right. I don't think MRyan will have an ADP earlier than rd 4 and it will probably be closer to rd 5 - there's just so many QB options this year and people will wait a bit after Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Cam and Brady are selected.

Let's compare the 2012 stats:

Brady - 4,827/34 TD/8 INT/4 rush TD - 329 standard fantasy pts

Ryan - 4,719/32 TD/14 INT/1 rush TD - 291 standard fantasy pts

These values are so close that some minor changes in the stat lines could flip flop Brady & Ryan's fantasy point totals for 2013.

Brady could obviously be great again and his track record speaks for itself but I definitely like Rodgers, Brees, Manning a lot more for 2013. The loss of Welker plus substantial injury histories of Amendola/Hernandez/Gronk has me concerned. Brady's level of play has to drop off at some point and I believe we've already seen his best years.

Until Brady leaves or loses substantial arm strength, the Pats offense will flow through him, much like GB. And as a far as peaks, you could put Manning and maybe Brees in the same category with your logic. With Ryan, his stats could slip this year with SJax in the fold now, especially since Jackson is going to vulture ALOT of TDs.

I would also say that there are so many teams that are moving to a RBBC approach that you may not get what you paid for by loading up on RBs and WRs and if you screw around and gamble trying to hit on a QB late you also risk getting a Eli or a Flacco. ADPs don't mean a whole bunch at this time of the year anyway or shouldn't. Early on, I want to take the best player on the board. I have not played in a bunch of leagues, but i have only seen 1 team win with a late round QB (Big Ben) win the Chp. and he had everything go PERFECT for him in the playoffs after going pretty close to .500 for the reg season.

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Let's compare the 2012 stats:

Brady - 4,827/34 TD/8 INT/4 rush TD - 329 standard fantasy pts

Ryan - 4,719/32 TD/14 INT/1 rush TD - 291 standard fantasy pts

This is a very good point, however, with a decent RB in town again in ATL I think the chances of Ryan improving on those numbers is lower than the chances of Brady returning to 5000+/40+/10 form. This is of course assuming Gronk is healthy by week 1, etc. etc.

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The thing about "Brady in the 3rd" is that if everyone lets Brady slip that far, the guy that got the first pick overall gets the chance to land Brady as well. Basically, you're giving the guy with Adrian Peterson / Arian Foster / Calvin Johnson:

1.01 Adrian Peterson / Arian Foster / Calvin Johnson

2.12 ?

3.01 Tom Brady

Way to let one team stack the deck in their favor.

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Who knows exactly what ADP's are going to be at this point but Brady with a 2nd rd ADP sounds about right. I don't think MRyan will have an ADP earlier than rd 4 and it will probably be closer to rd 5 - there's just so many QB options this year and people will wait a bit after Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Cam and Brady are selected.

Let's compare the 2012 stats:

Brady - 4,827/34 TD/8 INT/4 rush TD - 329 standard fantasy pts

Ryan - 4,719/32 TD/14 INT/1 rush TD - 291 standard fantasy pts

These values are so close that some minor changes in the stat lines could flip flop Brady & Ryan's fantasy point totals for 2013.

Brady could obviously be great again and his track record speaks for itself but I definitely like Rodgers, Brees, Manning a lot more for 2013. The loss of Welker plus substantial injury histories of Amendola/Hernandez/Gronk has me concerned. Brady's level of play has to drop off at some point and I believe we've already seen his best years.

Until Brady leaves or loses substantial arm strength, the Pats offense will flow through him, much like GB. And as a far as peaks, you could put Manning and maybe Brees in the same category with your logic. With Ryan, his stats could slip this year with SJax in the fold now, especially since Jackson is going to vulture ALOT of TDs.

I would also say that there are so many teams that are moving to a RBBC approach that you may not get what you paid for by loading up on RBs and WRs and if you screw around and gamble trying to hit on a QB late you also risk getting a Eli or a Flacco. ADPs don't mean a whole bunch at this time of the year anyway or shouldn't. Early on, I want to take the best player on the board. I have not played in a bunch of leagues, but i have only seen 1 team win with a late round QB (Big Ben) win the Chp. and he had everything go PERFECT for him in the playoffs after going pretty close to .500 for the reg season.

Reasons I like the other top QB's over Brady:

Rodgers - think he's the best QB in football with a sick receiving crew of Cobb/Nelson/Jones/Finley and the team does not have much of a running game at this point.

Brees - I think he and Peyton will be in FU mode after the 2012 Bounty suspensions and lost season. I think they'll be happy to run up the scores on teams and it should be another monster season from Brees

Manning - played better than anyone expected last season and now the team added Welker as the 3rd WR. 5000 yds & 40 TD are within reach.

I would consider any of these 3 QB in late rd 1 or early 2nd depending on what else is out there. Also, I think QB is deeper than I can ever remember. I only play in 10 or 12 team 1 QB leagues and there are 12 guys that I would be really comfortable with as my starting QB (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Cam, Brady, Ryan, Kaep, Stafford, RGIII, RWilson, Romo, Luck). Worst case scenario is that an owner or 2 reaches for his 2nd QB and I'm left with having to fill my QB spot with the likes of EManning, Vick, Big Ben, Cutler, Dalton, Palmer, Locker, Rivers, Tannehill, Weeden, etc. - not a disastrous situation by any means in my opinion.

I know I'm going against the grain here in worrying about Brady. If Gronk & Hernandez stay healthy and Amendola & ESanders are better than expected, then he's going to have another great season. I just like the other perceived elite QB's considerably more than Brady for 2013 and do not see myself drafting him in his probable ADP range.

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The thing about "Brady in the 3rd" is that if everyone lets Brady slip that far, the guy that got the first pick overall gets the chance to land Brady as well. Basically, you're giving the guy with Adrian Peterson / Arian Foster / Calvin Johnson:

1.01 Adrian Peterson / Arian Foster / Calvin Johnson

2.12 ?

3.01 Tom Brady

Way to let one team stack the deck in their favor.

Exactly this.

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The thing about "Brady in the 3rd" is that if everyone lets Brady slip that far, the guy that got the first pick overall gets the chance to land Brady as well. Basically, you're giving the guy with Adrian Peterson / Arian Foster / Calvin Johnson:

1.01 Adrian Peterson / Arian Foster / Calvin Johnson

2.12 ?

3.01 Tom Brady

Way to let one team stack the deck in their favor.

Exactly this.

I don't think I've ever drafted a guy just to block another team from getting him. I only worry about making the best picks for my team - stick with your rankings and strategy as best you can. What if you take Brady and the AP owner is then able to land SJax and Harvin, who go on to have monster seasons. He then takes Kaep with one of his 4/5 picks and he goes on to have a top 5 QB season. Nothing is set in stone about Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Manning/Cam ending the season as the top 5 scoring QB.

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I haven't either. I think the piont is that you better hope your leaguemates are paying attention so the above scenario doesn't happen. We're basing this on past performances. I can remember several seasons where a couple of asleep at the wheel owners essentially gift wrapped a team dominance from day one through the draft, it happened in the ppr league I run last season, those seasons really suck unless you can get some major trading going somehow.

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I look at it this way. I'd rather have a very good 2nd round RB, or elite 2nd round receiver and get a Ryan or Stafford in the 5th, then have Brady in the 2nd paired with whatever was available in the 5th.

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I don't pick based on other teams because that only screws up my team. If Brady slips to the 3rd and someone else "stacks" their team. Oh well.

I look at it this way. I'd rather have a very good 2nd round RB, or elite 2nd round receiver and get a Ryan or Stafford in the 5th, then have Brady in the 2nd paired with whatever was available in the 5th.

If Stafford falls to the 5th your league needs go be drug tested.

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I don't pick based on other teams because that only screws up my team. If Brady slips to the 3rd and someone else "stacks" their team. Oh well.

I look at it this way. I'd rather have a very good 2nd round RB, or elite 2nd round receiver and get a Ryan or Stafford in the 5th, then have Brady in the 2nd paired with whatever was available in the 5th.

If Stafford falls to the 5th your league needs go be drug tested.

If not him there will be a couple of other very good options available.

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