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Trifecta

ESPN 1-N-Done Playoffs

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Anyone else playing this game? So far, I like the format. It is fun and simple.

I figured it would be fun to have a thread to discuss strategy for this game as the playoffs progress.

Read the rules here if you aren't playing but are curious: http://games.espn.go.com/nba-playoffs-1-n-done/2013/en/

In a nutshell, you want to play studs on teams that you think won't advance to the next round since each round is worth more points.

My must plays this round are: Harden, Curry, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. The Rockets, Warriors, Lakers and Bucks are the only teams that I feel are absolute locks to lose their series. I'll be playing those guys first while I watch the developments in the other series.

The next group of guys would look like this: Paul Pierce, Garnett, Jeff Green, Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Boozer as the Celtics, Bulls and Hawks are also looking like first round exits, but could claw back.

Those last few days of the first round will be teams going into games 6 and 7 and will be where the most strategy in this game will occur. Each subsequent round will also have much less clear cut decisions as teams become more evenly matched.

My plays so far:

4/20: Steph Curry- 19 pts, 4 reb, 9 asts for 32 total points

4/21: Monta Ellis- 22 pts, 4 reb, 3 asts for 29 total points

Post yours

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I'm playing this game as well. I agree; I really like the very simple setup after a season of analyzing lots of statistics, and it keeps me invested in the NBA playoffs when otherwise, I may just ignore it.

And I agree with you about the strategy, by keying on guys who are on teams that will likely be first round exits like Milwaukee, the Lakers and Golden State. I'm not convinced about Houston losing in the first round, but I'll likely wait a few games to make that decision, to see how their series is going. That said, I do agree about Boston and Chicago looking like very possible first round exits. Looks like we went the same way regarding Sunday's games with choosing Monta Ellis.

My plays so far:

4/20 - Brook Lopez, BKN - 28 pts

4/21 - Monta Ellis, MIL - 29 pts

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yes, same thing as drive

so far i've picked

4/20 - David Lee - 26 pts

4/21 - Pau Gasol - 38 pts

a surprising number of people have picked some combination of carmelo, lebron, and durant so far. seems like even a cursory glance at the rules might dissuade people from picking those guys but i guess i not.

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Harden is gonna explode for at least one game this series and get the Rockets a win. My prediction is game 3 in Houston.

And congrats to those of you who managed to use David Lee before he went down :(

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UGH i picked Jeff Green day 1 and he popped off (against my knicks?! yes, i am insane) but I forgot to pick the 2nd day and got a 0. Bullocks.

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Are you picking the best players of the likely losing 1st round teams in games 1 and 2 or are you waiting for them to have a home game?

So far I picked Klay Thompson and Steve Blake just to save the stars for their home games.

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Well, there are only 14 days of round one games. I wouldn't consider steve blake a strong enough option to use.

My 14 would be monta ellis, jennings, curry, harden, pau, dwight, boozer, horford, smoove, teague, paul pierce, jeff green, garnett just off the top of my head.

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Well, there are only 14 days of round one games. I wouldn't consider steve blake a strong enough option to use.

My 14 would be monta ellis, jennings, curry, harden, pau, dwight, boozer, horford, smoove, teague, paul pierce, jeff green, garnett just off the top of my head.

This. Obviously it depends on who you think will win and lose in the first round, I would have to put Marc Gasol up there too if you think they're going down.

My pick today is Boozer. They are leaning heavily on him and he has been on a tear.

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The way I see things, I lose far less by playing Blake in the 1st round than by not being able to play Horford for instance in the 2nd.

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yes, same thing as drive

so far i've picked

4/20 - David Lee - 26 pts

4/21 - Pau Gasol - 38 pts

a surprising number of people have picked some combination of carmelo, lebron, and durant so far. seems like even a cursory glance at the rules might dissuade people from picking those guys but i guess i not.

Lucky are those who picked Lee on the first day of the playoffs!

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The way I see things, I lose far less by playing Blake in the 1st round than by not being able to play Horford for instance in the 2nd.

but there are more players than Blake who are going to be eliminated in the first round who you will not be able to play is the point.

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yes, same thing as drive

so far i've picked

4/20 - David Lee - 26 pts

4/21 - Pau Gasol - 38 pts

a surprising number of people have picked some combination of carmelo, lebron, and durant so far. seems like even a cursory glance at the rules might dissuade people from picking those guys but i guess i not.

Lucky are those who picked Lee on the first day of the playoffs!

I agree with this. I was very close to choosing Lee, but figured Curry was still en fuego and I was planning on saving Lee until Game 3 at home for the warriors.

I'm playing Boozer tonight. It was either going to be him, Deng or Nate Rob. The Bulls are going down without a healthy Noah to anchor that defense.

I think the Grizzlies players will become solid options to play in the coming days, but I still think it's close between those two teams. If the Clips win tonight, I'll strongly consider playing Gasol in game 3 or 4.

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Im really glad there's a thread for this, is anyone else playing for money? Let's try to keep this thread active and useful. Im coming here looking for the less obvious good plays.

Trifecta nailed the strategy pretty well, so let's build off that. It's also CRUCIAL to look at the schedule. Go to the espn weekly schedule or something similar, and see which teams are playing which days. There will be days with fewer games, so it's advantageous to save your studs-on-losing-teams for those days, especially if your opponent(s) have already picked them. The schedule may also affect which guys you want to save for later or use sooner because of the fluctuating depth of the field.

There can be as few as 0 or 1 games on Tuesday, April 30th. If you successfully save a stud-on-losing-team for that day, you stand to gain on your opponent who could have fewer good options that you.

It's not so easy to plan ahead, but I think it's going to separate the smart pickers from those who are flying by the seat of their pants. Personally, I look at the schedule and make a list of the guys im looking at for each of the next 12 days. Then, I can start to see how the puzzle fits together (i.e., save Boozer for a few days later, slide Deron up to open that slot).

The schedule will become much more important in the later rounds i suspect, since there will be even fewer options.

So far I went:

4/20- Lee

4/21- Monta

4/22- Zach Randolph (today)

Who are your sneaky picks for today and tomorrow?i like either Zbo, MGasol, or Boozer today.

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yes, same thing as drive

so far i've picked

4/20 - David Lee - 26 pts

4/21 - Pau Gasol - 38 pts

a surprising number of people have picked some combination of carmelo, lebron, and durant so far. seems like even a cursory glance at the rules might dissuade people from picking those guys but i guess i not.

Very strong start for you. You are one of only a small percentage of players to go get a game out of Lee before he went down.

I think it's pretty funny to look at the leaderboard right now. It's filled with people who went with Melo on saturday and Paul George or Lebron James yesterday. It's a whose-who of people that either didn't bother to read the rules or don't know the first thing about the NBA.

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People who picked Lee the first day are lucky, but unlucky. Lucky that they got him before injury, but unlucky that he only gave them 3 quarters of production. Im behind the pace because of Lee, not that its a big deal this early.

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Im really glad there's a thread for this, is anyone else playing for money? Let's try to keep this thread active and useful. Im coming here looking for the less obvious good plays.

Trifecta nailed the strategy pretty well, so let's build off that. It's also CRUCIAL to look at the schedule. Go to the espn weekly schedule or something similar, and see which teams are playing which days. There will be days with fewer games, so it's advantageous to save your studs-on-losing-teams for those days, especially if your opponent(s) have already picked them. The schedule may also affect which guys you want to save for later or use sooner because of the fluctuating depth of the field.

There can be as few as 0 or 1 games on Tuesday, April 30th. If you successfully save a stud-on-losing-team for that day, you stand to gain on your opponent who could have fewer good options that you.

It's not so easy to plan ahead, but I think it's going to separate the smart pickers from those who are flying by the seat of their pants. Personally, I look at the schedule and make a list of the guys im looking at for each of the next 12 days. Then, I can start to see how the puzzle fits together (i.e., save Boozer for a few days later, slide Deron up to open that slot).

The schedule will become much more important in the later rounds i suspect, since there will be even fewer options.

So far I went:

4/20- Lee

4/21- Monta

4/22- Zach Randolph (today)

Who are your sneaky picks for today and tomorrow?i like either Zbo, MGasol, or Boozer today.

Yes, I'm playing for money as well. Only way to do it IMO. Trying to get my revenge for losing in the finals, take that bad taste out of my mouth.

I agree with your choices for tonight in Zbo, Gasol and Boozer. I'm going with Boozer because I place the likelihood the Bulls advance lower than the likelihood the Grizzlies advance. I think Zbo is a relatively safe play, but I still think the Grizzlies could put up a fight and push this series to the brink.

For tomorrow night, I like Celtics players and Hawks players. Horford could be a really strong play if Josh Smith is out or limited

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You're a day ahead on the hawks Trifecta, but I'm definitely going Horford or Pau on 4/24.

On 4/23 I agree about Celtics (Green or Pierce), with the bucks guards as a second option.

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Since different people will pick and save different players, it might be a good idea to compile some sort of daily rankings. Talking about a couple players each day will become less meaningful as we get deeper into this thing.

It could be as easy as copying the daily available players and adjusting based on teams that are expected to lose.

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This is my crackpot attempt at a daily ranking adjusted for late round strategy. I hope it inspires someone to do a better job.

Tuesday, April 23

1. Stephen Curry

2. Paul Pierce

3. Brandon Jennings

4. Monta Ellis

5. Jeff Green

6. Klay Thompson

Wednesday, April 24

1. Harden

2. Horford

3. Pau Gasol

4. Dwight Howard

5. Jeff Teague

6. Chandler Parsons

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when teams lose has to be factored into the rankings.

in other words, im making sure i use monta ellis and brandon jennings before i use, say, a Celtic, Hawk, or Grizzly just because I find it much more likely that the Bucks will get swept (and thus put Monta and Jennings out of use) over the other teams losing as quicky....any of the Celtics or Hawks or Grizz might get swept asl well but I think the likelihood (at least as of right now) of the series outcomes could be something like this:

Heat over Bucks in 4

Thunder over Rockets in 4-5

Nuggs over Dubs in 4-5

Pacers over Hawks in 5-6

Spurs over Lakers in 5-6

Knicks over Celts in 6-7

Clips-Grizz pick 'em

Nets-Bulls pick 'em

Obviously, this information will change daily but I think its important in the rankings system to guess the right teams to lose first (and thus using those studs first).

Any thoughts?

Right now I have used:

Curry (32 pts)

Harden (28 pts)

Boozer (27 pts)

My plan:

Monta (4/23)

Pau (4/24)

Jennings (4/25)

Howard (4/26)

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when teams lose has to be factored into the rankings.

in other words, im making sure i use monta ellis and brandon jennings before i use, say, a Celtic, Hawk, or Grizzly just because I find it much more likely that the Bucks will get swept (and thus put Monta and Jennings out of use) over the other teams losing as quicky....any of the Celtics or Hawks or Grizz might get swept asl well but I think the likelihood (at least as of right now) of the series outcomes could be something like this:

Heat over Bucks in 4

Thunder over Rockets in 4-5

Nuggs over Dubs in 4-5

Pacers over Hawks in 5-6

Spurs over Lakers in 5-6

Knicks over Celts in 6-7

Clips-Grizz pick 'em

Nets-Bulls pick 'em

Obviously, this information will change daily but I think its important in the rankings system to guess the right teams to lose first (and thus using those studs first).

Any thoughts?

Right now I have used:

Curry (32 pts)

Harden (28 pts)

Boozer (27 pts)

My plan:

Monta (4/23)

Pau (4/24)

Jennings (4/25)

Howard (4/26)

My plays look similar to yours, except I went ahead and used Monta Ellis and saved Harden for probably game 3.

You bring up an excellent point that has been implied by some but not explicitly stated yet: the quicker a series ends, the more important it will be to use the studs from the losing team early in the round. That's my reason behind using Monta last night and Jennings tomorrow, taking a strictly conservative approach.

I have to say, the Bulls looked like a completely different team out there, and the popular decision to play Boozer tonight may backfire if the Bulls can hold home court or even win 2 games in CHI.

Tonight left tough decisions because both of these games are 4 vs 5 seeds, and both could go either way at this point despite how dominant the Clips and Nets looked in game 1.

The safest plays are Bucks, Rockets, Warriors and Lakers players. They should be used up wherever possible while we wait to see how the other series play out if you want to stay as conservative as possible (which seems like a good strategy, at least in the first round).

I'm using Jennings tomorrow night.

So far:

Curry: 32

Monta: 29

Boozer: 27 (hoping the Bulls don't advance)

Jennings tomorrow night

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This is my crackpot attempt at a daily ranking adjusted for late round strategy. I hope it inspires someone to do a better job.

Tuesday, April 23

1. Stephen Curry

2. Paul Pierce

3. Brandon Jennings

4. Monta Ellis

5. Jeff Green

6. Klay Thompson

Wednesday, April 24

1. Harden

2. Horford

3. Pau Gasol

4. Dwight Howard

5. Jeff Teague

6. Chandler Parsons

I think your wednesday rankings look good, but I'd definitely adjust tuesday to place monta and jennings ahead of paul pierce, and you could make an argument for ranking them ahead of Curry for the same reason: I'm fairly confident, like most basketball fans, that the Warriors will not advance, but it certainly is less of a lock than the Bucks not advancing. You are going to have to use Monta and Jennings early which bumps them up the priority and thus the rankings.

Bottom line: Celtics have a MUCH better shot at advancing than the Bucks, so that should bump Pierce down to 4th IMO. I'm still fine with Curry at 1 because the smart money says the Warriors aren't going to advance and he is the biggest stud playing tomorrow night from a losing team.

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