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Doug Martin 2013 Season Outlook

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Im curious how the "Muscle Hampster" will do this year, curious if he will become a bit more of a focal point on that offense as he has the wheels to do so. However, he did drop off a bit at the end of last year.

What do you guys think about Dougie this year?

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To me he is an interesting case study going into the summer:

Resume - when you are looking to draft a RB, you want a guy who essentially has the workload, there are not too many 3-down backs left in the NFL, he is one, so if you are looking to spend a 1st round pick on a RB who has 3-down load, he is one of them.

Consistency - where I worry about him or think he might be overrated is that when you look and say "He was the No.2 Fantasy RB last year in average points per week and total points" which is true, however both of those are heavily skewed by probably the best back to back weeks maybe ever by a fantasy RB. In my league which gives length of TD bonus, he had something like 107 points in two weeks, 40-45 in two weeks would be really really good. He almost tripled that - which will likely NEVER happen again. Reality is if you threw out the bye weeks and he played Arian Foster head up each week last year in the 11 weeks they both played, Martin's record vs Foster would of been 3-8, against guys who are later 1st, 2nd, 3rd round types like a Marshawn Lynch or a Trent Richardson, he was 5-6, thats basically a coin flip.

So for me, I like the guy, I love the fact that he is a 3-down back in an era where there arent many, but I need to see a year of consistent week in week out production before I would spend anything higher than a late 1st on him. Fantasy Football is a week to week head to head sport for the most part, so scoring 107 points in two weeks is awesome, but I would rather have 107 spread out consistently over 5 weeks.

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I think you're going to see roughly the same stats but with more scoring consistancy, how many 220+/3td games do even the great RB have in their career?

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No hesitation to take him at #3, maybe even #2. Improvements on defense can only help...as one problem with the Bucs last year was turning the game into a track meet.

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Plus he gets Nicks back on the line,And I believe they had another starter out. Wouldn't surprise me at all of he was the top scoring back this season.

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Plus he gets Nicks back on the line,And I believe they had another starter out. Wouldn't surprise me at all of he was the top scoring back this season.

I think this is being overlooked by the doubters. The addition of Nicks is huge for Martins prospects this coming season.

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He also didn't have Davin Joseph (injured in preseason). Davin is probably one of the top ten guards in the league, excellent player with two Pro Bowls to his name.

Nicks and Joseph are the strength of the line, and they never played a single game together. Put both of these guys in front of Martin and he will be even better this year.

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Im curious how the "Muscle Hampster" will do this year, curious if he will become a bit more of a focal point on that offense

He averaged 23.0 total touches per game last season. I don't know if he'll become much more of a focal point than that.

He's a legit first rounder, though. I could justify taking him as early as 5th.

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Im curious how the "Muscle Hampster" will do this year, curious if he will become a bit more of a focal point on that offense

He averaged 23.0 total touches per game last season. I don't know if he'll become much more of a focal point than that.

He's a legit first rounder, though. I could justify taking him as early as 5th.

don't see why you couldn't take him 3rd without questioning it

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Im curious how the "Muscle Hampster" will do this year, curious if he will become a bit more of a focal point on that offense

He averaged 23.0 total touches per game last season. I don't know if he'll become much more of a focal point than that.

He's a legit first rounder, though. I could justify taking him as early as 5th.

don't see why you couldn't take him 3rd without questioning it

I actually wouldn't have a huge issue with anybody selecting him third. It just comes down to preference in that 3-5 range with Lynch, Martin, and Rice all acceptable choices.

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Im curious how the "Muscle Hampster" will do this year, curious if he will become a bit more of a focal point on that offense

He averaged 23.0 total touches per game last season. I don't know if he'll become much more of a focal point than that.

He's a legit first rounder, though. I could justify taking him as early as 5th.

don't see why you couldn't take him 3rd without questioning it

I actually wouldn't have a huge issue with anybody selecting him third. It just comes down to preference in that 3-5 range with Lynch, Martin, and Rice all acceptable choices.

i just think the ravens didnt use rice enough last year and could be playing from behind more this season because i honestly dont think they will be much more than 7-9 or 8-8. also im scared that christine michael eventually cuts into lynch's workload

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Martin will be the #1 ff ppr rb this year. He is Schiano's "guy" and the coach likes to feed his stud rb the rock. I don't think he's a committee back type coach. Factor in that kick a** OL and I'm drinking the koolaid on Martin being #1.

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i feel like it's mandatory to draft AP #1, but top fantasy backs rarely repeat ... and there are things pointing in martin's favor ...

[also loving jamaal charles this year ... ]

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What was his YPC with nicks and Joseph in the lineup? Anybody know?

Joseph was never in the lineup, he went down in preseason. doug martin #1 rb?

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if freeman steps up (better offense) ... i think martin will destroy all non-QBs in total points (even ap/tron).

he's getting 2 of the best OL in the league back in front of him, the line should not only be "improved" - it could be dominant if they return to form.

i'm seriously thinking about having martin #1 on my board ... although i still feel like AP has to be the pick. i like martin better than foster this year, that i know.

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Freeman won't be the QB, if the reports coming out of training camp are to be believed. Coaches there like Glennon.

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Only thing worrying about Martin is the schedule, looks a bit tough early in the season. Tampa Bay might find themselves playing catch-up in a bunch of those games.

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2 TDs since Thanksgiving. Anyone worried about that? Whether it's Freeman or Glennon I'm also not exactly confident in either QB. He's definitely top-10, but I'm hesistant to start calling him a top-3 back right now with the amount of uncertainty.

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Chasing Tds has always led to disappointment for me in the past, though I still tend to do it from time to time, using yards as a baseline is probably better. I will say I think it'll be hard for Martin to be better than the 1,900 total yards he had last year. But he does have both his guards back now, so at worst I still see him having 1,600-1,700 total yards, 8-10 Tds. The schedule is tougher with the Saints and Patriots in the first 3 weeks and the Seahawks later, plus the 49ers in week 15, so that's a slight concern to me.

Just keep in mind the guy had 5 games of over 128 rushing yards (not including the receiving yards in those games) last year and 5 more games of at least 100 total yards (rush/receiving) last season. That's 10 games with at least 100 total yards or better, and so that only leaves 6 games with less than 100 total yards and in a few of those he scored TDs to make up for that..

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As far as TD's, typically people are referring to goal-line carries.

The concern going into last season was that in any sort of timeshare, people were worried that Blount would be the goal-line battering ram. That wasn't quite the reality, though he did get 2 TDs during the first several weeks (I think it might have been more a factor of Martin needing a breather, Blount just happened to get in the game in the change-of-pace role, not necessarily as a goal-line role specifically).

Over the last 7 games, Blount had just 5 carries (0 TDs). Those carries were actually all during just two weeks of that span (1 carry during week 14, and 4 carries during week 15). Blount didn't touch the ball at all those other weeks.

So while some people might misleadingly suggest that Blount leaving should fix that TD drought, it should be noted that Blount was almost certainly not the cause of it whatsoever during those post-Thanksgiving weeks.

I honestly don't doubt Martin's ability, and his offensive line being healthy should only help him. I'm just still not convinced that the Bucs offense as a whole is good enough to consistently get into "RB scoring position".

Let me put it this way, there's, to me, two types of RB's. Your speed backs, those are your homerun hitters, can score from anywhere on the field. They're the ones that always have the potential to break a 60, 70, 80+ yard run/play. Jahvid Best, Chris Johnson, David Wilson, C.J. Spiller, etc.

Then you have your Ray Rice, your MJD, your Trent Richardson, your Doug Martin. These kinds of backs can get big gains on occasion, but that's not what you typically expect from their skillset. You typically expect volume of carries out of these types of RB's, that's why you draft them.

The "volume of carries" RB's typically are used as their team's goal-line / red-zone back. The problem is, if their offense isn't good enough to frequent the red-zone, their massive TD potential vanishes.

Think of it like Jamaal Charles. He had 1,500+ rushing yards, practically 1,750 combined yards, but scored merely 5 TDs last season. A lot of that had to do with their offense not being good enough as a whole to consistently drive down the field into scoring position.

That's what I fear holds back Doug Martin's maximum upside, and what I fear gives him a better chances of regressing slightly statistically speaking, as opposed to topping his performance last season.

I'm not convinced that VJax and Mike Williams is enough to consistently get them into scoring position. VJax has never had double-digit TD's in his entire career, yet averaged a massive 19.1 Yards-Per-Catch last season. Because he's used primarily as a hail-mary type receiver. That's why he's always been labeled by the fantasy community as the most prominent boom-or-bust WR.

However, when he does catch the 50-yard hail mary pass for a TD, Doug Martin doesn't even get a shot at the goal-line TD that drive.

When VJax doesn't catch the 30-40+ yard bomb, that may similarly result in the end of that drive, meaning Doug Martin still doesn't get a shot at the goal-line.

Almost like an inherent Catch-22 of having VJax as your NFL team's #1 WR. RB TD stats could suffer ultimately.

But most importantly, I'd hazard to guess that the real problem is that VJax is an elite WR, Martin is probably an elite RB, Mike Williams is a pretty solid WR2. But Josh Freeman simply isn't good enough to call a QB1.

Freeman will be the cog that holds back the rest of the offense, unless he takes a massive leap forward, which I simply do not expect him to do. This could cause problems with the rest of the offense for fantasy purposes next season, if they decide to audition Glennon if he has a strong camp, assuming they already have resigned themselves to NOT extending Freeman's contract.

Changing QB's midseason could be a positive things, or it could tank the fantasy value of the star players on the Bucs offense: VJax and Doug Martin.

Only time will tell, but I find it highly risky in that sense to spend an early-first round pick on Martin because of the question marks with his surrounding cast. It's a somewhat unique situation that the other top RB's don't really have to deal with.

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Only time will tell, but I find it highly risky in that sense to spend an early-first round pick on Martin because of the question marks with his surrounding cast. It's a somewhat unique situation that the other top RB's don't really have to deal with.

Not to get off the Martin topic but don't other RBs still have their own negatives to deal with as well. For instance, Rice has Pierce plus Flacco getting that huge contract which makes me believe they'll run a bit less this season. McCoy has Brown to take some carries, and a new system which no one knows how that will work exactly, not to mention QB is an issue in PHI typically or it has been. J Charles will run less, probably catch more but never has had more than 8 total TDs in a single season. T-Rich was injured quite a bit last year with a 3.6 ypc (not that I'm saying he isnt better than that ypc), with a not so great QB to boot. Spiller still has Fred Jackson there and a rookie QB or Kolb starting?

If we were to get picky here all these RB have some small question marks, but other than the hypothetical that Freeman is a so-so QB, what would make any of those RBs more appealing than Martin?

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